USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 2 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:31 UTC
Uptrend off the NY low, pausing at rollover · RSI 47 · price 1.39857
HH/HL chain from the 1.3951 double bottom; pullback holding 1.3980 just under the Asian high.
NY session put in a double bottom at 1.3951, matching the London low, then climbed in higher highs and higher lows through the Asian high to a 1.3994 session high as the USD slid with oil. The post-NY pullback held the 1.3980 pullback low on rising support, and price is now retesting the Asian high at 1.3987 in thin rollover trade with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3994 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
A break of the 1.3980 pullback low and rising support exposes the 1.3970 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Losing 1.3970 reopens the 1.3951 double bottom
US midterm results overnight and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3950 then HH/HL chain; pulling back toward 1.3994 day high.
Monday's London low at 1.3950 was retested in the NY session around the 15:00 UTC ISM release. That double bottom held as softer USD and the oil slide set the ISM beat aside, and the pair has stepped higher since to a 1.3994 day high. The late low at 1.3980 held in thin post-NY trade, and the last bar recovered to 1.3989 just under the round number at 1.4000.
Support: 1.3980, 1.39695, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 day high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 1.3980 late low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3970 higher low
Break below the 1.3950 double bottom would negate the recovery structure
Tue: JOLTS 15:00 UTC, Macklem 16:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
Double low at 1.3950, higher lows since; post-rollover dip held 1.3980.
London's drop and the ISM-time slide at 15:00 UTC both held the 1.3950 double low. The NY recovery, with oil sliding on US-Iran diplomacy headlines, cleared the Asian high near 1.3987 and set a day high at 1.3994 just shy of the 1.40 round number. Early Asia trade held the 1.3980 rollover low and the higher-low line; RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3994 day high puts the 1.40 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3980 rollover low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3970 higher low
Break of the 1.3950 double low negates the double bottom read
Oil/Iran headlines overnight and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, fading from session high · RSI 41 · price 1.3980
Double bottom at 1.3950, late pullback off 1.3994.
London and NY both dumped to 1.3950, forming a double bottom, with USD soft as oil slid on US-Iran diplomacy and the ISM beat was ignored. The NY rally from 1.3951 stalled with a rejection at the 1.3994 session high below the 1.40 round number. Price faded into rollover to the 38.2% fib at 1.3978 in thin liquidity, RSI(14) near 41 and sitting at EMA50.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3970 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% zone of the NY rally fib and the 1.3950 double bottom
Reclaim of the 1.3994 session high puts the 1.40 round number back in play
US midterms Tue with results overnight, JOLTS 15:00 UTC and Macklem 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back into rollover · RSI 47 · price 1.39808
Double bottom at 1.3950 then HH above Asian high; shallow retrace.
The 15:00 UTC ISM-hour flush to 1.3951 matched the London low for a double bottom. The late-NY rally then cleared the 1.3987 Asian high to a 1.3994 session high as sliding oil weighed on CAD. Into rollover, price has eased under EMA20 and the rising NY line, and is retesting the 38.2% fib near 1.3978.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Hold of the 38.2% fib at 1.3978 keeps the post-double bottom HH/HL sequence intact
Close below the 1.3970 NY swing low unwinds the rally toward the 1.3951 double bottom
Reclaim of the 1.3987 Asian high and 1.3994 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
US midterm results, JOLTS (15:00 UTC) and Macklem (16:00 UTC) Tue could materially shift this read
Double low at 1.3950, late-NY breakout above asian high now retesting.
London and NY both bottomed near the 1.3950 double low, the second during the mixed ISM release, before a late-NY rally cleared the 1.3987 asian high and set a 1.3994 session high. Price has eased to 1.3984 in thin early-Asia trade. It sits on EMA20, just above the 1.3983 swing low and the 23.6% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) back to neutral 53.
Support: 1.39828, 1.39695, 1.39505
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3987 asian high restores the breakout and puts the 1.3994 session high and the 1.4000 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3983 swing low exposes the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 1.3978, then the 1.3970 pullback low
Break below the 1.3950 double low negates the reversal structure
US midterms Tue plus JOLTS (15:00 UTC) and Macklem (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read later in the session
22:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 1.3950, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 1.39847
Double bottom base, HH to 1.3994, retracing below Asian high.
London and NY lows formed a double btm at 1.3950/1.3951, and the NY rally from there cleared the asian high to a 1.3994 session high, with softer oil weighing on CAD. That rally met rejection short of the 1.4000 round number. The post-NY pullback has price at 1.3985, just under the asian high and sitting on the fib 23.6, with RSI(14) cooling to 54.
Support: 1.3984, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.3987 asian high keeps the pullback active toward the 1.3970 swing low near the 50% fib
A close back above the 1.3994 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in view
A break of the 1.3950 double btm negates the intraday base
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Tuesday's US midterms and JOLTS could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3950, higher lows since; Asian range broken higher.
London swept below the Asian range to a 1.3950 day low, and NY retested it around the 15:00 UTC ISM window to form a double bottom. Late NY then ground through the 1.3987 Asian high to a 1.3994 session high despite the soft-USD and oil backdrop. Price is consolidating just under the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.3987, 1.3983, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4000 round number extends the breakout from the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.3983 swing low puts the day-low trendline and the 38.2% fib near 1.3978 in play
Loss of the 1.3951 day low invalidates the double bottom
US midterms Tue and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; oil and US-Iran headlines remain a CAD driver in Asia
21:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 1.39919
Double bottom at 1.3950, higher lows through NY, Asia high broken.
London and NY both tested the 1.3950/1.3951 day low, the second time on the 14:45 UTC S&P PMI miss. That double bottom fed a steady NY climb along a higher-low trendline, through the 1.3987–1.3989 Asia high to a 1.3994 session high into the close, with RSI(14) near 68 and the 1.4000 round number overhead.
Support: 1.3989, 1.3983, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.39944, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3989 Asia high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3983 swing low breaks the NY higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 1.3994 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC), Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) and the US midterms could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off a 1.3950 double low; Asian high broken late NY.
USDCAD put in a double bottom at the 1.3950 day low, first in London and again on the post-ISM flush, as the soft-USD backdrop kept the dollar from holding gains. The NY recovery has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline and cleared the 1.3986 Asian high to print a fresh day high at 1.3993 after NY close, with RSI(14) near 69 and the 1.4000 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.3986, 1.3972, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3986 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
1.4000 round number: area to watch for rejection or break; acceptance above extends the day high
Failure to hold the 1.3972 swing low, below the rising trendline, breaks the higher-low chain
US midterm results overnight and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.3950 double low, capped near 1.3990.
Buyers held the 1.3950 double low twice, in London and again on the post-ISM flush, and the NY rebound has built a clean higher-low chain since, with sliding oil weighing on CAD. Price is stalling just under the 1.3992 session high, below the 1.4000 round number, with the 1.3983 higher low the nearest reference and the 1.3970 swing low below it.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 session high and 1.4000 round number extends the intraday uptrend
Break of the 1.3983 higher low and trendline support ends the HH/HL chain; the 1.3970 swing low sits near the 50% fib of the rebound
US midterm results overnight could gap this read before Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from NY low, pressing 1.40 · RSI 63 · price 1.39896
Higher lows since post-ISM low, fresh session high above Asian high.
