Lower highs from the 0.8382 top; rebound capped at the 38.2–50% fib.
Tuesday–Wednesday's grind higher topped at the 0.8382 16-month high early in Thursday's London session, and the rejection has produced a run of lower highs since. Price broke below 0.8300 into Thursday's NY session as softer PCE and the franc's safe-haven bid took hold, then fell to a 0.8227 week low on the NFP miss. The rebound stalled at the 0.8298 nfp high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's drop, and price has slipped back below the EMA(20) near 0.8291, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8298 nfp high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.8327 asia high, near the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low leaves the 0.8227 week low exposed
Holding below the ema20 at 0.8291 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print would challenge the post-NFP USD losses
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.8382 top.
The Tuesday-to-Thursday advance topped at 0.8382 early Thursday. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows as the franc's safe-haven bid and softer PCE pricing took over, cutting October Fed-hike odds. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked price to the 0.8227 nfp low before a rejection of those lows lifted it back to the 38.2% fib at 0.8286. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 0.8293 with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s, capped so far by the post-nfp high at 0.8298 beneath the lower highs trendline.
Support: 0.82864, 0.82658, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.83048, 0.83267
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8298 post-nfp high and the lower highs trendline opens the 50% fib at 0.8305
Acceptance back above the 0.8327 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 exposes Friday's london low at 0.8266, then the 0.8227 nfp low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs since 0.8382; NFP low rejected, bounce testing 0.8300.
USD/CHF topped at the 0.8382 week high early in Thursday's London session and has printed lower highs since. Thursday's NY sell-off and Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages soft) extended the slide to an NFP low at 0.8227, alongside CHF's haven bid. The spike low was rejected and the rebound has reclaimed the fib 38.2% at 0.8286, nudging above the lower-high trendline. It is still capped just under EMA(20) near 0.8294 and the 0.8300 psych level, with RSI(14) recovering to ~48 from the mid-30s.
Support: 0.8286, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8300 psych and EMA(20) confirms the break of the lower-high trendline and opens the 0.8327 lower high (fib 61.8% near 0.8323)
Failure to hold fib 38.2% at 0.8286 puts Friday's london low at 0.8266 and the nfp low at 0.8227 back in focus
Week high 0.8382 caps the broader move; the decline from there stays intact while 0.8327 holds
ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7): a strong print reviving Fed hike odds could extend the rebound toward 0.8327
17:03 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, rebound off NFP low · RSI 46 · price 0.82921
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8382; NY bounce retesting 38.2% fib.
The pair reversed from the 0.8382 week high at Thursday's London open and fell 155 pips over two sessions. October hike odds unwound and CHF regained its haven bid, then the NFP miss (29K vs 90K) briefly printed a 0.8227 week low below Friday's 0.8266 london low before a sharp rejection. The NY session rebound has lifted price back to the 38.2% fib and just above the lower-highs line, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8286, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8323, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number would take out Friday's 0.8292 high and challenge the lower-highs structure
Failure back below the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 and the 0.8266 london low re-exposes the 0.8227 week low
61.8% fib at 0.8323 is the retracement cap below the 0.8382 week high if the rebound extends
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
Range break lower from Thursday, lower highs below 0.8327.
USD/CHF printed the 0.8382 week high early in Thursday's NY session, then broke below the Monday–Wednesday 0.8325–0.8360 range. The selling extended through Friday's Asia and London sessions, below the 0.8327 Asia high, as fading Fed October-hike odds revived the CHF haven bid. The soft NFP print spiked the pair to the 0.8227 nfp low before a ~70-pip rebound into NY hours that is now stalling at EMA(20) near 0.8294, just under the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) back in the low 40s and price holding above the fib 38.2 of the 0.8382–0.8227 drop.
Support: 0.8286, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number and the 50% retracement near 0.8305 would signal the haven move is fading
Recapture of the 0.8327 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 0.8382 week high
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 0.8286 and the 0.8266 london low re-exposes the 0.8227 nfp low
US ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via October-hike pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.8382 peak.
