USD/CHF broke out of the week-long 0.8287–0.8349 range after the second straight hot US core CPI print lifted October Fed hike odds against a 0% SNB. The pair cleared the 0.8382 prior high and set a window high at 0.8395. The 0.8287 higher low sits above the early-October 0.8227 swing low, so rising lows are intact, price holds above both EMAs, and ATR(14) is expanding out of a compressed regime near 16 pips.
Support: 0.8382, 0.8349, 0.8313
Resistance: 0.8395, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8382 prior high would flag a false break of the swing high
A return below the 0.8349 range top puts price back inside the prior range and negates the breakout
Failure to hold the 0.8313 swing low breaks the rising lows sequence
0.8395 window high and the 0.8400 round number are the areas to watch for rejection or break
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT today and Thursday's 12:30 GMT Retail Sales/PPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8382 against higher lows from 0.8227, converging.
The sharp drop from the 0.8382 swing high to the 0.8227 impulse low has been mostly retraced. Twin tops at 0.8347/0.8349 form a double cap at the 78.6% level, and the range floor holds near 0.8287. Lower highs and higher lows are compressing price into a narrowing coil. ATR(14) has roughly halved from the early-October expansion, and the EMA20 and EMA50 sit flat and close together just under price. USD/CHF is drifting near 0.8330 as the USD corrects off its highs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US September CPI today 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 0.8349 double cap breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8382 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.8287 range floor exposes the 0.8227 impulse low
A break of either the higher-lows or the lower-highs line ends the compression read
Lower highs from 0.8382, higher lows from 0.8227; converging range.
Since the early-October flush from the 0.8382 17m high to the 0.8227 swing low, the pair has carved lower highs and higher lows. It is now coiling between the 0.8287 range low and the 0.8349 range top, which has capped twice, with Monday's USD peak rejected there. Price sits just under flat, tightly bunched EMA20/EMA50 at the 23.6% of the recovery fib. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 14 pips, about half the late-September regime, as the USD correction drifts into today's US CPI.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT: a hot core print puts the 0.8349 range top and 0.8382 17m high back in play
H4 close above 0.8349 breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
H4 close below 0.8287 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.8227 swing low
Recovery fib 50% at ~0.8288 aligns with the range low as the key support confluence
ATR compression near 14 pips is consistent with an imminent range break
Higher lows pressing into a flat 0.8349 cap; contracting triangle.
Since the sharp drop from the 0.8382 17m high to the 0.8227 swing low, USD/CHF has printed higher lows at 0.8287 (prior low) and 0.8313. Supply has capped twice at the 0.8347–0.8349 range top, which also lines up with the 78.6% retracement of that decline, so price is coiling inside a triangle bounded by lower highs and rising support. ATR(14) has roughly halved to about 14 pips, and price sits only marginally above the flat, converging EMA20 and EMA50 as USD drifts off Monday's highs into US CPI.
Support: 0.83131, 0.82872, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8349 range top (78.6% cap) breaks the triangle and opens the path to the 0.8382 17m high
Failure to hold the 0.8313 higher low and the rising support line exposes the 0.8287 prior low
Loss of 0.8287 would leave the 0.8227 swing low as the next structural floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: the core vs headline split could materially shift this read out of the compression