Higher lows from Asia; tight consolidation under 0.8270.
London broke the 0.8233–0.8248 Asian range and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%, leaving a rising-lows chain at 0.8233, the 0.8242 london low and the 0.8257 ny swing low. Early Asia has gone flat under the session high after the rollover dip to 0.8257 was bought back, and the ny swing low sits on the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path toward 0.8300 psych resistance
Break below the 0.8257 ny swing low and 38.2% retracement ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8242 london low and the rising-lows line would negate the intraday uptrend read
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; moves in the 10y yield near 5.13% remain the main driver
23:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 58 · price 0.8269
Higher lows from 0.8233; price pinned under the 0.8270 session high.
USDCHF climbed through London and NY as the US 10y yield rebounded to ~5.13%. The move built higher lows from 0.8233 before London, through the 0.8242 swing low early in NY, to the 0.8257 NY swing low, and topped at a 0.8270 session high. Early Asia is compressing just beneath that high, which is also the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range, while the 0.8257 NY swing low sits at the 38.2% retracement of the day's leg.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8242
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high breaks the range top and opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8257 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8242 swing low and the rising trendline
Ignore the rollover gap to 0.8257 at the daily open; it was a thin-liquidity spread print, not a structural low
A slip in US yields from ~5.13% or a renewed AI-led equity wobble could reverse the day's yield-driven gains
23:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 54 · price 0.8268
Higher lows from the 0.8242 NY low, flat cap at 0.8270 session high.
Monday's climb out of the 0.8233–0.8248 Asian range extended through London and NY as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. Price set a 0.8270 session high during NY hours and retested it late session without a break. The thin post-rollover dip held the 0.8257 swing low, which sits at the 50% level of the NY leg fib, and higher lows remain intact.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8242
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range and opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8257 swing low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 0.8242 NY low
US 10y yield direction and AI-equity swings remain the driver into Tuesday's ADP and housing data
Higher-low chain from the London-open low; 0.8257–0.8270 band since the NY high.
USD/CHF printed higher lows from the 0.8233 day low at London open, through the 0.8242 pullback low in the London-NY transition, to a 0.8270 day high in NY as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. Since then price has held a 0.8257–0.8270 band. The NY low and the thin rollover dip both held near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 52.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419, 0.82334
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 day high clears the 0.8220–0.8270 range top, leaving the 0.8300 round number as the next overhead level
Failure to hold the 0.8257 NY low (38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8242 pullback low
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Thin Asia session liquidity, with US 10y yields and AI-equity moves as the live drivers
Loss of the rising support from the day low would turn the day's structure into range-only
22:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 55 · price 0.82665
Higher-low chain from London open; flat cap at 0.8270.
Higher lows from the 0.8233 London-open low carried USD/CHF to a 0.8270 session high in NY as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. Two tests of the session high were rejected, in line with the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range. The NY pullback and the rollover dip both held the 0.8257 NY swing low, near 50% of the NY leg fib, and price is back at 0.8266.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high breaks the range top and opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8257 NY swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 0.8242 London low next
Post-rollover liquidity is thin into the Asia session, so spikes off the 0.8257 NY swing low may be spread-driven
Shifts in US 10y yields around 5.13% or renewed AI-equity selling could reset this read
22:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 51 · price 0.82648
HH/HL chain from Asian low; 0.8270 capping twice.
Monday's climb ran from the 0.8233 Asian low through London and NY to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y rebounded to 5.13%. That high saw rejection at 16:00 and again at 20:45 UTC. The rollover dip held above the 0.8257 swing low, near the 50% fib of the NY leg, and early Asia trades back near 0.8265 on thin ranges, with RSI neutral around 51.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419, 0.82334
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high breaks the UOB 0.8220–0.8270 range top and opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8257 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.8242 ny low
Break of rising support from the Asian low (near 0.8253) shifts the read to range
US 10y yield slipping back from 5.13% or renewed AI-equity selling could reverse the yield-driven leg
21:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 48 · price 0.82597
Higher-low chain from Asian low; double rejection at 0.8270.
