HH/HL chain off the 1.3942 London low; Asia consolidating above 1.4000.
Firmer USD after the jobless claims beat carried USD/CAD through the 1.4000 round number in NY hours, peaking at the 1.4024 session high. Early Asia is holding a tight 1.4010–1.4018 band: the rollover low has held twice on the rising trendline, the Asia high caps it, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~57.
Support: 1.40098, 1.4000, 1.39802
Resistance: 1.40183, 1.40237
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4010 rollover low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Loss of 1.4000 brings the NY rally fib 38.2% (~1.3993) and the 1.3980 NY pullback into view
Close above the 1.4018 Asia high reopens a test of the 1.4024 session high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; shallow pullback toward broken 1.4000.
USD/CAD rallied about 80 pips off the Asian low at 1.3942 and cleared the 1.4000 round number in late NY as USD recovered on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk, printing a session high at 1.4024. Post-rollover the pair has eased to 1.4010, sitting just under the 1.4018 late high, with the rally trendline converging on the round number near 1.4000. RSI(14) has cooled to about 56.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4024
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number and rally trendline undoes the breakout
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Close above the 1.4018 late high and 1.4024 session high resumes the HH sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and simultaneous US and Canada jobs data at 13:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
The rally from the London low at 1.3942 accelerated at the NY open after the jobless claims beat (189K) and cleared the 1.4000 round number, topping at a 1.4024 session high late in NY. In early Asia, a thin rollover dip to 1.4011 was bought back to 1.4018. The HH/HL chain remains intact above the 1.3981 swing low, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.40113, 1.4000, 1.39808
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4000 round number, where the rising trendline also sits, would mark a false break of the cap
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts price at the 50% retracement of the day rally fib
Holding above the 1.4011 rollover low keeps the Asian range above the broken cap
A push through the 1.4024 session high extends the NY leg
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and the simultaneous US and Canada jobs reports (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open, 1.4000 broken in NY.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.3942 London-open low through the 1.4000 round number during NY hours, peaking at the 1.4024 session high as USD clawed back losses on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. Price sits near 1.4015 in thin early-Asia trade after the rollover, with RSI(14) cooling to 68. The rising trendline off the 1.3981 swing low is intact.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 1.4024 session high resumes the NY leg; the fib retracement levels mark pullback depth if it stalls
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after the NY high · RSI 68 · price 1.40126
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3942 London low; 1.4000 broken.
USDCAD rose about 80 pips off the 1.3942 London low during NY hours. The NY leg cleared the 1.4000 round number and printed a 1.4024 session high at 21:00 UTC as the USD extended its rebound on firm labour data. Price is holding 1.4013 in thin post-rollover Asia trade, with RSI(14) easing below 70 and the 38.2% NY leg fib near 1.3993 sitting just under the round number.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39808
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number returns price to the prior range and weakens the breakout read
Break of the 1.3981 swing low and the rising support line ends the NY higher-low chain
Clearance of the 1.4024 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; holding just above 1.4000.
USDCAD climbed about 80 pips from the 1.3942 London-open low through the 1.4000 round number, topping at a 1.4024 session high late in NY hours as USD recovered on firm claims data and hawkish Fed talk. Buyers stepped in twice at the 1.3981 swing low during the NY pullback, close to the 50% fib of the day's range and on the rising trendline. Price is now drifting at 1.4013 in thin post-rollover trade, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.4024
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3981 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
A close above the 1.4024 session high extends the higher-high sequence
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
22:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY close · RSI 60 · price 1.40131
Higher-high/higher-low chain from 1.3942 London-open low, 1.4000 cap broken.
USD recovery on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk carried USDCAD 80 pips off the 1.3942 London-open low, with a late-NY breakout through the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4005 prior high into a 1.4024 session high. Price is drifting at 1.4013 after NY close on thin rollover bars, holding above the intraday rising trendline and the prior high.
Support: 1.40052, 1.4000, 1.39802
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number returns price to the 1.3980–1.4000 afternoon range
Failure to hold the 1.3980 swing low breaks the intraday rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Break above the 1.4024 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs data land together and could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended after NY breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.4018
HH/HL chain off the London low, holding above 1.4000 after the late-NY break.
USDCAD cleared the 1.3977 Asian range high on the 13:30 UTC jobless claims beat. A higher-low chain from the 1.3942 London low then carried price through the 1.4000 cap after a 1.3980–1.4005 NY-afternoon consolidation. Thin post-NY trade is holding just under the 1.4024 session high, with the 1.4005 prior high and the rising trendline below, RSI(14) at 67 and ATR near 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4024
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4005 prior high puts price back inside the 1.3980–1.4005 NY consolidation
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3980 swing low ends the higher-low chain
A close above the 1.4024 session high opens extension of the post-claims rally leg
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
21:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 76 · price 1.40196
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, holding above 1.4000.
London printed the 1.3942 low before a steady climb. NY extended it after the claims beat, and the 1.4000 round number gave way in late NY to a 1.4024 session high. The 1.3981 swing low held twice on the pullbacks, and RSI(14) at about 76 sits hot as the bar heads into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4024
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the 1.3981 swing low and the rising support line ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4024 session high keeps the late-NY extension intact
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then the US and Canada jobs reports at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain after NY breakout above Asian high and the 1.4000 cap.
London false break of the Asian low at the 1.3942 day low reversed. NY then cleared the Asian high near 1.3977, and after-hours extension took out the 1.4000 cap and the 1.4005 prior high to a 1.4024 session high, with USD recovering on the claims and productivity beats plus hawkish Fed talk. RSI(14) sits near 71 with ATR around 6.5 pips, and the day rally is held up by a higher-low chain from the 1.3980 swing low.
Support: 1.40052, 1.3980, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4005 prior high puts price back inside the pre-breakout range above 1.3980
M15 close below the higher-lows trendline and the 1.3980 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Thin post-NY/Asia liquidity near the 1.4024 session high, an area to watch for rejection or extension
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 77 · price 1.40174
HH/HL chain from London-open low, 1.4000 cleared.
NY session carried USDCAD roughly 80 pips off the 1.3942 London-open low. Price cleared the 16:00 UTC prior high at 1.4005 and the 1.4000 round number, then printed a 1.4024 session high, with higher lows at 1.3964 and the 1.3981 swing low intact. The USD recovery on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk is driving the move, and RSI(14) near 77 is stretched but consistent with the trend.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.39805
Resistance: 1.40237, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4005 prior high keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would mark a false break
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline sequence; the 38.2% rally fib sits near 1.3993
Rejection at the 1.4024 session high in thin Asia session trade would cap the leg; a clean push through opens the 1.4050 psych level
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 75 · price 1.40124
HH/HL chain since 07:00 UTC low, now above 1.4000.
