Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8052 low; four-day consolidation under the 16-mo high.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.8052 swing low, and the hawkish Fed hike produced a single 88-pip H4 impulse bar that broke the 0.8200 shelf and printed a 16-mo high at 0.82638. The last twelve bars have gone sideways in a 0.82225-0.82638 band with price still above both EMA20 and the rising EMA50 near 0.8210 — ATR(14) around 23 pips is back in line with the pre-breakout regime, i.e. compression inside the consolidation. RSI near 65 is firm but no longer expanding, consistent with a pause rather than fresh extension.
Support: 0.82225, 0.8210, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 0.82638 16-mo high opens the path to the 0.8300 psych level
H4 close below the 0.82225 range low breaks the consolidation and puts the ema50 near 0.8210 and the 0.8185 prior break area back in scope
SNB decision and press conference Thu 24 Sep (07:30/08:00 UTC) is the main event risk for this structure; US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC also in the window
Loss of the rising higher-lows trendline would invalidate the uptrend read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 70 · price 0.82557
Higher highs and higher lows; post-breakout consolidation under the window high.
The pair has built an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the 0.80521 base three weeks ago, and the hawkish Fed hike triggered a single 90-pip H4 impulse bar from 0.81752 to the 0.82638 window high — a 16-month high. Since that bar price has gone sideways in a tight 0.82225-0.82638 consolidation, with ATR(14) at roughly 22 pips after expanding sharply on the breakout candle. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 70 shows momentum stretched rather than turning.
Support: 0.82225, 0.81752, 0.81532
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8275, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.82638 window high extends the breakout leg toward the 0.8275 range top and the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.82225 swing low would mark the first lower-low since the breakout and put the 0.81752 breakout low back in play
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Thu 24 Sep 07:30 UTC, plus US flash PMIs Wed, are the events capable of resetting this structure
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 68 · price 0.82498
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8052 pullback low; post-breakout consolidation under the highs.
The sequence of higher lows off 0.8052 stayed intact through the window and resolved higher with a single 88-pip impulse bar that broke the 0.8191 prior cap and printed a 16-month high at 0.8264 — the Fed's hawkish hike and widened Fed–SNB spread being the stated driver. The five bars since have gone sideways in a tight 0.8225–0.8264 band with price holding above both EMA20 (~0.8222) and EMA50 (~0.8185), so the breakout has been digested rather than rejected. ATR(14) at roughly 23 pips is inflated by that one impulse candle; the subsequent bars are compressing back toward the pre-break range, and RSI near 68 shows momentum stretched but not yet rolling.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8191, 0.8153
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 0.8264 16-mth high would extend the breakout toward the 0.8300 psych barrier
Loss of 0.8225 band low would put the 0.8191 prior cap and the EMA50 back in play
A close back under 0.8153 swing low would break the higher-low sequence that has defined the window
SNB decision Thu 24 Sep 07:30 UTC — the FX-intervention and inflation language, not the rate, is the element that could reshape this structure
US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep could materially shift the read given how much of the move is Fed-spread driven
Higher highs and higher lows; consolidation under the window high.
USDCHF has trended higher for three weeks in a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows, and the 16 Sep hawkish Fed hike produced the largest impulse bar of the window, a near 70-pip candle that printed the 16-mth high at 0.82638. Price has since gone sideways between 0.82225 and that high, holding above a rising EMA20 near 0.8217 with EMA20 above EMA50 throughout the advance. ATR(14) around 22 pips is inflated by the single breakout bar; the last four bars have compressed well inside it, which is the signature of post-impulse consolidation rather than distribution.
Support: 0.82225, 0.8217, 0.8185
Resistance: 0.82638, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.82638 16-mth high extends the impulse toward the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.82225 swing low and the ema20 would break the current consolidation and put the 0.8185 range base back in play
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Thu 24 Sep — intervention/inflation wording is the main structural risk to the multi-week uptrend
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, extension after breakout · RSI 70 · price 0.82497
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating under the high.
USDCHF has printed an unbroken sequence of higher highs and higher lows off the 0.7986 base three weeks ago, and the impulse bar through 0.8199 — the prior high — carried price to a 16-mo high at 0.8264 as the Fed's hawkish hike met an SNB expected to stay at zero. The last six bars have held a tight 0.8225-0.8264 shelf with price above both EMA20 and EMA50, the faster average still stacked above the slower. ATR(14) near 21 pips is expanded versus the pre-breakout grind, so the current sideways shelf reads as digestion of that move rather than a structural top.
Support: 0.8225, 0.8199, 0.8153
Resistance: 0.8264, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8264 (16-mo high) extends the breakout leg toward the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.8225 range floor on a closing basis puts the 0.8199 prior high back in play as the first retest zone
A close below the 0.8153 swing low would break the higher-low sequence for the first time in the window
SNB decision and press conference on 24 Sep, plus US Industrial Production today, are the near-term events capable of reshaping this read