USD/CAD held a 1.3930–1.4014 range from Monday's open through Wednesday. The election-driven USD drop in Wednesday's Asia session carried into the NY open and printed the week low at 1.39293. Thursday's NY session reversed it as firm US claims and hawkish Fed talk lifted the dollar: a higher low at 1.39422 was followed by a late-NY push through the 1.4000 round number and Tuesday's 1.40136 prior high to a 1.40237 week high, with price now well above EMA(20) near 1.3987 and RSI(14) at 66 after a choppy sub-50 base.
Support: 1.40136, 1.4000, 1.39871
Resistance: 1.40237, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.40136 prior high and the 1.4000 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
A pullback holding EMA(20) and the 38.2% of the week low-high fib near 1.3988 keeps the higher-low trendline intact; a break of that line reopens the range
Close above the 1.40237 week high opens the 1.4050 psych level
US NFP and Canada jobs both land at 13:30 UTC Friday; the relative surprise could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Uptrend, breaking out to week highs · RSI 73 · price 1.4018
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, range top at 1.4014 cleared.
USD/CAD has climbed from Wednesday's election-led low at 1.3929 through a higher low at 1.3942 in Thursday's Asian range. It is now trading above Tuesday's prior high at 1.4014 and the 1.4000 round number, with a new week high at 1.4024. The leg higher was driven during NY hours and tracks the USD rebound on the 189K jobless claims print and hawkish Fed commentary. RSI(14) has pushed into overbought territory near 73, and the earlier dip to the 1.3980 swing low found buyers above the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 1.4014, 1.4000, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4024
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4014 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break and return price to the week's range
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number shifts focus to the 1.3980 swing low and the 38.2% retracement near 1.3988
A break of the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low would end the uptrend structure
Clearance of the 1.4024 week high extends the breakout; any RSI divergence (bearish) on a new high would flag fading momentum
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) could shift US rate expectations ahead of the jobs data
US NFP and Canada employment both land Fri 13:30 UTC, and their relative surprise could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Range-bound week, Thursday impulse back to the top · RSI 69 · price 1.40122
USD/CAD has reversed Wednesday's election-driven slide to 1.3929. Thursday's Asian-session higher low at 1.3942 launched a Thursday impulse through London and NY on strong US claims and productivity data, carrying price back above the 1.4000 round number. Price now sits just under Tuesday's 1.4014 week high, with RSI(14) near 69 and the 1.3981 pullback low the only notable dip in the leg.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the range top that has capped the week
Failure at the week high followed by a close back under the 1.4000 round number would leave a double-top shape at the range top
Loss of the 1.3981 pullback low (near the 38.2% of the Thursday impulse) shifts the read back to range-bound
A break below the 1.3942 higher low exposes the 1.3929 week low
Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding toward range top · RSI 65 · price 1.39978
Lower highs 1.4014/1.4005 vs higher lows 1.3929/1.3942, contracting range.
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.3929–1.4014 range since Monday's open. Wednesday's election-driven USD drop printed the week low into the London-NY transition, and Thursday's rally from 1.3942 ran through London and NY on the claims and productivity beats and hawkish Fed talk. That leg met rejection at Thursday's 1.4005 high, a lower high under the 1.4014 week high, but the pullback held the 38.2% fib of the Thursday rally at 1.3981, and price now sits back at the 1.4000 round number above ema20 with RSI(14) near 65. With lower highs pressing against higher lows, the range is contracting into Friday's jobs data.
Support: 1.3981, 1.39755, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.40052, 1.40136
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
A loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.3981 and of ema20 near 1.3976 shifts focus back to Thursday's 1.3942 low and the higher-lows trendline
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada employment print together; the relative surprise could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC Friday is an earlier risk to December hike pricing
19:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding toward range top · RSI 64 · price 1.39956
Contracting range: lower high 1.4005, higher low 1.3942.