Asia faded to a 1.3942 low into London open before a steady London rally took out the Asian range high near 1.3973 as USD recovered on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. NY held a double low at 1.3980–1.3981, then late NY pushed through the 1.4000 round number to a 1.4013 session high, with RSI(14) near 75 and the move riding a rising support line.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39805
Resistance: 1.40133
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would mark the breakout as a false break in thin post-NY trade
Loss of the 1.3980 double low and the rising support line breaks the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4013 session high extends the breakout leg
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into NY close · RSI 73 · price 1.40119
HH/HL chain from London low, breakout above 1.4000.
A late-NY push cleared the 1.4000 handle and the 1.4005 prior high to print a 1.4012 session high. That extends the HH/HL chain from the 1.3942 London low as USD recovered on the jobless claims beat. Higher lows at 1.3964 and the 1.3981 swing low are holding the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 73: hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3981, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.4012
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4005 prior high and 1.4000 would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3981 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence; the 1.3964 higher low sits beneath
Rejection at the 1.4012 session high in thin post-NY trade would leave a double-tap near 1.4000–1.4012
US NFP and Canada jobs at Fri 13:30 UTC (Williams 09:30 UTC earlier) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low, push through 1.4000.
USD/CAD climbed off the 1.3942 London low as USD clawed back post-election losses on the claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. Since NY open it has printed higher lows at 1.3964 and the 1.3981 swing low. The late-NY bars cleared the 1.4000 round number and the earlier 1.4005 peak to set a 1.4007 session high, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981
Resistance: 1.40068
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number would mark a false break of the cap
Loss of the 1.3981 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the NY trendline
Rejection at the 1.4007 session high would leave the 1.4000 break unconfirmed
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.4000 · RSI 66 · price 1.40038
Higher lows since London; double test of session high.
USD firmness on hawkish Fed talk carried the pair from the 1.3942 London low through the 1.3973 Asian high. Late NY hours have it back on the 1.4006 session high for a second test, with the round number at 1.4000 now underneath, the 1.3981 swing low holding the higher-low chain and RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3981, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.4006
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4000 round number leaves a double test of the 1.4006 session high
Break of the 1.3981 swing low ends the NY higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3973 Asian high
Sustained trade above the 1.4006 session high extends the London-NY rally into new range
US NFP and Canada jobs, both Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3980 after the NY session high; late-NY retest of the round number.
NY session broke above the Asian high at 1.3973 on the broad USD rebound and printed a 1.4005 session high. The pullback low at 1.3980 held twice, close to the 38.2% of the London-NY leg. Late in NY hours price is back pressing the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40052
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high extends the higher-high chain beyond the round number
Failure to hold the 1.3980 pullback low breaks the higher-low structure and exposes the 1.3973 Asian high
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs release together and could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 1.3942 London-open low; pullbacks holding above 1.3980.
A London-NY transition rally took USDCAD out of the Asian range and up to a 1.4005 session high, where the 1.4000 psych level capped it as USD recovered on the claims beat. The pullback held the 1.3980 swing low, the 38.2% retrace, twice. Late NY price is pressing the 1.3999 recent high again with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3973
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 psych cap, which is also the CAD wedge top
A break of the 1.3980 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3973 asian high
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together, with Williams at 09:30 UTC; any of these could reset this structure
Higher lows since London open; NY pullback held the 38.2% fib, price back at 1.4000.
USD pared losses on the claims beat and hawkish Fedspeak, lifting the pair about 60 pips off the 1.3942 London-open low into a rejection at the 1.4005 session high. The pullback held the 38.2% fib at the 1.3980 ny lows. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is back pressing the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 round number cap
Failure to hold the 1.3980 ny lows breaks the 38.2% fib and exposes the 1.3964 swing low
Fed Williams (09:30 UTC) and the joint US/Canada jobs reports (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3980 after session-high rejection; price pressing recent high.
USD pared losses through NY on the claims beat and hawkish Fedspeak, lifting the pair 63 pips from the 1.3942 london low to a 1.4005 session high. Price was rejected there, and the pullback held the fib 38.2 near 1.3980 four times. Late NY has pushed back to the 1.3997 recent high, just under the 1.4000 cap.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3997, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 cap and extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.3980 fib 38.2 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Repeated stalls at the 1.3997 recent high would leave a lower high under 1.4000
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read
HL at 1.3980 after 1.4005 high, pressing session top.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.3942 London-open low, and the 13:30 UTC claims beat drove the NY leg to a 1.4005 session high. That high was rejected, but the pullback held the 1.3980 NY low near the 38.2% fib, keeping the higher lows intact. Late in NY hours, price is pressing back toward the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high clears the round number and extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3980 ny low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 1.3964 pre-ny low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and the twin US/Canada jobs reports at 13:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; post-high range 1.3980–1.3990, now pressing its top.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.3942 day low at London open into NY on firm US claims and productivity data. The pair printed a 1.4005 session high and was rejected at the 1.4000 psych level. The pullback held the 1.3980 range floor near the 38.2% fib of the day's rally, and the late-NY bar closed at 1.3994 at the top of that range.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 psych rejection
Failure to hold the 1.3980 range floor and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3964 pre-data low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
Breakout from Asia/London range, now compressing under lower highs.
USDCAD broke the 1.3942–1.3960 range top during the London-NY transition and extended through NY on the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. The leg met rejection at the 1.4005 session high, just above 1.4000 psych. The pullback low at 1.3980 has held near the 38.2% fib, and price is compressing under lower highs at 1.3989 late in NY.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3974, 1.3960
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 1.3974 and the 1.3960 range top
Close above the 1.3989 lower highs reopens the 1.4005 session high and 1.4000 psych
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP and Canada jobs together at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London-open low intact; lower highs since 1.4005 peak.
USD/CAD rallied from a 1.3942 London-open low through NY hours. The move was driven by the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed talk, and it tagged a 1.4005 session high before rejection at the 1.4000 cap. Late NY, price has slipped under EMA20 and is basing at the 1.3980 pullback low, the 38.2% fib of the rally, with a lower high capping at 1.3989.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3975, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.40052
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 pullback low exposes the 50% fib and the 1.3975 prior high, then the 1.3964 swing low
Recapture of the 1.3989 lower high reopens a test of the 1.4005 session high / 1.4000 cap
Thin post-London liquidity into Asia; Friday's US NFP and Canada jobs data at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through NY session; rejection at 1.4005 session high, holding 1.3980.
USDCAD climbed from the 1.3942 london low through the NY session. The 189K US claims beat at 13:30 UTC extended the leg to a 1.4005 session high, where price was rejected at the 1.4000 cap. The pullback held the 1.3980 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and price is consolidating under the 1.3993 prior high late in NY hours with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3964 pullback low
Close above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 cap and the 1.3990 wedge-top area cited in the digest
Repeated failure at the 1.3993 prior high keeps price compressed beneath 1.4000
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC Fri, then simultaneous US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
A drop back toward the london low would bring the move back inside the Asian range
Higher lows off the Asian low, false break above 1.4000, lower highs since.