The post-ISM drop to 1.3951 matched the London low near 1.3950, and those twin lows held. With USD getting no lift from the data mix, late NY has since built a chain of higher lows (1.3970, then the 1.3983 swing low) into a day high at 1.3992, clearing the Asian high near 1.3987. RSI(14) sits around 63 with price just under the 1.40 round number; the NY rally fib's 38.2% sits near 1.3976.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 day high and 1.4000 round number extends the breakout from the session range
Close below the 1.3983 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the late-NY higher-low chain; 1.3970 higher low is next
Loss of the 1.3950/1.3951 twin lows invalidates the double bottom read
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read during Asia
The US PMI miss early in NY dropped USDCAD to 1.3951, matching the London day low at 1.3950 to form a double bottom. Since then the pair has posted a steady higher-low chain along a rising trendline, helped by the oil slide weighing on CAD. Late in NY it printed a 1.3992 session high but stalled below the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 session high and the 1.4000 round number extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 1.3983 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3970 swing low near the 38.2% NY rally fib
Loss of the 1.3950 day low negates the double bottom
US midterm results overnight and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3951 double bottom, pressing day high.
Monday's day low at 1.3950 from the London session was retested at 1.3951 as the mixed ISM batch hit at 15:00 UTC, forming an intraday double bottom. Late-NY recovery cleared the 1.3981 breakout lvl and printed a 1.3992 session high, just above the Asian and NY-morning highs near 1.3987–1.3989, with a wick showing supply there and RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3992 session high opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3981 breakout lvl puts the 1.3970 swing low and rising trendline back in play
Break below the 1.3950 double btm reverses the intraday recovery read
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read in Asia hours
19:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 71 · price 1.3989
1.3950–1.3990 day range; higher lows off a double bottom.
USDCAD held 1.3950 twice, on the London dip and again on the post-ISM drop as the beat failed to lift USD, leaving a double bottom. Late NY has built higher lows along a rising trendline into a third test of the 1.3989 day high, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 1.40 round number about 11 pips above.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 day high breaks the range and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3970 swing low returns price to mid-range
Failure at the double btm area near 1.3950 would void the recovery structure
US midterm results overnight and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY low · RSI 65 · price 1.39873
Day range 1.3950–1.3989, price retesting range top late NY.
London and NY both found a floor near 1.3950, forming a double bottom. The NY leg since has stacked higher lows at 1.3970 and the 1.3979 swing low, with sliding WTI weighing on CAD. Price is now back at the 1.3989 session high, where the earlier NY push above the Asian high failed.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 session high breaks the day range and opens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3970 higher low breaks the NY leg's higher-low line
Loss of 1.3979 swing low would turn this into a second rejection at the range top
US midterm results overnight and oil headlines could materially shift this read
1.3950–1.3989 day range; higher lows since the 15:00 UTC low, price pressing the range top.
USDCAD formed a double low at 1.3950–1.3951, first in London and again on the drop into the 15:00 UTC ISM release. Since then it has built a higher-low chain through NY and now sits at 1.3982, just under the 1.3989 day high, which also capped the Asian range. Mixed US data and a sliding WTI gave no clean impulse, so the day range is still intact late in the NY session.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 day high breaks the range and completes the double bottom, with the 1.40 handle directly overhead
Failure at 1.3989 keeps the range read intact; loss of the 1.3970 higher low and the HL trendline breaks the NY recovery structure
US midterm results overnight into Asia, then Macklem on Tue 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Intraday range, late-NY recovery from the lows · RSI 59 · price 1.39815
Range 1.3950–1.3989; higher lows since the 15:00 UTC low.
Monday's range runs 1.3950–1.3989. The early-NY push above the Asian high to a 1.3989 day high was a false break. The S&P manufacturing PMI miss drove a NY drop to 1.3951, matching the London low for a double low, and the ISM beat sparked the rebound. Late NY has retraced about 80% of that NY drop on higher lows, with price pressing the 1.3982 swing high and RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3982, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 day high breaks the range and opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3970 higher low puts the 1.3951 double low back in play
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC, then Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) and the US midterms, could materially shift this read
1.3950–1.3989 session range; double bottom near day low, neckline at session high.
Two-sided day. London broke the Asian range low to the 1.3950 day low, then NY made a false break above the 1.3987 Asian high to a 1.3989 session high and reversed about 38 pips to 1.3951, leaving a double bottom. Late NY has retraced roughly 80% of that drop on a higher low at 1.3970, with price at 1.3980 in the fair-value chop area the CAD digest flags.
Support: 1.39695, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.39889, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 session high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.40 psych handle
Failure to hold the 1.3970 higher low returns price to the range middle and puts the 1.3950 day low back in play
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC, then overnight US midterm results, could break the session range
Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; WTI swings on US-Iran headlines remain the CAD driver
Day range 1.3950–1.3989, double bottom at base, price pressing range top.
London swept below the Asian range to 1.3950. The NY retest held at 1.3951 for a double btm, and the rebound has tracked the USD recovery after the ISM Manufacturing beat. Late NY, price has retraced over 78.6% of the 1.3989–1.3951 selloff and is testing the 1.3984 prior pivot, with a higher low in place at 1.3970.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 session high breaks the day range and opens the 1.4000 round number
Break below the 1.3970 higher low violates the recovery trendline and puts the 1.3951 double btm back in play
Rejection at the 1.3984 prior pivot keeps the range read intact
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC; US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
The early-NY slide stalled at 1.3951, matching the London day low near 1.3950. Price has since recovered about 70% of the drop from the 1.3989 day high, past the 61.8% level of the ISM drop fib, as the ISM beat (55.5) lifted USD. Higher lows along the recovery line now sit at 1.3970, with price just above EMA20/50 and capped at the 1.3980 session high.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3980 session high exposes the 1.3989 day high
Loss of the 1.3970 higher low breaks the recovery line and points back to the middle of the range
Break below the 1.3950 day low would negate the double bottom
Fed Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC; midterms and Macklem on Tue are larger event risks
18:02 UTC
Two-way intraday range, recovering off the lows · RSI 52 · price 1.39764
1.3950–1.3989 day range; double low at the floor, higher low at 1.3970.
After the Sunday gap filled, London and NY each flushed to a double low near 1.3950. The ISM beat then lifted the pair back to the 61.8% of the NY drop from the 1.3989 day high. Price is pressing a session cap at 1.3978 off a swing low at 1.3970, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 session cap opens a retest of the 1.3989 day high and the 1.40 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.3970 swing low breaks the NY rising lows and points back to the 1.3950 double low
Fed Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC could shift late-NY flows; Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC
17:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off the lows · RSI 49 · price 1.39762
1.3950–1.3989 day range; double bottom at 1.3950, lower high at 1.3978.
The NY open pushed briefly above the Asian high to a 1.3989 session high, then reversed on the soft S&P PMI and mixed ISM. Price fell to 1.3951 and matched the London low, forming a double bottom. It has since recovered through the 61.8% retracement to 1.3976, with the 1.3978 swing high capping and the 1.3970 swing low holding underneath.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 swing high opens the 1.3989 session high and the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3970 swing low and the rising intraday trendline puts the 1.3950 double bottom back in play
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could break the day range
1.3950–1.3989 session range; double low at the base, lower high at 1.3978.
Monday's 1.3950–1.3989 range is intact. London's false break below the Asian range low and the NY PMI-driven drop both found buyers near 1.3950, forming a double low, and USD retraced most of those losses as the digest describes. The rebound stalled at the 1.3978 rebound high, about 72% of the NY drop, and late in the NY session price sits at 1.3973, pinned between the EMAs with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3951
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 rebound high puts the 1.3989 session high and the 1.40 round number in play
Break of the 1.3970 pullback low and the rebound trendline reopens the 1.3950 double low
Acceptance below 1.3950 voids the double low read and breaks the session range
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could break the range
1.3950–1.3989 day range; double bottom near 1.3950, price mid-range.
