Post-FOMC range broken lower, first lower low since Wednesday's spike.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike produced the week's dominant move, a single-bar impulse from 0.8181 to a week high of 0.8264 during the NY session, after which price spent two days boxed between the 0.82264 range base and that high. Friday's NY hours saw that base give way as yields and the dollar came off the boil — soft US industrial production added to the fade — leaving the last closed bar at 0.82185, below both EMA(20) near 0.8237 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) down to ~31 after cycling 45–65 all week. Rejection at 0.8258 twice on Friday preceded the break, and price is now pressing the 0.82177 session low.
Support: 0.82177, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82264, 0.82375, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Recovery of the 0.82264 range base would restore the post-FOMC consolidation read
Sustained trade below the 0.82177 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.81815 pre-fomc low
Fedspeak Monday (Goolsbee 10:30 UTC) is the first catalyst in the data lull and can reshape this pullback
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC is the main event risk for the week's structure
Post-impulse range, probing the base after lower highs.
The week's dominant move was a single-hour, 68-pip impulse out of the 0.8182 break base into the NY session on the hawkish Fed hike, which printed the 0.8264 week high and has framed everything since. Price has consolidated in a 0.8218–0.8264 band for three sessions and slipped to the range base into the Friday close as USD profit-taking and softer US industrial production trimmed the move; price now sits below EMA(20) at ~0.8238 with RSI(14) down near 33. Each attempt at the upper band has produced a slightly lower high, and 0.8300 remains untested.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8182
Resistance: 0.8238, 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.8238 ema20 would reverse the sequence of lower highs inside the range
A close below the 0.8218 range base confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.8182 break base
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Wed US flash PMIs are the events most likely to reset this range
Two-day consolidation under the week high, now pressing the range base.
The week's dominant move was a single bar: the FOMC hour in Wednesday's NY session lifted price ~68 pips off 0.8175 to the 0.8264 week high, and everything since has been consolidation between roughly 0.8222 and that high. Friday's NY session has walked the pair down to the range base at 0.8218 after softer US industrial production and a pullback in crude took the edge off the dollar, leaving price below EMA(20) at 0.8242 for the first time since the breakout and RSI(14) near 41. Spot is sitting on the 50% retracement of the FOMC impulse, so the two-day base and that fib zone overlap here.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.8242, 0.8264
What it said to watch
Hourly closes below the 0.8218 session low would confirm a lower low and put the 0.8185 pre-fomc shelf back in focus
Recovery back above the 0.8242 ema20 would keep the consolidation read intact rather than a breakdown
Rejection at the 0.8264 week high on any retest would extend the lower highs sequence
Monday Fedspeak (Goolsbee) is the first event risk after the weekend break and could reset this range
Post-impulse range, lower highs into the range low.
The week's entire directional move came in one bar: the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot shift on Wednesday lifted USDCHF from 0.81815 to 0.82495 in a single hour, and the pair has done nothing but consolidate since. Price has spent three sessions boxed between the 0.82225 range low and the 0.82550-0.82638 range top, with rejection from 0.82598 in yesterday's NY session followed by a slide back under EMA(20) at 0.82430. RSI(14) at 43 has cycled down from the upper 60s without a fresh high, and the last two bars are pressing the day low at 0.82257.
Support: 0.82257, 0.82225, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8243, 0.8255, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.82225 range low would confirm a lower low and end the post-Fed consolidation read
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.82430 would restore the sideways range read and put the 0.82550 range top back in play
SNB decision and press conference Thu 07:30-08:00 UTC — presser wording rather than the hold is the structural risk to this range
Failure to hold above the pre-fed close at 0.81815 would unwind the entire impulse
Post-FOMC range, higher lows into a flat 0.8260 cap.
The week's entire move came in one bar: the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot revision at the Wednesday 18:00 UTC print lifted USDCHF ~68 pips from 0.81815 to 0.82495, and price has gone sideways ever since. Since then the pair has held a 0.82225–0.82638 band, with the range top at 0.82598 rejecting three separate attempts and a sequence of higher lows (0.82225, 0.82257, 0.82312) building underneath. Friday's NY session has price pinned just under a flattening EMA(20) near 0.8245 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the soft US industrial production miss did little to the structure.
Support: 0.82312, 0.82225, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.8245, 0.82598, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.82598 range top would put the 0.82638 week high back in play
Loss of 0.82312 day low and then the 0.82225 range floor would break the higher-lows sequence
Reclaiming the 0.8245 ema20 on a closing basis is the first sign the pullback is done
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Fedspeak from Monday could materially shift this read
Wednesday's Fed hike produced the only impulsive move of the week — a single-bar jump from 0.8182 to 0.8250 into the London-NY transition — and price has done nothing since but rotate in a 40-pip band. Three sessions of chop have left closes pinned around the ema20 at 0.8246, with the range floor at 0.8234 absorbing each dip and supply capping attempts near the prior high at 0.82598. RSI(14) has cycled between 42 and 60 without reaching an extreme, consistent with consolidation rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.8234, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.82598, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.82638 week high would mark resumption of the post-FOMC breakout
Loss of the 0.82225 week low would negate the consolidation read and confirm a failed extension
Repeated rejection at the prior high near 0.82598 while the range floor holds keeps the band intact
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT can materially reshape this range; Fed speakers from Monday are the nearer catalyst
Higher lows into a tight range beneath the week high.
