19:04 UTC
Uptrend since Q1 2026 low, at 16-month highs · RSI 61 · price 0.82287
Higher highs and higher lows off a double bottom; July high cleared, price at 50% fib of 2025 decline.
USD/CHF has been in a recovery uptrend since the Q1 2026 double bottom at 0.7604/0.7629, printing higher lows at 0.7762 and 0.7950 along a rising trendline and this month clearing the July high at 0.8207 to 16-month highs. Price sits on the 50% fib retracement of the 0.8855–0.7604 decline, well above a rising EMA50 near 0.8032, so the macro filter has flipped from the 2025 downtrend regime. Policy divergence is the driver: the SNB held at 0% last week while Fed hike pricing rebuilt, with the Sept high at 0.8264 and the 2025 Q2 high band near 0.8340 the next caps and RSI at 61, short of an extreme.
Support: 0.8207, 0.8032, 0.7950
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.8264, 0.8340
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the Sept high at 0.8264 and the 2025 Q2 high band near 0.8340 opens the 61.8% fib near 0.8377
- Weekly close back below the July high at 0.8207 would mark a false break of the 2026 high and stall the move at the 50% fib
- Loss of the rising trendline and ema50 near 0.8030, then the Aug low at 0.7950, would break the higher-low sequence
- US ADP/PCE on Wed, Swiss CPI on Thu and NFP later in the week move October Fed hike odds, the main USD/CHF driver