Lower highs since 0.8298, tight late-NY range 0.8282–0.8290.
The 29K NFP miss sent price to 0.8227, undercutting the London low at 0.8266 before reversing. The rebound stalled at the 0.8298 post-NFP high, well below the 0.8327 Asian peak. Late NY has compressed between the NY low at 0.8282 and the range top at 0.8290 into the Friday close, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.8282, 0.8271, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8298
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8290 range top reopens the 0.8298 post-NFP high
Break of the 0.8282 NY low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8271 and the London low at 0.8266
Weekend gap risk at the open; Mon ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Down on the day, post-NFP recovery stalling · RSI 49 · price 0.8286
Lower highs off 0.8298 NY high, late-NY compression 0.8282–0.8289.
The 29K NFP miss and the franc's safe-haven bid sent the pair through the London low to the 0.8227 nfp low, then it recovered fully to the 0.8298 ny high. Since then, lower highs have compressed price into a thin late-NY band between the 0.8282 late low and the 0.8289 lower high into the weekly close, with RSI(14) flat near 49, price just under EMA20/EMA50 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.8282, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8289 lower high and lower-highs trendline breaks the compression; 0.8298 ny high and 0.8300 sit above
Failure to hold the 0.8282 late low exposes the 0.8267 post-nfp hl, which is the 38.2–50% zone of the post-NFP fib
0.8327 asian high remains the day's upper bound; only a reclaim of 0.8300 brings it back into view
Weekend gap risk on the open; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next catalyst for Fed-hike repricing
Lower highs off 0.82978, late low 0.82823 holding.
The NFP miss swept the London lows down to the nfp low at 0.82271 before CHF demand faded and price rebounded to a post-NFP high at 0.82978. Since 16:30 UTC late NY has printed lower highs, the latest at 0.82893, with the 19:15 UTC late low at 0.82823 holding. Ranges are compressing into the weekly close, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82893, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.82893 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.82978 post-NFP high and 0.8300 round number back in view
Failure to hold the 0.82823 late low exposes the 0.82674 higher low near the 38.2% retracement of the NFP rebound
A move back through the 0.82271 nfp low would negate the post-NFP rebound
Weekend gap risk into Monday's US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 16:30 UTC rebound high.
The NFP miss spiked USDCHF to 0.8227 at 12:30 UTC. The NFP rebound then ran into rejection at the 0.8298 rebound high, just under the broken Asian low near 0.8290 and 0.8300. Late NY has printed a lower high at 0.8289 and a swing low at 0.8282 near the 23.6% retrace, with RSI(14) around 38 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82893, 0.82978
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8282 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8267 higher low
A break of the 0.8267 higher low exposes the 0.8227 NFP low
A close above the 0.8289 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8298 rebound high
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs off 0.8298 NY high, holding above 0.8282.
The NFP miss drove a spike low to 0.8227, which was fully reclaimed into a 0.8298 NY high. Price has since printed lower highs into the end of NY hours, sitting just above the 0.8282 swing low and below EMA20. RSI(14) is near 43 and ATR has compressed to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8298 ny high and 0.8300 round number breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8282 swing low exposes the 0.8267 post-nfp low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8271
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.8298 in late NY, holding above 0.8274 higher low.
USD/CHF slid from the 0.8327 Asia high as the franc drew safe-haven demand, then spiked to the 0.8227 NFP low on the payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) before rebounding to the 0.8298 post-NFP high. Late NY has since printed lower highs under the 0.8290 pivot. Price is drifting toward the 23.6% fib near 0.8281, RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8274 higher low exposes the 0.8267 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8271
Reclaim of the 0.8290 pivot and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8298 post-NFP high
A break of the 0.8227 NFP low would extend the day's downtrend structure
Thin late-NY Friday trade; Mon ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled USD driver
19:17 UTC
Post-NFP rebound stalling, lower highs in late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.82857
Lower highs off 0.8298 ny high, price pinned near 0.8285 late ny low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USDCHF to a 0.8227 nfp low before a rebound stalled at the 0.8298 ny high, just shy of 0.8300 psych. Since then, late NY has carved lower highs back to the 38.2% fib of the 0.8267–0.8298 leg, with price under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50 just above the 0.8285 late ny low.
Support: 0.82847, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8285 late ny low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.8279 and the 0.8267 post-nfp low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8298 ny high reopens 0.8300 psych and the 0.8327 asia high
A return under the post-nfp low would put the 0.8227 nfp low back in play
Thin after-London-close liquidity into the weekend; Monday's ISM Services print at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
V-recovery from NFP spike low, now tight consolidation 0.8285–0.8298.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USDCHF through the London low to a 0.8227 nfp low, but the move was fully reclaimed within the hour and buyers held a 0.8267 swing low before lifting price to a 0.8298 session high. That high has capped three tests and price is drifting in a tight 0.8285–0.8298 band into the late NY session, with less than a quarter of the nfp rebound retraced and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.82847, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8285 pullback low breaks the rebound trendline and opens a deeper retracement of the nfp rebound toward the 0.8267 swing low
Close above the 0.8298 session high and 0.8300 round number would extend the post-NFP recovery out of the consolidation
Friday NY close thins liquidity; next scheduled risk is ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7)
18:46 UTC
Post-NFP rebound stalling, lower highs into late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.82883
V-rebound from 0.8227 NFP low capped at 0.8298 NY high; tightening 0.8285–0.8298 band.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to 0.8227, but that low was fully rejected and price recovered to the 0.8298 NY high, roughly the base of the earlier Asian range. Late NY is printing lower highs along a short trendline under that NY high, with the late NY low at 0.8285 holding and price sitting just under EMA20 as the Friday session winds down.
Support: 0.82847, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8285 late NY low opens the 23.6% fib area near 0.8281 and the post-NFP HL at 0.8267
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8298 NY high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Thin late-NY Friday liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to this read
Late-NY range 0.8285–0.8298, lower highs since the rebound top.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a spike low to 0.8227. That move swept the earlier 0.8257 lows before the pair recovered to the 0.8298 rebound high. Late in the NY session, after London close, price has printed lower highs down to 0.8292 and is now sitting on the 0.8285 range low, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR at about 7 pips.