USD paring election losses after the firm claims print carried USDCAD out of the 1.3943–1.3973 Asian range through the NY session. A brief push through 1.4000 psych was rejected at the 1.4005 session high. The pullback after London close has held the 61.8% fib of the NY leg near 1.3980, with lower highs at 1.3989 capping and RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964, 1.3943
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3989 lower highs reopens the 1.4005 session high and 1.4000 psych
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 1.3980 and the NY rising support exposes the 1.3964 swing low
A drop back toward the 1.3943 Asian low would unwind the NY session leg
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London open low; pullback holding at 38.2% after the 1.4000 rejection.
USDCAD broke the 1.3977 prior high at the 13:30 UTC open on the US claims and productivity beat, then stalled at 1.4000 with a rejection off the 1.40052 session high. Late in the NY session, after London close, the pullback is holding the 1.3980 swing low near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.39422 session low to session high move. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3977, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.39949, 1.40052
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3980 swing low and the NY trendline would break the higher-low chain and expose the 1.3977 prior high
An M15 close above the 1.40052 session high would clear the 1.4000 cap
Recapturing the 1.39949 swing high would put a retest of 1.4000 in play
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP and Canada employment land simultaneously and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; pullback after 1.4005 rejection.
USD/CAD rallied about 60 pips off the 1.3942 London-open low after the 13:30 UTC US claims (189K) and productivity beats lifted USD. It broke the Asian range and the 1.3977 prior high, tagged the 1.4000 round number at a 1.4005 session high, then met rejection. Price has slipped back to 1.3982, testing the 1.3980 swing low and the 38.2% rally retrace, with RSI(14) cooled to about 55 and price holding just above EMA20.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3977, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3977 prior high and the rising trendline would break the intraday higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.3964 higher low (61.8% rally retrace) would unwind most of the NY-session advance
A recovery above the 1.3995 swing high puts the 1.4005 session high and the 1.4000 round number back in play
Friday 13:30 UTC US and Canada jobs reports could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from 1.4000 · RSI 52 · price 1.39825
Higher lows from London open, rejection at session high.
The USD rebound on the claims and productivity beats carried USDCAD from the 1.3942 London-open low to a 1.4005 session high in NY hours. Supply capped the 1.4000 psych and price has slipped back to the 1.3980 intraday hl, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the day's move, with RSI(14) cooled to around 52.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3974, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4005
What it said to watch
A close below 1.3980 breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 50% fib at 1.3974 and the rising trendline.
Losing the 1.3964 swing low would undo the London-NY advance structure.
A recovery through the 1.3993 ny highs puts the 1.4005 session high and the 1.4000 psych back in play.
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land in the same slot and could materially shift this read.
Higher lows through NY, first rejection at session high.
USD strength after the 189K jobless claims beat drove a 60-pip NY rally off the 1.3942 day low, clearing Wednesday's 1.3977 high on a chain of higher lows (1.3964 ny pivot, 1.3980 swing low). Supply capped the 1.4000 psych area, and the 1.4005 session high printed a rejection that pushed price back under the 1.3993 prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to 61.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4005
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3980 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.3964 ny pivot back in play
Sustained trade above the 1.4005 session high clears the 1.4000 psych cap
Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and the twin US/Canada jobs reports Fri 13:30 UTC can materially shift this read; a loss of the 1.3942 day low would undo the NY leg
HH/HL chain from the London-open low; NY broke above the prior high.
Late in the NY session, price sits at the 1.4000 round number. The leg started with the London-open sweep of the Asian low at 1.3942 and has kept higher lows along rising support. The NY-open claims beat (189K) broke the 1.3977 prior high, and the 1.3980 swing low held around Macklem's 15:30 UTC remarks before a 1.4005 session high, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.4005
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4000 round number keeps the breakout read intact; a slip back below exposes the 1.3980 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg
Rejection at the 1.4005 session high would mark a stall at the 1.4000 cap
An M15 close below rising support and the 1.3964 pre-NY low breaks the higher-low chain
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs release together and could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact into London close · RSI 65 · price 1.39937
HH/HL chain since the 13:30 UTC claims bar, pressing session high.
The 13:30 UTC jobless claims beat lifted the pair out of the 1.3942–1.3960 London range and through the prior high near 1.3977. A higher-low line then carried it to a 1.3995 session high during Macklem's 15:30 UTC speech. 1.3993 capped three tests before the late push, RSI(14) near 65 is firm but not stretched, and the 1.4000 round number sits just overhead.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4000 round number extends the higher-high chain past the session high
Loss of the 1.3980 swing low and the higher-low line exposes the 38.2% fib of the London low-high move near 1.3975, then the pre-data low at 1.3964
A break back below the 1.3964 pre-data low returns price to the London range above the 1.3942 london low
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC), then US NFP and Canada jobs (Fri 13:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing the round number · RSI 64 · price 1.39937
Higher-low chain from the 1.3942 London low, now above the Asian range and the prior high.
London set a 1.3942 low, then each pullback held higher. NY carried the pair through the Asian range and yesterday's 1.3977 prior high as the USD rebounded on the 189K claims print, with the push extending through Macklem's 15:30 UTC remarks. Supply has capped 1.3993–1.3995 on repeated tests into the session high just under the 1.4000 round number; RSI(14) near 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3975, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3995, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4000 round number clears the session high cap and extends the higher-high chain
Break of the intraday trendline (~1.3988) and the 1.3980 swing low would end the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.3975 prior high (38.2% of the London low–session high leg) puts the 1.3964 pullback low back in focus
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
Higher lows since 1.3942 Asian low; Asian range broken higher in NY.
USD/CAD bounced from the 1.3942 Asian low and broke above the Asian range high in the first hour of NY after the 189K claims beat, then printed a session high at 1.3993 near the digest's 1.3990 wedge top. The 15:15 UTC bar rejected the level, and price is holding near 1.3982, at the 23.6% retracement of the NY leg, with RSI(14) cooling to 60.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3964
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem's speech from 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read, particularly any softening of the hike language
M15 close back below the 1.3978 prior high reopens the 1.3964 swing low and the NY leg fib 50% near 1.3968
M15 close above the 1.3993 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 70 · price 1.39914
HH/HL chain since London open, prior high broken.
USD firmed from the 1.3942 London low, which briefly swept under the Asian range. The 13:30 UTC claims beat drove a breakout through yesterday's 1.3977 prior high, with a 14:30 retest that held. Price is pressing the 1.3993 session high just under 1.4000 psych, RSI(14) near 70 and the intraday trend line rising from the 13:00 swing low at 1.3964.
Support: 1.39775, 1.39638, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.39934, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem speaking at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3977 prior high negates the breakout
Break under the intraday trend line and the 1.3964 swing low ends the HH/HL chain
Close above 1.4000 psych extends the London rally beyond the session high
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 68 · price 1.39859
Higher lows since London open; NY broke above yesterday's prior high.