The week's dominant move was a single-hour 70-pip surge off 0.81752 into the Wednesday FOMC hike and hawkish dot path, which lifted price to the 0.82638 week high; everything since has been sideways digestion between roughly 0.8225 and the 0.82598 range top. Price has spent the last two sessions pivoting around EMA20 near 0.8246, with the 0.82257 day low and 0.82225 swing low forming a shallow series of higher lows through the NY session yesterday and into Friday's London hours. RSI(14) at ~55 has cooled from post-FOMC extremes without price giving back the impulse, and hourly ranges have compressed to an ATR near 11 pips.
Support: 0.8246, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82598, 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82598 range top and the 0.82638 week high would extend the post-FOMC breakout toward the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of 0.82225 swing low breaks the rising-lows sequence and invalidates the consolidation-above-EMA20 read
Sustained trade back below EMA20 near 0.8246 would flag the range shifting its centre of gravity lower
Calendar is empty into the weekend; the SNB assessment and US flash PMIs next week sit beyond this window but frame the range resolution
The week's dominant move came in a single bar at Wednesday's NY session Fed decision, when the pair jumped ~70 pips from 0.81815 to close 0.82495 on the hawkish hike, then extended to the 0.82638 week high. Since then price has done nothing but consolidate in a 0.82225–0.82638 band, with the range low holding through Thursday's NY hours and Friday's early-Asia dip to the 0.82257 day low. Price sits marginally above EMA(20) at ~0.82455 with RSI(14) flattened near 49 — momentum has drained out of the breakout rather than reversed.
Support: 0.82455, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82598, 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82638 week high would resume the breakout leg and put the 0.83000 psych level in reach
Loss of the 0.82225 range low would invalidate the consolidation read and expose the post-Fed gap area
Repeated failures at the 0.82598 day high while EMA(20) breaks would flip the structure to lower highs
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed's Bowman are the only USD-side catalysts left this week; SNB decision Thu 24 Sep is the next high-impact CHF risk
11:03 UTC
Uptrend on the week, momentum stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.82488
Post-FOMC breakout holding; three-day sideways band above the 0.8196 shelf.
Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC bar did all the work this week: USDCHF ripped from 0.8182 to 0.8250 in a single hour on the hawkish hike and dot-plot shift, then printed the week high at 0.82638 in the next bar. Price has gone sideways since, boxed between a 0.82225 range floor and the 0.82638 range top, with the EMA(20) near 0.8246 sitting mid-band and RSI(14) back to roughly 56 after cooling from post-FOMC extremes. Thursday and Friday sessions have both failed at the 0.82551 friday high while dips into 0.82257 were bought back within the hour.
Support: 0.8246, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82551, 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82638 week high / range top would resume the post-FOMC impulse and put the 0.8300 psych level in play
Sustained loss of the 0.82257 friday low, then the 0.82225 range floor, breaks the consolidation read; EMA(20) at 0.8246 is the first pivot below spot
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT today is the only near-term US print; the SNB decision on 24 Sep is the larger event risk for this pair
Higher base, four sessions of sideways consolidation under the week high.
The dominant move of the week was a single-bar FOMC impulse during Wednesday's NY session, which lifted the pair out of the 0.8180s straight to the week high at 0.82638 after the hawkish Fed hike and upgraded dot path. Since then price has done nothing but consolidate between the range low at 0.82225 and that high, with a sequence of lower highs from 0.82638 and marginally higher lows off today's session low at 0.82257. Spot is pinned on the ema20 at 0.82446 with RSI(14) flat around 51 — momentum has drained out of the breakout without any give-back of it, consistent with easing US 10y yields trimming rather than reversing the post-Fed dollar rally.
Support: 0.82446, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82525, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82525 prior high would put the 0.82638 week high back in play and break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.82225 range low invalidates the post-FOMC consolidation read and puts the higher-lows line at risk
US Industrial Production today (13:15 GMT) is the only near-term US print; softer data alongside lower crude has been the driver of this week's stall
SNB decision next Thursday is the single largest CHF-side event risk to this structure
Post-breakout range between 0.8225 and 0.8264, lower highs.