Support: 0.82847, 0.82737, 0.82708
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8285 range low exposes the 0.8274 swing low and the 38.2% fib of the post-NFP rebound at 0.8271
A close back above the 0.8292 lower high and the 0.8298 rebound high puts the 0.8300 round number back in play
Liquidity thins into the Friday close. Mon Oct 5 ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled USD risk that could reprice this structure
Higher lows since NFP spike; tight late-NY band 0.8286–0.8298.
The NFP-miss spike (29K vs 90K) to the 0.8227 nfp low was fully reversed in NY hours, a false break below the London low. A higher swing low followed at 0.8267. Price has since stalled late NY in a 0.8286–0.8298 band under the 0.8298 ny high and 0.8300 psych, near the 61.8% of the day-range fib from the 0.8327 asian high.
Support: 0.82859, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8298 ny high and 0.8300 psych reopens the path toward the 0.8327 asian high
Loss of the 0.8286 recent low turns the band into a lower high and exposes the 0.8267 swing low
A break back under the 0.8227 nfp low negates the false-break read
Thin late-NY Friday liquidity; Mon ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled risk for USD
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K f/c) drove a spike to the 0.8227 NFP low that was rejected within the bar. The rebound has since stalled late in NY, after London close, in a 0.8288–0.8298 band around the fib 61.8 of the drop from the Asia high at 0.8327. The post-NFP high at 0.8298 is capping price just under 0.8300; RSI(14) is near 54 and ATR(14) about 7.6 pips.
Support: 0.82887, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8298 post-NFP high and 0.8300 opens the path toward the 0.8327 Asia high
Close below the fib 61.8 at 0.8289 and the rising trendline puts the 0.8267 higher low in play
Loss of the 0.8267 higher low exposes the 0.8227 NFP low
Friday late session into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this read
Higher lows since the NFP low, now a tight range under the session high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USDCHF through the London lows to 0.8227 at 12:30 UTC, and the move was rejected inside the same bar. The post-NFP rally has since built higher lows, including 0.8267, back to pre-London levels at the 0.8298 session high. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 0.8288 range low and the session high, just under the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8300 round number clears the session high and exposes the Asian high at 0.8327
Losing the 0.8288 range low reopens the 0.8267 higher low; a break there retraces the post-NFP rally toward the nfp low at 0.8227
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next USD catalyst that could shift this read
V-reversal from NFP low, capped at range top 0.8298.
The NFP miss drove a spike to the 0.8227 nfp low that was fully reversed despite the soft print. NY then set a higher low at 0.8267 and stalled at the 0.8298 range top, which also capped the Asia session and early London. Late-NY price is pressing ema20 near 0.8287 with RSI(14) near 56, and the NFP rebound is only about 12% retraced.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8300 clears the range top and the 0.8290/0.8300 zone flagged in the CHF digest, with the 0.8327 asia high next
Loss of ema20 near 0.8287 puts the 0.8267 higher low back in focus, close to the 38.2% retrace of the NFP rebound
A break back below the 0.8227 nfp low would void the false-break read
Thin late-Friday liquidity; ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) is the next high-impact USD risk
Higher lows off NFP spike low, capped at NY session high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) swept the pair to a 0.8227 nfp low in the first hour of NY, but the move was reclaimed within the bar. A higher-low chain off the 0.8267 london low has since lifted price back inside the Asian range, where three late-NY retests of the 0.8298 ny high have stalled. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is about 9.5 pips as ranges compress into the Friday close.
Support: 0.8289, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8298 ny high clears 0.8300 and opens the path toward the 0.8327 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.8289 asian low puts the post-NFP higher-low chain at risk, with 0.8267 london low and the nfp swing 38.2% just below
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could reset this read
The 29K NFP miss spiked the pair to the 0.8227 nfp low, a false break that fully reversed. The shallow USD selloff gave way to a higher-low chain from the 0.8267 pullback low and a rising trendline. After London close, price is retesting the 0.8300 round number, the area where Asia lows gave way at the London open. RSI(14) is near 63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the asia pivot at 0.8313 and the 0.8327 asia high
Loss of the 0.8288 higher low breaks the rising trendline. Below the 0.8267 pullback low, the nfp low at 0.8227 comes back into view
A deeper slip into the nfp rebound fib zone near 0.8261 would undercut the recovery read
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity. Next scheduled catalyst is ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 at 14:00 GMT
V-recovery from the NFP spike low; higher low at 0.8267, now pressing the Asia range base.
The 29K NFP miss swept USDCHF to an nfp low of 0.8227 at 12:30 UTC, but the spike was rejected within the bar. NY session has since printed a higher low at 0.8267, cleared the 0.8288 prior high and the 61.8% retrace of the day's drop, and is now testing the 0.8299 asia range base just under the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) at 64 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number reclaims the asia range and opens the path to the 0.8327 asia high
A drop back below the 0.8288 prior high exposes the 0.8267 higher low; losing it breaks the post-NFP rising trendline
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity and no scheduled US or CHF releases before Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) keep the move headline-driven
16:16 UTC
Recovering from NFP low, higher lows in NY · RSI 63 · price 0.82903
V-shaped rebound from 0.8227 spike low; testing London high / Asian range low.
The 29K NFP miss spiked USD/CHF to an nfp low of 0.8227 at 12:30 GMT, but the flush was rejected and NY built a higher low at 0.8267 above the pre-nfp low before climbing to a 0.8297 ny high. Price is now back inside the 0.8290–0.8299 band, at the old Asian range floor and capped by the london high, RSI(14) ~63 and above both EMAs. On the fib of the Asian high-to-NFP-low drop, the rebound has retraced roughly 70%.
Support: 0.82674, 0.82606, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82972, 0.8299, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 london high and 0.8300 puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.8327 asian high the next reference
Rejection at the 0.8297 ny high followed by a break of the 0.8267 higher low unwinds the post-NFP recovery and exposes the 0.8261 pre-nfp low
Late Friday NY session: thinning liquidity into the weekly close can exaggerate moves around 0.8300
Monday ISM Services (14:00 GMT, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed October-hike odds
Higher lows from 0.8227 NFP low, pressing London high.
The weak NFP print swept USDCHF to 0.8227 before a roughly 70-pip V-shaped recovery into the 0.8297 rebound high, against the haven-CHF backdrop in the digest. Price is stalling just under the 0.8299 London high and the 0.8300 round number after London close. RSI(14) is near 66 and flattening, with the minor low at 0.8286 the first pullback marker.
