22:05 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.39948
LH/LL sequence from the 1.4299 peak, compressing into a falling wedge.
The mid-October oct high at 1.4299 capped a seven-week rally from the 1.3759 sept low. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, retracing about two-thirds of that advance. Over the last two weeks the range has compressed into a falling wedge, with the wedge top running down from the 1.4068 lower high and the wedge base resting on the 1.3929 swing low. Inside that wedge, the post-midterm USD selloff has met a hawkish BoC, pinning price just under the 1.4000 round number and below a declining EMA20 near 1.4041. RSI near 43 is mid-range, with no oversold reading at the recent lows, and daily ranges are holding around 60 pips.
Support: 1.3929, 1.3900, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4068, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4068 lower high breaks the wedge top and the LH/LL chain, also clearing the 38.2% fib of the decline
- Failure to hold the 1.3929 swing low confirms another lower-low and exposes psych 1.3900, then the 1.3759 sept low
- A sustained move back toward the 1.4299 oct high would mark a full reversal of the October–November decline
- US NFP and Canada jobs, both at 13:30 UTC Friday, could materially shift this read, depending on the relative surprise between the two