Higher highs and higher lows off the Jan base, price above W1 EMA20/EMA50.
USDCHF has flipped out of the 2025 downtrend into a recovery regime: the 0.7604 base carved in late January has held for eight months and price now sits at 0.8258, the highest weekly close since May 2025, with the franc trading as the G10 funding leg against a tightening Fed and a 0% SNB. Price is above both W1 EMA(20) at 0.8056 and EMA(50) at 0.8030, and last week's close cleared the 0.8207 prior high — the breakout point of the multi-quarter rounded bottom. Overhead, the 0.8300 round number is the first cap, with the 0.8374 may-25 high sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the 0.8851–0.7604 down leg.
Support: 0.8207, 0.8056, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8374
What it said to watch
Weekly close above the 0.8300 round number opens the path to the 0.8374 may-25 high
A weekly close back below 0.8207 prior high would frame the breakout as a false break
SNB assessment on 24 Sep — tone rather than the 0% number is the main risk to the current CHF-funding regime
Loss of 0.8056 ema20 would bring the 0.7950 swing low back into the frame and question the higher-lows sequence
12:07 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the Q1 base, momentum building · RSI 65 · price 0.82582
Higher lows since Jan 2026 low; weekly close above the 0.8207 pivot.
The 2025 downtrend from 0.8855 ended with the Jan 2026 capitulation low at 0.7604, and the eight months since have built a rounded bottom with a sequence of higher lows — regime is now a recovery uptrend rather than decline, with price holding above a rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.7980. Last week's close at 0.8258 cleared the April 0.8207 pivot and sits just above the 50% fib of the whole 0.8855–0.7604 leg at 0.8229, the highest weekly close since May 2025, driven by the Fed's shift back into tightening against an SNB still anchored at zero. Above, the 0.8300 psych barrier and the 61.8% fib at 0.8377 are the next multi-quarter reference points, with the 2025 high at 0.8476 the ceiling of the broader recovery.
Support: 0.8229, 0.8039, 0.7980
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8377, 0.8476
What it said to watch
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment on 24 Sep — tone rather than the rate is the risk to a crowded carry-driven advance
A sustained weekly close above 0.8300 psych would extend the recovery toward the 61.8% fib at 0.8377
Weekly close back below the 50% fib at 0.8229 would mark the break as a false break and return price into the 0.8039–0.8229 range
Loss of the 0.8039 swing low and the rising base off the Jan 2026 low would end the higher-low sequence; W1 EMA(50) near 0.7980 is the macro-trend line in the sand