Support: 0.8286, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.8299 (london high / 0.8300) opens the 0.8327 asian high
Loss of the 0.8267 swing low, near the 38.2% post-NFP fib, breaks the post-release higher-low chain
A return toward the 0.8227 nfp low would turn the release dip into a lower low
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity; ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
Higher lows since NFP low, back inside asian range.
London broke below the 0.8290 Asian low on CHF haven demand, and the 29K NFP miss swept price to the 0.8227 nfp low, which was rejected inside the same bar. NY has since printed a higher low at 0.8267, cleared the 0.8288 prior highs and retraced about 68% of the Asia high-to-NFP low decline, with price now pressing the 0.8300 round number and RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8327 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8288 prior highs exposes the 0.8267 higher low; a break there ends the rebound structure
A return to the 0.8227 nfp low reinstates the intraday downtrend
Late-Friday NY liquidity thins; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery off NFP low · RSI 64 · price 0.82912
Higher lows since NFP spike; testing early-London breakdown zone.
The 29K NFP miss swept the pair to a 0.8227 nfp low, rejected inside the same bar. NY has since built a higher low at 0.8267 and pushed through the 0.8289 prior high. Price is now testing the 0.8295 session high and the 0.8299 london high, the zone where early London broke below the Asian range, with the 0.8327 asian high above. RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 0.8289, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8295, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8289 prior high returns price to the post-NFP range
Break of the 0.8267 higher low and the rising NFP trendline invalidates the NY recovery structure
Sustained trade above the 0.8299 london high puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 0.8327 asian high
Late-Friday NY liquidity thins; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst
Post-NFP higher lows pressing the London range top.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USD/CHF to the 0.8227 nfp low in the first hour of NY, but that dip was bought hard. A higher swing low at 0.8267 has lifted price back to the 61.8% fib of the Asia high–NFP low drop near 0.8289, with the session high at 0.8293 just under the 0.8299 london high that has capped the range since the London open.
Support: 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8299
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 london high reopens the Asian range toward 0.8327
Failure to hold the 0.8267 swing low breaks the post-NFP higher-low chain
Rejection at the 61.8% fib / 0.8293 session high keeps the NFP rebound corrective
Late-Friday NY liquidity thins; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst
Range 0.8267–0.8291 after reclaim of NFP spike low.
USD/CHF lost the Asian range low near 0.8290 at 06:00 UTC and slid through London. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked it to the 0.8227 nfp low, but the dip was fully reclaimed within the hour, and 0.8267 has since held as a higher low. In NY hours price is pinned under the 0.8291 range top, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the asian high-nfp low leg, while RSI(14) sits neutral near 54 and price hovers at EMA50.
Support: 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 range top puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.8327 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8267 higher low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
Another rejection at the range top keeps the 0.8267–0.8291 range intact into the London close
Friday liquidity thins after the London close; ISM Services (Mon 14:00 GMT, f/c 55.7) is the next US catalyst for Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs since the Asian session; post-NFP range 0.8267–0.8289.
London broke the 0.8290 Asian low and drifted to a 0.8267 london low. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to 0.8227, but that wick retraced almost fully to 0.8289, and price now sits mid-range near the 78.6% fib of the NFP move. In mid-NY session price is boxed 0.8267–0.8289, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8289 post-nfp hi puts price back inside the Asian range and brings 0.8327 asian high into view
Failure to hold 0.8267 london low, which is also the 61.8% fib of the NFP move, exposes the 0.8227 nfp low
Friday NY close thins liquidity; ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 is the next scheduled driver
Lower highs from Asian high; NFP rebound capped at 0.8289.
USDCHF slid from the 0.8327 Asian high through the London low before the 29K NFP miss spiked it to 0.8227. The rebound was rejected at 0.8289, extending the lower-highs chain, and early NY has pulled price back to 0.8269 at the london low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8257, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8299
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8299 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence. A hold below the 0.8289 nfp high keeps it intact.
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low exposes the 0.8257 pre-nfp low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the nfp rebound fib.
A break of the 0.8227 nfp low would extend the session's lower-low chain.
Late-Friday NY liquidity can widen swings. US ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 is the next scheduled data risk.
Lower highs from 0.8327 Asia high; NFP spike low rejected, bounce capped at 61.8%.
USD/CHF printed lower highs from the 0.8327 Asia high through London. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked it to the 0.8227 NFP low, but that bar closed back above the 0.8257 pre-NFP low, a sharp rejection. The first hour of NY bounce stalled at the 0.8289 post-NFP high, the 61.8% retrace of the Asia high–NFP low drop, and price is now flat near the 50% level and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8257, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8289 post-NFP high (61.8% retrace) opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low exposes the 0.8257 pre-NFP low, then the 0.8227 NFP low
Friday NY afternoon liquidity thins; next scheduled USD catalyst is ISM Services on Mon Oct 5, 14:00 GMT
Lower highs from Asia high 0.8327; NFP spike low rejected, price back inside London range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) swept the 0.8266 london low down to the 0.8227 nfp low, but the spike was rejected within the bar. Price has since rebounded about 60 pips and is stalling at the 0.8288 nfp high, near the 61.8% of the Asia high to NFP low drop. Price is back inside the London range, above EMA20 and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8295, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8288 nfp high exposes the 0.8295 london high and the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8274 swing low reopens the 0.8266 london low, then the 0.8227 nfp low
Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and ongoing post-NFP USD repricing can extend ranges beyond the ~14-pip ATR
Lower highs since 0.8348; NFP spike low swept, price back inside London range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USD/CHF to an NFP low of 0.8227 in the first NY bar, sweeping below the London low and morning low, but demand stepped in and the pair recovered to a post-NFP high of 0.8288, near the 61.8% of the Asian-high-to-NFP-low leg. Price is back inside the 0.8274–0.8292 London range (london low to london high), and lower highs since yesterday's 0.8348 keep the 24h structure in a downtrend. RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8292 london high and 61.8% fib breaks the post-NFP high cap and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 0.8274 london low reopens the 0.8266 morning low, then the 0.8227 NFP low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT, inside the NY session, could extend the post-NFP swings
Lower highs from Asia high; NFP flush to 0.8227 rejected, price back inside London range.