Since the 1.3959 weekly open, USD/CAD has held a 1.3929–1.4014 range. Tuesday's NY-session push to the week high faded in Wednesday's Asia session as the election result hit the USD, and the slide reached the 1.3929 week low by London afternoon. Thursday's NY-session rally after the 189K claims print retraced about 79% of Wednesday's drop and was rejected at the 1.4005 Thursday high, just above 1.4000. That leaves a lower high against the week high and a 1.3942 higher low, with price holding above EMA(20) near 1.3974 and RSI(14) around 64.
Support: 1.3974, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4005 Thursday high and 1.4014 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Return below EMA(20) at 1.3974 puts the Thursday rally back inside the range middle
Failure to hold the 1.3942 higher low exposes the 1.3929 week low and range floor
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP (f/c 65K) and Canada jobs (f/c 13.6K) land simultaneously and could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower highs from 1.4014, higher lows from 1.3929.
USD/CAD has rotated inside a 1.3929–1.4014 range since Tuesday's late push to the week high. Wednesday's post-election slide set the week low at 1.3929, and Thursday printed a higher low at 1.3942. The NY-session rally that followed the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed talk carried price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), then met rejection at today's high of 1.4005, a lower high under the 1.4000 handle; RSI(14) near 63 sits short of overbought.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the lower highs line and the range top
Price has held the 38.2% of the Thursday rally fib near 1.3981 so far; a slide through 50% (1.3974) and ema20 near 1.3970 would fade the rebound
Failure to hold the 1.3942 higher low exposes the 1.3929 week low and breaks the higher lows line
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land in the same slot; a relative surprise between them could break either side of the range
1.3929–1.4014 weekly range tightening: lower high, higher low.
USD/CAD retraced most of Wednesday's post-midterm sell-off from the 1.3929 week low, putting in a higher low at the 1.3942 thursday low around London open and then rallying through NY hours to 1.4005 after the US claims and productivity beats. The 1.4000 handle capped again, with a rejection bar printing today's high just below the 1.4014 week high and making a lower high. Price now sits near the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's sell-off and above the ema20 near 1.3967, with RSI(14) cooling from the upper 60s.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3967 and the higher-lows line puts the 1.3942 thursday low and the 1.3929 week low back in focus
Repeated failure at the 1.4005 today high keeps the 1.4000 area acting as the range cap
Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC, then simultaneous US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Recovering within weekly range, momentum turning up · RSI 68 · price 1.3994
Higher low at 1.3942 after Wednesday's selloff; lower-highs line broken, price pressing 1.4000.
Wednesday's election-led selloff took USD/CAD from the 1.4014 week high to the 1.3929 week low. Thursday's NY session lifted price from a 1.3942 higher low, helped by the USD rebound on the 189K claims beat, and it has now retraced roughly three-quarters of that drop. Price has cleared the lower-highs line and sits above the ema20 near 1.3969 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 68 as it presses the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3969, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 week high breaks the range top and fully unwinds Wednesday's selloff
Rejection at the 1.4000 round number and a close back below the ema20 near 1.3969 would restore the lower-highs read
Loss of the 1.3942 higher low exposes the 1.3929 week low
Reaction to Macklem's 15:30 UTC remarks is still feeding into the current bar
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC beforehand
15:02 UTC
Two-way range, NY-led rebound off a higher low · RSI 65 · price 1.39845
84-pip range 1.3929–1.4014 since Monday; higher low at 1.3942.
USDCAD has chopped inside a 1.3929–1.4014 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's run to the week high reversed in Wednesday's Asia session on the post-midterm USD selloff, which printed the week low at 1.3929. Thursday's London dip held a higher low at 1.3942, and the NY session rally on firm US claims and productivity reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.3966, stalling at a 1.3993 session high just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) near 65 short of overbought.
