Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8052 low; tight consolidation under a triple cap.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the early-month 0.8052 low. The latest leg from the 0.8183 swing low reached 16-month highs, driven by the hawkish-Fed versus dovish-SNB divergence after Thursday's SNB hold. Price has since stalled beneath 0.8300, printing a triple cap at 0.8296–0.8298 over the last two days, while ATR(14) near 22 pips shows the range compressing under that ceiling. EMA20 remains above EMA50, with both below price.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8229, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8298 triple cap opens the path toward 0.8347 and the 0.8400 round number
Rising support from the 0.8183 swing low tracks near 0.8260, alongside the 0.8263 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8263 prior high exposes the 0.8229 breakout low near the 61.8% fib
Break below the 0.8183 swing low would end the higher-low sequence
Fed's Hammack today, US ADP/GDP on Sep 30 and Swiss CPI on Oct 1 could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 16-month high · RSI 71 · price 0.82843
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.8026; tight consolidation under 0.8298.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 0.8026 low. The dovish SNB hold and hawkish Fed pricing carried price through the 0.8264 breakout level, which was the prior spike high. The pair has since stalled in a tight consolidation, capped three times at the 0.8298 16-month high. RSI near 71 reads stretched, ATR(14) is steady around 22 pips, and EMA20 sits above EMA50, with the latest impulse off the 0.8183 higher low still intact above the higher-low trendline.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8229, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8298 16-month high opens the path to the 0.8350 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8264 breakout level exposes the 38.2–50% fib zone of the impulse (0.8254–0.8241) and the 0.8229 swing low
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.8183 higher low would end the uptrend sequence
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC) could shift October hike odds and this read
Swiss CPI on Oct 1 06:30 UTC is a CHF-side risk to the breakout holding
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8067 swing low; prior high at 0.8262 broken.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.8067 swing low. The rally has now cleared the 0.8262 prior high that capped price twice, after the dovish SNB hold and a hawkish Fed backdrop widened the policy gap. Price is testing the 0.8300 round number near 16-month highs with RSI overbought. ATR(14) sits around 22 pips, contained given the breakout, and price holds above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8241, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8262 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the fib 50% zone near 0.8241 keeps the rising support and higher-low sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.8183 swing low breaks the higher-low structure
Sustained acceptance above the 0.8300 round number leaves the 0.8400 psych level as the next marked reference
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) today could shift October hike pricing and this read
Swiss CPI on Thu Oct 1 is the main CHF-side risk to the overbought extension
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending to new highs · RSI 71 · price 0.8292
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8067 low; breakout above the 0.8264 prior high.
Higher-low structure is intact along a rising trendline from the 0.8067 low. The mid-month pullback held at the 0.8183 swing low, and the new impulse has cleared the 0.8264 prior high, carried by the hawkish Fed repricing and yesterday's dovish SNB hold. Price is now pressing the 0.8296 swing high just under the 0.8300 psych level, with RSI in overbought territory and ATR(14) near 22 pips, expanding rather than compressing; the fib 50% of the latest impulse sits at 0.8240.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8240, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8264 prior high would mark a false break of the breakout
Sustained trade above the 0.8300 psych level extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8183 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low structure
Williams, US durables and UoM inflation expectations today could shift the read
Swiss CPI on Oct 1 is a risk for CHF short-covering from overbought levels
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.8052, holding above the broken 0.8264 prior high.
USDCHF has built a clean higher-high, higher-low sequence from the 0.8052 low. The latest impulse leg ran from the 0.8183 swing low to a 0.8296 swing high and cleared the 0.8264 prior high as the dovish-leaning SNB hold widened the rate gap against a hawkish Fed. Price at 0.8281 is consolidating just under the swing high, with both EMAs rising beneath it, RSI near 68 short of overbought and ATR(14) around 22 pips, a moderate rather than stretched range regime.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8253, 0.81833
Resistance: 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 0.8264 prior high would mark a false break and expose the 0.8253 fib 38.2 of the impulse leg
Acceptance above the 0.8296 swing high and the 0.8300 round number extends the higher-high sequence toward 0.8347
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 0.8183 swing low would end the higher-low structure
Friday's US durables and UoM inflation expectations, then Swiss CPI on Oct 1, could materially shift this read; a haven CHF bid on Iran headlines is a further risk