USD recovered on the 189K claims beat and productivity print, reversing the Asian-session slide. The 1.3942 London low held, and the rising trendline carried NY through yesterday's 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3993 session high, at the 1.3990 wedge top flagged in the CAD digest. RSI(14) is near 68, and the session-high wick shows supply capping just under the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3964, 1.3953
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem speaks at 15:30 UTC; a softer tone on growth or hike timing could extend the push toward the 1.4000 round number.
An M15 close back below the 1.3977 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.3964 ny low, the 50% retracement of the London-NY rally.
A break of the rising trendline near 1.3953 ends the higher-low sequence.
Friday's US NFP and Canada jobs data at 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk to this structure.
15:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback after impulse · RSI 69 · price 1.39859
Higher lows since the 1.3942 day low; yesterday's 1.3977 high broken in NY.
USD/CAD built higher lows through London off the 1.3942 day low, which marks the window low. Firm 13:30 GMT US data (claims 189K, productivity 3.6%) pushed it through yesterday's 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3993 session high. RSI(14) is near 69 and the first NY pullback is holding above the prior high.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3993, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Macklem speech at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3977 prior high, near the 38.2% rally retrace at 1.3974, undercuts the breakout
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the intraday chain
A close above the 1.3993 session high puts the 1.4000 round number in play
Fri 13:30 GMT US NFP and Canada jobs land together
14:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 67 · price 1.39791
Higher lows since London open; prior-day high broken, being retested.
The pair bounced from the 1.3942 london low near the seven-week low. Firm US claims and productivity at 13:30 GMT lifted it through the prior high at 1.3977 to a 1.3987 session high early in the NY session. The latest bars are holding just above the broken prior high, RSI(14) cooling to ~66, with the 13:00 swing low at 1.3964 aligned with the 50% fib of the rally.
Support: 1.39775, 1.39638, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.39866, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3977 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Session high 1.3987 and the 1.4000 round number: area to watch for rejection or break
Loss of the rally trendline and the 1.3964 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 1.3942 london low
BoC Macklem speech at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC loom
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 73 · price 1.39847
Higher lows from London low, break above prior high.
After an Asian slide, London set the london low at 1.3942 and built higher lows. The NY open, with US claims at 189K and productivity beating, pushed price through the prior high at 1.3977 to a fresh 24h high near 1.3985; RSI(14) is around 73, hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3985, 1.4000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3977 prior high on a retest keeps the breakout intact; slipping back below it turns the move into a false break
M15 close below the 1.3964 pullback low (50% fib of the London-NY leg) breaks the higher-lows sequence
1.4000 round number above the 24h high is the next area to watch for rejection or break
BoC Macklem speaks at 15:30 UTC, about an hour out, and could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 70 · price 1.39801
Higher lows since London low; prior-day high broken.
London open swept the Asian low and printed the london low at 1.3942. The London rally has built higher lows since. The US claims beat (189K) in the first hour of NY pushed USDCAD through yesterday's 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3981 session high, with RSI(14) near 70 and the 1.3990 wedge top about 10 pips overhead.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3990, 1.4000
What it said to watch
BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding 1.3977 prior high as support keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it marks a false break
Loss of the 1.3964 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London rally, breaks the higher-low chain
1.3990 wedge top and 1.4000 round number are areas to watch for rejection or break
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 1.39801
Higher-low chain off London low, break above prior high.
USD/CAD has printed steady higher lows since the 1.3942 London low. The US jobless claims beat at the NY open lifted price through the 1.3977 prior high to a fresh session high near 1.3981, with RSI(14) around 70. The 1.3990 wedge top and the 1.4000 round number are the next overhead references.
Support: 1.3977, 1.3964, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3990, 1.4000
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3977 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the 1.3964 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Macklem at 15:30 UTC (17:30 broker) could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the 1.4000 round number extends the move beyond the wedge top
A retracement holding the fib 38.2% near 1.3966 keeps the London low-to-high leg intact
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London-open low, pressing prior high · RSI 66 · price 1.39742
Higher lows since 07:00 GMT; 1.3977 prior high capping on repeat tests.
London open swept the Asian range low to a 1.3942 session low, near the seven-week low in the CAD digest, and reversed as USD recovered on strong US data. A higher-low sequence carried price back to the 1.3977 prior high, which drew a rejection at 12:45 GMT. The 13:00 dip held the 38.2% fib at 1.3964, and the current bar is retesting the cap as US jobless claims print, RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3960, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 prior high opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.3964 exposes the 50% fib at 1.3960 and weakens the higher-low chain
Break back below the 1.3942 session low would negate the London-open sweep reversal
Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT and BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, stalling at prior high · RSI 64 · price 1.39707
Higher lows since London open; NY push rejected at 1.3977 prior high.
London swept the Asian low into the 1.3942 London low and reversed, building higher lows along a rising tl into NY as the dollar recovered on Fed hike pricing. The first NY push stalled at the 1.3977 prior high, with a rejection wick and RSI(14) easing to about 64.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 prior high clears the window top and opens the 1.4000 round number
Break of the rising tl near 1.3960 (also the 50% fib) puts the 1.3942 London low back in focus
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the structure
13:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 68 · price 1.39707
Higher lows from London low, capped at 1.3977.
USD/CAD put in a session low at 1.3942 at the London open, near the Sep-16 low, then built higher lows as the dollar recovered on the data focus. The climb stalled at the 1.3977 prior high, yesterday's NY peak, with a wick rejection at 12:45 UTC; RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 prior high opens the 1.4000 round number
Loss of the 1.3960 break level (50% fib zone) and the trendline puts the 1.3942 session low back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift this read
BoC's Macklem speaks at 15:30 UTC, a CAD-side risk for the NY session
12:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, RSI near 70 · RSI 69 · price 1.39684
Higher lows since 1.3942 London-open low; 1.3960 cap cleared.
Asian selling on post-midterm USD weakness bottomed at the 1.3942 session low into London open. London then printed higher lows along a rising trendline and cleared the 1.3960 cap, now a flip level, as USD recovered on data focus. Price has retraced about 74% of the decline from the 1.3977 prior high, with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3953, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3960 flip level would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the London trendline near 1.3953 ends the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.3977 prior high (NY session high) completes the decline fib retrace and brings the 1.4000 round number into view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC: softer growth emphasis vs repeat-hawkish line is the CAD swing factor
Loss of the 1.3942 session low reopens the Asian downside leg
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, pressing Asian range top · RSI 68 · price 1.39638
Higher-low chain since London open, approaching Asian range high.
Asia faded from 1.3973 to a 1.3942 London low at the open. Since then a steady higher-low chain has lifted price back to 1.3964, with RSI(14) near 68, as USD pares its post-midterm losses. The asia high at 1.3973 and yesterday's prior high at 1.3977 cap the move into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3973, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3973 asia high reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 1.3977 prior high
Break of the higher-low trendline and 1.3953 higher low ends the London recovery structure
Failure back below the 1.3942 london low confirms a lower-low
US jobless claims and ULC at 13:30 GMT, Fed's Hammack at 13:50 and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, momentum moderate · RSI 58 · price 1.39581
Higher-low chain since London open after a false break of the Asian low.