After the weekend gap lower, early NY swept the Asian high to the 1.3989 day high, then the soft S&P Global PMI knocked price to 1.3951. That low matched London's to form a double bottom near 1.3950. The ISM beat lifted price back to the 1.3978 bounce high, and late NY now sits on EMA20 around 1.3971 with RSI(14) at 48, mid-range.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 bounce high reopens the 1.3989 day high
Failure at the 1.3958 ny base exposes the 1.3950 double btm; a break there sets a fresh session low
Hold above the 50% retracement of the ny recovery (~1.3965) keeps the higher low intact
Two-way range, recovering off the lows · RSI 47 · price 1.39744
1.3950–1.3989 day range; equal lows at 1.3950, lower high at 1.3978.
After Sunday's gap lower, USDCAD has held a 1.3950–1.3989 range. NY opened with a poke above the Asian high to the 1.3989 day high, which was rejected. The drop that followed retested London's 1.3950 day low on the ISM beat and held, leaving a potential double bottom. Price has since recovered to the 61.8% fib of that NY drop, just under the 1.3978 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3978 swing high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.3989 day high back in play
Loss of the 1.3967 midday low reopens the 1.3950 day low and tests the double bottom read
Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC is minor; Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) and the US midterms are the next material event risk for this range
16:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from day low · RSI 54 · price 1.39774
Wide 1.3950–1.3989 day range, higher lows since 14:00 UTC.
After the weekend gap lower, London broke the Asian low at 1.3958 to a 1.3950 day low. NY then made a false break above the Asian range to a 1.3989 session high before dropping back to 1.3951, a double bottom with the day low. The ISM Manufacturing beat at 15:00 UTC firmed USD, and a higher low chain off 1.3969 has carried price about 70% back up the NY drop into the late NY session.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3984 london high, then 1.3989 session high, breaks the day range to the upside
Break of the higher-low line and 1.3969 higher low reopens the 1.3958 asian low
Loss of the 1.3950 day low invalidates the double bottom
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could shift this read; midterms risk overnight Tue
16:31 UTC
Sideways, rebounding from range lows · RSI 53 · price 1.39721
1.3950–1.3989 day range; failed breaks on both sides of the Asian range.
Price has been held inside a 1.3950–1.3989 range since the weekend gap lower. London and NY both broke the 1.3958 asian low and were bought back from a double low near 1.3950. The second drop came around the mixed US ISM batch, and the NY push to the 1.3989 session high also failed. After London close, price has retraced about 55% of the NY drop and is stalling at the ema50/61.8% zone near 1.3974, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 ema50/61.8% zone puts the 1.3989 session high back in play
Acceptance above 1.3989 breaks the day range and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3958 asian low reopens the 1.3950 double low; a break there ends the range read
Goolsbee remarks this hour and the run-up to Tuesday's midterms and Macklem (16:00 UTC) could shift this read
1.3950–1.3989 intraday range, double low at range base.
The S&P Global PMI miss knocked price 38 pips off the NY high at 1.3989 back to the London low near 1.3950, and buyers stepped in there a second time on the ISM beat. The rebound has recovered the gap open at 1.3958 and sits at the 50% retrace near 1.3970, pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 london low breaks the double bottom and the range base
Acceptance above the 1.3984 london high and 1.3989 ny high opens the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.3958 gap open puts the 1.3950 base back in focus
Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Range 1.3950–1.3989, false break above the Asian high, double bottom at 1.3950.
Sunday's gap lower opened the week. NY then poked above the Asian high to a 1.3989 session high around the ISM beat, but the move failed and price slid back to 1.3951, retesting the London low at 1.3950 to form a double bottom. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of that NY drop near 1.3966, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 1.3951, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 1.3970 reopens the session high at 1.3989
Failure to hold the 1.3950 london low exposes the friday low at 1.3941
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC on December hike odds could shift the USD side of this range
Day range 1.3950–1.3989; NY high failed above the Asian high, now basing near the London low.
NY pushed just through the Asian high to a session high at 1.3989, then failed. A 38-pip drop into the 15:00 UTC ISM print retested the London low near 1.3950, where buyers stepped in again. Price is holding just above the asia low at 1.3958, below the ema20 and stalling at the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop (1.3966). RSI(14) is neutral at 44 as London closes.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3984, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.3950 breaks the day range and opens a new session low
Reclaim of 1.3970 (ema20 / 50% of NY drop fib) returns price to mid-range toward the london high at 1.3984
A second push above the session high at 1.3989 would negate the false-break read
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could jolt USD; midterms (Tue) and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) loom for the next sessions
15:31 UTC
Two-way intraday range, NY leg lower · RSI 39 · price 1.39599
False break above Asian high reversed back to London low.
NY open pushed above the Asian range high to a 1.3989 session high. That move failed and price dropped about 38 pips into the mixed ISM release, holding at 1.3951 just above the 1.3950 London low. Price is basing near 1.3960 with RSI(14) at 39. It sits below the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off at 1.3970 and the 1.3976 Friday close, the level of Sunday's gap.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3976, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 London low breaks the double-tested floor and exposes the 1.3941 Friday low
Reclaim of the 1.3970 50% retrace and the 1.3976 Friday close would neutralise the NY sell-off
Close back above the 1.3989 session high invalidates the false-break read
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday range, sharp NY leg lower · RSI 39 · price 1.39595
1.3950–1.3989 day range; NY top rejected, floor retested.
Pair gapped lower at the open on a softer USD and held a 1.3958–1.3987 Asian range. London flushed to the 1.3951 London low before recovering. NY then swept the Asian high to a 1.3989 day high and reversed 38 pips into the 15:00 UTC ISM window, retesting the London low and closing off it with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3951, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3989
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 London low breaks the day's base and exposes the 1.3941 Friday low
Reclaim of the 1.3970 midday base, the 50% of the NY drop fib, returns price to the middle of the day range
Rejection under the 1.3970 midday base would keep the 1.3989 day high as a confirmed NY lower-high reference
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and ISM digestion could extend the NY move in either direction
False break above Asian high reversed; rising trendline lost, price back in lower half of day range.
Early NY pushed just past the 1.3987 Asian high to a 1.3989 session high, then the false break unwound into a 19-pip drop into the ISM release. That broke the rising trendline off the 1.3950 London low, and price is back near 1.3960, around the 0.786 fib of the London rally, with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3967, 1.3989
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3950 London low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3941 Friday low
M15 close back above the 1.3967 prior pivot would ease the post-rejection pressure
Only a close above the 1.3989 session high negates the false break
Higher lows off London low; rejection just above Asian high.
Monday's softer-USD gap lower was filled in Asia. London then sold to a 1.3950 London low before a V-shaped recovery printed a 1.3967 higher low. NY pushed 2 pips past the Asian high to a 1.3989 session high and was rejected; price now sits at 1.3976 on EMA20/50, near the 38.2% retrace, ahead of ISM.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) could materially shift this read; Goolsbee follows at 16:15 UTC
Failure to hold the 1.3967 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.3950 London low
M15 close above the 1.3989 session high opens the 1.4000 round number
HH/HL chain from London low, capped at Asian high.
The weekend bearish gap to 1.3958 was retraced in Asia. London then sold off from the 1.3987 Asian high to the 1.3950 london low, and price has since printed a higher low at 1.3967. The first hour of NY briefly cleared the Asian high to a 1.3989 day high but was rejected back toward 1.3980, holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC is landing on the current bar
M15 close above the 1.3989 day high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3977 puts the 1.3967 higher low and the 50–61.8% retracement in focus
A break below the 1.3967 higher low ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.3950 london low
Higher lows from London low, capped at the Asian high.