Support: 1.3966, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39934, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3993 session high exposes the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high
Failure to hold ema20 near 1.3966 returns focus to the higher low at 1.3942
Break below the 1.3929 week low would end the range read and confirm a lower-low
BoC Macklem speech at 15:30 UTC today and Friday's NFP plus Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.3929–1.4014 range this week. Tuesday's NY-session push to the 1.4014 week high unwound in Wednesday's Asia session, and post-midterm USD selling extended the slide to the 1.3929 week low. Thursday printed a higher low at 1.3942 in London, then US data beats (claims 189K, productivity 3.6%) lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) into the 61.8% fib of the Tue-Wed drop near 1.3981, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3981 opens the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3964 and the higher-low line puts the 1.3942 thu low and 1.3929 week low back in focus
BoC Governor Macklem speaks at 15:30 UTC today and could materially shift this read
US NFP and Canada jobs land together Fri 13:30 UTC, a high-risk window for a range break
1.3929–1.4014 weekly range; higher low Thursday, lower high capping.
Tuesday's push through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 week high was a false break: Wednesday's post-midterm USD selling took the pair to a 1.3929 week low. Thursday's thu low at 1.3942 held as a higher low, and the European-session USD recovery has lifted price back above the weekly open and both EMAs into the 50% retracement of the week's drop near 1.3972. The 1.3977 lower high from Wednesday's NY session is the next cap, with RSI(14) back above 50.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39775, 1.4000, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3977 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4000 round number and week high
Failure back below the weekly open at 1.3959 puts the thu low at 1.3942 and the week low at 1.3929 back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack, could extend or reverse the intraday USD rebound
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC: a growth-focused tone vs repeated hike language could shift the range read ahead of Friday's concurrent US and Canada jobs data
Lower highs from 1.4014; higher low at 1.3942 inside a 1.3929–1.3977 band.
After a brief push to the 1.4014 week high late Tuesday, USDCAD rolled over in Wednesday's Asia session on post-midterm USD selling. The London leg extended the drop to the 1.3929 week low. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.3977 wed high, a lower high under the falling trendline. Thursday's London-open dip held a higher low at the 1.3942 thu low, and price is now coiling on EMA(20) near 1.3957 with RSI(14) flat at 47; the fib 38.2 retracement of the week's drop at 1.3963 is capping today's session high.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3963, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fib 38.2 at 1.3963 and then the 1.3977 wed high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens 1.4000 and the 1.4014 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3942 thu low voids the higher-low read and exposes the 1.3929 week low
A break below the 1.3929 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 round number
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT and BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday's 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could resolve the 1.3929–1.3977 band
Rejected 1.4014, now compressing between 1.3929 and 1.3977.
The pair ground higher from the 1.3959 week open through Monday and Tuesday. Supply capped it at the 1.4014 week high, and broad USD selling on the midterm results drove a 40-pip drop in Wednesday's Asia session, extended to the 1.3929 week low ahead of the NY open. The rebound stalled at the 1.3977 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's drop. Thursday has drifted in a tight 1.3942–1.3960 band, with price pinned to EMA(20) just under the week open, below EMA(50) near 1.3966, and RSI(14) flat around 49.
Support: 1.39422, 1.39293, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39586, 1.39775, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3942 thu low breaks the higher lows line off 1.3929 and puts the week low back in play; below that, 1.3900 psych is the next reference
Recovery above the 1.3977 rebound high and the 61.8% of Wednesday's drop would negate the lower-highs read and reopen the 1.4014 week high
Macklem speech at 15:30 UTC today, after US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday 13:30 UTC US payrolls and Canada jobs land together and could resolve the current compression either way of the week open
Lower high at 1.3977 under 1.4014; 1.3929–1.3978 range.
USD/CAD saw rejection at Tuesday's late 1.4014 week high as the Democratic sweep and lower yields hit the USD. Wednesday's Asia session started the drop and NY hours extended it to the 1.3929 week low. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.3977 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that drop. Thursday's London session has kept price below EMA(20) and the 1.3959 week open, and RSI(14) is near 45, as price compresses between the lower highs and a higher low at the 1.3942 thursday low.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3977 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens 1.4000–1.4014 week high
Loss of the 1.3942 thursday low voids the higher low and puts the 1.3929 week low back in play
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC today and US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Friday's simultaneous NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC are the main event risk for the range
Lower high at 1.3978 below 1.4014 week high, price below EMA20.
