Lower highs from 1.4112; basing above 1.3950 after lower low at 1.3941.
Lower-high sequence intact from 1.4112 through 1.4082 and 1.4068. The post-BoC-hike leg set a lower low at the 1.3941 swing low, the level the digest flags as the lowest since mid-September. Since then price has formed a basing zone around 1.3950, with three holds near 1.3949-1.3951, and is pressing the 38.2% fib of the 1.4068-1.3941 drop near 1.3990, just under the 1.4000 round number. ATR(14) has compressed to about 26 pips from 60+ pips during the breakdown, with price above EMA20 but still below EMA50. That is a pause inside the downtrend rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4000 round number would break the basing-zone ceiling and bring the descending trendline and the 1.4068 lower high into view
Failure to hold the 1.3950 basing zone and the 1.3941 swing low would extend the lower-low sequence
Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; a cautious tone that trims December hike pricing could lift the pair back through the 38.2% fib
US midterm results overnight Tue-Wed could expand ATR out of the current compression
EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would mark the first swing-level shift away from the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4124; tight base above 1.3941.
Lower-high sequence intact from 1.4124 through the 1.4068 swing high and 1.4014. The pair broke below the 1.40 pivot after the less-hawkish Warsh FOMC and printed a swing low at 1.3941. Since then it has compressed into a 1.3950–1.3989 band. The week high sits at the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4068–1.3941 leg, and price holds below both EMAs. ATR(14) is easing to around 26 pips, a compression regime that typically precedes a range break.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3989 week high and the 1.40 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% retrace near 1.4005 in play
Failure to hold the 1.3950 week low and the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
Lower-high trendline from 1.4124 sits near 1.4035; a close above it would mark a structural shift
US midterms Tue and Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada and US jobs Fri Nov 6 are a second volatility event for the week
Lower highs from 1.4124, lower low at 1.3941, ranges tightening.
Lower-high structure has held all window, from 1.4124 to the 1.4068 lower high. The pair broke back below the 1.40 pivot after the BoC hike and the less-hawkish read of the FOMC hold. The slide made a fresh swing low at 1.3941, and the bounce since has stalled inside the 38.2% retrace of that leg. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 26 pips, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are stacked bearishly, as the lows grind sideways above the swing low.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.40 pivot would break the lower-highs trendline and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low extends lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
Recovery through the 1.4068 lower high would mark a full retrace and end the lower-high sequence
US ISM Manufacturing today and Goolsbee shortly after could break the current compression
Macklem Tue, US midterms Tue-Wed and Friday's dual US/Canada jobs data are the week's main swing risks
Lower highs and lower lows inside a falling wedge.
Lower highs since 1.4127 and lower lows down to the 1.3941 swing low. The BoC's hawkish 25bp hike and a softer USD pushed price through 1.40 late last week. The two falling lines are converging into a falling wedge, with the base near 1.3930 and the wedge top near 1.4035, and ATR(14) has contracted to about 24 pips from the 40-60 pip bars of the breakdown. Price is retracing about a quarter of the 1.4068 to 1.3941 leg and sits just above EMA20. The ema50 near 1.3995 and the 38.2% fib at 1.3990 cap the bounce.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the wedge top and 1.4068 swing high in view
Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
Rejection at the ema50 / 38.2% fib zone near 1.3990-1.3995 keeps the downtrend intact
US ISM Manufacturing today at 15:00 UTC and BoC Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada and US jobs data Fri 13:30 UTC are the next multi-day volatility test for the wedge
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4127; bounce toward 1.4000.
The window shows lower highs at 1.4127, 1.4082 and 1.4068. A lower low printed at the 1.3941 swing low after the Fed presser and the BoC's 25bp hike pushed the pair below 1.40. Price is now bouncing back above EMA20 toward the 1.4000 psych 1.40 handle, with EMA50 and the fib 61.8 retracement at 1.4020 stacked just above. ATR(14) near 24 pips has eased from the late-October expansion, so the bounce is a lower-volatility correction inside the downtrend so far.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4020, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above psych 1.40 and the fib 61.8 at 1.4020 would challenge the lower-highs trendline; a break of the 1.4068 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
A failure back through the 1.3965 prior low, then the 1.3941 swing low, would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 1.4134, 1.4082 and 1.4068; new swing low at 1.3941 below the prior 1.3968 low.
Swing structure has stepped lower all window. Lower highs at 1.4134, 1.4082 and 1.4068 sit on a lower-highs trendline, and the late-October 1.4000–1.4068 range gave way after the BoC hike and the post-FOMC USD pullback, with oil above $103 keeping CAD supported. Price set a fresh swing low at 1.3941 and has rebounded only to the 23.6% fib of the 1.4068–1.3941 leg near 1.3971. Both EMAs sit above price with EMA20 below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 27 pips shows steady rather than expanding volatility.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.4000 psych pivot and the 38.2% fib (~1.3990) would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3941 swing low exposes the 1.3900 round number
A move above the 1.4068 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) and Macklem's speech (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read