20:04 UTC
Range-bound since June, higher lows since April · RSI 52 · price 1.39953
1.3732–1.4299 range above rising trendline support.
USDCAD has been range-bound between the 1.3732 Aug low and the 1.4299 Oct high since breaking out in June from the Feb–May 1.35–1.40 base. The rising trendline of higher lows from the 1.3550 Apr low is intact. After the rejection at the Oct high, price has retraced to the 50% fib of the Apr–Oct advance near 1.3925, matching this week's low, and now sits on the W1 EMA(20) while holding above the W1 EMA(50), so the macro structure is intact with the 1.4000 psych level as the pivot. Friday's strong US payrolls (165K) against a Canadian jobs loss (-4.7K) lifted the pair off the weekly low, keeping Fed/BoC policy divergence as the driver of the current regime.
Support: 1.3925, 1.3732, 1.3550
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4248, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 50% fib near 1.3925 exposes the Aug low at 1.3732 and the rising trendline
- A weekly close back above the 1.4000 psych level reopens the june high 1.4248 / oct high 1.4299 cap
- A weekly close above the oct high 1.4299 would turn the range into a renewed uptrend
- A loss of the apr low at 1.3550 would break the higher-low sequence and the trendline
- US CPI and the BoC Summary of Deliberations, both Tue Nov 10, could materially shift the Fed/BoC divergence read