11:44 UTC
Uptrend, at 16-month high · RSI 60 · price 0.82266
Higher highs and higher lows since the January base.
Regime has flipped from the 2025 downtrend to a recovery uptrend that began with the rounded bottom at 0.7604 in late January, and price has since reclaimed the 0.8000 round number and printed a fresh 16-mth high at 0.8264. Price trades well above a rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.7965, so macro structure is upward-sloping, the advance driven by policy divergence — a tightening Fed against an SNB parked at 0% with CHF used as the funding leg. The rally now sits almost exactly on the 50% retracement of the 0.8855-0.7604 downleg, leaving the 0.8300 psych level as the next structural reference.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8000, 0.7965
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8300, 0.8474
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 0.8300 psych level opens the 61.8% retracement near 0.8377 and, beyond it, the 0.8474 prior high
- Loss of the 0.8185 pivot low would break the recovery sequence of higher lows and bring the rising base trendline back into focus
- SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Thu 24 Sep 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep are the events capable of reshaping this weekly read