Monday built higher lows from the 0.8233 Asian low through London and NY as US 10y yields firmed toward 5.13%, shrugging off the NAHB miss at 29. NY twice rejected the 0.8270 session high, at the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range. The thin rollover prints then dropped price to 0.8260, which sits on the ny leg fib 38.2% just above the 0.8257 swing low, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 swing low turns the 0.8270 double rejection into a double top and exposes the 0.8242 ny open low
Close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path to 0.8300 psych resistance
Rollover-hour prints at 0.8260 are illiquid; the Asia session reopen may reprice them
Break of the rising trendline (~0.8253) undercuts the higher-low chain and points back toward the 0.8233 asian low
US 10y yield moves and Fed-speaker headlines remain the main swing factor, with no scheduled data in the next few hours
Higher lows from the Asian low; twin highs near 0.8270.
USD/CHF built higher lows off the 0.8233 Asian low, cleared the Asian range in London and extended to a 0.8270 session high in NY as US 10y yields rebounded toward 5.13%. Twin highs at 0.8270 capped late-NY trade. Thin rollover prints at 0.8260 sit on the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, with the 0.8257 swing low just below.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419, 0.82334
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8257 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone and the 0.8242 NY low
Losing rising support near 0.8252 would end the higher-low chain from the 0.8233 Asian low
An M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range and opens the 0.8300 round number
The last bars are flat rollover prints on thin trade, so quotes may reset once the Asia session reopens
US 10y yield swings around 5.13% and AI-equity moves remain the dominant driver
After a retest of the 0.8233 Asian low into London open, the pair broke the Asian range and built higher lows through NY as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. The NAHB miss left no lasting mark. The 0.8270 session high was rejected twice, and thin rollover prints at 0.8260 sit below EMA20, just above the 0.8257 swing low and the 38.2% fib of the 0.8233–0.8270 leg.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 0.8242 midday low
Clearance of the 0.8270 session high resumes the leg, with 0.8300 psych the next reference
Rollover and early Asia liquidity is thin; prints near 0.8260 may not reflect the true level
US yield moves and AI-equity headlines could materially shift this read in the Asia session
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 59 · price 0.82668
Higher lows through London and NY; late-NY compression just below 0.8270.
USD/CHF built higher lows from the Asian low near 0.8233 as the US 10y yield rebounded about 7bp to 5.13%. London broke the Asian high at 0.8252, and NY extended to the 0.8270 session high at 16:00 UTC. The 17:30 UTC pullback held at the 0.8257 swing low, near the 50% retrace of the NY leg, and late NY is compressing 0.8266–0.8269 just under the high with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the 0.8220–0.8270 range top and puts the 0.8300 round number in view
Failure to hold the 0.8257 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 0.8252 Asian high back into play
Loss of 0.8252 exposes the 0.8242 NY low, the base of the NY leg
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and swings in the US 10y around 5.13% could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.8242; tight range under 0.8270 late NY.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.8252, and the NY rally carried price to a 0.8270 session high as US 10y yields firmed toward 5.13%. The pullback held the 0.8257 swing low near the 50% retrace, keeping the higher-lows chain intact. Late in NY, price is compressing just under the session high, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high extends the higher-high chain, with 0.8300 round number the next reference
Break below the 0.8257 swing low snaps the higher-lows trendline and exposes the asian high at 0.8252, then the ny low at 0.8242
Thin Asia session ahead: US yield and AI-equity moves are the main swing factor; Tue 12:15 UTC US housing data is the next scheduled risk
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 0.82667
Higher lows since Asia; late-NY consolidation below 0.8270.
USD/CHF held a 0.8233 Asian low, broke the 0.8252 Asian high in London and ran to a 0.8270 session high in NY as US 10y yields rose about 7bp to 5.13% and French protests weighed on EUR. The pullback found buyers at the 0.8257 swing low, near 50% of the NY leg, and price is now holding just under the session high late in NY, above rising support from the Asia and NY open lows.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8270 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.8300 round number
Break of 0.8257 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8252 Asian high, then the 0.8242 ny open low
Loss of rising support from the 0.8233 Asia low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, plus US 10y yield moves around 5.13%, could shift this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 60 · price 0.82669
Higher-low chain since London; Asian range broken above, session high under retest.
USD/CHF broke above the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range during London and kept printing higher lows through NY. The ~7bp rebound in US 10y yields to 5.13% drove the move. A late-NY retest of the 0.8270 session high stalled at 0.8269 as ATR compressed to ~3 pips, and the 0.8257 swing low, near 50% of the NY leg, is holding the structure.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high extends the HH chain, with the 0.8300 round number the next reference
Break of the 0.8257 swing low and the rising NY trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8252 Asian high
Loss of the 0.8242 pivot low would unwind the full London-NY leg
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; US 10y yield holding or fading around 5.13% is the main driver of this read
Higher lows since London; lower high just under 0.8270.