The week's entire directional move came in one bar: the 18:00 GMT FOMC hawkish hike on Wednesday lifted USDCHF from 0.8181 to 0.8250, and the pair has done nothing but consolidate between the 0.82225 range low and the 0.82638 week high in the 39 bars since. Price is pinned on a flat EMA(20) at 0.82443 with RSI(14) back at 50 after fading from overbought, while today's high at 0.82525 marks a lower high against Wednesday's 16-month peak. Thursday's solid Swiss trade surplus had no visible effect on the chart; the drift lower into the Asia session was positional rather than structural.
Support: 0.82443, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82525, 0.82638, 0.8275
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.82638 week high would resume the post-FOMC trend toward the 0.8275 band top
Loss of the 0.82225 range low ends the four-day base and confirms a lower low
Sustained trade back below the flat EMA20 at 0.82443 keeps the range read intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT is the only scheduled risk inside the next few bars
Post-breakout range 0.8225-0.8264, marginal higher lows since Thursday.
The week's dominant move came in a single hour during Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike lifted USDCHF from 0.8182 to 0.8250 and on to a 0.8264 week high — roughly 70 pips of one-bar expansion out of a Monday-to-Wednesday 0.8152-0.8199 base. Since then price has gone sideways in a 0.8223-0.8264 band for two sessions, with Thursday's 0.8223 low and Friday's 0.8226 dip forming near-identical bases and pullbacks stalling at the EMA(20) around 0.8244. RSI(14) has unwound from post-Fed overbought back to 52 while price sits in the upper third of the range into Friday's London hours, so the impulse has been digested rather than reversed.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8223, 0.8199
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8275, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8264 week high would extend the breakout toward the 0.8275 band top and the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.8223 range low would break the higher-lows sequence and put the pre-fed top at 0.8199 back in play
Failure to reclaim the EMA(20) at 0.8244 on pullbacks would flag fading follow-through
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT today is the only scheduled catalyst before the weekend; SNB on 24 Sep is the larger structural risk to this range
Post-breakout consolidation: higher lows under lower highs.
The week's dominant move was a single hour: the hawkish Fed hike late in Wednesday's NY session lifted USDCHF from 0.8182 to 0.8250 and on to the 0.82638 week high, a 16-month extreme. Since then price has done nothing but digest that impulse, coiling between the 0.82225 thu low and the 0.82522 day high with RSI(14) unwinding back to the mid-40s/50 and price pinned around the ema20 at 0.82435. Thursday's London-NY slide and Friday's Asia dip to the 0.82257 session low have both been bought back, leaving a tight higher-low base beneath a series of lower highs.
Support: 0.82435, 0.82257, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.82522, 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.82638 week high reopens the 0.83000 psych barrier
Loss of the 0.82225 thu low breaks the post-Fed consolidation floor and confirms a lower low
Sustained trade below the ema20 at 0.82435 would flip the consolidation drift lower
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) are the near-term drivers of this range
Post-breakout consolidation with a marginal higher low.
Wednesday's NY-session FOMC bar broke the week's 0.8180s coil in one 68-pip candle and carried USDCHF to a week high of 0.82638 on the Fed–SNB divergence trade; the pre-fomc base near 0.81815 has not been revisited. Since then the pair has consolidated between the 0.82225 range low and the 0.82638 week high, with the 0.82522 range top capping the last two attempts and RSI(14) unwinding from overbought to about 56. The Asia session closed sitting right on EMA20 at 0.82427 after a 0.82257 day low held, marginally above Thursday's low.
Support: 0.82257, 0.82225, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82427, 0.82522, 0.82638
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.82225 range low would end the higher-low sequence built since the breakout
Sustained acceptance above the 0.82522 range top would put the 0.82638 week high back in focus
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) land inside the next bars and could resolve the consolidation
SNB decision on 24 Sep is the larger CHF event risk beyond this range
Higher base above the pre-FOMC range, lower highs since Wednesday's peak.
Monday and Tuesday held a tight 0.8150–0.8199 band before the hawkish Fed hike late in Tuesday's NY session lifted price 70 pips in a single bar to 0.8264, the week high. Since then the market has gone sideways in a 0.8226–0.8264 consolidation, with each attempt back toward the highs capped a little lower and the last two NY-hours bars closing under the EMA(20) at 0.8243. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-40s from overbought, and price is now sitting on the EMA(50) with the range low the nearest reference below.
Support: 0.8226, 0.8199
Resistance: 0.8243, 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An hourly close below 0.8226 range low would confirm a lower low and put the 0.8199 pre-fomc top back in play
Reclaiming the 0.8243 ema20 and closing above 0.8264 week high would re-open the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC fall inside the next few bars and could break the consolidation either way
Failure of the range to hold into the London-NY transition would end the post-FOMC continuation read
Higher base above the 0.8200 prior break, now two days of sideways consolidation under the week high.
