Lower highs from 1.4109, lows stalling at 1.3941-1.3950; falling wedge.
Lower highs since the 1.4109 window high, with the swing high at 1.4068 capping the late-October bounce. Since then the declines have stalled at the 1.3941 7-week low and the 1.3950 range floor, leaving a falling wedge. Price is now back at the 1.4000 round number, the 50% retracement of that leg, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 25 pips. The recovery has come as USD stays firm on the JOLTS beat, and Macklem's repeated hawkish line has failed to lift CAD.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4035, 1.4068, 1.4109
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4035 wedge top breaks the falling wedge and puts the 1.4068 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number returns focus to the 1.3950 range floor and the 1.3941 7-week low
Midterm results overnight could jolt USD, especially a Senate flip
Fri 13:30 UTC Canada and US jobs released together, with Macklem speaking Thu, could resolve the wedge either way
Lower highs from 1.4112 into 1.3941 low, now higher lows under a flat cap.
The slide from the 1.4112 window high carried through 1.4000 to a 7-week low at 1.3941, with CAD supported by a hawkish BoC and firm oil. Since then the pair has printed higher lows, including a double low near 1.3950. Each rally has been capped just under the 1.4000 cap, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4068 swing high to 1.3941 drop and roughly at EMA50. ATR(14) near 26 pips points to compression inside this narrowing range rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4068, 1.4112
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4000 cap and EMA50 breaks the compression and opens the 1.4068 swing high
Failure at the double low near 1.3950, then a break of the 1.3941 7-week low, resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3900 round number
A break of the higher lows trendline would undercut the basing read
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP / ISM Services could materially shift this read
Friday's Canada and US jobs prints in the same slot are the key test of the 1.3900–1.4000 range
Lower highs since 1.4068; tight 1.3941-1.3996 base above 7-week low.
USDCAD has printed lower highs from the 1.4068 swing high through the 1.4014 lower high, with CAD firm on oil and a softer USD after the post-BoC break below 1.40. Since the 1.3941 7-week low, price has compressed between a 1.3950 range floor, tested three times, and a 1.3996 range top that sits near the 38.2% retracement. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has eased to about 24 pips, consistent with a narrowing falling wedge.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3941 7-week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
H4 close above the 1.3996 range top and wedge resistance breaks the lower-high structure, putting the 1.4014 lower high in view
Macklem at 16:00 UTC (after JOLTS at 15:00 UTC) could break the compression in either direction
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and Friday's Canada LFS/US payrolls are the next volatility events
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4111, compressing into a falling wedge.
Lower-high sequence intact from 1.4111 through the 1.4068 swing high to this week's 1.3996 wedge top. The pair broke below 1.40 after the BoC's 25bp hike and firm oil, printing the 1.3941 swing low. Since then the lows have held a shallow base near 1.3950 and the upper line has stayed steeper than the lower, forming a falling wedge. ATR(14) near 26 pips points to compression, while price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50.
Support: 1.3950, 1.39414, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39962, 1.4020, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3996 wedge top and 1.4000 breaks the falling wedge and brings the fib 61.8 at 1.4020 into view
Recovery through the 1.4068 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3950 base and the 1.3941 swing low confirms a fresh lower low, with 1.3900 round number next
Macklem today 16:00 UTC and JOLTS 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results Wed and Friday's joint Canada/US jobs reports are event risk for the wedge resolution
Lower highs from 1.4112, compressing into a falling wedge.
Lower highs from 1.4112 through the 1.4068 swing high and a swing low at 1.3941 on Friday define a falling wedge, with the slide tied to the BoC hike, a softer USD and firm oil. Monday's dips held a higher low around 1.3950, and price is stalling just below the 1.4000 round number near the 38.2% retracement, under both EMAs, which remain bearishly stacked. ATR(14) near 24 pips has eased from last week's expansion, consistent with compression toward the wedge apex.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4040, 1.4068
What it said to watch
BoC Gov. Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean puts the 1.3941 swing low back in play
H4 close above the 1.4000 round number and the wedge top near 1.4040 would break the falling wedge and expose the 1.4068 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 higher low and 1.3941 swing low extends the downtrend toward 1.3900 psych
US midterms overnight Tue/Wed, JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC, and Friday's NFP and Canada jobs data are event risk for the wedge resolution
Lower highs intact; higher low at 1.3950 inside a compressing range.
Lower highs at 1.4112 and 1.4068 define the three-week downtrend. The leg after the hawkish BoC hike and the soft USD broke the 1.4000 round number and printed a 1.3941 swing low. Since then a higher low near 1.3950 has formed, and price is pressing the 38.2% fib and the round number around 1.3990-1.4000 as ATR(14) compresses to ~24 pips. EMA20 sits just beneath price but below EMA50, so there is no H4 cross yet.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4112
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 50% fib near 1.4005 opens the path back to the 1.4068 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 higher low and then the 1.3941 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.3900-1.3920
A break of the 1.4068 lower high and the lower-high line, with 1.4112 window high above, would invalidate the downtrend read
Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) plus US midterms and JOLTS (Tue 15:00 UTC) could break the compression either way