After the Monday gap, the pair held the 0.8233 Asian low twice. London broke the Asian range high at 0.8252, and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as US 10y yields rebounded toward 5.13%. Late NY is compressing just under that session high, with the 0.8257 higher low intact and ATR shrinking to around 3–4 pips.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8257 higher low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8242 swing low
A US yield rollover from ~5.13% or equity-led risk-off could reverse the NY gains
Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC US housing starts and permits could shift the read
Higher lows through NY, retesting 0.8270 session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8252 as US yields rebounded. NY then ran from the 0.8242 NY low to a 0.8270 session high. The pullback printed a higher low at 0.8257, near the 50% fib of that rally, and late-NY price is back pressing the session high with RSI(14) at 59.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8257 higher low and the rising NY trendline shifts the read to range
Loss of the 0.8252 Asian high, then the 0.8242 NY low, unwinds the London breakout
Thin calendar overnight; moves in US 10y yields (~5.13%) and Fed-speaker headlines are the main swing factors
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high late NY · RSI 62 · price 0.8268
Higher-low chain from the Asian low; Asian range broken higher in London.
London broke above the 0.8252 Asian high and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. Higher lows at the 0.8242 London low and the 0.8257 pullback low keep the chain intact. Late NY, price is back at the session high with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high, also the top of the cited 0.8220-0.8270 range, opens the 0.8300 psych level
Break of the 0.8257 pullback low, which sits at the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline, ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8252 Asian high
Loss of the 0.8242 London low would negate today's uptrend read
Fed-speaker headlines and US 10y yield swings are the main risk into the Asia session; US housing starts are due Tue 12:30 UTC
Higher lows above broken Asian range, late-NY retest of session high.
USD/CHF broke out of the Asian range (0.8233–0.8252) during London. It extended to a 0.8270 session high in NY as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. The late-NY pullback held the 0.8257 swing low near the 50% fib, extending the higher-low trendline from the 0.8242 NY low. Price is back testing the session high with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the 0.8220–0.8270 range top and opens the path to 0.8300 psych resistance
Break below the 0.8257 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8242 NY low
Loss of 0.8242 NY low puts price back toward the Asian low at 0.8233
US Housing Starts/Permits Tue 12:30 UTC and moves in the 10y yield around 5.13% could shift this read
Higher lows from the 0.8242 pullback low, 0.8270 session high capping.
London broke above the 0.8252 Asian high and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y rebounded to 5.13%. Late-NY dip held a 0.8257 swing low near the 50% fib of the NY leg, and price is back pressing the session high on a rising trendline from the 0.8242 pullback low.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8257 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8252 Asian high and 0.8242 pullback low
No scheduled data overnight; Fed-speaker headlines or a reversal in US yields could shift this read
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain intact, higher low at 0.8257.
London broke above the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. The pullback from the session high held a higher swing low at 0.8257 and is holding above the intraday trendline into late NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8270 session high extends the HH chain and opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8257 swing low breaks the intraday trendline and exposes the 0.8252 Asian high, then the 0.8242 NY low
US 10y yield slipping back below 5.13% could unwind the London-NY leg; no scheduled USD or CHF data in the next 8h
18:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 0.82588
Higher lows since NY low; lower high at 0.8265 after 0.8270 top.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8252, and NY extended from the 0.8242 NY low to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. Price has eased to a 0.8257 pullback low near the 50% retracement, capped by a 0.8265 lower high and sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.82566, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82647, 0.82704
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8252 Asian high
Reclaim of the 0.8265 lower high reopens the 0.8270 session high
Thin late-NY and Asia session liquidity; US yields remain the driver, with no scheduled data until Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts
18:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 0.82588
Higher lows from 0.8233; Asian range broken above, now consolidating 0.8257–0.8270.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8252 as US 10y yields rebounded toward 5.13%. NY extended the higher-low sequence to a session high at 0.8270. Late NY price is holding the 0.8257 pullback low, close to the 38.2% fib and flat against EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8252, 0.8242
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 pullback low exposes the 0.8252 Asian high for a retest
Loss of the 0.8242 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline read
Close above the 0.8270 session high puts 0.8300 psych resistance in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US yield moves around 5.13% remain the driver
HH/HL chain since the Asian low; tight consolidation after a rejection at the session high.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8252 in London. It extended through NY as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%, before a rejection at the 0.8270 session high around London close. Late in NY, price is holding a narrow band above the 0.8258 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 58 and the higher-low trendline from the 0.8233 Asian low intact.