USD/CHF broke below the Asian range ahead of London, then held a 0.8266 london low to 0.8292 london high range until the soft NFP (29K vs 90K) spiked it to the 0.8227 nfp low. That flush was rejected fast. Price is back at 0.8280, pressing the falling trendline and the 0.8285 post-NFP high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8257, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8285, 0.8292, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8285 post-NFP high and the falling trendline opens the 0.8292 london high, with the 0.8300 psych level and the 61.8% fib just above
Slip back below the 0.8266 london low exposes the 0.8257 pre-NFP low, then the 0.8227 nfp low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC (medium impact) could extend the post-NFP volatility
Lower highs from Asian high; NFP spike below London low reclaimed.
Lower highs from the 0.8327 Asian high carried into NY. The across-the-board NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked price to the 0.8227 nfp low before a fast reclaim of the 0.8266 london low. Early NY, the rebound is pausing at the 0.8279 post-NFP high, near the 50% fib of the Asia-to-NFP leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8279, 0.8292, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8292 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; the 0.8300 round number sits just above
Rejection at the 0.8279 post-NFP high / 50% fib keeps the rebound corrective
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend the post-NFP volatility
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; post-NFP rejection wick.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USDCHF to the 0.8227 nfp low, but the bar closed near 0.8262 and price has since recovered to 0.8275, stalling at ema20 early in NY. The sequence of lower highs from the 0.8327 Asia high to the 0.8292 london high is intact. RSI(14) at 43 sits mid-range after the flush.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8257, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8275, 0.8292, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8292 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
A move back through the 0.8266 london low and the 0.8257 pre-nfp low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
A reclaim of the 0.8300 round number would put the 0.83 Asia-range lows back in play
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend the post-NFP swing
Fib 50% of the Asia high to nfp low move sits near 0.8277, just above ema20
London range 0.8274–0.8292 broken lower; NY spike low rejected.
Lower highs from 0.8327 in Asia to the 0.8292 lower high, and the London range floor at 0.8274 gave way into the NY open as CHF haven demand and trimmed Fed-hike odds weighed. The payrolls-timed bar spiked to 0.8227 and closed back near 0.8262. Price is pinned just above the 0.8257 pre-NFP low, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8274, 0.8292
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8274 range floor neutralises the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8257 pre-NFP low reopens the 0.8227 spike low
A close above the 0.8292 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Post-payrolls repricing of Fed October odds and Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT could extend the spike range
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending on NFP · RSI 23 · price 0.82377
Lower highs from Asia high, NFP bar breaks pre-NFP low.
Lower highs since the 0.8327 Asia high, with the 0.8266–0.8292 London range giving way into the NY open as CHF haven demand persists. The NFP release bar knifed about 29 pips to 0.8237 through the 0.8257 pre-NFP low. RSI(14) is near 23, oversold, and the bar is closing at its low, so the move shows no rejection yet.
Support: 0.82371, 0.8230
Resistance: 0.82574, 0.82658, 0.8292
What it said to watch
Close back above 0.8257 pre-NFP low would mark the NFP break as a false break
Reclaim of 0.8266 london low and the 38.2% fib (~0.8271) of the Asia high to NFP low leg would signal the leg is retracing
Lower-highs trendline from the Asia high to the 0.8292 london high caps structure while intact
Hold below the 0.8237 nfp low opens the 0.8230 round number
Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and the post-NFP repricing of Fed October hike odds (~28%) could extend or reverse this leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, London range broken lower.
Pair sits about 15 minutes before NFP. Price broke below the Asian range low of 0.8290 early in London, then left a 0.8274–0.8292 range lower in the hour before NFP, printing a session low at 0.8257 as the haven franc bid persisted. The 0.8266 prior low from London now caps the bounce, and the lower-high sequence from the Asian high at 0.8327 is still intact.
Support: 0.82574, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8266, 0.8292, 0.82989
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print or AHE ≥0.4% tests the descending trendline
M15 close back above the 0.8292 lower high, also the fib 50% of the Asian high-to-low move, invalidates the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Holding below the 0.8266 prior low keeps the range break in force; the 0.8299 swing high is the last pivot before 0.8300
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.82684
0.8266–0.8292 London range broken lower, sweep to 0.8261 ahead of NFP.
The pair has printed lower highs from the 0.8327 Asian peak as softer Fed hike pricing kept USD heavy. London capped at the 0.8299 london high and held a 0.8266–0.8292 range until the 11:45 GMT bar swept the london low to a 0.8261 session low. Price is now hovering just above 0.8266 with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 9 pips, ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.8266, 0.82606, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.82989
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) can materially reset this read; per the digest a hot print or wages beat has more room to reprice USD/CHF than a miss
M15 close back above the 0.8292 range top and 0.8299 london high breaks the lower-high sequence along the asia-high leg
Acceptance below the 0.8261 session low exposes 0.8255 uob support
Holding back above 0.8266 london low turns the sweep into a false break of the range
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near the lows · RSI 53 · price 0.82834
Asian range broken lower; post-London range with higher lows against lower highs.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.8290 as fading Fed hike odds weighed on USD. The pair printed a session low at 0.8266, tested twice by 08:00 GMT. Since then it has compressed between a 0.8274 higher low and a 0.8292 range top, with lower highs capping. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 ahead of payrolls.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
US payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~45 min): NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM. The release is likely to resolve the compression and could materially shift this read.
A close above the 0.8292 range top and the 0.8299 swing high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.8327 asian high above.
Failure to hold the 0.8274 higher low exposes the 0.8266 session low. A break there extends the lower-low sequence.
Asian range broken lower at London open; basing 0.8266–0.8292 with higher lows.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8290 and printed a session low at 0.8266 twice, extending the slide on fading Fed hike odds. Since then, higher lows at 0.8274 and a cap at the 0.8292 swing high have held price in a tight base, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8290, 0.8300
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h) could materially shift this read; expect range expansion well beyond the ~8-pip ATR
M15 close back above 0.8290–0.8292 (asian low / swing high) puts price back inside the Asian range, with 0.8300 psych above
Failure to hold the 0.8274 higher low exposes the 0.8266 session low; a break below it resumes the lower-low sequence
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 55 · price 0.82848
Lower highs from Asia, now basing above 0.8266 with small higher lows.
