The downtrend from the Q1-2025 high near 0.9156 bottomed at 0.7604 in Q1 2026; since then price has carved a rounded base and recovered into a 0.78-0.82 range. EMA(50) is flattening and price now sits just above it — the macro downtrend is stalling rather than resuming, consistent with CHF trading as the weakest G10 funding leg. The 0.8207 swing high, aligning with the 38.2% retrace of the 2025-26 decline, is the level that has capped this recovery.
Support: 0.7789, 0.7604
Resistance: 0.8207, 0.8340
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 0.8207 opens the 0.8340 prior high
Loss of the 0.78 base low reopens the 0.7604 2026 low
US CPI Aug 12 is the decisive USD-side catalyst after the NFP shock
Macro downtrend from 0.9155 (Feb 2025) bottomed at 0.7604 in Q1 2026; since then price has based and recovered into a 0.79-0.82 range. Price sits mid-range near a rising W1 EMth(50), and the recent probe toward the 0.8200 yearly high was rejected back to 0.8074. CHF remains the G10 funding laggard while the dollar is being repriced lower after the -23K July payrolls shock.
Support: 0.8000, 0.7900, 0.7600
Resistance: 0.8200
What it said to watch
US CPI (Aug 12) is the decisive catalyst and could materially shift this read
Acceptance above 0.8200 yearly high would end the range to the upside
Loss of 0.7900 range floor reopens the 0.7600 yearly low