Support: 0.82579, 0.82523, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the cited 0.8220–0.8270 range top, with the 0.8300 round number next
Loss of the 0.8258 pullback low (near the NY leg fib 38–50%) turns focus to the Asian high at 0.8252
Break below the 0.8242 NY low and the higher-low trendline ends the intraday HH/HL chain
A reversal lower in the US 10y yield could materially shift this read; no scheduled data before Tuesday's 12:30 UTC housing releases
USDCHF built higher highs and higher lows through London and NY, breaking the 0.8252 asian high as the US 10y yield rebounded to 5.13%. Rejection at the 0.8270 session high around 16:00 UTC, the top of the cited 0.8220–0.8270 range, was followed by a shallow pullback that held the 0.8258 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the leg up from the 0.8242 higher low. The rising trendline from that low remains intact.
Support: 0.8258, 0.8252, 0.8242
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8258 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.8252 asian high
Loss of the 0.8242 higher low ends the HH/HL chain
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high clears the range top, with 0.8300 round number the next reference
Thin calendar: Fed-speaker headlines and the US 10y around 5.13% could shift this read after NY close
Higher-low chain from Asian low, breakout above London high now being retested.
USDCHF broke the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range and the 0.8259 London high during NY hours, with CHF softening as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. The NAHB miss at 14:00 UTC barely registered. Price printed a session high at 0.8270, then dipped to a retest low at 0.8258 that held near the former London high and the 38.2% fib of the NY leg. RSI(14) is cooling to ~63 after the push.
Support: 0.82579, 0.82419, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8258 retest low turns the breakout into a deeper pullback toward the rising trendline
Break of the 0.8242 swing low ends the higher-low chain from the Asian low at 0.8233
Close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Fed-speaker headlines or a reversal in US 10y yields from 5.13% could materially shift this read in thin late-NY trade
Higher lows from 0.8233 and 0.8242 into a 0.8270 high; shallow pullback in NY.
USD/CHF broke the Asian range high near 0.8252 in London as US 10y yields rebounded to 5.13%. It printed higher lows at the 0.8233 Asian low and the 0.8242 London low, then set a session high at 0.8270 around London close. That level is the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range cited in the market digest, and it drew a rejection. The pullback low at 0.8258 holds a shallow, roughly 38–50% retrace of the 0.8242–0.8270 leg, with RSI(14) cooling to around 62.
Support: 0.8258, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8258 pullback low exposes the 0.8242 London low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.8233 Asian low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Fed-speaker headlines and US 10y moves around 5.13% could shift this read; no scheduled data before Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 0.82602
Higher lows since Asia; Asian range broken higher, NY high rejected at 0.8270.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.8252 and NY extended to a 0.8270 session high as the US 10y held near 5.13%, but the move was rejected at the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 range. After London close, the pullback is sitting on the 0.8258 pullback low at the 38.2% retrace of the NY leg, with rising lows still intact.
Support: 0.8258, 0.8252, 0.8242
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8258 pullback low exposes the 50–61.8% NY leg fib zone and the Asian high at 0.8252
Close above the 0.8270 session high breaks the range top, with the 0.8300 psych level next
Loss of the 0.8242 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain
US yield moves and Fed-speaker headlines could shift this read; Housing Starts due Tue 12:30 UTC
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 67 · price 0.82659
Higher-low chain from 0.8233 Asia double low; Friday high cleared.
USD/CHF built higher lows off the 0.8233 Asia double low and cleared the 0.8259 prior high (Friday's high and the midday NY peak). It printed a session high at 0.8270, the top of the 0.8220–0.8270 band, as US 10y yields firmed to 5.13%. RSI(14) is near 67 and the last two bars are stalling just under 0.8270; the NAHB miss drew little reaction.
Support: 0.8259, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8270 session high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Return below the 0.8259 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the fib 50% near 0.8256
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8242 swing low would end the higher-low chain
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed-speaker headlines and US yield moves around 5.13% are the main risk to this read
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending into NY hours · RSI 66 · price 0.8269
Higher lows since London open, break above prior high.