Asia faded from the 0.8327 Asian high, and London extended below the Asian low to a 0.8266 session low. Two tests there held, and price has compressed into a 0.8274–0.8292 range, capped near the 38.2% retracement of the drop. The franc's bid tracks the drain in Fed October hike odds, with US payrolls due at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8299
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8292 range top, then the 0.8299 london high and the 0.8300 handle, breaks the range read
Loss of the 0.8274 range floor and the higher lows line re-exposes the 0.8266 session low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; ATR near 9 pips is likely to expand sharply on the release
London broke the Asian low; lower highs inside a 0.8266–0.8299 range.
London broke below the 0.8290 Asian low at the open and printed a 0.8266 session low on softer Fed hike pricing and lower US yields. Since then price has rotated between 0.8266 and the 0.8299 London high, with repeated rejection at the former 0.8290 Asian low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.8327 Asian high. Price is sitting on EMA20, with demand at the 0.8274 swing low, RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 9 pips, consistent with pre-NFP compression.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8327 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8274 swing low exposes the 0.8266 session low; a break there resumes the downtrend leg
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) is likely to resolve the 0.8266–0.8299 range
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.82778
Asian range broken lower; lower highs since 09:00 GMT above twin lows at 0.8266.
The 0.8290–0.8327 Asian range gave way just before London as the USD unwind extended after October Fed-hike odds slipped to ~28%. A London low formed twice at 0.8266. Since 09:00 GMT the pair has printed lower highs under the falling trendline, holding the 0.8274 micro low, with the old Asian low at 0.8290, also the 38.2% fib of the drop, capping. RSI(14) sits near 44 and ATR(14) is ~9 pips into NFP.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8266, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) is likely to break the current compression either way
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.8290 asian low / 38.2% fib reopens the 0.8299 bounce high
Failure to hold the 0.8274 micro low and the 0.8266 london low exposes the 0.8255 uob support
Lower highs from Asian high; London range 0.8266–0.8290 below Asian low.
USD/CHF extended its second-day slide as cooler October hike odds weighed on USD. Early London broke the 0.8290 Asian low and printed a 0.8266/0.8266 double bottom at the session low. Price has since compressed between a 0.8274 higher low and the 0.8290 Asian low, sitting near the 23.6% fib of the Asian-high sell-off with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.82738, 0.82658
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.82989, 0.83267
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) ~9 pips is likely to expand sharply
M15 close below the 0.8266 session low breaks the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 0.8274 higher low would put the session low back in play
Recovery above the 0.8290 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range; the 0.8299 lower high on the trendline is the next cap
Asian high at 0.8327 is the top of the sell-off and full fib retracement
Lower highs from 0.8327 Asian peak; tight 0.8273–0.8290 band since London open.
USD/CHF broke the Asian low at 0.8290 into the London open and printed a session low at 0.8266 twice. Since then it has held a 0.8273–0.8290 band under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 42, as cooler Fed-hike pricing keeps USD offered. Both 0.8290 rejections sit below the 0.8299 swing high, keeping the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 0.8273, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; ATR ~9 pips likely understates the release range
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.8290 and the 0.8299 swing high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.8273 swing low and 0.8266 session low resumes the London downtrend
Price is mid-way through the Asia-London drop fib; a close above its 38.2% level near 0.8290 aligns with the asian low test
Asian range broken lower; lower highs capping a 0.8279–0.8290 box.
Early European hours broke the Asian low at 0.8290 with a 30-pip flush, and the session low at 0.8266 printed twice. Bounces have since stalled at the London high of 0.8299 and then just under 0.8290, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the 0.8327 Asian high. Price is now boxed 0.8279–0.8290 under a lower-highs line and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41, while USD softness on faded October hike odds weighs ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.8279, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8290 Asian low reclaims the broken range and exposes the 0.8299 London high, ending the lower-highs sequence
A break of the 0.8279 range floor brings the 0.8266 session low back into play; a close below it confirms a lower-low
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) can materially shift this read; the ~10-pip ATR understates release volatility
London broke the Asian low at 0.8290 and twice found demand at the 0.8266 session low. That builds a potential double bottom as the CHF relief bid on faded Fed-hike odds stalls. Rebounds are capped along a lower-highs line from the 0.8299 London high, with the latest bounce rejected at the 38.2% fib of the asia-london drop near the old Asian low. Mid-London, price sits just under ema20 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.82789, 0.82658
Resistance: 0.82896, 0.82989
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8299 london high breaks the lower-highs line and confirms the double bottom
Failure to hold 0.8266 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.8255 area flagged in the digest
Loss of the 0.8279 swing low puts the session low back under test
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8327; London swept the 0.8266 low, then capped at 0.8290.
USD/CHF extended Thursday's NY-session slide through Asia as Oct Fed-hike odds eased, flushing to 0.8266 at 06:00 GMT. London undercut that session low by half a pip before bouncing to a higher low at 0.8273, but the recovery was rejected at 0.8290, the 38.2% fib of the 0.8327–0.8266 leg. Price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.8273, 0.8266, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8290 (38.2% fib) opens the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8273 higher low exposes the 0.8266 session low; acceptance below brings UOB support at 0.8255 into view
NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read; a strong print or hot AHE would revive the Fed-SNB gap trade
Only a reclaim of the 0.8327 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian range broken lower; lower highs from 0.8299, session low 0.8266 holding.
USDCHF broke below the 0.8290–0.8327 Asian range at 06:00 UTC as Fed-hike pricing eased, and London extended the drop to a 0.8266 session low that held on a second test. The rebound stalled at the old asian low near 0.8290, which is also the 38.2% fib of the Asia high-to-low drop, leaving lower highs below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.82811, 0.82658
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.82989
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) and AHE could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8266 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8255
Loss of the 0.8281 micro low exposes a retest of the session low
Close above the 0.8299 swing high breaks the lower highs and puts price back inside the Asian range
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off lows · RSI 42 · price 0.82848
Lower highs from the 0.8327 Asia high; double low at 0.8266.
USD/CHF extended its slide as October Fed-hike pricing eased, breaking the 0.8290 Asia low into London. A double low at 0.8266 held, and the rebound is now pressing the descending trendline from the 0.8327 Asia high near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 42 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8273, 0.8266, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Holding the 0.8273 swing low keeps the double low at 0.8266 intact
Acceptance below the 0.8266 double low exposes 0.8255 next support
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 41 · price 0.82808
Asian range broken to the downside; double test of 0.8266 session low, now basing below the Asian low.
