Weekend gap down mostly filled; inside Friday's 1.3941–1.3987 range.
The Sunday open gapped about 18 pips below the 1.3976 Friday close, after Friday's CAD-firm slide on oil above $103, and early Asia has since filled most of the gap. Price is stalling under the 1.3974 open high. The 1.3958 sunday low marks the gap base, and it held at roughly the 56% retracement of the Friday recovery from the 1.3941 friday low.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3979, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3979 friday close completes the gap fill and puts the 1.3987 friday high in play
Loss of the 1.3958 sunday low exposes the rising lows line near 1.3949 and the 1.3941 friday low
ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and oil headlines could materially shift this read
Early Asia session opened about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close. Buyers stepped in at the 1.3958 gap low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Friday's NY rally from 1.3941. Price has rebounded to 1.3971 under the 1.3974 asia high, so the gap is only partly filled. CAD's firm-oil backdrop and Friday's soft-yield USD tone frame the open.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3979, 1.3987
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3979 friday high fills the weekend gap and opens the 1.3987 prior high
Rejection at the 1.3974 asia high keeps the gap open and the session range intact
Failure to hold the 1.3958 gap low exposes the 1.3949 london low and the 1.3941 friday low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC Monday and oil/Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Sideways, early Asia rebound · RSI 59 · price 1.39696
Friday range 1.3941–1.3987; Sunday gap from 1.3976 to 1.3959 almost filled.
Sunday's open gapped about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close to a 1.3958 gap low, which held near the 50–61.8% fib of Friday's NY rally from the 1.3941 friday low. Early Asia has nearly filled the gap with a push to the 1.3974 sunday high, while the pair sits near mid-September lows on firm oil and a softer USD.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3979, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3979 friday high completes the gap fill and puts the 1.3987 friday asia high back in play
Rejection at the 1.3974 sunday high, followed by a break below the 1.3958 gap low, would expose the 1.3941 friday low
Thin Asia session liquidity until London; US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) is the next scheduled driver
23:02 UTC
Recovering from weekly-open gap, inside Friday NY range · RSI 60 · price 1.39725
Gap low held near 61.8% fib, retesting Friday close.
The weekly open gapped about 18 pips lower to a 1.3958 gap low, near the 61.8% fib of Friday's NY rebound. Price has since climbed back to 1.3972 in thin early-Asia trade and is closing the gap toward Friday's 1.3976 close, still under the 1.3979 NY high. CAD went into the weekend firm on oil above $103, and Friday's 1.3941 day low marks the bottom of that range.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3987
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3979 NY high completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.3987 day high
A break back below the 1.3958 gap low reopens the 1.3941 day low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Mixed; late-Friday rebound unwound by the opening gap · RSI 48 · price 1.39579
Sunday gap lower, price between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Friday rebound.
Sunday's open gapped about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close. That erased most of the late-NY rebound from the 1.3941 Friday low, and price is now sitting just above the 61.8% fib of that move in thin early-Asia trade. Friday's slide tracked firm oil and softer US yields; the Canada GDP miss lifted the pair only briefly before the NY low printed.
Support: 1.3955, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3976, 1.3991
What it said to watch
Gap fill toward 1.3976 would restore the late-Friday rebound structure; the 1.3964 Sunday high is the first test
Loss of the 61.8% fib and the 1.3950 swing lows exposes the 1.3941 Friday low, near the cited wedge-bottom area
Prior high at 1.3991 caps the window; acceptance above it would negate the gap-down read
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) sits beyond this session but could reset intraday structure
22:31 UTC
Friday downtrend, flat after weekend gap · RSI 49 · price 1.39587
Gap down into the middle of Friday's late bounce; tight early Asia band.
The Asia session opened about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close. The gap gave back half of the late-Friday bounce from the 1.3941 friday low, and price is now holding a thin band between the 1.3958 gap low and the 1.3964 sunday high. Price is pinned near the 50–61.8% retrace of that rally with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and both EMAs flat overhead, consistent with CAD support from oil above $103.
Support: 1.3958, 1.39556, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39635, 1.39763
What it said to watch
A close below the 61.8% fib at 1.3955 reopens the friday low at 1.3941
A gap fill toward 1.3976 needs a close through the sunday high at 1.3964
Thin early-Asia liquidity makes the first range unreliable until London open
Weekend oil and Iran headlines, plus Monday's US ISM at 15:00 UTC, could reset this read
22:16 UTC
Two-way, gap-down open within Friday's range · RSI 53 · price 1.39631
Weekend gap down off Friday's late rebound; Friday's 1.3941–1.3992 range intact.