USD/CHF cleared the 0.8259 prior high, the London and Friday peak, during NY hours as US yields extended their rebound. The NY leg from the 0.8242 swing low is now pressing the 0.8270 range top into the London close. The Asian range of 0.8233 asian low to 0.8252 is well below, and rising lows from the London open remain intact with RSI(14) firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8259, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8270 range top opens the 0.8300 round number
Close back below 0.8259 prior high would mark the move as a false break
Loss of 0.8242 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and puts the 0.8233 asian low back in view
US 10y yield near 5.13% is the driver; a reversal lower in yields could unwind the NY leg
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into NY afternoon · RSI 68 · price 0.8269
Higher lows since Asia, London high taken out.
Buyers held the 0.8242 NY low after the dip, and a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 Asian low then carried price through the 0.8259 London high and Friday's high. The pair is now pressing the 0.8270 range top after London close despite the soft NAHB print, with RSI(14) near 68 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.8259, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8270 range top extends the breakout, with the 0.8300 round number next above
Slip back below the 0.8259 London high, which aligns with the 38.2% of the NY leg fib, would mark a false break
Break of the rising support from the Asian low, or loss of the 0.8242 NY low, ends the higher-low sequence
Fed speaker comments shifting October hike odds could materially move this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in NY · RSI 61 · price 0.82597
Higher-low chain off 0.8242; Friday high broken, price testing it from above.
London cleared the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range, and the NY leg from the 0.8242 swing low pushed through the 0.8260 Friday high to a 0.8262 session high. The NAHB miss (29 vs 32) did not cap the move. RSI(14) ~61 and ATR ~6 pips; price is sitting on the Friday high, with the 0.8255 higher low beneath.
Support: 0.82596, 0.82547, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.82621, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8260 Friday high would flag a false break
Loss of the 0.8255 higher low breaks the NY chain; the 50% of the NY leg (~0.8252) and the 0.8242 swing low sit below
Acceptance above the 0.8262 session high opens the 0.8270 range top
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; AI-equity tone and US yields remain the swing factor
Higher-low chain from 0.8233; Asian range broken higher, price testing 0.8260 cap.
London broke above the 0.8252 Asian high, and NY has extended the higher-low chain along rising support from the 0.8233 Asian low. The NAHB miss (29 vs 32) did not reverse the move. Price is now testing 0.8260, the Friday high, where the 12:30 and 14:45 UTC spikes were both capped; RSI(14) at 59 shows no stretch.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8260 Friday high clears the session cap and opens 0.8270, the round number at the top of the UOB range
Rejection at 0.8260 followed by a slip back below the 0.8252 Asian high would turn the breakout into a range
Failure of the 0.8242 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low sequence; the London-NY leg's 61.8% retracement sits near the same area
London close and AI-equity direction in NY hours, the dollar's main driver per the digest, could shift this read
15:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Friday high · RSI 59 · price 0.82574
Higher lows since 0.8233 Asian low; third test of 0.8260.
Monday's opening gap faded to 0.8233, and an Asian range formed at 0.8233–0.8248. London broke above it with a higher-low chain, and NY extended to 0.82597, shrugging off the NAHB miss; supply capped price at the 0.8260 Friday high for the third time, with RSI(14) at 59 and the micro low at 0.8255 holding.
Support: 0.82547, 0.82466, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 Friday high opens the 0.8270 range top flagged by UOB
Loss of the 0.8255 micro low puts the fib 50% at 0.8247 in focus
Break below the 0.8242 swing low and the rising trendline undoes the London higher-low structure
AI-equity swings and front-end US yields remain the driver of Fed pricing and USD intraday
A chain of higher lows from the 0.8233 asian low through the 0.8242 higher low has carried price back to the 0.8260 prior high, the Friday and session high, in early NY trade, with the NAHB miss not denting the bid. The first test of that level at 12:30 UTC met rejection and a 17-pip dip. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 prior high clears the double cap and opens the 0.8270 range top
Second rejection at 0.8260 followed by a break of the 0.8242 higher low would end the higher-low line and expose the 0.8233 asian low
Fed speaker headlines or AI-equity swings moving front-end US yields could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Asia; NY dip held above Asian high zone.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8233–0.8248 Asian range on a chain of higher lows, capping at the 0.8259/0.8260 session high, level with Friday's high. A first-hour-of-NY dip to the 0.8242 ny dip low was bought back, and today's NAHB miss (29 vs 32) failed to dent the advance; price is back at the session high with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.8248, 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 session high clears Friday's high and opens the 0.8270 range top
Rejection at 0.8260 leaves a twin cap with Friday's high; a break of the 0.8242 ny dip low also breaks rising support
Close back below the 0.8248 asian high returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.8233 asian low next
Fedspeak or AI-equity swings moving front-end US yields could shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
14:16 UTC
Intraday grind higher, capped at session high · RSI 53 · price 0.8251
Higher lows off 0.8233, lower high at 0.8254 after 0.8259 rejection.