London opened with a false break below the Asian low near 1.3948, tagging 1.3942 (london low) before a higher-low chain from the 1.3945 swing low lifted price to a session high at 1.3964. The USD is paring post-midterm losses into the London-NY transition. Price is holding above the 1.3953 higher low with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3945, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3973, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3953 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3945 swing low
Loss of the 1.3942 london low negates the false-break read
Acceptance above the 1.3964 session high opens the Asian high at 1.3973, then the 1.3977 prior high
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC, during NY hours, is a second event risk for CAD
12:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since 07:00 UTC · RSI 56 · price 1.39581
London HH/HL chain capped at 61.8% retrace.
The Asia session drifted from the 1.3973 asian high to a 1.3942 session low on continued USD selling. From there, London built a higher-low chain as the dollar pared losses in European trade. The bounce stalled at 1.3964, the session high and the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3977 prior high to 1.3942 drop, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3973, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3964 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens 1.3973 asian high, then 1.3977 prior high
Break below the 1.3953 higher low and the London trendline ends the HL chain, exposing 1.3942 session low and 1.3929 prior low
US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC, then Hammack at 13:50, land in the first hour of NY and could shift this read
Macklem speech at 15:30 UTC is a second event risk for CAD later in NY hours
11:46 UTC
Down from overnight high, basing through London · RSI 58 · price 1.39557
Higher lows under a 1.3960 session-high cap.
USDCAD slid through Asia from the 1.3978 overnight high as broad USD selling continued, then made a false break below the Asian low to the 1.3942 London low at the open. Late London has built higher lows along a rising trendline under the 1.3960 session high, which is also the 50% fib retrace. Price is sitting on the 38.2% level and the EMA50 near 1.3956.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3978
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3960 session high clears the 50% fib retrace and exposes the 1.3978 overnight high
A break of the rising trendline near 1.3953 followed by loss of the 1.3942 London low puts Wednesday's 1.3929 prior low back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, Hammack at 13:50 GMT and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London higher lows off 1.3942 session low, flat cap at 1.3960.
After the overnight slide from the 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3942 session low just before London, London has printed higher lows, last at 1.3953. Supply is capping at 1.3960, the 50% retrace of that drop, with RSI(14) near 55 and price only marginally above flat EMAs as broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep keeps the pair pinned near Wednesday's lows.
Support: 1.3953, 1.3945, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3973, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3960 50% retrace opens the 1.3973 Asian high and the 1.3977 prior high
Break of the London rising line and the 1.3945 london low exposes the 1.3942 session low
Loss of the 1.3953 higher low turns the London recovery back into a range
BoE 12:00 GMT, US Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem 15:30 UTC: tone versus Tuesday's hawkish message is a CAD swing factor
London higher lows below 50% retrace of 1.3977–1.3942 drop.
Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep drove the Asia slide from 1.3977. London opened with a false break of the Asian low and printed a 1.3942 london low, then a chain of higher lows along the London trendline. The session high at 1.3960 is capping at the 50% fib of that decline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) under 6 pips into late London.
Support: 1.3952, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.3973, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3960 session high clears the 50% fib and opens the path to the 1.3973 asian high and the 1.3977 prior high
Loss of the 1.3952 higher low breaks the London trendline and puts the 1.3942 london low back in focus, with the 1.3929 prior low below
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London false break, capped at 1.3960.
London open briefly broke the Asian range low and printed a session low at 1.3942, then reclaimed it and built higher lows along a rising trendline. Price is now stalling at the 1.3960 session high, which sits on the 50% fib of the 1.3978–1.3942 drop, while the digest still has USD offered after the Democratic sweep.
Support: 1.3950, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.3960, 1.39775
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3960 session high clears the 50% fib and opens the 1.3978 prior high
Break of the 1.3950 higher low and trendline returns focus to the 1.3942 session low
Loss of 1.3942 exposes Wednesday's 1.3929 prior low
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Overnight downtrend, flattening into London · RSI 54 · price 1.39544
Tight London range above the session low, lower highs from 1.3977.
Broad USD selling pulled USDCAD from the 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3942 session low at the London open, extending the overnight decline. London has since held a tight 1.3945–1.3959 range, and its 1.3959 high sits near the 50% retracement of that decline. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR(14) is compressed at about 5 pips.
Support: 1.39454, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39591, 1.3964
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3959 london high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3964, then the 1.3977 prior high
Loss of the 1.3945 london low and the 1.3942 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.3929 prior low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could break the London range
BoC Gov. Macklem at 15:30 UTC: any softer tone than Tuesday could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Pullback stalled, London basing · RSI 55 · price 1.39529
Higher lows off 1.3942 session low, capped at 1.3959.
The overnight slide from the 1.3977 prior high bottomed at a 1.3942 session low early in London. That is a 61.8–78.6% retracement of yesterday's 1.3929–1.3977 rally. London has since printed a higher low at 1.3945 and rotated up into 1.3959, with price pinned near the 50% level at 1.3953 as the post-election USD selloff keeps the dollar heavy.
Support: 1.39454, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39591
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3959 London high opens the path toward the 1.3977 prior high
Loss of the 1.3945 higher low and the 1.3942 session low breaks the rising lows, exposing the 1.3929 prior low
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday range after overnight decline, rebuilding · RSI 55 · price 1.39548
Asian low swept, London higher lows under 1.3959.
Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep pulled the pair off the 1.3977 nov-4 high through the Asia session. London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to a 1.3942 session low, then printed rising lows. Price now sits near the 50% of the nov-4 rally fib, compressing under the 1.3959 london high with a flat EMA50 overhead.
Support: 1.3945, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3959 london high breaks the London range and puts the 1.3977 nov-4 high back in view
Loss of the 1.3945 rising lows, then the 1.3942 session low, exposes the 1.3929 nov-4 low
BoE at 12:00 GMT and US jobless claims plus Fed's Hammack from 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC: any softer tone than Tuesday is a CAD risk for this range
Higher lows since the London open, capped below the 50% retracement.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range to a 1.3942 london low, then reversed into a chain of higher lows. That climb has stalled at a 1.3959 session high just under the 50% retracement of the 1.3977–1.3942 drop, with price pinned at the EMA50 and RSI(14) at 55. Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep has kept the pair well below yesterday's 1.3977 prior high.
Support: 1.3945, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3964, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3959 session high exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3964
Loss of the 1.3945 swing low breaks the London higher-lows line and puts the 1.3942 london low back in play
A break of 1.3942 reopens yesterday's 1.3929 prior low
BoE at 12:00 GMT, then US jobless claims at 13:30 and Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could reset the session range
BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC: any softer growth tone versus Tuesday's hawkish message could shift CAD sharply
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 46 · price 1.39498
Lower highs from 1.3978; London range 1.3942–1.3958.