The week opened with an ~18-pip gap down from Friday's 1.3976 close to a 1.3959 gap low. That unwound about 40% of Friday's late-NY rebound off the 1.3941 friday low, and price is sitting near the 38.2% fib at 1.3964 in thin Asia-open trade. The gap fits CAD firmness on $103+ oil and softer US yields. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39495, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39763, 1.39916
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.3976 fills the weekend gap and reopens the 1.3992 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3959 gap low exposes the 1.3950 midday low, then the 1.3941 friday low near the wedge-bottom area
Mon 14:30 UTC Canada S&P PMI and 15:00 UTC US ISM Mfg (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, late-Friday rebound erased by Sunday gap · RSI 47 · price 1.39587
Lower lows across Friday sessions; weekly open gapped back below rebound midpoint.
Friday stepped lower each session: 1.3959 in Asia, 1.3949 at the london low, then 1.3941 at the friday low in NY. The flat Canada GDP print sparked a brief spike to 1.3977. CAD firmness on oil and soft US yields framed the slide, and a late-Friday rebound to 1.3979 was wiped out by a ~17-pip gap lower at the Sunday open to 1.3959, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the friday rebound fib.
Support: 1.3949, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39763, 1.3991
What it said to watch
A move back to 1.3976 closes the gap fill and restores Friday's late rebound
M15 close below the 1.3949 london low reopens the 1.3941 friday low
Reclaiming the 1.3991 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Thin Sunday liquidity until Asia/London; ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HL chain from 1.3941 testing NY high into Friday close.
After the flat Canada GDP print failed to lift CAD, the NY afternoon sell-off bottomed at the 1.3941 session low. Price then built higher lows at the 1.3953 swing low and the 1.3960 higher low, pushing into the 1.3978 NY high at the Friday close, in line with the late-Friday USD recovery the digest describes. RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) around 7 pips show the move came on thin late-session ranges, with the 1.3992 Asian high the next reference above.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3992
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 1.3978 NY high puts the 1.3992 Asian high back in view
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3960 higher low invalidates the late-session HL chain
Loss of the 1.3953 swing low reopens the 1.3941 session low
Weekend gap risk at the reopen on oil or Middle East headlines
Mon 15:00 UTC US ISM Manufacturing (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off the day low, testing the NY high · RSI 62 · price 1.39763
Higher lows from 1.3941 into the weekly close, inside the 1.3941–1.3992 day range.
Lower US yields and a softer USD drove a London-NY slide to a 1.3941 day low, a dip under the recent ~1.3963 lows. Late NY hours then built higher lows off a rising tl, lifting the pair back to the 1.3978 NY high into the weekly close. RSI(14) sits near 62, and the final bar briefly traded above the NY high but closed beneath it.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3992
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3978 NY high opens the path to the 1.3992 asia high
A break of the rising tl near 1.3960 shifts focus to the 1.3953 swing low and the 1.3941 day low
A Monday open gap away from 1.3976 would reset this intraday structure
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 1.3941 low · RSI 65 · price 1.39763
HH/HL chain since the 16:45 UTC sweep; testing the 1.3978 NY high into the weekly close.
After London close, USDCAD swept below the 1.3949 london low to a 1.3941 session low, near the ~1.3940 wedge bottom in the digest. It then built higher highs and higher lows through late NY as the USD clawed back ground. The final bar of the week tagged the 1.3978 ny high, just under Scotiabank's ~1.3980 fair value, with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3991
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3978 ny high clears the NY session top and opens the path to the 1.3991 asia high
A break of the 1.3960 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain
Failure back through the 1.3941 session low reopens the wedge-bottom area
Weekend gap risk, then Mon 15:00 UTC ISM Mfg (f/c 54.7) and Tue 16:00 UTC Macklem could reset this read
21:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off NY low · RSI 65 · price 1.39763
Higher lows from 1.3941, testing NY high inside day range.
NY hours printed a 1.3941 day low after the flat Canada GDP print, then a recovery of higher lows carried price into the Friday close to retest the 1.3978 NY high. Price is still inside the 1.3941–1.3992 day range, with the Asian high capping the top and RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.3971, 1.3960, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3992
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 NY high opens the 1.3992 Asian high
Loss of the 1.3971 pivot and the rising lows line puts the 1.3960 swing low (50% of the recovery) back in play
Break below the 1.3941 day low resumes the London-NY lower-low sequence
Weekend gap risk at the reopen; Monday Canada PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read