The week opened near 1.3959 and pushed through the 1.4000 psych level to a 1.4014 high late Tuesday. The Democratic midterm sweep and the oil slump then drove a sharp USD sell-off early Wednesday, extending to a 1.3929 week low during NY hours. The rebound stalled at a 1.3978 lower high, inside the 50–61.8% retracement of the week's drop. Asia and early London today have ground lower beneath the EMA20 near 1.3955 to a 1.3942 session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and no divergence yet.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3955, 1.3978, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H1 failure to hold the 1.3942 session low exposes the 1.3929 week low; a close below it confirms a lower-low extension toward the 1.3900 round number
H1 close back above the EMA20 near 1.3955 and then the 1.3978 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence and reopen 1.4000 psych
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada jobs, both at 13:30 UTC, are the key event risk for the week's range
Lower highs below 1.4014; failed rebound, drifting to lows.
USDCAD held a 1.3950–1.3995 range through Monday and most of Tuesday. A late-Tuesday push through 1.4000 to the 1.4014 week high failed, and post-midterm USD selling drove an 85-pip drop to the 1.3929 week low in Wednesday's London session. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.3978 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, and the Asia session has since drifted to a 1.3942 low, leaving price just under EMA(20) near 1.3957 with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3957, 1.3978, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3978 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence since Tuesday
Failure to hold the 1.3942 asia low exposes the 1.3929 week low, then the 1.3900 psych level
Repeated rejection at ema20 near 1.3957 keeps the downtrend read intact
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 GMT are a risk to retest the 1.4014 week high or extend the lows
Lower highs below 1.4014 week high, bounce capped at 1.3977.
Tuesday's NY-session push to the 1.4014 week high was reversed in Wednesday's Asia session, when post-midterm USD selling and lower Treasury yields drove the pair to a 1.3929 week low by the London-NY transition. The NY bounce stalled at 1.3977, a lower high just short of the 61.8% fib of that drop, with a second lower high at 1.3974 late Wednesday. The Asia session has since drifted back to the 1.3943 asia low, below the 1.3959 weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3943, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3929 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Recovery above the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.3959, then the 1.3977 lower high and the lower-high trendline, would break the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC are the main risk to the week's structure
Lower highs below 1.4014, holding above the 1.3929 week low.
Tuesday's NY rally peaked at the 1.4014 week high and reversed sharply in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep drove broad USD selling, extending to a 1.3929 week low into the London-NY transition. The NY rebound stalled at a 1.3977 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, and Thursday's Asian range has slipped back below EMA(20) and the 1.3959 weekly open with RSI(14) near 42. The Asia low at 1.3947 is the nearest floor, with the 1.3900 round number below the week low.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3977 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 61.8% fib near 1.3981
Failure to hold the 1.3947 asia low exposes the 1.3929 week low, then the 1.3900 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3959 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the Asia drift lower
US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP and Canada jobs
Return toward the 1.4014 week high would signal the election-driven leg has fully unwound
Lower highs below 1.3977 after Wednesday's break; drifting in a 1.3929–1.3977 box.
Tuesday's NY push through the 1.4000 round number to 1.4014 failed. Broad USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep then drove the pair to a week low of 1.3929 into Wednesday's London-NY transition. The rebound stalled near the 50–61.8% retracement, leaving two lower highs at 1.3977, and price has slipped back under the ema20 near 1.3961, which sits alongside the 1.3959 weekly open. Thursday's Asian session is pressing the 1.3947 asia low with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and ranges contracting.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3961, 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3947 asia low exposes the 1.3929 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3900 area cited in the CAD digest
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.3977 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem 15:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a softer Macklem tone is flagged as a path back toward 1.4000
Friday 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs released together are the larger risk to the 1.3929–1.4000 structure
Lower highs below 1.4014; holding above the 1.3929 week low.