Lower highs have stacked since Thursday's London-open rejection at the 0.8382 week high. The NY session drove both legs lower: Thursday afternoon through 0.8300, then Friday's flush to the 0.8227 week low after the 29K payrolls miss and soft wages cut October Fed-hike odds. The rebound from that low is pressing the 38.2% fib of the week's decline near 0.8286, in line with the lower-highs trendline and just under the thu low at 0.8292 and EMA(20) near 0.8294, while RSI(14) at ~37 has recovered without leaving the lower half of its range.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu low at 0.8292 and the 0.8300 psych level would break the lower-highs trendline and reclaim EMA(20)
A move through the fri high at 0.8327 ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% fib area behind price
Failure back below the pre-nfp low at 0.8261 reopens the 0.8227 week low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 GMT (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print revives hike bets
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.8382 week high; NFP low at 0.8227 rejected.
The Monday-to-Wednesday grind topped at a 0.8382 week high early in Thursday's London session. A sequence of lower highs followed, and the soft US PCE read in Thursday's NY hours drove the break below 0.8300. Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages soft) extended the slide through the London low at 0.8261 to the NFP low at 0.8227, where a long lower wick marked a sharp rejection. Price is now back near the 38.2% fib of the week's drop (~0.8286), but still under the falling ema20 (~0.8295) and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) recovering toward 38 from sub-30 readings.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8295, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the 0.8292 breakdown level would extend the rebound toward the 50% fib near 0.8305
A reclaim of the Asia high at 0.8327 would break this week's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8261 reopens the nfp low at 0.8227
Factory Orders (14:00 GMT today), ISM Services (Mon 14:00 GMT) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, extended on NFP · RSI 38 · price 0.82767
Lower highs and lower lows below the 0.8300 range floor.
Rejection at 0.8382 at Thursday's London open marked the week's peak. The NY session then broke the 0.8320–0.8360 range, and the move has produced lower highs since. Friday's London session extended the move to 0.8266, and the across-the-board NFP miss spiked price to the nfp low at 0.8227 before roughly half the spike was retraced. Price is holding below EMA(20) near 0.8294, which lines up with the lower-highs trendline, and RSI(14) sits around 38 without an oversold reading.
Support: 0.8266, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.83048, 0.83295
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.8294 (ema20 / lower-highs line) would break the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 0.8305 and the Thursday bounce high at 0.8330 would signal the rebound has faded
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low re-exposes the 0.8227 nfp low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC today and ISM Services on Monday could shift Fed-hike pricing and this read
Week-long rally reversed from 0.8382; lower highs and lower lows into Friday London.
Monday-to-Wednesday's grind higher topped at the 0.8382 week high early Thursday. That rejection turned into a reversal when the ISM manufacturing miss hit during NY hours, sending the pair through 0.8300 to 0.8292. Friday extended the sequence of lower highs: the Asia session lost that broken low, and London pressed to a fresh week low at 0.8261. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.8296 with RSI(14) around 32, soft but not oversold and showing no divergence.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US jobs report due 12:30 GMT (NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read in the next bars
H1 close back above the 0.8292 broken low and EMA(20) would challenge the lower-highs trendline
Recovery into the 38.2–50% retracement of the decline (0.8307–0.8322) would test the 0.8327 lower high; a break there undermines the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8261 week low opens the 0.8250 round number
Reclaiming the 0.8382 week high would negate Thursday's rejection
11:02 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday's week high, momentum still heavy · RSI 39 · price 0.82832
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA20 after the Mon–Wed range broke.
Monday-to-Wednesday grind higher topped at the 0.8382 week high in Thursday's London session. The pair then broke the week's range in Thursday NY hours as Fedspeak and softer hike pricing pulled US yields lower. Friday's London open extended the lower-low sequence to a 0.8266 week low, and the bounce is now stalling just under the 0.8292 broken low, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read; NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM
H1 close back above the 0.8292 broken low and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8327 lower high (near the 38.2–50% fib of the Thu–Fri drop) would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8266 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Broke below this week's 0.8320-0.8360 range; lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8382 week high.
Thursday's push to the 0.8382 week high was rejected at the London open. The NY session then broke the week's range toward 0.8292 as October Fed-hike odds bled to ~28%. Friday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.8327 asia high, a lower high in line with the lower-highs line. London extended to a fresh 0.8266 week low, and price now holds below a falling EMA(20) near 0.8297 with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8297 ema20 and the lower-highs line challenges the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8266 week low exposes the 0.8250 round number
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read
A recovery to the 0.8327 asia high, near the 50% fib of the week high-to-low drop, marks a deeper retracement
A return toward the 0.8382 week high would negate the range break
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.8382 week high; price below EMA20, stalling at the 0.8266 week low.