Lower highs from the 0.8327 Asian high led to a break of the 0.8290 Asian low just before London, with a run to the 0.8266 session low. A second test of 0.8266 held. The move fits pre-NFP USD position-squaring after the soft PCE trimmed October hike odds; price is now basing below the old Asian low, under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8290 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range and blunt the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8266 session low extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 0.8299 swing high breaks the descending trendline from the Asian high; the 50% fib retracement sits near there
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hot print would put the 0.8327 asian high back in view
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 39 · price 0.82794
Asian range broken lower; lower-high sequence intact, session low swept.
USD/CHF broke the 0.8290 Asian low ahead of London open and printed a 0.8266 session low, tracking DXY easing from 102.20 as positions square before NFP. A second probe of the session low early in the London session was bought back, but the lower-high chain from the 0.8327 Asia high through the 0.8299 rebound high and the 0.8284 lower high, capped by the descending trendline, is still intact.
Support: 0.82658, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8290, 0.82989
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8284 lower high and the descending trendline (~0.8290) breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.8290 Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia-high move, puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.8266 session low exposes the 0.8255 UOB support
Asian range broken lower, lower-high sequence, pressing session low.
The Asian range (0.8290–0.8327) broke lower at 06:00 UTC with a spike to a 0.8266 session low. The bounce retested the old asian low and stalled at 0.8299, a fresh lower high near the 50% fib. Early in London, price is back near the lows with RSI(14) around 34, in line with the USD-led CHF squeeze as October Fed-hike odds sit near 28%.
Support: 0.82663, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.82899, 0.82989, 0.83267
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8290 asian low and the 0.8299 lower high would neutralise the range-break read; the asian high at 0.8327 is the upper bound
A break of the 0.8266 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward uob support at 0.8255
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs below 0.8300.
USD/CHF broke the Asian low at 0.8290 just before London, spiking to a 0.8266 spike low as the soft-PCE unwind of Fed-hike bets extended. The early-London bounce was rejected at 0.8299, just under 0.8300 psych and the descending trendline from the 0.8327 Asian high, and lower highs since have price pressing the 0.8274 London low.
Support: 0.82738, 0.82663
Resistance: 0.82899, 0.82989, 0.83267
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~5h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8274 London low and 0.8266 spike low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.8255
M15 close back above the 0.8290 Asian low and 0.8300 psych breaks the descending trendline and negates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8327 Asian high needed to unwind the session downtrend
Pre-London sweep of Asian low, price back inside range.
USDCHF is still carving lower highs after Thursday's NY slide on the ISM miss. A pre-London flush swept the asian low to the 0.8266 sweep low before snapping back to 0.8291, with the rebound high at 0.8299 sitting near the 50% fib. RSI(14) is neutral at ~47 in the first hour of London, ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 rebound high reopens the 0.8327 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8290 asian low puts the 0.8266 sweep low back in play
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.82884
Pre-London sweep below Asian low, rebound capped at 50-61.8% fib.
Asia rallied to the 0.8327 Asian high, then reversed and broke the 0.8290 Asian low. A pre-London sweep reached the 0.8266 session low before a rebound stalled at 0.8299 (rebound high), inside the 50-61.8% fib zone of the Asian-high leg. At London open price is pinned back around the Asian low and 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead, while the CHF bounce reflects fading Fed-hike odds into payrolls.
Support: 0.82812, 0.82663
Resistance: 0.82899, 0.8299, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8299 rebound high and 61.8% fib (0.8304) negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8281 higher low reopens the 0.8266 session low
Sustained trade above the 0.8290 Asian low turns it from resistance back to support
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT can expand the range well beyond the ~8-pip ATR
Lower highs from Asia high; prior low swept and reclaimed.
Asia extended the USD-led CHF bounce with lower highs from the 0.8327 asia high, and a 06:00 UTC flush through the prior low at 0.8292 to the 0.8266 sweep low was reclaimed within three bars. Ahead of London open, price is pressing the descending trendline and the 50% fib of the Asia move, just under the 0.8299 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 range top and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8327 asia high
M15 close back below the 0.8292 prior low turns the sweep into continuation and reopens the 0.8266 sweep low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs from Asian high · RSI 26 · price 0.82788
Range break lower from 0.8290–0.8299 Asian base, lower highs intact.
The 06:00 UTC bar broke the 0.8290–0.8299 Asian base, cutting through the asian low and yesterday's 0.8292 NY low to a 0.8266 session low before steadying near 0.8279, just above the 0.8270 round number. The Asian high at 0.8327 has capped a lower-highs trendline, and RSI(14) near 26 reflects the flush ahead of London open as USD stays heavy, with October hike odds near 28% into NFP.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82663, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.82899, 0.8300, 0.83267
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.8290 (asian low, fib 38.2) would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8266 session low and the 0.8270 round number exposes uob support at 0.8255
A recovery through the 0.8300 psych level and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read; the asian high at 0.8327 is the next reference
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from the 0.8327 Asian high; tight base above 0.8290.
Asia session reversed from the 0.8327 Asian high to a 0.8290 session low, slipping marginally under yesterday's 0.8292 NY low as the USD eased into NFP. Price is now compressing in a 0.8290–0.8299 band ahead of London open, capped by a descending line from the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8292, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8304, 0.8327
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8290 session low and the 0.8292 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward uob support at 0.8270
A close above the 0.8299 range top, then above 0.8304 prior lows at the 38.2% fib, breaks the descending line and negates the Asia breakdown read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; the 0.8327 asian high is the upper reference
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 0.82939
Lower highs from 0.8327 Asian high; tight 0.8290–0.8299 base.
Asia faded from the 0.8327 Asian high and broke the 0.8311 breakdown shelf, then took out yesterday's 0.8292 NY low to a 0.8290 Asian low as USD eased into NFP. Price is now compressing below EMA20/50 into the London open, capped by the 0.8299 micro high, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.82899, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.82992, 0.8311, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8299 micro high and the 0.8304 38.2% fib eases the lower-low sequence; the 0.8311 breakdown level sits above.
Failure to hold the 0.8290 Asian low exposes 0.8270 UOB support.
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 0.8330, Asia fade to fresh low, tight coil above.