The weekend gap lower to 1.3959 filled in Asia, with the Asian range capped at 1.3987, as a softer USD on Iran diplomacy hopes met falling crude. The London open sold off to the 1.3950 london low before a recovery printed a higher low at 1.3967. The NY open then swept the Asian high to the 1.3989 ny high and pulled back to the 1.3976 ny low; price is now in the upper part of a 1.3950–1.3989 session range, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3967, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 ny high and the 1.4000 round number breaks the session range top
Loss of the 1.3976 ny low, then the 1.3967 higher low, breaks the rising-lows structure and exposes the 1.3950 london low
Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC, US ISM at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low · RSI 60 · price 1.3985
Higher lows since London false break of Asian low; testing Asian range top.
London undercut the 1.3958 asian low to a 1.3950 london low, then reversed. The early-week USD-soft tone did not carry through on this pair. A higher low at 1.3967 and a NY push to a 1.3989 session high put price back at the top of the Asian range, with Sunday's gap long filled and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 session high clears the Asian range top and brings the 1.4000 round number into view
Rejection at 1.3989 followed by a break of the 1.3967 higher low ends the intraday higher-low chain
Back below the 1.3958 asian low reopens the 1.3950 london low
Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC, US ISM at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 63 · price 1.39852
Asian low false break, NY testing Asian high.
London pushed through the Asian low and set a london low at 1.3950, then reversed. The weekend bearish gap is now filled, and the NY open is pressing the asian high at 1.3987 off a higher low at 1.3967. The CAD digest frames CAD strength as resting on a soft dollar, with crude declines working against the Loonie.
Support: 1.39668, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39871, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 asian high opens the 1.4000 round number, the 1.40 handle flagged in the CAD digest
Break back below the 1.3967 higher low undoes the recovery sequence and exposes the 1.3950 london low
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Recovering from London sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 1.39754
Higher low at 1.3967 under a lower high at 1.3984; range contracting into NY open.
The weekend gap down to 1.3959 filled during Asia, and the Asian high printed at 1.3987. London then unwound the move to a london low at 1.3950, a false break that reversed straight back to a lower high at 1.3984, with the soft-USD and Iran-diplomacy tone not producing follow-through. Into the NY open, price is coiling between the higher low at 1.3967 (50% of the London rebound) and 1.3984, holding the rising trendline and sitting at the EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.39668, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39836, 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Canada manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could break the current coil
M15 close below the 1.3967 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 1.3950 london low
M15 close above the 1.3984 lower high and the 1.3987 asian high puts the 1.40 handle in play
London sweep below Asian low reversed; back inside Asian range.
London took out the 1.3958 asian low (Monday gap-down open) on the soft-USD, Iran-diplomacy drift, bottoming at the 1.3950 london low before a sharp reversal back into the Asian range. Price is now holding a 1.3967 higher low on rising support just under the 1.3984 swing high, RSI(14) near 60 and above both EMAs as the NY open approaches.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 asian high clears the session range and opens the 1.40 psych handle
Break of the 1.3967 higher low and rising support reopens the 1.3950 london low
Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Recovering intraday, inside Asian range · RSI 56 · price 1.39763
London false break below Asian low, higher low at 1.3967.
After Monday's gap lower was filled in Asia, London dropped through the Asian low on soft-dollar Iran-diplomacy flows and printed a london low at 1.3950, then reversed back inside the range. The rebound stalled at the 1.3984 session high, just under the 1.3987 asian high, and the pullback held a higher low at 1.3967 (the 50% fib) going into the NY open.
Support: 1.39668, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39836, 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3987 asian high breaks the range top and brings the 1.4000 round number into view
Failure to hold the 1.3967 higher low exposes the 1.3950 london low again
London V-recovery capped at 1.3984; lower high at 1.3977, holding the 50% fib.
After Monday's bearish gap, London broke below the Asian range to the london low at 1.3950 on the soft dollar. That break failed, and the rebound high at 1.3984 sat just shy of the asian high at 1.3987. Price has since printed a lower high at 1.3977 and is coiling around flat EMAs near 1.3971, with the 50% fib at 1.3967 holding during the London-NY transition and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.39668, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39771, 1.39836, 1.39869
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 1.3967 exposes the london low at 1.3950
A move through the london low brings the friday low at 1.3941 into view
Close above the 1.3977 lower high puts the 1.3984 rebound high and 1.3987 asian high back in play
Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday range, fading from lower high · RSI 45 · price 1.39696
London lower high under Asian high; pullback inside 1.3950–1.3987.
Monday's bearish gap filled in Asia, setting the Asian range at 1.3958–1.3987. London swept the asian low to a 1.3950 london low, then rebounded but stalled at a 1.3984 london high, a lower high under the asian high. Price is now slipping back through the 38.2% fib near 1.3971 into the London-NY transition, below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at 45, as the soft USD tone on Iran-diplomacy hopes keeps rallies capped.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3984, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3950 london low breaks the session range and exposes Friday's 1.3941 low
Hold of the 1.3958 asian low and the 61.8% fib near 1.3963 keeps the range read intact
Reclaim of the 1.3977 swing high and EMA20 turns focus back to the 1.3984 london high and 1.3987 asian high
US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Fed's Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
London false break below Asian range, price back inside 1.3958–1.3987.
After Monday's gap lower, early London broke the Asian low at 1.3958 to a London low of 1.3950 as the softer USD on Iran-diplomacy headlines weighed. Price then reversed in a V to a rebound high at 1.3984, just under the Asian high of 1.3987. The pullback low at 1.3970 held near the 38.2% fib of that rebound, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) near 55 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high breaks the range top and puts the 1.4000 round number in view
Failure to hold the 1.3970 pullback low reopens the 1.3958 Asian low and the 1.3950 London low
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Further crude weakness is the main CAD-side driver that could lift USD/CAD independently of the dollar
London sweep of Asian low reclaimed; lower high under Asian high.
Monday's ~18-pip opening gap lower filled during the Asia session. London open then dropped from the Asian high at 1.3987 through the Asian low to a london low of 1.3950 before reclaiming it, as soft USD on Iran diplomacy met falling crude. The rebound capped at 1.3984, a rebound high under the Asian high, and the pullback low at 1.3970 near the 38.2% rebound fib is holding into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.39704, 1.39579, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39836, 1.39869
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3970 pullback low exposes the 1.3958 asian low and the 1.3950 london low
Close above the 1.3984 rebound high and 1.3987 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3958–1.3987; London false break below, reclaimed.
After the bearish weekend gap, Asia set a 1.3958–1.3987 range. Early London broke the asian low to 1.3950 (london low) on the soft-USD Iran-diplomacy tone, but the move failed and price recovered to 1.3984, a rebound high capped just under the asian high. Late London now sits at the 38.2% of the rebound fib near 1.3971, flat to EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) at 51.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 38.2–50% rebound fib (1.3971–1.3967) puts the asian low at 1.3958 back in play
Break back below the asian low reopens the london low at 1.3950 and the friday low at 1.3941
M15 close above the rebound high at 1.3984 and the asian high at 1.3987 opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Range-bound, rebound fading into a lower high · RSI 48 · price 1.3972
London false break of Asian low, V-rebound capped below Asian high.
After a weekend gap lower, Asia climbed to a 1.3987 Asian high. London then swept the 1.3958 Asian low into a 1.3950 session low, and the V-rebound stalled at 1.3984, a lower high. Price is easing back to 1.3972 near the 38.2% of the London rebound fib, RSI(14) neutral at 48 and just under both EMAs, with soft-USD Iran-diplomacy flows offset by weaker crude.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high breaks the overnight range
Failure to hold the 1.3958 Asian low reopens the 1.3950 session low
Rebound fib 61.8% near 1.3963 is the line between a pullback and a full reversal of the London rebound
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London false break below Asian range, price back inside range.