The Monday–Wednesday grind higher topped at 0.8382 early Thursday, and London reversed it. The NY session then broke below 0.8300 as soft US data (PCE, the ISM headline miss) cut October Fed-hike pricing. Each bounce since has formed a lower high, the latest at 0.8327 in Friday's Asian session, and London extended to a 0.8266 week low that has held on two tests. Price sits about 20 pips under the EMA20 near 0.8305, which lines up with the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop near 0.8310. RSI(14) has recovered to the high 30s from about 30.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8305, 0.8327
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 GMT today (f/c 90K, prev 162K; AHE f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read.
H1 close back above the 0.8291 prior lows turns that shelf from resistance back to support.
Recovery through the 0.8305 ema20 and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence; a reclaim of the 0.8327 lower high negates the downtrend read.
Acceptance below the 0.8266 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.8250 round number.
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into London · RSI 31 · price 0.82726
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.8382 top; Thursday low broken.
The grind higher from Monday's 0.8304 base ended in a rejection at 0.8382 into Thursday's London open. The pair then broke down in the first hour of NY after the ISM manufacturing miss, adding to the unwind of October Fed-hike odds after the soft PCE. Since then the H1 chart has printed lower highs at 0.8372, 0.8330 and 0.8327, and Friday's Asia-to-London slide broke the 0.8292 thu low to a new week low at 0.8266. Price is holding well below the ema20 near 0.8303, and RSI(14) is near 31 without an oversold reading yet.
Support: 0.82663, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8303, 0.83267
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 0.8292 thu low would mark the break below it as a false break
An H1 close above the 0.8327 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8266 week low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Lower highs from 0.8382; week base 0.8292-0.8297 broken, now retested.
USD/CHF reversed from Thursday's 0.8382 London-open high and broke the week's base near the 0.8292 Thu low during NY hours after the ISM manufacturing miss, as October Fed-hike odds kept unwinding. Each bounce since has stalled at a lower high (0.8372, then 0.8330 and 0.8327), and price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. This morning's spike to the 0.8266 London low was bought back to the Thu low, which is now acting as resistance. A 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-Friday drop sits near 0.8311.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8304, 0.8330
What it said to watch
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.8304 monday open would put the broken range back in play
A move through the 0.8330 lower high would break the lower-high sequence, with the 50% retracement of the Thursday-Friday drop near 0.8324 just below it
Failure to hold the 0.8266 london low leaves the 0.8250 round number exposed
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.8382 peak.
Monday-to-Wednesday higher lows carried the pair from the 0.8303 weekly open to a false break above Wednesday's 0.8362 high, peaking at 0.8382 early Thursday. The pair then reversed hard, and the slide accelerated in NY hours as softer US data and faded October Fed-hike odds hit USD. The bounce stalled at a 0.8329 lower high near the 38.2% of the Thursday reversal, and Friday's Asian session produced a range break below Monday's 0.8297 low to a fresh week low at 0.8290. Price now sits under EMA(20) near 0.8314 with RSI(14) around 35.
Support: 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8303, 0.8314, 0.8329
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above the 0.8303 weekly open undercuts the range break
Acceptance above EMA(20) at 0.8314 and the 0.8329 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8290 week low extends the lower-low sequence
05:03 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday's week high · RSI 38 · price 0.82965
Lower highs below 0.8330, fresh week low in Asia.
The Monday-to-Thursday grind higher ended with a false break to the 0.8382 week high early in Thursday's London session. The NY-session slide that followed took price to 0.8292 as the ISM headline miss and softer PCE drained October Fed-hike pricing. Rebounds stalled at a lower high near 0.8328, close to the 38.2% fib of the drop, and Asia has printed a fresh week low at 0.8290 with price back below the 0.8300 psych level. Price is trading under both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is in the high 30s without reaching oversold.
Support: 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8328, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.8300 psych and EMA(20) would flag a failed breakdown
Clearance of the 0.8328 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.8290 week low extends the downtrend toward 0.8270/0.8255
04:03 UTC
Downtrend after failed push to 16-month high · RSI 35 · price 0.82911
Lower highs below 0.8330, fresh week low at 0.8291.