The Asia fade from the 0.8327 asian high cut through the 0.8304 breakdown level and swept yesterday's 0.8292 NY low to print a 0.8290 session low, extending the lower highs from 0.8330 as eased Fed-hike pricing keeps USD heavy. Price is now coiling between 0.8290 and the 0.8299 coil top late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR at about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8304, 0.8327
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 0.8290 session low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.8270 UOB support area in view.
An M15 close back above the 0.8304 breakdown level neutralises the Asia fade. The 0.8327 asian high and the lower highs trendline sit above that.
A London open in under 2h is likely to resolve the 0.8290–0.8299 coil top range.
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read.
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia leg lower now basing · RSI 33 · price 0.82969
Lower highs from 0.8327 Asia high; new session low at 0.8290, minor bounce under 0.8300.
The Asia session sold off from the 0.8327 Asia high to a 0.8290 session low, taking out yesterday's NY low near 0.8292 and the 0.8302 prior low as softer Fed-hike pricing kept CHF bid. Late Asia is basing just under the 0.8300 round number, with the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop fib sitting at 0.8304, close to the broken prior low.
Support: 0.82899, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83021, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number and 0.8302 prior low reopens the 0.8304–0.8313 Asia drop fib zone
Failure to hold the 0.8290 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.8270 uob support
London open in ~2h can test or extend the Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read; a recovery toward the 0.8327 Asia high would need a hot print
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into late Asia · RSI 25 · price 0.82936
Lower highs; Asia high 0.8327 rejected, prior NY low undercut.
The Asia session failed at the 0.8327 asia high and broke down through 0.8304, briefly undercutting yesterday's NY low (0.8292) to a session low of 0.8290 before stalling, with RSI(14) near 25. The drop runs against the digest's firm-USD backdrop, in line with the stretched pre-NFP positioning it flags. The lower-high trendline from 0.8330 caps the structure.
Support: 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8290 session low turns the sweep of the prior NY low into a range break lower
Recovery above the 0.8304 breakdown level (38.2% fib) would neutralise the Asia leg
A break of the lower-high trendline and the 0.8327 asia high would invalidate the downtrend read
London open in ~2h, and NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; marginal new 24h low at 0.8290.
Late Asia broke the asian low near 0.8304 and slipped under the 0.8292 ny low left by the post-ISM drop. Price is now holding just above a 0.8290 session low. Lower highs from 0.8372 down to the 0.8327 asian high define the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR around 5 pips into NFP.
Support: 0.82899, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83038, 0.83267
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.8290 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8304 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
A recovery above 0.8313 (61.8% of the Asia drop) and the 0.8327 asian high challenges the descending trendline
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8327 Asian high; new low under yesterday's low.
Late Asia session: the early push to the 0.8327 Asian high failed. Price then unwound the whole Asian range to a 0.8290 asian low, just under yesterday's 0.8292 prior low set in the sell-off after the US ISM manufacturing miss. RSI(14) is near 31 and the late-NY broken base at 0.8303–0.8304, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, now sits overhead.
Support: 0.82899, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.83267
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 0.8290 asian low extends the lower-low sequence into London open
Failure to hold under the 0.8292 prior low turns the dip into a false break if price recovers quickly
M15 close back above the 0.8304 broken base (38.2% fib) undercuts the breakdown read
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
USDCHF reversed the whole Asian bounce from the 0.8304 prior base after a rejection at the 0.8327 asian high, sliding back to retest the 0.8291 session low set by Thursday's post-ISM selloff. That selloff started from the 0.8382 16-month high. Lower highs at 0.8330 and 0.8327 keep the intraday downtrend intact, with RSI(14) near 28 and not yet extreme, and ATR(14) about 5 pips into late Asia.
Support: 0.82908
Resistance: 0.83038, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8291 session low confirms a lower-low beneath the NY low
Recovery above the 0.8304 prior base (38.2% of the asian drop fib) neutralises the downtrend read
Break of the lower highs line near the 0.8327 asian high invalidates the LH/LL structure
London open in ~3h, then US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m), could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8327, Asian range broken to downside.
Late Asia session has dropped through the Asian low at 0.8304 and the 0.8300 psych handle. The decline came after a lower high at the 0.8327 Asian high. Price now sits on the 0.8295 session low, just above Thursday's NY prior low at 0.8292. That low was set when the pair fell after ISM as Treasury yields slid. RSI(14) is near 33, not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.82948, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83038, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.8304 Asian low puts price back inside the range and reads as a false break
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read from a stretched USD base
Fib 50% of the Asian-high-to-session-low drop sits near 0.8311, an area to watch for rejection on any bounce
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia broke below late-NY range, testing swing low.
Asia session faded from the 0.8327 Asia high and broke the 0.8302 prior low, extending the lower-highs sequence from yesterday's NY-session flush through the 0.8300 round number around the ISM release. Price is pressing the 0.8292 swing low with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83021, 0.83267
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8292 swing low prints a fresh lower-low for the window
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number and 0.8302 prior low neutralises the Asia range break
A break of the 0.8327 Asia high clears the lower-highs line and invalidates the downtrend read
US September jobs report at 12:30 UTC (NFP f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Down from 0.8382 high, now ranging · RSI 43 · price 0.83038
Lower high at 0.8327 under 0.8330, price back at Asian low.
Yesterday's slide from the 0.8382 high through the US data window bottomed at the 0.8292 day low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.8330, and Asia's push was rejected at 0.8327, the 38.2% fib. Price is now back at the 0.8303 Asian low, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 43 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8303, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.8333
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8303 asian low exposes the 0.8292 day low
Close above the 0.8327 asian high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 0.8333 breakdown level back in play
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range
03:02 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 0.83098
After a ~90-pip slide from the 0.8382 CHF CPI spike high to a 0.8292 NY low, despite broad USD strength, the pair has printed higher lows at 0.8302/0.8304 against lower highs at the 0.8330 bounce high and the 0.8327 asian high. Asia session gave back most of the asian rally on a rejection at 0.8327. Price sits at 0.8310, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.83038, 0.8300, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83267, 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8304 asian low exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8292 ny low
A close above the 0.8327 asian high and 0.8330 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.8333 london low next above
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, UR 4.1%) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Rebound stalling below prior NY high · RSI 53 · price 0.83132
Lower high at 0.8327 under 0.8330, Asian range 0.8304–0.8327.
