Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:06 UTC
Downtrend, lows decelerating · RSI 35 · price 1.39617
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4134; converging falling wedge.
USDCAD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4134 window top, with the pair dropping below 1.40 after last week's BoC hike and firm oil. Softer US yields and the Chicago PMI miss added pressure. Lower highs at the 1.4068 swing high, the 1.4014 lower high and the 1.3979 prior high are falling faster than the lows, which have edged down to the 1.3941 swing low. That narrowing shape forms a falling wedge, with ATR(14) contracting to about 27 pips. Price opened the week with a small gap below Friday's close, under both EMA20 and EMA50, and the EMA20 is holding below the EMA50.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.3979 prior high and wedge resistance would mark a wedge break; the 50% retracement of the last leg sits near 1.4005
- Reclaiming the 1.4014 lower high would break the lower-high sequence; the 1.4068 swing high marks the top of the last leg
- Failure at the 1.3941 swing low extends lower lows along wedge support, toward the 1.3900 round number
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
- BoC Governor Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the wedge structure
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, downside momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.39763
Lower highs and lower lows into a falling wedge.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4134 window high. The latest leg ran from the 1.4068 swing high to a 1.3941 swing low, with CAD supported by oil above $103 and last week's BoC hike while falling US yields capped USD. Price has since narrowed into a falling wedge, with the wedge top near 1.3980 and the wedge base near 1.3940. RSI made a higher low against the 1.3968 prior low, showing bullish divergence, and the last bar rebounded to 1.3976 just under the ema20 at ~1.3990. ATR(14) has edged up to ~25 pips, with both EMAs overhead and EMA20 below EMA50.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the wedge top and the ema20 near 1.3990 would test the 1.4014 lower high; a break there ends the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
- Loss of the 1.3968 prior low again would put the wedge base back in play
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read via yields
- BoC Governor Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the wedge structure