The Monday–Wednesday advance from 0.8296 broke the 0.8367 prior highs during Thursday's London session and printed a 16-month high at 0.8382. That move reversed hard, breaking the broken uptrend line. The NY-session flush after the ISM Manufacturing miss (54.5 vs 55) took price through the 0.8300 round number and erased the week's gains. Rebounds have since stalled at 0.8330 and a lower high at 0.8327, and EMA(20) has crossed below EMA(50); the Asia session has pressed to a fresh week low near 0.8291 with RSI(14) around 35.
Support: 0.8291, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8318, 0.8327
What it said to watch
US September payrolls at 12:30 UTC (NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.8300 round number and the ema20 near 0.8318 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
A break above the 0.8327 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace of the drop from 0.8382, invalidates the breakdown read
Sustained trade below the 0.8291 week low exposes the 0.8270 uob support area
03:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend after failed week high · RSI 40 · price 0.83097
Weekly rally fully retraced; post-drop range 0.8303–0.8329 above 0.8292 base.
USD/CHF ground higher from Monday's open along a rising weekly trendline and printed the 0.8382 week high at Thursday's London open. It then unwound the whole advance in Thursday's NY session, sliding to 0.8292 around the US ISM release and breaking the weekly trendline. That move matched Monday's weekly low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8329 bounce high, right at the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's drop, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.8323 with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 0.83035, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.83226, 0.8329, 0.83824
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main risk to this read; the digest flags a stretched USD/CHF after a seven-day run
Failure to hold the Asian low at 0.8303 exposes the 0.8292 weekly low for a third test
An hourly close below the 0.8292 weekly low erases the week's range and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 0.8329 bounce high reopens the 50% retracement of Thursday's drop near 0.8337
Week's advance unwound; bounce testing ema20 from below.
The advance from 0.8290 ran Monday to Thursday and peaked at the 0.8382 week high around Thursday's Swiss CPI release, then reversed. The ISM Manufacturing miss in the NY session drove price to the 0.8292 week low, unwinding the week's gain and breaking the rising trendline. Friday's Asia session has lifted off the 0.8303 asia low into the 0.8325 ema20, which also sits at the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8303, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.8333, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Rejection at the ema20 and 38.2% retracement near 0.8325 keeps the lower-high sequence since Thursday intact
An H1 close back above the 0.8333 breakdown level reclaims the Tuesday–Wednesday range and opens the 50% retracement near 0.8337
Failure below the 0.8303 asia low exposes the 0.8292 week low; a break there undercuts Monday's base
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) plus wages could materially shift this read; a print well above or below forecast tests the 0.8382 week high or the 0.8292 week low
Failed break at week high, post-flush consolidation above weekly open.
The grind higher from Monday's 0.8293 weekly open peaked at the 0.8382 week high around London open Thursday. That was a marginal break of Wednesday's 0.8362 high that failed. The NY-session flush on the ISM headline miss then took price to 0.8292, nearly a full retracement of the week. The rebound stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8330, and price has since drifted between the late-Thu low at 0.8303 and EMA20 (~0.8325), with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8303, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8348, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.8330 (38.2% fib) would break the lower-highs sequence since Thursday's peak
Failure to hold the 0.8303 late-Thu low exposes the weekly open at 0.8292 and the 0.8290 week low
Reclaim of the 0.8348 61.8% fib would bring the 0.8382 week high back into view
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Uptrend broken, sharp reversal to week open · RSI 36 · price 0.83044
The pair climbed from Monday's 0.8296 open in a steady higher-low sequence, with pullbacks finding EMA(20). It printed a 0.8382 week high early in London Thursday after the in-line Swiss CPI, but the push above Tuesday–Wednesday's 0.8358–0.8362 tops failed. NY hours Thursday then delivered a 56-pip flush on the ISM release, where the headline missed at 54.5, back to 0.8292 near the week low, breaking the rising trendline and erasing almost the whole week's range on the fib. The bounce stalled at the 0.8330 rebound high, and price now sits below an ema20 near 0.8325 with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.8330, 0.8382
What it said to watch
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a soft print or soft wages leaves the stretched USD leg exposed
H1 close back above the 0.8330 rebound high and ema20 would neutralise the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8290 week low would complete a full round-trip of the week's rally
Week high at 0.8382 now marks the top of the failed breakout; a retest there would reopen the trend read