Lower highs from 0.8382; tight 0.8280–0.8298 range below EMA20.
USDCHF was rejected at Thursday's 16-month high of 0.8382, and the NY-session break on softer PCE and a franc safe-haven bid set up a run of lower highs into Friday, with the 0.8327 friday high capping Asia. The NFP miss briefly broke the 0.8266 swing low to print the 0.8227 nfp low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8298 rebound high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Thursday-to-Friday drop. Price is now compressed just under the 0.8284 week open after a thin Monday Asia start, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8298 rebound high and the 50% fib near 0.8305 would mark the first higher high since Thursday
Failure to hold the 0.8266 swing low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
Reclaim of the 0.8327 friday high invalidates the lower-high downtrend read
Holding back above the 0.8284 week open would shift the read to a range around the open
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct Fed-hike odds
Lower highs from 0.8382; post-NFP bounce stalled under 0.8300.
Thursday's London-session rejection at the 0.8382 16-month high turned the pair. The NY session took it back through 0.8300, and Friday's Asia session extended the slide as franc safe-haven demand built. The NFP miss drove a spike to the 0.8227 week low, but the NY-session bounce stalled at the 0.8298 post-NFP high, just under the 50% fib at 0.8305. Price has since drifted sideways above the 0.8282 NY low, sitting near the 38.2% fib and just under EMA(20) at 0.8291, with RSI(14) flat in the high 40s after the Sunday open.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82658, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.83048, 0.83295
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8298 post-NFP high and the 50% fib at 0.8305 breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; the 0.8330 lower high is next above
Loss of the 0.8282 NY low exposes the 0.8266 London low and the 0.8227 week low
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed-hike repricing
A broad bond-market stabilisation removes the franc's safe-haven driver behind the week-end selloff
Lower highs since 0.8382 rejection; spike low at 0.8227 bought back to 38.2%.
Thursday's London-open rejection at the 0.8382 16-month high turned the week. The NY session break below 0.8300 and Friday's broad NFP miss then extended the slide to a 0.8227 week low as the franc picked up a fiscal safe-haven bid. That spike low was bought back to the 38.2% fib near 0.8286, but price closes the week just under the EMA(20) at 0.8292 with RSI(14) near 44 and the lower-highs line from the 0.8327 Friday high still intact.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8305, 0.8327
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 50% fib at 0.8305 reclaims the 0.8300 break and tests the lower-highs line
Close above the 0.8327 Friday high ends the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.8261 London low re-exposes the 0.8227 week low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct Fed-hike odds