22:04 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October top, momentum slowing · RSI 37 · price 1.39579
Lower highs from 1.4299; compressing in a 1.3941–1.4015 band near the 61.8% fib.
The September rally from the 1.3759 sept low stalled at a 1.4293/1.4299 double top on Oct 5 and Oct 14. The pair has since printed a chain of lower highs, and it has traded below a rolling-over EMA(50) since the Oct 22 session. For the past eight sessions price has compressed between the 1.3941 swing low and a 1.4015 range top, with the 1.4068 lower high capping. That compression sits around the 61.8% retracement of the Sep–Oct rally (1.3966) and inside a falling wedge. Post-midterm USD selling and a hawkish BoC have kept the pair heavy, but CAD's soft growth data has so far limited follow-through below 1.3950.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3875, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4068, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3941 swing low confirms a lower-low below the wedge bottom and exposes the 78.6% fib at 1.3875
- Daily close above the 1.4068 lower high breaks the wedge top and the October lower-high sequence
- Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada LFS land together and could materially shift this read
- BoC Macklem Thu 15:30 UTC: any softening on hikes tests the 1.4015 range top
- RSI near 37 with no oversold reading; a push into the low 30s near the sept low would mark a stretched leg