London lifted USDCHF off the 0.8233 Asian low to a 0.8259 session high. That high matched Friday's peak and was rejected into a 0.8242 swing low near the NY open, a 67% pullback of the London leg. The bounce to 0.8251 has stalled under a 0.8254 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53, and the soft-USD tone from AI-equity stress and fading Fed hike odds keeps the upside capped so far.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8259
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8259 session high breaks the Friday/Monday double cap
Failure to hold the 0.8242 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8233 Asian low
Acceptance above the 0.8254 lower high would restore the London higher-high chain
US tech-equity and front-end yield swings remain the main driver with no scheduled data in the next 8h
14:02 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalled at Friday high · RSI 53 · price 0.8251
London broke the Asian range; rejected at 0.8259, now mid-range.
London broke above the 0.8233–0.8250 Asian range and ran to 0.8259 into the NY open, where it stalled at Friday's high. The pullback low at 0.8242 held above the rising London trendline. Price sits at 0.8251 under a 0.8254 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and USD soft as Fed hike odds fade.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8238, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8259
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8259 friday high breaks the rejection and extends the London higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8242 pullback low and the 0.8238 london low breaks the rising London trendline
A break below the 0.8233 asian low exposes Friday's 0.8218 low
US tech-equity swings and front-end yields are the dominant USD driver into the NY afternoon
Capped at 0.8260 Friday high, back inside Asian range.
London pushed through the Asian range high and tagged 0.8259 in the first hour of NY. Supply capped it just under the Friday high at 0.8260 and price fell to a 0.8242 NY low, now on the 61.8% fib of the 0.8233–0.8259 leg. With US yields soft on the AI-stock sell-off, price sits mid-range between 0.8233 and 0.8260.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8242 ny low exposes the 0.8233 asian low
Loss of 0.8233 opens the 0.8218 friday low, the floor of this window
Reclaim of the 0.8255 london high puts the 0.8260 friday high back in play
No USD or CHF data in the next 8h; tech-equity moves and US 2-year yields drive the read
London higher-low grind into Friday high, rejected; back inside 0.8233–0.8260 range.
London ground higher from the 0.8238 london low to retest the 0.8260 friday high, where a rejection in the first hour of NY sent price back to the 0.8243 ny low. That move cut through the london trendline and sits near the 61.8% of the london leg fib. The soft-USD tone, with Fed hold odds near 84% and an AI-led yield slide, keeps the 0.8233 asian low to 0.8260 range intact; RSI(14) is at 44 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.82427, 0.82375, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8243 ny low exposes the 0.8238 london low and the 0.8233 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8255 london high reopens the 0.8260 friday high; acceptance above invalidates the range read
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; US tech equities and 2y yields after the NY cash open are the swing factor
Higher lows since London open; capped at the Friday high.
From the 0.8233 session low just before London open, the pair built a chain of higher lows (0.8238 pivot low, 0.8245 swing low) despite soft USD tone in the digest. The early-NY push to 0.8259 was rejected right at the 0.8260 Friday high. Price is back near 0.8251 with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8238, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 Friday high breaks the two-session ceiling
Loss of the 0.8245 swing low and the rising lows trendline turns the London uptrend into a range
Break below the 0.8238 pivot low exposes the 0.8233 session low, near the 61.8% of the London rally fib
US tech equities and front-end yields remain the main USD driver into the NY afternoon
13:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Friday high · RSI 55 · price 0.82513
HH/HL chain since Asian low, rejected at 0.8259.
London built a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 Asian low and through the 0.8255 prior high. That carried price to 0.8259 in the first hour of NY, where it was rejected at Friday's high. The pullback now sits on the rising London trendline near 0.8250, RSI(14) neutral at 55. A soft USD backdrop leaves the pair inside the digest's 0.8220–0.8270 consolidation.