USD/CAD slid through Asia from the 1.3973 Asia high on post-election USD selling. London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to a 1.3942 session low before buyers stepped in, but the bounce stalled at a 1.3958 session high, in line with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3978 prior high to 1.3942 drop. Mid-London, price is chopping in that range, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR at roughly 6 pips.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3973, 1.3978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3958 session high / 38.2% fib reopens the 1.3973 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.3942 session low exposes Wednesday's 1.3929 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could break the London range
BoC Gov. Macklem at 15:30 UTC: any shift toward growth concerns could shift the CAD read
Lower highs from 1.3977, London range 1.3942–1.3958.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia from the 1.3977 prior high as the USD stayed heavy after the midterm sweep. The London-open dip below the 1.3947 Asian low to a 1.3942 london low was reclaimed within one bar, and price has since chopped between that low and a 1.3958 session high, sitting flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3942 london low turns the false break into a range break and exposes yesterday's 1.3929 prior low
M15 close above the 1.3958 session high reopens the 1.3977 prior high and the 38.2% retrace of the prior high–london low leg
US Jobless Claims and ULC at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could break the London range
BoC Gov. Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
Lower highs from 1.3977; London ranging 1.3942–1.3958 after sweep of Asian low.
USD softness after the midterm sweep drove the overnight slide from the 1.3977 swing high into a 1.3947–1.3958 Asian band. At the London open price swept below the Asian low to a 1.3942 london low and was rejected. Two caps at the 1.3958 range top keep the descending line of lower highs intact, and price now sits on the 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY rally from the 1.3929 prior low.
Support: 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3942 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.3929 prior low
Close above the 1.3958 range top breaks the descending line and reopens the 1.3977 swing high
US Jobless Claims / Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift USD tone
BoC Gov. Macklem at 15:30 UTC is a high-impact CAD risk for this read
Lower highs; London range 1.3942–1.3958 inside Asia's decline.
USD/CAD has given back about 62% of Wednesday's NY rally from 1.3929 to 1.3977. Asia ground lower, and London has rejected twice at the 1.3958 session high, keeping the lower-high sequence intact with price back at 1.3947. Broad USD selling after the midterm sweep is the driver; RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39579
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3942 london low exposes the 1.3929 prior low near the seven-week low
M15 close above the 1.3958 session high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 1.3977 prior high
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding the 61.8% NY rally fib near 1.3948 keeps the pullback a retracement rather than a full reversal
Lower highs from 1.3977 through Asia; London-open low at 1.3942, capped at 1.3957.
USD/CAD slid through Asia from the 1.3977 prior high to a 1.3942 session low on the London open, in line with the broad post-midterm USD selling. The early London bounce stalled at 1.3957 (london high), on the descending trendline and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg. The 1.3946 london dip has held since, and RSI(14) is flat near 49 with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.39457, 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39573, 1.39597
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3957 london high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with fib 50% at 1.3960 then 1.3977 prior high overhead
Loss of the 1.3946 london dip and 1.3942 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3929 prior low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3977; London broke the Asian low, then the bounce failed at 1.3957.
Asia bled lower from the 1.3977 prior high as broad post-midterm USD selling extended. London open broke the Asian low to a 1.3942 london low, and the bounce was rejected at the 1.3957 session high near the 38.2% retrace. Price is back below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 1.39422, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39573, 1.39772
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3957 session high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3942 london low exposes the 1.3929 prior low from yesterday's NY session
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and BoC's Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 51 · price 1.3954
Lower highs since 1.3977; Asian low swept at London open, rebound capped at 1.3956.
USDCAD extended its slide from the 1.3977 late-NY high through the Asia session on broad post-midterm USD selling. London open dipped below the 1.3947 Asian low to a 1.3942 london low and rebounded quickly, stalling at 1.3956, the 38.2% fib of the decline and the latest lower high. RSI(14) is back near 51.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3973
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3956 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain and opens the path to the 1.3973 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3942 london low exposes yesterday's 1.3929 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speaks at 15:30 UTC; growth-focused remarks would challenge the CAD-firm backdrop
Lower highs since NY close; tight 1.3942–1.3956 range into London open.
USDCAD slid through Asia from the 1.3974 Asian high to a 1.3942 Asian low before bouncing into London open. Price is now pressing the 1.3956 range top, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3977–1.3942 drop. Broad USD selling after the midterm sweep keeps the pair near the 1.3929 prior low.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3974
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3956 range top opens the 50% fib near 1.3960 and the 1.3974 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3942 Asian low exposes the 1.3929 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3977; Asian low swept at London open, then reclaimed.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian low to the 1.3942 london low. That dip was quickly reclaimed, and price is now pressing the Asia trendline and EMA20 near 1.3951 after an Asia-session lower-high sequence from the 1.3977 wed high. Broad post-midterm USD selling drove the overnight slide, while Wednesday's 1.3929 wed low marks the floor of the 24h range.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3957, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3957 asia lh, near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high chain and opens 1.3977 wed high
Failure back below the 1.3942 london low reopens the 1.3929 wed low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.39482
Lower highs into a tight 1.3947–1.3956 box, London open probe below.
The post-ADP bounce stalled at 1.3977 (prior high), and renewed USD selling through Asia boxed price into 1.3947–1.3956. London open dipped to a 1.3942 session low before buyers stepped back in. Price sits below both EMAs, with a lower-highs trendline pressing on the range top.
Support: 1.3942, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3942 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3929 prior low
Close above the 1.3956 range top and the lower-highs trendline (~38.2% fib) neutralises the overnight slide; 1.3977 prior high above
US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed Hammack 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem 15:30 UTC is CAD-side event risk for the NY session
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late NY · RSI 33 · price 1.39437
Asian range low broken at London open; lower-high chain from 1.3977.
USD selling resumed in Asia after the ADP bounce faded. Price fell from the 1.3977 late-NY high and held a 1.3947–1.3958 Asian range for most of the session. London open has broken the range low, printing a 1.3943 session low with RSI(14) near 33 and yesterday's 1.3929 prior low next below.
Support: 1.39429, 1.39293, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39472, 1.39576
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3947 range low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3929 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3900 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3958 range high, near the 38.2% fib, would end the lower-high sequence
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia session sold off from the 1.3973 Asia high and the 1.3977 prior high to the 1.3947 Asia low, in line with broad USD selling after the midterm sweep. Price is now compressing into a ~10-pip band under lower highs at 1.3954 heading into London open. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR(14) is under 4 pips.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3954, 1.3973
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 Asia low breaks the base and exposes Wednesday's 1.3929 wed low
M15 close above the 1.3954 lower highs line ends the compression and brings the 1.3973 Asia high back in view
A return to the 0.618 retracement near 1.3966 would put the 1.3977 prior high back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, Hammack at 13:50 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Heavy after Asian sell-off, now compressing · RSI 46 · price 1.39515
Tight Asian range 1.3947–1.3958 with lower highs, below the NY high.