Monday and Tuesday ranged between 1.3950 and 1.4000. A Tuesday NY push set the week high at 1.4014, then reversed in early Wednesday trade as the Democratic midterm sweep drove broad USD selling. London and NY hours extended the drop to the 1.3929 week low. The recovery stalled at a 1.3977 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the drop, and the Asia session has drifted back under the 1.3959 weekly open and EMA(20) toward the 1.3947 asian low, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3947 asian low puts the 1.3929 week low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3959 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts this to a 1.3930–1.3977 range read
Close above the 1.3977 lower high and the descending trendline from the 1.4014 week high invalidates the post-election downtrend
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Range-bound, heavy below 1.4000 after failed spike · RSI 45 · price 1.39553
Lower highs from 1.4014 week high, higher low off 1.3929.
Tuesday's late push to the 1.4014 week high was a false break above 1.4000 that unwound sharply in Wednesday's Asia session on the Democratic midterm sweep, extending to the 1.3929 week low around the London-NY transition. The NY rebound stalled at a 1.3977 lower high near the 61.8% fib of that drop, and Asia has since slipped back under the weekly open at 1.3959 to test the 1.3948 asia low. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 45, compressing between the descending trendline from the week high and the week low.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3929, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3948 asia low reopens the 1.3929 week low, with the 1.3900 round number beyond
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.3959 and a break of the 1.3977 lower high/trendline would neutralise the lower-highs read
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (15:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Friday's concurrent US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC are the main risk to the 1.3929–1.4014 range
02:02 UTC
Downtrend since the midterm result, lower highs intact · RSI 44 · price 1.39533
Lower highs from 1.4014; 1.3929-1.3977 range under EMAs.
Tuesday's NY push through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4014 week high was a false break. Broad USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep then drove price lower from Wednesday's Asia session to a 1.3929 week low in NY hours, beneath the 1.3941 Friday low. The rebound stalled at the 1.3977 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, extending the lower-highs sequence. Price has slipped back below the weekly open to test the 1.3950 prior lows, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) overhead and RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3929 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.3977 rebound high and 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs read
Failure to reclaim the 1.3959 weekly open keeps price pinned to the 1.3950 prior lows
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (15:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada LFS both land at 13:30 UTC; a return toward the 1.4000 round number needs a USD-positive surprise
01:02 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside the weekly range · RSI 48 · price 1.39587
Lower highs from 1.4014; range 1.3929–1.4014.
Tuesday's NY-session push above 1.4000 to the 1.4014 week high reversed in Asia hours Wednesday as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The drop extended through London to the 1.3929 week low, after breaking the 1.3950 shelf that had held on Monday and Tuesday. The ADP-led rebound in NY hours stalled at the 1.3977 rebound cap, just under the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday drop. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and it is now back at the 1.3959 weekly open, below EMA(20) at 1.3965 and EMA(50) near 1.3970, with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 1.39586, 1.3949, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39652, 1.39775, 1.40136
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 shelf exposes the 1.3929 week low
Close above the 1.3977 rebound cap and the lower-highs trendline negates the post-election lower-high sequence
Repeated holds below ema20 keep the descending structure intact
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC today could shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada LFS (both 13:30 UTC) can test the 1.4014 week high or the week low
00:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off the week low · RSI 51 · price 1.39702
1.3929–1.4014 weekly range; false break below Friday low reclaimed, now a tight 1.3962–1.3978 box.
USD/CAD pushed above 1.4000 into Tuesday's NY close, setting a 1.4014 week high, then reversed in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The slide extended to a 1.3929 week low in late London trade before closing back above Friday's 1.3941 low, a false break. The NY-session rebound stalled at the 1.3978 rebound high, just under the 61.8% retracement of the week-high-to-low drop. Price now sits at the 50% level near 1.3970, where EMA(20) and a flat EMA(50) have converged, with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3978, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.3959 weekly open and the 1.3950 mon/tue low would put the 1.3929 week low back in play
A close above the 1.3978 rebound high and the 61.8% at 1.3981 opens the 1.3996 mon/tue high, then the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 week high
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and BoC Governor Macklem's speech (Thu 15:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Friday's US NFP and Canada LFS, both at 13:30 UTC, are the larger test of the 1.3929–1.4014 range