21:04 UTC
Uptrend stalled, sharp corrective pullback · RSI 41 · price 0.82874
Higher-high sequence broken below the 0.8321 swing low; rebound off the 50% fib.
The higher-high, higher-low advance from 0.8067 topped at the 0.8382 16m high. Price then broke the 0.8321 swing low, now a broken low, and the rising support line, as CHF safe-haven demand and fading Fed-hike odds turned the pair. The NFP miss stretched the drop to 0.8227, the 50% fib of the rally and a prior swing low, before price recovered to the 0.829 area. ATR(14) has expanded to about 31 pips and price sits below both EMAs, though EMA20 has not yet crossed under EMA50.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8227, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8321, 0.8382
What it said to watch
- An H4 close back above the 0.8321 broken low would restore the higher-high structure toward the 0.8382 16m high
- Psych resistance at 0.8300 is the first cap on the rebound, an area to watch for rejection or break
- Losing the 0.8263 pullback low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8227; failure there confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.8200 round number
- EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would mark the turn as a swing-level shift
- ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could rebuild or extinguish Oct hike odds and materially shift this read