Wednesday's NY rebound from the 1.3929 prior low stalled at the 1.3977 NY high. Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep pushed the pair back down through the Asia session, and it has since compressed into a 1.3947–1.3958 range with lower highs into the London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR is under 4 pips, so the range remains intact.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3958, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.3929 prior low
Close above the 1.3958 range top and the Asia lower-highs trendline ends the compression read and brings the 1.3977 NY high and the 50% fib (~1.3962) into view
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, with Challenger cuts at 10:30 UTC, could break the Asian range
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 46 · price 1.39515
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.3947 Asian low.
Asia faded the 1.3977 double top. Price slid to the 1.3947 Asian low, which has held three times while lower highs compress against it into the London open. Broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep keeps price below both EMAs. ATR is a thin ~4 pips.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3974, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 Asian low exposes Wednesday's 1.3929 day low
Close above the 1.3956 lower highs line breaks the compression and reopens 1.3974 Asian high
Reclaim of 1.3977 double top invalidates the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Macklem 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia session sold off from the 1.3977 session high to the 1.3947 Asian low as broad USD selling resumed. Price is now compressing just above that low beneath a falling trendline of lower highs capped near 1.3956, heading into the London open. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3962, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 asian low extends the Asia selloff toward the 1.3929 prior low from Wednesday
M15 close above the 1.3956 lower high breaks the falling trendline; the 1.3962 swing high is next
Recovery through the 1.3977 session high negates the Asia selloff
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC could reset the intraday structure
Late Asia session. Price slid about 27 pips from the 1.3974 asian high and is now compressing in a tight 1.3947–1.3957 band. Successive lower highs under the trendline are pressing onto the asian low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's rebound from the 1.3929 prior low. The broad USD selling in the digest is consistent with the drift lower.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3957, 1.3974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 asian low exposes the 1.3929 prior low
Close above the 1.3957 range top and the descending trendline negates the lower-high sequence; 1.3974 asian high is next
London open in under 2h typically expands the current ~4-pip ATR
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near Asian low · RSI 45 · price 1.39515
Lower highs through Asia after a double top at 1.3977.
Wednesday's NY rebound from the 1.3929 swing low stalled twice at the 1.3977 prior high. Asia has faded since then, printing lower highs into the 1.3947 Asian low as post-election USD selling persists. Price is compressing just above that low late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3977
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3947 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.3929 swing low
A recovery above the 1.3956 lower high breaks the Asia sequence and points back toward the 1.3977 prior high
London open is likely to set the session range; the impulse out of the Asian range defines the next leg
US Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia after double-top neckline break; holding above Asian low.
The NY rebound off the 1.3929 Wed low stalled in a double top at 1.3977, and the 1.3962 neckline gave way early in the Asia session as broad post-midterm USD selling resumed. Late Asia shows a run of lower highs capping near 1.3956, with price compressing just above the 1.3947 Asian low, which sits close to the 61.8% fib of the NY rebound. ATR is near 4 pips, so ranges have narrowed ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3962, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3947 asian low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3929 wed low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 1.3956 negates the Asia downtrend read; 1.3962 neckline is next
London open in ~2h is likely to resolve the current compression
US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.39505
Lower highs against a flat 1.3947–1.3950 base.
Asia reversed Wednesday's NY recovery, dropping from the 1.3974 Asian high to a 1.3947 session low as broad USD selling resumed after the midterm sweep. Price is now pinned under a falling line of lower highs near 1.3956, with a flat base at 1.3947–1.3950 and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3947, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3974
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3947 session low opens the 1.3929 prior-day low
Close above the lower highs line near 1.3956 negates the compression, with the 1.3974 Asian high next
London open is the first test of the 1.3947–1.3956 band
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs off NY double top; tight 1.3948–1.3958 range since 01:15 UTC.
Late in the Asia session, price has unwound the NY rally from the 1.3977 double top. It is now retesting the 1.3948 asian low, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3929–1.3977 move. A 1.3948–1.3956 range has held since 01:15 UTC with RSI(14) near 35, as post-midterm USD softness keeps the pair below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 asian low breaks the range and the 61.8% fib, exposing the 1.3929 wed low
Recovery through the 1.3956 range top re-opens the path back toward the 1.3977 double top
London open could set a new session range outside the Asian 1.3948–1.3977 band
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC Macklem (15:30 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asia session has unwound Wednesday's NY recovery, falling from 1.3973 to retest the 1.3948 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 35. Lower Asian highs at 1.3957–1.3955 are pressing against flat lows, while Wednesday's London low at 1.3946 sits just beneath. Broad post-midterm USD selling remains the backdrop.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3946, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3956, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3946 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3929 NY low
Close back above the 1.3956 Asian highs breaks the Asia downtrend line and neutralises the compression
1.3977 NY high caps the window. Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs pressing a flat 1.3948-1.3950 floor.
Asia faded from the 1.3974 asian high, retracing the NY rally off the 1.3929 prior low. Demand has held near 1.3948, the asian low and 61.8% fib of that rally, while lower highs near 1.3957 compress price below both EMAs. USD softness after the midterm sweep is the driver, with lower crude limiting CAD gains.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3957, 1.3974, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 asian low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3929 prior low
Close above 1.3957 lower highs and the asia lower highs trendline breaks the Asian sequence toward the 1.3974 asian high and 1.3977 ny high
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Macklem 15:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs into a 1.3950 floor, coiling on the descending trendline.
The Asia session has unwound most of yesterday's NY rebound from 1.3929. Price slid from the 1.3977 prior high on a run of lower highs to a 1.3948 Asia low, the 61.8% fib of that leg, in line with the broad USD selling after the midterm sweep. Price is now coiling on the 1.3950 Asia floor and pressing the Asia trendline near 1.3955, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.3950, 1.39477, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39576, 1.39728
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3958 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and reopens the 1.3973 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 Asia floor and the 1.3948 Asia low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.3929 NY low
London open may resolve the Asia range; US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia after NY double top; holding 61.8% of the NY rally.
Wednesday's NY rally off the 1.3929 wed low stalled in a double top near 1.3977. Late Asia has broken the 1.3964 neckline and unwound the move to the 1.3948 asia low, the 61.8% retracement, as post-midterm USD selling resumed. Asia lower highs from 1.3974 to the 1.3958 asia lh cap each bounce, with RSI(14) near 37 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.39477, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39576, 1.39639
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3948 asia low (61.8% of the NY rally) exposes the 1.3929 wed low
M15 close above the 1.3958 asia lh breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 1.3964 neckline is the next test
Recovery through the 1.3977 double top negates the reversal read
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Macklem (15:30 UTC) could reset the intraday structure later in the day
02:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling at Asian low · RSI 31 · price 1.39516
Double top at 1.3977 broken below neckline; Asia lower highs, micro-range 1.3948–1.3958.