Support: 0.8250, 0.82454, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8245 london hl breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8233 asian low
Close above the 0.8259 friday high clears the double rejection and opens the 0.8270 range top
Renewed US AI-equity selling, the main USD drag, could undercut the trendline during NY hours
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, capped at the session high.
The London leg built a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 Asian low and cleared the Asian range top near 0.8252. Supply capped the 0.8255 session high at 11:00 UTC, and the pullback held the 0.8245 swing low. Into the London-NY transition, price is back testing the high with RSI(14) near 62, not stretched, despite the soft-USD, firm-CHF digest backdrop.
Support: 0.82454, 0.82334
Resistance: 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 session high opens the 0.8260 Friday high
Break of the 0.8245 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8233 Asian low
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed communication ahead of the October FOMC is the main event risk to this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 57 · price 0.8250
Higher lows from the Asian low; marginal break of the Asian high.
London built a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 Asian low and edged through the Asian high to a 0.8255 session high before stalling. Price is consolidating near 0.8250 into the NY open with RSI(14) near 57, firm despite the soft USD tone from AI-equity selling.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8238, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 session high opens the Friday high at 0.8260
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8245 swing low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the London low at 0.8238
Loss of the 0.8233 Asian low would reverse the session structure
No US or CHF calendar events in the next 8h; Canada CPI and AI-equity headlines during NY hours are the main USD risk
London higher-low chain off 0.8233, capped near the Asian high.
London built a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 session low, with the London dip at 0.8238 holding. Price poked above the 0.8252 Asian high to a 0.8255 session high before slipping back. Into the NY open price sits at 0.8250 with RSI(14) neutral near 55, holding firm despite the soft-USD tone in the digest.
Support: 0.82454, 0.82375, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 session high opens the 0.8260 Friday high
Break of the 0.8245 higher low and rising trendline ends the London HL chain
Failure at the 0.8233 session low would negate the intraday uptrend
AI-equity risk sentiment is the main near-term USD driver in the NY session
12:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London open · RSI 56 · price 0.82505
HL chain off 0.8233 session low, capped at 0.8255 session high.
Price swept below the Asian range into the 0.8233 session low just before London open. It has since built a higher-low chain and cleared the asian high near 0.8248, despite the soft-USD tone in the digest. The 11:00 UTC push was rejected at the 0.8255 session high, but the pullback held the 0.8245 swing low between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the London leg.
Support: 0.8248, 0.82454, 0.82334
Resistance: 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8245 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the London trendline
Acceptance back under the 0.8248 asian high returns price to the Asian range
Close above the 0.8255 session high opens the 0.8260 friday high
Loss of the 0.8233 session low invalidates the London recovery
No US/CHF data in the next 8h; US AI-equity moves around the NY open are the main USD driver
London higher lows intact; false break above Asian high.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range to a 0.8255 session high, but the 11:15 bar dropped back below the Asian high, leaving a false break so far. The London higher-low trendline still holds near 0.8245. Price is pinned to a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) near 56, against the soft-USD backdrop in the digest.
Support: 0.82454, 0.82375, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8245 breaks the London HL trendline and exposes the 0.8238 swing low
Close back above the 0.8255 session high negates the false break; the Friday high at 0.8260 is next
Loss of the 0.8233 Asian low brings the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the digest into play
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; NY open and AI-equity risk tone are the likely USD drivers
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 57 · price 0.82526
Higher-low chain off 0.8233 double bottom, testing Asian range top.
London held the 0.8233 Asian low twice, forming a double bottom. Price has since stepped up through higher lows at the 0.8240 swing low and the 0.8244 higher low to a 0.8255 session high, firming despite the soft-USD tone in the digest. The friday high at 0.8260 caps the move, and RSI(14) near 57 shows no stretch.
Support: 0.82439, 0.82404, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82549, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 friday high clears Friday's range top
Break below the 0.8244 higher low and the rising lows trendline returns price toward the 0.8240 swing low
Loss of the 0.8233 asian low invalidates the double bottom
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed speaker or AI-equity headlines around the NY open could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.82503
Higher-low chain off the Asian low, pressing the session high.
After the Monday gap faded to the 0.8233 Asian low on soft-dollar tone, London lifted the pair through the Asian range top near 0.8248 and printed a series of higher lows, the latest a 0.8244 swing low on a retest. Price is now capped at the 0.8254 session high in the middle of the London session, with Friday's high at 0.8260 overhead and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 Friday high extends the London breakout
Break below the 0.8244 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and returns price into the Asian range
Loss of the 0.8233 Asian low reverses the London leg
NY open and US AI-equity tone could shift the read, with no data on the calendar
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 56 · price 0.82503
Asian range broken higher; HL chain 0.8233→0.8244, session high 0.8254.