After a weekend gap lower, London open broke below the asian low at 1.3958 and reached a london low at 1.3950, then reversed roughly 78% of the London drop as the softer USD tone met a CAD capped by sliding crude. The 11:00 bar printed a rejection at 1.3984, just under the 1.3987 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3984, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the rebound line near 1.3971 reopens the 1.3958 asian low and the 1.3950 london low
Repeat rejection at 1.3984 keeps price boxed inside the Asian range into NY
Canada Manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
V-shaped recovery off London low, pressing Asian high · RSI 58 · price 1.39823
False break below Asian range reclaimed; higher lows since 09:00 UTC.
After the bearish weekly-open gap, the Asian session filled it, running from 1.3958 to 1.3987. London then sold off to 1.3950 on the USD safe-haven unwind, a false break below the asian low that was fully reclaimed. Price is now retesting the asian high at 1.3987 with RSI(14) near 58 and a near-complete retrace of the London drop.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 asian high opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the recovery line and a return below 1.3958 asian low revives the london low at 1.3950
Canada Mfg PMI 14:30 UTC, US ISM 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday range, sharp recovery from the London dip · RSI 56 · price 1.39795
False break of Asian low, higher lows back toward Asian high.
After a rejection at the 1.3987 Asian high at London open, USDCAD slid through the 1.3958 Asian low to 1.3950 by 09:00 UTC. It has since retraced about 80% of that drop to 1.3980 on a chain of higher lows. The move tracks a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes, while falling oil limits CAD follow-through.
Support: 1.39714, 1.39579, 1.39499
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high breaks the Asian range and brings the 1.40 pivot into view.
Losing the 1.3971 higher low breaks the recovery line and reopens the 1.3958 Asian low and the 1.3950 London low.
Canada Manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read.
10:31 UTC
London selloff, recovery stalling under resistance · RSI 46 · price 1.39724
Higher lows off 1.3950 London low, at 61.8% fib.
The weekend gap from the 1.3976 Friday close filled in Asia, but London sold off from the 1.3987 Asian high to the 1.3950 London low, sweeping the 1.3958 Asian low as Iran-diplomacy hopes weighed on the USD. Higher lows since then have carried price back to the 61.8% London-drop fib at 1.3973, just under the Friday close. RSI(14) is neutral near 46, with price straddling EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3958, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3976 Friday close reopens the 1.3987 Asian high.
Losing the fib 50% at 1.3968 puts the 1.3958 Asian low and the 1.3950 London low back in play.
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read in the NY session.
10:16 UTC
London down leg, rebound to midpoint · RSI 44 · price 1.39696
London false break below the Asian range, now back inside it.
The weekend gap to 1.3976 (Friday close) filled in Asia, and the asian high at 1.3987 capped price three times. London then broke the asian low at 1.3958 and reached 1.3950 as soft USD and Iran-diplomacy headlines weighed, but the break failed. Price has reclaimed 1.3970, near the 50% fib of the drop, and is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3958 asian low turns the false break into a range break and exposes the friday low at 1.3941
Failure to hold the 1.3950 london low confirms a lower-low on the session
Close above the 1.3976 Friday close reopens the 1.3987 asian high
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM at 15:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday downleg from Asian high, now bouncing · RSI 41 · price 1.39646
London false break below the Asian range low; price back inside the range, capped below the 50% retrace.
Asia filled the bearish weekly-open gap and topped at the asian high near 1.3987. London then sold through the asian low to the london low at 1.3950 as Iran-diplomacy hopes weighed on USD. That break failed: price reclaimed 1.3958 and is stalling just under the 50% retrace of the London leg at 1.3969, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3969, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 1.3958 turns the false break into a breakdown toward the london low at 1.3950 and the friday low at 1.3941
Acceptance above the 50% retrace at 1.3969 opens the path back toward the asian high at 1.3987
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower highs from the Asian high; false break below the Asian low at 1.3958.
Monday opened with a bearish gap below Friday's 1.3976 close. Asia rallied into a 1.3987 high that capped three times before London broke the Asian low at 1.3958 and tagged the 1.3950 swing low, with USD offered on Iran-diplomacy headlines. The rebound has reclaimed the Asian low but is stalling at the 50% retrace near 1.3968, with RSI(14) back at 45.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3968, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3958 Asian low reopens the 1.3950 swing low and the 1.3941 Friday low
Acceptance above the 50% retrace at 1.3968 and the London lower-highs line puts the 1.3976 gap fill in play
Canada Mfg PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
Monday's bearish gap was filled in Asia, but a double top at the 1.3987 asia high gave way into the London open. The selloff cut through the 1.3978 neckline and the 1.3958 asian low and printed a session low at 1.3950, with USD offered as Iran-diplomacy hopes drain the safe-haven premium. Price is now retesting the asian low from below, RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3978, 1.3987
What it said to watch
A sustained hold back above the 1.3958 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Rejection near 1.3967 (38.2% of the London selloff fib) keeps the lower highs chain intact
Failure to hold the 1.3950 session low exposes the 1.3941 friday low
A reclaim of the 1.3978 neckline negates the double top
Canada Mfg PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Mfg (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, London leg extended · RSI 29 · price 1.39536
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since London open.
London open broke the 1.3958 Asian low and extended to a 1.3950 session low. That completes a 37-pip leg from the 1.3987 Asian high, as broad USD softness on Iran-diplomacy headlines outweighed weaker oil. RSI(14) sits near 29 with price under both EMAs, and Friday's 1.3941 low is the next reference below.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3968, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3958 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.3950 session low exposes the 1.3941 Friday low
Recovery through the 1.3968 fib 50% retracement of the London leg would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (Canada S&P PMI at 14:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low; lower highs from the 1.3987 session high.
After a gap lower at the open, USDCAD held a 1.3958–1.3987 Asian range. London broke below the asian low at 1.3958 and printed lower highs under a descending trendline as broad USD softness on Iran-diplomacy hopes weighed. Price is now testing the 1.3950 psych level, just above the friday lows at 1.3946, with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3946, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3968, 1.3987
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3941 friday low extends the lower-low sequence; holding the 1.3946–1.3950 area leaves the London drop open to a retracement
Reclaim of the 1.3958 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakdown read
A bounce stalling at the fib 50% of the London drop near 1.3968, under the descending trendline, keeps the lower-high structure intact
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, with Prices Paid, and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada S&P Global Mfg PMI at 14:30 UTC is a secondary CAD input
London lower highs; Asian range 1.3958–1.3987 fully retraced.
Asia filled Monday's opening gap back through the 1.3976 Friday close and capped at the 1.3987 Asian high. London has since erased the move on a chain of lower highs, putting price back on the 1.3958 Asian low as softer USD and diplomacy-driven oil weakness play through. RSI(14) is near 28, short of a deep extreme.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3958 Asian low breaks the session range and exposes the 1.3950 round number, then the 1.3941 Friday low
Reclaiming the 1.3970 breakdown level, the 38.2–50% zone of the London drop fib, would stall the downtrend read
The London lower highs trendline caps the rebound; a close above it plus the 1.3976 Friday close would neutralise the London leg
Canada S&P Global Mfg PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London · RSI 35 · price 1.39665
Late-Asia shelf broken, lower highs since asia high.
London open broke the asia shelf at 1.3978 and slid to 1.3966, retracing past 61.8% of the Asia rally from the 1.3958 gap low to the 1.3987 asia high, as softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes weighs. RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs; the asia pivot at 1.3964 is being tested now.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3964 asia pivot confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3958 gap low
Reclaim of the 1.3978 asia shelf would mark the London break as a false break
Break of the 1.3958 gap low opens the friday low at 1.3941
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC, with Canada S&P Global PMI at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower-low at 1.3973.
