22:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling below 0.8400 · RSI 63 · price 0.82457
Higher lows since Jan 2026 low; five-week consolidation under cycle high.
The recovery uptrend has run since the January 2026 low at 0.7604, with higher lows at 0.7762 in May and 0.7950 in August, and a Q3 push through the 0.8200 area that capped price for most of the past 18 months. The last five weeks have settled into a consolidation between the 0.8192 swing low and the 0.8395 cycle high, with a lower high at 0.8313. Price at 0.8246 holds above the 23.6% retracement of the Jan–Oct rally and about 180 pips above a rising W1 ema50 near 0.8064, so the macro structure is intact, and RSI near 63 is not at an extreme. A hot Swiss October CPI firmed the franc this week, but the closed-bar data still shows price mid-consolidation rather than breaking down.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8093, 0.8064
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.8192 swing low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8093
- Weekly close above the 0.8313 lower high reopens the 0.8395 cycle high and the 0.8400 psych level
- Loss of the higher lows trendline (near 0.809) and the W1 ema50 at 0.8064 would end the recovery read
- SNB Chairman Schlegel on Thu 5 Nov, his first reaction to the 1.5% CPI, plus the US midterm results, could materially shift this read