22:05 UTC
Broad range with higher lows, pulling back from cycle high · RSI 48 · price 1.39693
Higher lows since Jan 2026 inside a 1.3480–1.4300 band; pullback from top.
USDCAD has held a broad 1.3480–1.4300 range since late 2025. Higher lows off the January 2026 low at 1.3481, the April low and the August low at 1.3732 have lifted the floor of that range. The October push to the 1.4299 cycle high met rejection just above the 1.4248 June high. Three weeks of selling have since taken price back below the 1.4000 round number and the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 rally, while EMA(50) on W1 near 1.3910 still sits beneath price as the macro filter. Oil-linked CAD demand and a hawkish BoC have driven the pullback, while firm US data and Fed hike talk have kept the decline orderly.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3910, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4248, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 7-week low at 1.3941 and the ema50 near 1.3910 shifts the read toward deeper reversion to the 50% fib of the 2026 rally near 1.3890
- A break of the higher-low trendline (~1.3860) and the aug low at 1.3732 would end the 2026 higher-low sequence and return focus to the range floor
- Weekly close back above the 1.4000 round number reopens the june high at 1.4248 and the cycle high at 1.4299
- BoC Macklem speech Thu and simultaneous Canada/US jobs data Fri could materially shift this read, alongside oil swings on Iran headlines