Wednesday's NY session produced the dominant move of the week — a single H1 bar from 0.81815 to 0.82495 on the hawkish Fed hike, clearing the long-defended 0.8200 prior break and printing a week high at 0.82638. Since then price has done nothing but consolidate in a 0.82225–0.8264 band, with the last two sessions pinned between the range floor and a series of marginally lower highs. The latest bars have slipped back under EMA(20) near 0.82445 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, so the impulse has flattened out rather than extended toward the 0.8275 range top.
Support: 0.82225, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82445, 0.82638, 0.8275
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above EMA(20) at 0.82445 would restore the consolidation's upper half and put the 0.82638 week high back in play
Loss of the 0.82225 range floor would break the post-Fed base and shift focus back toward the 0.8200 prior break
BoJ decision is imminent pre-London and Fed's Bowman plus US Industrial Production land later today — either can reset this H1 range
SNB assessment on 24 Sep is the larger structural risk to the consolidation given how one-way the week has been
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 50 · price 0.82486
Higher highs into a sideways band below the week high.
Monday through Wednesday traded a tight 0.8153–0.8199 band before the FOMC hawkish hike in Wednesday's NY session produced a single 68-pip H1 impulse through the 0.8200 barrier to a 0.82638 week high. Since then price has gone sideways between the 0.82225 range floor and roughly 0.8258, with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought back to the 50 line and pullbacks repeatedly stalling around the ema20 near 0.8246. Yesterday's session gave back part of the move as the dollar bid faded with Treasury yields, but the post-breakout structure of higher lows off 0.82225 is intact.
Support: 0.8246, 0.82225, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8275, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.82638 week high reopens the 0.8275 range top and the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.82225 range floor breaks the post-FOMC consolidation and puts 0.8185 key support back in focus
Sustained trade back under the ema20 near 0.8246 would flatten the higher-low sequence
US Industrial Production today and the SNB decision on 24 Sep are the scheduled risks that could reshape this range
Post-breakout consolidation, higher lows since Thursday's low.
Monday through Wednesday traded a dead 0.8153–0.8199 range before the hawkish Fed hike lit a single 68-pip hourly candle in Wednesday's NY session, tagging a 16-month week high at 0.82638. Since then price has done nothing but consolidate the impulse: Thursday's NY session dug out the 0.82225 thu low, the 0.82340 low around the NY close held, and Friday's Asia session is coiling in a sub-10-pip band right on the EMA20 at 0.82442. RSI(14) has unwound from post-FOMC extremes back to 53, and the 0.82500 round number has capped every attempt since Thursday morning.
Support: 0.82442, 0.8234, 0.82225
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.82638
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.82638 week high would end the consolidation and re-engage the FOMC impulse
Loss of 0.82225 thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence built since Thursday's NY session
Sustained trade back under the EMA20 at 0.82442 keeps the 0.82340 ny close low in focus
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC (f/c +0.3%) fall inside the next session and can break this range top
SNB decision 24 Sep is the larger CHF-side event risk to this structure
The week's entire directional move came in a single hour: the FOMC-reaction candle in Wednesday's NY session lifted price from 0.81752 to 0.82495, clearing the 0.8180s shelf that had contained Monday and Tuesday. Since then it has been two sessions of sideways work between the 0.82225 range low and the 0.82638 week high, with price now pinned on EMA(20) at 0.8245 and RSI(14) unwound from overbought to the mid-40s. Higher lows at 0.82225 and 0.8234 give the consolidation a mild upward tilt, but each push toward 0.8260 has been capped.
Support: 0.82225, 0.81815
Resistance: 0.82455, 0.82638, 0.8275
What it said to watch
An hourly close above 0.82638 week high would end the consolidation and put the 0.8275 band top in play
Loss of the 0.82225 range low would confirm a lower low and shift the read to a deeper retracement of the FOMC impulse toward the pre-fed base at 0.81815
Repeated closes back below EMA(20) at 0.8245 keep the flat-range read intact
Fed's Bowman (07:30 UTC) and US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC) fall inside the next session and could resolve the range
Post-breakout consolidation above ema20, marginally higher lows since the 0.8223 low.
Wednesday's NY session delivered the only directional move in this window: one hourly bar carried USDCHF from 0.8182 to 0.8250 on the hawkish Fed hike, and the pair has done nothing but consolidate 0.8223–0.8264 since. The week high at 0.8264 has capped four separate attempts while ema20 near 0.8246 keeps catching the dips, with ema50 rising into 0.8231 beneath it. RSI(14) has unwound from post-impulse extremes back to the low 50s without price giving back the breakout — flat momentum rather than reversal.
Support: 0.8246, 0.8231, 0.8223
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8264 week high opens the path to the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.8223 range low would end the higher-low sequence built since Thursday
Sustained trade back below ema50 at 0.8231 would invalidate the post-breakout consolidation read
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the near-term catalysts for a break of this band