Lower highs 1.4082, 1.4068, 1.4014; lower lows into 1.3929.
USDCAD has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 1.4068 prior high, with this week's lower high at 1.4014 capping again beneath 1.4000 as post-midterm USD selling kept the pair heavy. The lows are falling more slowly than the highs, from 1.3941 to the 1.3929 swing low, so price is compressing into a falling wedge. ATR(14) near 27 pips points to a contracting regime, and price is holding just under both EMAs, which remain bearishly stacked.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the wedge top and the lower-high sequence; that level also sits at the 61.8% fib of the 1.4068-1.3929 leg.
Failure to hold the 1.3929 swing low extends lower lows and exposes the 1.3900 round number at the wedge base.
Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC), plus Canada LFS and US NFP (both Fri 13:30 UTC), could resolve the wedge compression either way.
A sustained move back above 1.4068 prior high would negate the downtrend read.
Since the 1.4068 prior high, USDCAD has put in lower highs and lower lows. The latest lower high at 1.4014 was rejected below the 1.4000 round number, and this week's swing low printed at 1.3929, with post-midterm USD selling and a hawkish BoC behind the slide. The swing lows are declining more slowly than the highs, giving a falling wedge shape with the 1.3900 psych level below, while ATR(14) near 28 pips shows a steady rather than expanding range.
Support: 1.39293, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40136, 1.40682
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3929 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 psych level
Close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the downtrend sequence and resolves the falling wedge higher; the 1.4068 prior high is the next reference
1.4000 round number has capped repeated rallies this week; another rejection there keeps the wedge intact
Macklem speech Thu 15:30 UTC and Fri 13:30 UTC Canada LFS alongside US NFP could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.3956
Lower highs from 1.4068; range 1.3941-1.4014 at the lows.
Lower highs persist since the 1.4068 swing high. The pair has carved a roughly 70-pip range above the 1.3941 7-week low, and the range top at 1.4014 drew a sharp rejection that brought price back toward the floor. The midterm-driven USD flush and a firm CAD explain the grind lower. ATR(14) near 28 pips points to compression rather than trend expansion, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3941 7-week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Recovery through the 1.3996 lower high and the 1.4014 range top breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
ISM Services 15:00 UTC today (f/c 54.8) could materially shift the USD leg
Canada jobs and US payrolls Fri 13:30 UTC, plus Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC, could force a range break
Reclaim of the 1.4068 swing high would invalidate the lower-high structure
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 45 · price 1.39589
Lower highs from 1.4068; lows holding 1.3941-1.3950.
Lower-high sequence intact since the 1.4068 prior high. The swing low at 1.3941 has since given way to a 1.3941-1.4014 range, with repeated tests of the 1.3950 range floor. This week's rebound stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 1.4068-1.3941 leg, leaving a lower high at 1.4014 before rejection back toward the lows on USD weakness after the US midterm result. ATR(14) near 26 pips points to a compressing range, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50 and the EMAs still stacked bearishly.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3941 swing low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4068 prior high
Repeated holds of the 1.3950 range floor keep the range read in play
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Canada/US jobs Fri 13:30 UTC are the next CAD-side risks to the range
Lower highs from 1.4095; 1.3950–1.4014 range above the seven-week low.
Lower highs at 1.4095 and 1.4068 have defined the window. The late-October break below 1.40 followed the BoC hike and Macklem's hawkish tone, and the drive printed a 7-week low at 1.3941. Since then price has held a 1.3950–1.4014 range, with the range low tested twice this week, while the latest bar rejected the range top near the 50–61.8% retracement as the Democratic sweep weighed on USD. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has eased to roughly 27 pips, a compression regime.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068, 1.4095
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3950 range low and the 1.3941 7-week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
Close back above the 1.4014 range top and the 61.8% fib near 1.4020 opens the 1.4068 lower high and the 1.4095 window high
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could trigger a USD relief bounce against the election-driven slide
Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC and Canada/US jobs Fri 13:30 UTC are the next range-break catalysts
Lower highs from 1.4068 to 1.4014, lows flattening at 1.3941-1.3950.
Lower highs since the 1.4095 window open, with the 1.4068 swing high and the latest 1.4014 lower high both capped. Lows have flattened between the 1.3941 7-week low and a 1.3950 range floor tested twice this week. The latest bar rejected the 1.40 area and fell about 57 pips as USD slipped on early midterm tallies. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 26 pips points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3941 7-week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.3900 round number
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4068 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3950 range floor shifts the compression toward a downside resolution
Wed ADP and ISM Services, plus final midterm Senate calls, could materially shift this read
Fri Canada LFS and US jobs, both at 13:30 UTC, are the main catalyst for a break of the range