Higher highs/higher lows intact; three-day consolidation under the 0.8264 swing high.
The H4 sequence of higher highs and higher lows off 0.8010 remains intact, with the hawkish Fed hike having powered the impulse leg to a 16-month swing high at 0.8264 before supply capped the move. Price has since drifted into a tight 0.8206-0.8239 consolidation, slipping under EMA20 while holding well above the rising ema50 near 0.8196; ATR(14) at ~18 pips marks a clear compression against the volatility of the breakout bar. Pullback has been shallow and contained inside the prior impulse range rather than reversing it.
Support: 0.8206, 0.8196, 0.8175
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8206 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and open the ema50 at 0.8196
Reclaim of the 0.8239 range top would put the 0.8264 swing high and the 0.8300 psych level back in play
Loss of 0.8175 breakout base would negate the uptrend read on this timeframe
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT and US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the two events capable of resolving this consolidation
Higher highs/higher lows intact; consolidation under the 0.82638 high.
The hawkish Fed dot plot powered a clean breakout through 0.8199 into a 16-mo high at 0.82638, and price has since spent roughly a dozen bars rotating in a 0.82060–0.82638 band. Structure is still higher highs over higher lows off the 0.80521 and 0.81532 pivots, but the last three bars closed under the 0.82230 ema20 for the first time since the breakout, with RSI back to the mid-40s. ATR(14) near 19 pips marks a clear compression against the 40+ pip expansion seen on the breakout leg — the range edges now define the next move.
Support: 0.8206, 0.8191, 0.81532
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.82060 swing low would break the consolidation and put the 0.81910 ema50 in play
Reclaiming the 0.82230 ema20 and closing above 0.82638 opens the path toward the 0.83000 round number
Loss of 0.81532 sep swing low would end the higher-low sequence
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT (held at 0% expected) and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events most likely to break this range
Higher highs/lows, now two-week consolidation under 0.8264.
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8010 area have kept the H4 uptrend intact, but the advance has flattened out: repeated attempts at the 0.8264 range high were capped and this bar closed at 0.82111, back under EMA20 near 0.8232 and pressing the 0.8216 range low. The impulse leg that broke 0.8175 came on the back of last week's hawkish Fed hike, with CHF sold as the cheap funding currency. ATR(14) around 20 pips shows that post-breakout expansion already compressing into a two-week consolidation between the range low and range high, with EMA50 near 0.8199 still below price.
Support: 0.8216, 0.8175, 0.8153
Resistance: 0.8232, 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Consecutive H4 closes below the 0.8216 range low would break the consolidation and expose the 0.8175 prior base, then the 0.8153 swing low
Reclaiming EMA20 and an H4 close above the 0.8264 range high would reopen the 0.8300 round number
SNB policy assessment and press conference Thu, plus US flash PMIs Wed, are the events most likely to resolve this consolidation
Higher highs / higher lows, tight range at the highs.
Higher highs and higher lows have been in place since the 0.8008 low three weeks ago, and last week's hawkish Fed repricing powered the impulse through the 0.8199 range top to a 16-month high at 0.82638. Price has since consolidated in a tight 0.8216-0.8264 band, still holding above a rising ema20 near 0.8227 with EMA20 above EMA50. ATR(14) near 20 pips marks clear compression after the single expansion bar, the classic pause-after-impulse profile rather than distribution.
Support: 0.82159, 0.8227, 0.8199
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.82159 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and put the 0.8199 range top back in play
Close above the 0.82638 swing high opens the path to the 0.8300 psych level
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events most likely to resolve this compression
Loss of the ema20 on a closing basis would be the first sign the consolidation is rolling over
Higher highs / higher lows, now consolidating under the range high.
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.80521 swing low, with last week's hawkish Fed hike driving the impulse bar that took USD/CHF to a 16-month range high at 0.82638. The last nine bars have compressed into a 0.82159-0.82638 band and ATR(14) has slipped back to roughly 21 pips from the breakout expansion, while price holds above EMA20 and the rising EMA50 near 0.81900 tracks the advance from below. The 0.81911 prior high marks the pre-breakout shelf that was cleared on the Fed move.
Support: 0.82159, 0.81911, 0.8190
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.82638 range high opens the path to the 0.83000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.82159 range low would print the first lower low since the breakout, exposing 0.81911
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC plus US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially reset this consolidation read
Higher highs and higher lows; last 12 bars ranging under the 0.8264 high.
The sequence of higher lows off 0.8153 remains intact and the hawkish Fed hike drove a single-bar impulse through the 0.8191 breakout base to a 16-month range high at 0.82638. Since that expansion bar, price has spent twelve H4 candles compressing between 0.82159 and the 0.8260s, with ATR(14) back to roughly 24 pips and supply capping each attempt at the range high. EMA20 (~0.8223) and EMA50 (~0.8182) are both below price and still rising, so the pullback has so far been sideways rather than corrective.
Support: 0.82159, 0.81911, 0.8182
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.82638 range high would extend the impulse toward the 0.8300 psych level
An H4 close below the 0.82159 range low would break the post-breakout consolidation and put the 0.8191 break base back in play
Loss of the 0.8182 ema50 would end the higher-low sequence that has held since 0.8153
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the SNB assessment Thu 07:30 UTC are the two events capable of resolving this compression