20:03 UTC
Uptrend since Feb, now in a pullback from the Oct high · RSI 55 · price 0.81533
Higher lows off the Feb low; pullback from the 2026 high toward the 38.2% fib.
USDCHF has been in an uptrend since the February low at 0.7629, with higher lows in May and at the August low near 0.7950 carrying price to the 2026 high at 0.8395 in early October. Repeated rejection above the 0.8300 psych level was followed by a slide this week to a weekly low of 0.8127, and the bar closed near its lows despite the strong US payrolls beat. A hawkish SNB repricing after the Swiss CPI beat, plus haven demand for CHF, outweighed the USD bid. Price now sits below the W1 EMA(20) but holds above the EMA(50) and the rising trendline, so the broader regime structure is intact while the pullback tests the 38.2% fib of the Feb–Oct move.
Support: 0.8127, 0.8102, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 0.8127 weekly low and the 38.2% fib at 0.8102 exposes the rising trendline near 0.8080 and the 50% retracement around 0.8012.
- Failure to hold the Aug low at 0.7950 would break the higher-low sequence and shift the regime read from uptrend to reversion.
- A recovery back above the 0.8300 psych level reopens a test of the 0.8395 2026 high; a weekly close through that high resumes the uptrend.
- US CPI on Tue Nov 10 is the next major input for Fed hike pricing and could materially shift this read.