The Asia session has slipped through the 1.3962 neckline of the NY double top at 1.3977. It has stalled at the 1.3948 Asian low, which is the 61.8% fib of the 1.3929–1.3977 NY rally. Price is under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31, and broad USD softness after the midterm sweep keeps the pair heavy inside a 1.3948–1.3958 micro-range.
Support: 1.39477, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39576, 1.39622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 Asian low clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3929 Wed low
A move back above the 1.3958 range top and the Asia trendline eases the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.3962 neckline negates the double top read
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC Macklem (15:30 UTC) later Thursday could reset intraday structure
Asia lower highs from 1.3974, now basing 1.3948–1.3957.
The Asia session fully reversed Wednesday's late NY bounce off 1.3929. Price slid from 1.3974 to a 1.3948 session low as post-midterm USD selling resumed, holding just above Wednesday's London low near 1.3946. It is now pressing the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop at 1.3958, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3964, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3964 breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the prior high at 1.3977 back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3948 session low exposes the Wednesday NY low at 1.3929
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia leg extended · RSI 31 · price 1.39527
Lower highs from the 1.3977 double top; testing Asia low.
Asia session erased much of the NY rebound, dropping about 30 pips from the 1.3977 double top to an Asia low at 1.3948. That low sits just above Wednesday's London-session low. The move tracks the broad post-midterm USD selling; price is capped below the falling Asia trendline and the fib 50% at 1.3962, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.3948, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3962, 1.3977
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 Asia low exposes the 1.3929 wed low set before the NY rebound
Recovery above the fib 50% at 1.3962 and the Asia trendline would neutralise the down leg; 1.3977 double top caps above
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC's Macklem (15:30 UTC) later Thursday could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 30 · price 1.39527
Lower highs from 1.3974 since rollover; 61.8% fib of the 1.3929–1.3977 rally tested.
After the post-midterm USD selling printed a day low at 1.3929, the NY rally stalled twice at the 1.3977 prior high. Asia has sold back to 1.3948, the 61.8% fib of that rally, while capping each bounce at a lower high near 1.3962. RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 5–6 pips point to stretched but thin Asian trade, with the asia low the first test into London open.
Support: 1.39477, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 asia low opens a retest of the 1.3929 day low
Recovery above the 1.3962 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend line
Rejection at the 1.3977 prior high keeps that level as the session ceiling
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC Macklem (15:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.3977, Asia lower highs into 61.8% fib.
Asia session has unwound the NY rally off the 1.3977 double top, dropping about 30 pips to an asia low of 1.3948. That low sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.3929–1.3977 leg, where the 01:15 UTC bar left a long lower wick. RSI(14) is near 27 with price below both EMAs and the 1.3962 pivot now overhead, against a post-midterm USD selling backdrop.
Support: 1.39477, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39616, 1.39743
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3948 asia low and 61.8% fib exposes yesterday's 1.3929 london low
Recovery above the 1.3962 pivot neutralises the Asian breakdown, with the asia high at 1.3974 and the double top at 1.3977 above
London open is the first test of the 1.3948 wick; US claims at 13:30 UTC and BoC Macklem at 15:30 UTC later Thursday could materially shift this read
Double top near 1.3977 with neckline broken early Asia.
The rebound from the 1.3929 day low, set as USD sold off after the midterm sweep, topped out twice near 1.3977 during late NY. The early Asia session has broken the 1.3962 neckline of that double top. Price is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the recovery at 1.3959, with RSI(14) near 38 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.39523, 1.39293
Resistance: 1.39616
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3962 neckline negates the double top break and returns price to the late-NY range
Loss of the 1.3952 swing low, which aligns with the 50% fib, exposes the 1.3929 day low
Lower-high trendline from 1.3977 caps the Asian range; a break above it shifts the read back to range
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC fall outside this Asia window but could reset the intraday structure
01:02 UTC
Intraday range, early Asia leaning lower · RSI 36 · price 1.39596
1.3962–1.3977 range broken lower in Asia; lower highs off range top.
After the 1.3929 session low, price rallied on the ADP beat. NY then capped repeatedly at the 1.3977 range top. Early Asia has slipped through the 1.3962 prior floor and is holding the 1.3957 asian low, near the 38.2% of the ny rally fib, with the 1.3953 london low sitting on the 50% retrace.
Support: 1.3957, 1.3953, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3962, 1.3977
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3962 prior floor returns price to the 1.3962–1.3977 range
Failure to hold 1.3953 london low (50% of the ny rally fib) exposes the 1.3929 session low
Close above 1.3977 range top breaks the series of rejections
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Macklem 15:30 UTC later Thursday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Sideways, flat after the NY rebound · RSI 46 · price 1.39637
8h range 1.3960–1.3977, holding above the 1.3929 NY low.
USDCAD bounced from the 1.3929 NY low after the ADP beat and has ranged 1.3960–1.3977 since mid-NY, with three rejections at the range top. Early Asia is pressing the range low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and price sits just below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3960, 1.3946, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3960 range low exposes the London low at 1.3946, then the NY low at 1.3929
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top opens yesterday's Asian high at 1.3998
Challenger cuts at 10:30 UTC, US claims at 13:30 UTC and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could break the range later today
00:31 UTC
Recovering from session low, stalling below range top · RSI 53 · price 1.39692
Higher lows off 1.3929, capped twice at 1.3977; tight early-Asia range.
Post-midterm USD selling drove USD/CAD to a 1.3929 session low into the NY open. The NY rebound from there was capped twice at the 1.3977 range top. Early Asia trade is thin, sitting just under EMA20 between the 1.3962 swing low and the range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3953, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.3998
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3962 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the fib 50% at 1.3953, then the 1.3929 session low
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top opens the prior Asian high at 1.3998
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and BoC Macklem (15:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.3929 under a flat 1.3977 cap.
Midterm-driven USD selling took the pair to a 1.3929 session low around midday UTC. Price then rebounded about 45 pips after the ADP beat, printing higher lows at 1.3952 and 1.3962, while the 1.3977 triple high capped three NY-hour pushes. Asia session has opened quiet, with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 1.3962, 1.3952, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 triple high breaks the cap and opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3962 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3952 swing low
A return below 1.3952 puts the 1.3929 session low back in play
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-midterm USD selling printed a 1.3929 day low during NY hours. The ADP beat then drove a ~45-pip recovery, now compressing as rising support lifts swing lows into a 1.3977 range top that has rejected price three times. The Asia session is opening quiet in thin liquidity; the late spike to the 1.3964 swing low was bought back.
Support: 1.3964, 1.3929
Resistance: 1.3977, 1.4000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3977 range top opens the 1.4000 round number
Close below the 1.3964 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.3929 day low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Macklem at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read