Monday's bearish gap open at 1.3958 was filled in Asia. Price was then capped at the 1.3987 Asian high while the Asian low near 1.3978 held through the session. London open broke that Asian low and printed a london low at 1.3973, leaving price between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Monday rally fib as broad USD softness on Iran-diplomacy hopes weighs; RSI(14) is near 39.
Support: 1.39731, 1.39639, 1.39586
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.39869
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 1.3973 brings the 61.8% Monday rally fib at 1.3969 and the 1.3964 swing low into play
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3978 would mark the London break as a false break
A break of the 1.3964 swing low puts the gap open near 1.3958 back in focus
Asian high at 1.3987 remains the session cap while price holds below 1.3978
Canada S&P Global Mfg PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range top at 1.3987 capped; 1.3978 shelf broken at London open.
Monday's bearish gap to the 1.3958 asian low came on softer USD and Iran-diplomacy hopes. Asia filled it and pushed through the 1.3979 friday high to 1.3987, where the asian high capped two tests before the London open broke the 1.3978 shelf. Price now sits back under the friday high near the 50% fib of the Asian range, with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR(14) about 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3964, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3979 friday high negates the false break and reopens the 1.3987 asian high, then 1.4000 psych
Failure to hold the 1.3972 50% fib exposes the 1.3964 swing low and the 1.3958 asian low at the gap origin
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC (Canada S&P PMI 14:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Further diplomacy-driven oil weakness below $100 WTI would undercut CAD and complicate the pullback
07:46 UTC
Recovery from gap low, now flat · RSI 49 · price 1.39822
Tight Asian range 1.3978–1.3987 after gap fill.
Monday's gap down to 1.3958 was filled during the Asia session, and the rally stalled at the 1.3987 Asian high. Price has held a 1.3978–1.3987 range since 03:00 UTC with RSI(14) neutral near 49. Oil slipping below $100 on Iran diplomacy is limiting CAD follow-through despite the softer dollar.
Support: 1.39778, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
London open: an M15 close below the 1.3978 range low would put the 38.2% fib near 1.3976 and the 1.3964 swing low in play
A break of the 1.3987 asian high, which has been tested twice, exposes the 1.4000 round number
A return to the 1.3958 gap low would unwind the whole gap-fill rally
Canada manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Asia rally stalled, flat into London open · RSI 44 · price 1.39786
Tight 1.3978–1.3987 range after gap fill.
The bearish Sunday gap was filled through 1.3976 in early Asia as the oil-linked dollar bid faded. Since then price has boxed between the 1.3978 range low and the 1.3987 asian high, with four rejections at the top into the London open. RSI(14) near 44 and price slipping under EMA20 show the Asia leg stalling.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3976, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3987 asian high breaks the range and brings 1.4000 psych into play
Close below the 1.3978 range low and the 1.3976 gap fill exposes the 50% fib of the Asia leg near 1.3972, then the 1.3958 session low
Canada manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could break the range
Oil headlines from US–Iran talks could move CAD outside the range
07:16 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled into tight range · RSI 52 · price 1.3984
Gap filled, 9-pip range under Asian high.
USDCAD filled Monday's bearish weekend gap during the Asia session as softer oil weighed on CAD. Price climbed from the 1.3958 Asian low through Friday's 1.3979 high to a 1.3987 Asian high. Since then it has compressed between the 1.3978 range low and 1.3987 into the London open, with highs and lows each tested repeatedly and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.4000 round number into play
Close below the 1.3978 range low exposes the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib near 1.3976, then the 1.3958 Asian low
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Range after gap fill, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 1.39785
Tight 1.3978–1.3987 range above Friday high, testing floor.
Monday's gap down to 1.3958 was fully filled in the Asia session, carrying price through Friday's 1.3979 high to a 1.3987 session high. Rejections at the session high at 03:30 and 06:30 UTC have since held price in a 9-pip range. Price sits on the 1.3978 range low into London open, with RSI(14) near 42, as softer oil caps CAD while the USD's safe-haven bid fades.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3976, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3978 range low confirms a double top and exposes the 1.3976 fri close and the 1.3964 asia swing
A close above the 1.3987 session high reopens the 1.4000 round number
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia gap fill and HH/HL chain, now a tight 1.3978–1.3987 range.
USDCAD filled Monday's bearish opening gap during the Asia session as oil slipped on Middle East diplomacy, rallying from the 1.3958 asia low through Friday's 1.3979 high to a 1.3987 asia high. Since 03:30 UTC the pair has ranged 1.3978–1.3987: the retest low near 38.2% of the Asia leg has held twice and the session high has capped three times. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips heading into London open.
Support: 1.3978, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 asia high breaks the range and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3978 retest low (near 38.2% of the Asia leg) reopens the 1.3958 asia low
Canada Manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Gap filled; higher low at 1.3978, retesting Asian high.
Monday's ~18-pip bearish opening gap was fully filled during the Asia session. USD/CAD climbed through Friday's 1.3976 close (the gap fill) to a 1.3987 Asian high, despite the digest's softer-USD tone. The pullback low at 1.3978 held twice, and price is now retesting the Asian high just before London open, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3976, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3978 pullback low and the 1.3976 gap fill turns the Asian rally into a range
Break below the 1.3964 swing low would put the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally in play
London open volatility could set a new session range; Canada PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM (15:00 UTC) are later risk
Monday opened with a bearish gap of about 18 pips, below Friday's 1.3976 close, as the USD safe-haven bid faded. The Asia session filled the gap and ran to an Asian high of 1.3987, which has since capped three tests. Price now holds a 1.3978–1.3982 band over the pullback low, sitting on ema20 at the 23.6% fib of the Asian leg near Scotiabank's ~1.3980 fair value, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3978, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib and Friday close near 1.3976, then the 1.3964 swing low
Failure to hold 1.3964 would put the 1.3958 Asian low and full gap reopen in play
M15 close above the 1.3987 Asian high opens the 1.4000 round number
London open (08:00 UTC) is the first test of the Asian range
Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Asian uptrend, stalling below session high · RSI 53 · price 1.39809
Weekend gap filled; HH/HL chain intact, flat consolidation 1.3978–1.3987.
The bearish weekend gap to the 1.3958 asian low was fully filled in Asia. A HH/HL climb cleared Friday's 1.3979 high and topped at the 1.3987 session high, as lower oil on Middle East diplomacy offset the fading USD safe-haven bid. Price has since dipped to the 1.3978 pullback low, a ~31% retrace of the Asia rally fib that held the Asia trendline, with RSI(14) at 53 and ATR near 3 pips heading into the London open.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3964, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 pullback low and the Asia trendline breaks the Asian HH/HL chain
Close above the 1.3987 session high reopens the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low puts the 1.3958 asian low and gap-open area back in play
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM (15:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 1.39811
Higher lows from the gap low; shallow pullback holding near Friday's high.
Monday's bearish gap to the 1.3958 Asian low was filled during the Asia session, and price ran to a 1.3987 Asian high as softer oil weighed on CAD. The late-Asia pullback low at 1.3978 sits on Friday's high and above the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 heading into the London open.
Support: 1.3978, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 pullback low and the rising support line points to the 1.3964 swing low
Break of the 1.3987 Asian high opens the 1.4000 psych level
Loss of the 1.3958 Asian low would reopen the gap and negate the higher-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC during NY hours, with Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 1.39802
Gap filled; higher-low chain in Asia, now shallow pullback.
Monday opened with an ~18-pip gap down from Friday's 1.3976 close. Price filled it during Asia, with higher lows at 1.3958 and the 1.3964 swing low carrying it to a 1.3987 Asian high. Lower oil, per the digest, is weighing on CAD. Price is now holding the 1.3978 gap fill area just above EMA20, with RSI(14) cooled to ~58 and the Asian rally only ~25% retraced late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.3978, 1.39758, 1.39639
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3978 gap fill exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3976, then the 1.3964 swing low
Break of the 1.3987 asian high at London open reopens the 1.4000 round number
Oil and Middle East diplomacy headlines remain the main swing factor for CAD into London
05:16 UTC
Asia uptrend stalling, first lower close off the high · RSI 54 · price 1.39783
Gap-fill rally to 1.3987, shelf broken, testing gap fill zone.
