Lower highs from 1.4068, shallow lower lows into a falling wedge.
Lower highs from the 1.4068 swing high (1.4014 twice, now 1.4005) against shallower lower lows at 1.3942 and the 1.3929 7-week low define a falling wedge. The post-midterm USD sell-off produced the 1.3929 low. Firmer US claims and hawkish Fed talk have lifted price back above the ema20 to the 1.4000 round number and the 50% retracement, where this bar was rejected. Price is pressing against the EMA50 near 1.3987, EMA20 remains below EMA50, and ATR(14) near 28 pips is steady rather than compressing.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower highs breaks the wedge top and the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.4068 swing high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3970 returns price toward the 1.3942 swing lows
Break below the 1.3929 7-week low extends the lower-low sequence along the wedge base
US NFP and Canada jobs both at 13:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; a relative surprise between the two likely decides the wedge break
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4068, converging into a falling wedge.
USDCAD has printed lower highs from 1.4068 to 1.4014, a lower high that sits on the 61.8% retracement, and a fresh swing low at 1.3929. Post-midterm USD selling and a hawkish BoC drove the slide. Firm US data since then has slowed the decline, and the lows are now contracting toward a falling wedge base. Price sits below both EMAs with the 1.3941 prior low being retested, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 25 pips, with recent bars ranging only 11-17 pips.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3998, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3998 wedge top, followed by the 1.4014 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3941 prior low and 1.3929 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
1.3977 recent high is the first cap, with ema20 overhead near 1.3966
Macklem speech today 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, are the likely catalyst for a wedge resolution
Lower highs at 1.4068 then 1.4014, shallower lows into a falling wedge.
USDCAD has printed lower highs from the 1.4068 swing high to the 1.4014 lower high. The post-midterm USD selloff carried price to a 1.3929 swing low, but lows are descending more slowly than highs, so the structure is narrowing into a falling wedge with the wedge top near 1.3990. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) near 26 pips and the last few bars compressing, which leaves the 1.3929–1.3990 band as the near-term box.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3990 wedge top and 1.4014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3929 swing low opens the 1.3900 round number
BoC Macklem speech today 15:30 UTC could shift the CAD side of the read
Friday 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could resolve the wedge either way
Lower-high sequence from 1.4068, compressing into a falling wedge.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 1.4068 late-October high. Post-midterm USD selling pushed the pair through the 1.3941 prior low to a 1.3929 swing low, and the rebound stalled at a 1.3978 lower high, short of the fib 50% retracement near 1.4000. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 26 pips. The converging trendlines off the 1.4014 swing highs and the 1.3929 swing low describe a falling wedge.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3929 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.3900 round number in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3941 prior low on a closing basis keeps the wedge base under pressure
H4 close above the 1.3978 lower high and then the fib 50% at 1.4000 challenges the downtrend read
A break above the 1.4014 swing highs would breach wedge resistance and end the lower-high structure
BoC Gov. Macklem (Thu 15:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, are the high-impact risk for the wedge resolution
Lower highs and lower lows inside a falling wedge.
Lower highs at 1.4082, the 1.4068 prior high and the 1.4014 lower high, alongside lower lows down to the 1.3929 swing low, define the leg lower. Post-midterm USD selling and a hawkish BoC tone drove the move. The lower-low slope is much shallower than the falling highs, so price is compressing into a falling wedge beneath the 1.4000 psych cap. RSI sits near 47 and ATR(14) has eased to about 26 pips, which points to downside momentum fading rather than extending.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4014 lower high breaks the wedge and the lower-high sequence, bringing the 1.4068 prior high into view
Failure to hold the 1.3929 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3900 round number
Macklem speech Thu 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC brings US NFP and the Canada LFS in the same release window, a likely trigger for a wedge resolution