19:04 UTC
Uptrend off Q1 2026 low, extending · RSI 65 · price 0.82339
Higher highs and higher lows since January; price at upper end of the 2026 range.
The 2025 downtrend from 0.8850 ended with the 0.7604 low in January 2026, and the base built through Q1 has since resolved into a steady multi-quarter advance of higher weekly lows. Price closed at 0.8234, the strongest weekly close since May 2025, holding well above a rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.7985 — macro regime is trending higher, driven by the policy divergence between a re-tightening Fed and an SNB anchored at 0%. Weekly RSI at ~65 is firm but not yet at an extreme, and the 0.8300 psych level plus the 0.8340 2025 high mark the first meaningful supply overhead.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8039, 0.7985
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8340
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above 0.8300 psych would extend the advance toward the 0.8340 2025 high
- SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Thu 24 Sep 07:30 UTC — language on FX intervention and inflation is the regime risk for this read
- Loss of 0.8185 prior high would break the sequence of higher weekly lows and reopen the 0.8039 quarter low
- A weekly close back under the 0.7985 w1 ema50 would invalidate the uptrend regime