Monday's bearish gap to a gap low of 1.3958 was filled in the Asia session. Lower oil weighing on CAD helped lift price through Friday's 1.3979 high to an Asian high at 1.3987. The 05:00 UTC bar broke out of the 1.3983–1.3987 shelf, and price is now testing the 1.3976–1.3978 gap fill zone, where the fib 38.2% and the Asian trendline converge. RSI(14) is neutral at 54 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.39763, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.3983, 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3976 breaks the Asian trendline and exposes the 1.3964 swing low, then the 1.3958 gap low
Reclaim of the broken shelf at 1.3983 puts the 1.3987 Asian high and the 1.4000 round number back in play
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Oil and Middle East diplomacy headlines remain the swing factor for CAD
Higher lows off the gap low; tight 1.3981–1.3987 range since 03:30 UTC.
Monday opened with an ~18-pip gap down to 1.3958. The Asian session then rallied through Friday's 1.3976 close to fill the gap, topping at the 1.3987 Asian high, with lower oil weighing on CAD. Price has since compressed in a 6-pip range above the 1.3981 range low into late Asia, sitting on the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3976, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3981 range low and rising trendline brings the 1.3976 Fri close (38.2% of the Asian rally) and the 1.3972 50% retracement into view
Close above the 1.3987 Asian high around London open opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low unwinds the Asian rally toward the 1.3958 gap low
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC), US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and oil/Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Monday gap low, now compressing under session high.
USDCAD filled Monday's opening gap lower in the Asia session and pushed through the 1.3979 Friday high as easing oil weighs on CAD, printing a session high at 1.3987. Price is now compressing in a tight band, low 1.3981, under the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) has cooled to about 63 and ATR(14) is near 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.39811, 1.39787, 1.39724
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3981 band low exposes the 1.3979 Friday high for a retest
Loss of the 50% fib at 1.3972 would break the HH/HL chain from the 1.3958 gap low
Break of the 1.3987 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
London open could break the compression; Canada PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in NY session
Asia HH/HL chain after gap fill; tight range under 1.3987.
Monday's bearish gap to 1.3958 was filled in Asia, with lower oil weighing on CAD; a HH/HL chain along the rising trendline lifted price through Friday's prior high at 1.3979 to a 1.3987 session high. The last six bars are compressing just under that high, and the double low at 1.3981 has held twice. RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.6 pips reflect thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.39811, 1.39787, 1.39639
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3981 double low and the rising trendline breaks the Asia HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.3979 prior high reopens the 1.3964 swing low
Clearance of the 1.3987 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play into London open
Canada Mfg PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia session opened with an ~18-pip gap down to 1.3958 under the fri close at 1.3976. Price then filled it through a HH/HL chain off the 1.3964 higher low as softer oil weighed on CAD. Late in the Asian range, price is pinned in a 1.3981–1.3987 range under the session high, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.39811, 1.39763, 1.39639
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3981 range low puts the fri close at 1.3976 and the gap-fill area back in play
Close above the 1.3987 session high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3964 higher low breaks the gap-low rally structure and the rising support line
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Canada PMI 14:30 UTC and ISM 15:00 UTC later in the NY session could materially shift this read
Monday gap filled; HH/HL chain through Asia, stalling under session high.
Monday opened with an ~18-pip gap down to the 1.3958 asian low. Asia filled it with a steady HH/HL chain and cleared Friday's high at 1.3979, helped by softer oil weighing on CAD. Late in the Asia session, the session high at 1.3987 is capping and RSI(14) is cooling near 66, with London open still ahead.
Support: 1.39787, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding above the fri high at 1.3979 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below reopens the gap zone near the 1.3972 asia leg fib 50%
An M15 close above the 1.3987 session high opens the path to the 1.4000 round number
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3964 swing low unwinds the Asia leg toward the 1.3958 asian low
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (after the next 8h) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI firm but not stretched · RSI 69 · price 1.39847
Higher-low chain through Asia, weekend gap filled, price above Friday high.
Monday's bearish gap open, driven by headline USD softness on Middle East diplomacy, was fully filled in the Asia session. The Asia rally from the 1.3958 session low printed a steady higher-low chain and cleared the Friday high at 1.3979, setting a session high at 1.3987. RSI(14) sits near 69 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with the rally losing pace just under the session high.
Support: 1.39787, 1.39711, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding above the Friday high at 1.3979 keeps the breakout above last week's close intact; a slip back below it turns the move into a gap fill only
M15 close below the 1.3971 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Rejection at the 1.3987 session high would cap the Asian range; a push through brings the 1.4000 round number into view
London open in ~3h usually sets fresh session structure; Canada PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the Monday gap, trading at the session high.
Monday's roughly 18-pip bearish gap to the 1.3958 gap low has been fully filled in the Asia session. A higher-low chain carried price through Friday's 1.3979 high to a 1.3986 session high, with RSI(14) near 66. The soft-USD gap on Middle East diplomacy has not held on this chart. The Asia rally fib's 38.2% level sits at 1.3975, just under the Friday high.
Support: 1.39787, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39859, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3979 friday high keeps the gap-fill breakout intact. A slip back below exposes the 1.3964 pullback low.
An M15 close below the Asia rising trendline, near 1.3977, would end the higher-low chain.
The 1.4000 round number is the next reference above the 1.3986 session high.
A return below the 1.3958 gap low would reinstate the bearish gap read.
Canada Manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Higher lows through Asia, break above Friday high.
Monday's bearish gap to the 1.3958 Asian low, on haven-driven USD softness, has been fully filled. The Asian rally carved higher lows off the 1.3964 swing low and cleared the 1.3979 Friday high, printing a 1.3985 session high. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched, and price sits on the Asian trendline.
Support: 1.3979, 1.3964, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3985, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3979 friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and the Asian trendline
1.4000 round number is the next cap above the 1.3985 session high
Canada Mfg PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg PMI 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.39837
Higher lows since the gap-down open; Monday gap filled and Friday high broken.
Monday opened with an 18-pip gap lower to 1.3958 on the soft-USD and Middle East diplomacy read. The Asia session filled the gap and built higher lows off the 1.3964 swing low, then pushed through the Friday high at 1.3979 to a session high of 1.3985. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is under 5 pips, so the move is orderly rather than stretched.
Support: 1.39787, 1.39639, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39849, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3979 friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the asia rally trendline; below it, the 1.3958 asia low is the gap-low reference
The 1.4000 round number above the session high is the next test; rejection or acceptance there sets the London read
Canada manufacturing PMI at 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 1.39819
Weekend gap filled, higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia.
The weekend gap lower to 1.3958 on USD haven unwind has been fully filled in the Asia session. Price is back above Friday's 1.3976 close and printing a session high at 1.3983 on a clean higher-low chain off the 1.3966 pullback low, with softer oil likely limiting CAD. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.39765, 1.39658, 1.39579
Resistance: 1.39829, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.3976 gap fill keeps the Asia higher-low sequence intact
M15 close below the 1.3966 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.3958 gap low
Break of the 1.3983 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Canada Mfg PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM Mfg PMI 15:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, gap filled · RSI 63 · price 1.39788
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing Friday's close/high.
