22:04 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October high, below EMA20 and EMA50 · RSI 44 · price 0.82086
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395, deep retracement of the Sep–Oct rally.
USDCHF has been in a downtrend since the 0.8395 oct high. Supply capped the 28 Oct rebound at a 0.8313 lower high, and the hot Swiss October CPI (1.5% y/y) drove a new 0.8149 swing low. Price sits below both EMA20 and an EMA50 that is rolling over. The decline has tested the 61.8% fib of the September–October rally (0.8052–0.8395), but Tuesday closed at 0.8209, back above the fib and the 0.8192 late-October low, leaving a long lower wick, while RSI near 44 sits mid-range rather than oversold.
Support: 0.8183, 0.8149, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8149 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.8052 sep low
- Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.8183 would undo Tuesday's reclaim
- Close above the ema20 zone near 0.8252, then the 0.8313 lower high, would break the lower-high chain
- Schlegel's SNB speech (Thu 13:30 UTC) is the first official response to the CPI beat; US midterm results and ISM Services could also materially shift this read