After Thursday's NY slide to the 0.8292 day low on the ISM-driven dip in yields, the Asian rally from the 0.8304 asia low was rejected at 0.8327. That leaves a lower high under the 0.8330 ny high, and price is now testing the 61.8% of the asia rally fib near 0.8313 with the 0.8310 pullback low just below.
Support: 0.8310, 0.8304, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 ny high breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the 0.8310 pullback low exposes the 0.8304 asia low, then the 0.8292 day low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Range 0.8292–0.8330 since NY; Asian rally capped at a lower high.
Mid-Asia session, price at 0.8312 inside the 0.8304 asian low to 0.8327 asian high band. This follows Thursday's ~90-pip slide from the 0.8382 Swiss CPI spike to the 0.8292 day low, which extended around the US ISM headline miss. The Asian rally stalled at the fib 38.2% of that drop and printed a lower high below the 0.8330 ny high.
Support: 0.83038, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83267, 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8327 asian high and 0.8330 ny high breaks the lower highs sequence and the fib 38.2% cap
Failure to hold the 0.8304 asian low reopens the 0.8292 day low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
The London-open spike to 0.8382 reversed. The slide accelerated into the ISM release window and set a day low at 0.8292, and price has ranged 0.8292–0.8330 since. The Asia session rally was rejected at 0.8327, an asian high that forms lower highs with the NY bounce top. Price is back near the 50% of the Asia rally fib with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 0.83038, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83267, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8327 asian high and the 0.8333 london low breaks the lower highs and reopens the upper range
Failure to hold the 0.8304 asian low exposes the 0.8292 day low
US jobs report at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; USD looks stretched into the print
Higher lows off the 0.8304 Asian low, capped at the 0.8327 Asian high.
Mid-Asia session, USDCHF broke out of the late-NY 0.8303–0.8313 range and has built a higher-low chain along the Asia trendline. It is now stalling at the 0.8327 Asian high, near the 38.2% retracement (0.8323) of yesterday's NY sell-off from 0.8372 to 0.8292, which came as softer PCE trimmed Fed hike odds. RSI(14) is near 65 and price sits only marginally above EMA50 (~0.8319), with ATR at about 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.8315, 0.83038, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.83267, 0.83295, 0.83331
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 swing high clears the 50% retracement (0.8332) and puts the 0.8333 london low, broken in NY, in play as resistance
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8315 and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain, with the 0.8304 asian low next
Failure to hold the 0.8292 day low resumes the NY sell-off structure
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and AHE (f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday down after NY drop, Asia rebounding · RSI 64 · price 0.8321
Asian HH/HL chain inside 0.8292–0.8330 post-NY range.
Early Asia has built a higher-high/higher-low chain off the 0.8304 asian low and is now pressing the 0.8323 asian high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of yesterday's NY drop. That drop ran from 0.8372 to the 0.8292 ny low through the US ISM Manufacturing release (headline miss at 54.5) and fully unwound the spike to 0.8382 after Swiss CPI. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is thin at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8314, 0.8304, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8330, 0.8333
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8323 asian high exposes the 0.8330 ny high and the 0.8333 breakdown point, which is near the 50% fib.
A break of the 0.8314 higher low ends the Asian HH/HL chain and puts the 0.8304 asian low back in play.
Loss of the rising support from the 0.8292 ny low reopens that low.
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read.
Post-selloff base; Asian range broken higher, testing 38.2% retracement.
The pullback from the 0.8382 16-month high extended to a 0.8292 NY low after soft PCE trimmed Fed hike odds. Asia has since broken above its 0.8304–0.8313 range, with RSI(14) near 67. Price is pressing the 38.2% fib of the drop near 0.8326, just under the 0.8330 swing high from the NY bounce, with the 0.8350 prior range above.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8304, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 swing high opens the 0.8350 prior range and the 50% fib near 0.8337
Slip back below the 0.8313 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.8304 Asian low next
Loss of the 0.8292 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.8372; 0.8292–0.8330 range since NY sell-off.
NY hours broke 0.8333 and slid to a 0.8292 session low around the US ISM release as Treasury yields fell. The bounce met rejection at a 0.8330 swing high near the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off fib. Early Asia is now pressing the 0.8316 Asian high with EMA50 just overhead, on a 3.8-pip ATR.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8316, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 Asian high and EMA50 opens a retest of the 0.8330 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.8304 Asian low exposes the 0.8292 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend after London rejection, Asia flat · RSI 55 · price 0.83113
Lower highs from 0.8382; Asian range 0.8303–0.8313 inside 0.8292–0.8330 band.
USDCHF was rejected at the 0.8382 16-month high in early London. The slide accelerated around the 14:00 UTC ISM print (headline miss) to a 0.8292 swing low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8330 swing high, just above the 38.2% of the sell-off fib, keeping the lower highs intact. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.8303 Asian low and 0.8313 Asian high, below EMA50 and with ATR shrinking to about 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.8303, 0.8300, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 Asian high opens a retest of the 0.8330 swing high and the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 0.8303 Asian low exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8292 swing low
Acceptance above 0.8330 breaks the lower-high sequence from 0.8382
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.83103
Lower highs since NY low; tight Asian range 0.8304–0.8313.
USD/CHF faded the Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 and broke lower after the 14:00 UTC ISM headline miss, as slipping yields weighed, printing a ny low at 0.8292. The rebound capped at the 0.8330 ny high near the 50% fib, and lower highs since then sit on a falling trendline. Asia is holding a tight range between the 0.8304 asian low and the 0.8313 asian high, with ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.83038, 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.83226, 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 asian high and the lower-high trendline opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8323, then the 0.8330 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.8304 asian low and the 0.8302 swing low exposes the 0.8292 ny low
London open is the first test of the Asian range
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst and could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.83048
Lower highs since NY bounce; early-Asia drift holding above late NY low.
The Swiss CPI spike to 0.8382 in early London met rejection. The NY sell-off through the ISM window then broke the 0.8333 London low and printed a 0.8292 day low. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.8330 bounce high, just above the 38.2% of the day's drop, and early Asia is drifting around 0.8305 under the lower highs line, capped at the 0.8313 Asian high.
Support: 0.83021, 0.82919
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8302 late NY low exposes the 0.8292 day low
Reclaiming the 0.8330 bounce high would neutralise the NY sell-off read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; ATR near 4.5 pips understates likely release range