Monday's Asia session opened with an ~18-pip gap down to the 1.3958 asian low. Higher highs and higher lows have since filled the gap back to the 1.3976 fri close and printed a 1.3981 session high, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched. This comes after Friday's oil- and yield-driven dip to 1.3941. The 1.4000 round number sits about 20 pips overhead.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3971, 1.3958
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3981 session high opens the 1.4000 round number
Slipping back below the 1.3976 fri close returns price inside the weekend gap
A break of the 1.3971 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asian HL chain; that zone also aligns with the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg
Below 1.3971, the 1.3958 asian low is next in view
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the gap-down open · RSI 61 · price 1.39752
Higher lows through Asia, testing gap fill.
Monday's Asia session opened about 18 pips below Friday's close at 1.3959. It has since climbed through higher lows, the asia hl at 1.3964 the latest, to 1.3975, just shy of the gap fill at 1.3976 and Friday's high at 1.3979. Flow is thin, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 5 pips, while the digest's oil-backed CAD tone sits against the bounce.
Support: 1.39639, 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39763, 1.39787
What it said to watch
Close above 1.3979 friday high clears the gap fill and extends the higher-high chain
Rejection at the 1.3976 gap fill and a break of the 1.3964 asia hl turn the Asian rally into a range
Loss of the 1.3958 asian low reopens Friday's NY selloff zone toward the 1.3941 friday low
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC and oil headlines could materially shift this read during NY hours
02:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since open · RSI 62 · price 1.39734
Asia HH/HL off gap low, pressing gap fill.
Monday opened with a ~18-pip gap down to 1.3958, and Asia has climbed back with a higher low at 1.3964 and a session high of 1.3976, just short of the Friday-close gap fill. The 1.3979 prior high from Friday's late NY session sits directly above. Thin weekend carry-over offers no fresh driver, with oil-supported CAD and a softer USD yield backdrop pulling in opposite directions.
Support: 1.39639, 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39763, 1.39787
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3979 prior high completes the gap fill and clears Friday's late high
Loss of the 1.3964 asia hl breaks the trendline and puts the 1.3958 sunday open back in play
Friday low at 1.3941 is the floor of the 24h range if the gap low gives way
Canada Manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.39741
Weekend gap lower nearly filled, HL chain within Asian range.
The ~18-pip weekend gap lower, consistent with the CAD-firm/USD-soft backdrop on oil above $103, has almost been filled through the Asia session. Price sits at 1.3974, just under the asian high at 1.3976 and the friday high at 1.3979, with a higher low at 1.3964 holding. RSI(14) is near 63, not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 5 pips, typical of quiet Asian conditions.
Support: 1.39639, 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39756, 1.39787
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the friday high at 1.3979 completes the gap fill and puts price through the asian high
A break below the higher low at 1.3964 and the rising line ends the Asian HL chain, with the gap low at 1.3958 next
Failure to hold the gap low at 1.3958 reopens the friday low at 1.3941
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC later Monday could materially shift this read
Higher lows in Asia session, pressing the gap fill.
The Asia session opened with an 18-pip gap down to the 1.3958 gap low as firm oil and a soft USD carried over, but higher lows at 1.3958 and 1.3964 have lifted price to a new session high at 1.3974. Price is now just under the 1.3976 gap fill and the 1.3979 Friday high, which capped the late-Friday rebound from the 1.3941 Friday low.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3979
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3979 completes the gap fill and clears the Friday high
Break below the 1.3964 higher low ends the Asia session higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3958 gap low
Loss of 1.3941 Friday low would put Friday's NY session low back in play
US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and S&P Global PMI (14:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, higher lows in Asia · RSI 61 · price 1.39725
Asia session higher lows within 1.3958–1.3974, pressing range top.
Monday's Asia session opened with an 18-pip gap down to the 1.3958 gap low against Friday's 1.3976 close. Higher lows since then, with the latest swing low at 1.3964, have retraced most of the gap, and price is now retesting the 1.3974 Asian high. Friday's NY drop to the 1.3941 friday low had already been recovered into the close, so the firm-CAD, soft-USD backdrop is not showing on this chart yet.
Support: 1.39639, 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39741, 1.39787
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 Asian high would complete the gap fill toward the 1.3979 friday high
Break of the Asia higher lows trendline and the 1.3964 swing low would put the 1.3958 gap low back in play
Loss of the gap low would reopen Friday's 1.3941 low
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Flat intraday, bounce stalling below the gap · RSI 45 · price 1.39663
Post-gap bounce holding the 61.8% retrace inside the Asian range.
The Asia session opened with an 18-pip gap below Friday's 1.3976 close. The bounce stalled at the 1.3974 asia high, just short of a full fill. Price is now pinned to EMA20 above the 1.3964 pullback low, the 61.8% retrace of the opening leg, while CAD stays firm on oil.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3979
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3974 asia high completes the gap fill and puts the 1.3979 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 1.3964 pullback low exposes the 1.3958 gap low
A break of the 1.3958 gap low reopens Friday's 1.3941 low
London open is the first test of the Asian range
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could reset the intraday range
00:46 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap, early Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.39691
Gap partly filled; higher low under Asian high.
Monday's Asia session opened about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close. Demand stepped in at the 1.3958 open low, just above the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NY rally, and price now holds a 1.3964 Asian higher low under the 1.3974 Asian high. Firm oil and a soft USD kept the pair near mid-September lows on Friday, but the weekend gap is the dominant intraday structure.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3974 asian high puts the 1.3976–1.3979 gap fill zone in play
Failure to hold the 1.3964 asian hl returns focus to the 1.3958 open low and the 61.8% fib
A break below 1.3958 exposes the 1.3941 friday low, Friday's NY session low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Two-way intraday, sideways after weekend gap · RSI 52 · price 1.39661
Asian range 1.3958–1.3974 forming below unfilled weekend gap.
USDCAD reopened about 18 pips lower at the 1.3958 gap low, in line with firm CAD on oil above $103 and a soft USD. The Asia session retraced most of the gap to a 1.3974 Asia high before easing to 1.3966. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52, and the 1.3976 Friday close still marks the unfilled gap.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3949, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3976, 1.3987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3974 Asia high and 1.3976 Friday close fills the weekend gap and opens 1.3987, the fri asia hi
Break below the 1.3958 gap low (~57% of Friday's rebound) exposes the fri ny lows at 1.3949 and the 1.3941 Friday low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC later Monday could materially shift this read
Gap fill stalled at 1.3974, price back at 38.2% of Friday rally.
Monday Asia opened with an 18-pip gap down to the 1.3958 sunday low. The rally to the 1.3974 sunday high stalled two pips short of Friday's 1.3976 close, and price has faded back to the 38.2% retrace of Friday's rally from 1.3941. CAD remains firm on oil above $103 after the three-day slide, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39741, 1.39787
What it said to watch
M15 close above the sunday high at 1.3974 and the gap top at 1.3979 completes the gap fill and reclaims Friday's close
Failure to hold the sunday low at 1.3958, the 61.8% of the Friday rally, reopens the friday low at 1.3941, near the cited 1.3940 wedge bottom
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; a cautious tone on growth would test CAD's oil-led firmness
Gap partly filled, holding below 1.3974 session high.
Friday's late-NY rally ran from the 1.3941 Friday low to a 1.3979 Friday high. The Sunday open gapped about 18 pips lower to a 1.3958 gap low, in line with the firm-CAD, oil-above-$103 backdrop, and that low held near the 61.8% retracement of the rally. Early Asia session has since recovered to 1.3971, holding above the ema20 but capped by a 1.3974 session high, with the gap to 1.3976–1.3979 still unfilled.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3974, 1.3979, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3979 friday high fills the gap and opens the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3967 ema20 puts the 1.3958 gap low back in play
A break of the 1.3958 gap low exposes the 1.3941 friday low and the 1.3940 area
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read