USD/CHF held the Asian low at 0.8233 into London open and has since printed a higher-low sequence, lifting through the Asian range top and the Monday open spike to a session high at 0.8254. That recovery runs against the soft-USD backdrop in the digest, where fading October Fed-hike pricing and the AI-equity sell-off are weighing on the dollar. RSI(14) sits mid-50s and the 0.8244 higher low lines up with the 50% retracement of the London leg; the next overhead reference is Friday's prior high at 0.8260.
Support: 0.82439, 0.82375, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.82538, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8244 higher low breaks the London HL chain and puts the 0.8238 london low back in play
A move through the session high at 0.8254 brings Friday's prior high at 0.8260 into view
Loss of the 0.8233 asian low would undo the London recovery and re-open Friday's 0.8218 trough
NY open with AI/tech equity direction and Fed speaker tone could shift this read, given a soft-USD backdrop and an empty calendar
10:46 UTC
Intraday grind higher, stalling under session high · RSI 57 · price 0.82491
Higher lows since 0.8233 inside the Asian range, top at 0.8253 capping.
London built a higher-low chain off the 0.8233 Asian low and pushed to a 0.8253 session high, only marginally above the 0.8252 Sunday-open spike before stalling. RSI(14) is neutral near 57. A soft USD on firm Fed-hold pricing has kept rallies contained below the friday high at 0.8260.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8253 session high clears the Asian range top and brings the 0.8260 friday high into view
Loss of the 0.8240 higher low breaks the London trendline and returns price to mid-range
Close below 0.8233 asian low exposes the 0.8218 friday low
No US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed-hold repricing and AI-equity tone remain the main drivers
10:31 UTC
Intraday grind higher, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 0.82506
London higher-low chain testing the Asian range high.
The London leg off the 0.8233 Asian low has printed higher lows at 0.8238 and 0.8240, lifting price to a 0.8253 session high that sits level with the Asian range top. RSI(14) is near 62 and not stretched. The bounce runs against the digest's soft-USD tone on Fed-hold pricing, with the 0.8260 Friday high the next cap overhead.
Support: 0.8249, 0.8240, 0.82331
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 friday high clears the top of Friday's range
Slip back below the 0.8249 prior high puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 0.8240 higher low and the London higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.8233 asian low
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed commentary and the AI-equity tone remain the swing factors
Asian range break higher, higher lows through London.
London cleared the 0.8233–0.8248 Asian range after an asian low at 0.8233 near the open, printing higher lows at the 0.8238 london low and 0.8240. Mid-London, price is testing the 0.8253 monday high with RSI(14) near 61. The bid runs against the digest's soft-USD tone, with the friday high at 0.8260 next overhead.
Support: 0.8248, 0.8238, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8248 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the 0.8238 london low ends the higher lows chain
A close above the 0.8260 friday high opens the path toward the 0.8300 handle
No USD/CHF calendar events are due in the next 8h; AI-equity tone and Fed hold odds remain the swing drivers into the NY open
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the Asian low, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 0.8252
Higher lows 0.8233 / 0.8238 / 0.8241 through London, testing the 0.8253 Monday high.
A double bottom at the 0.8233 Asian low launched a London leg higher. Price has cleared the early 0.8249 London high and is pressing the 0.8253 Monday high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched. The bounce runs against a soft-dollar backdrop, with roughly 84% October Fed hold odds capping USD.
Support: 0.8248, 0.8241, 0.8233
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8248 London high would mark the push as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8241 higher low breaks the London HL trendline
Acceptance above 0.8260 clears the Friday high from the NY session
No USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker tone and AI-equity risk headlines could shift this read
09:46 UTC
Sideways, rising lows into flat top · RSI 52 · price 0.82469
Monday range 0.8233–0.8250; London printing higher lows under the session high.
Monday's gap higher faded to the 0.8233 Asian low as fading Fed-hike odds kept USD soft. Mid-London, price has printed rising lows at 0.8233, 0.8238 and the 0.8240 swing low. It has been rejected three times at the 0.8250 session high. RSI is neutral near 52, with no momentum extreme.
Support: 0.8240, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8250 session high opens the 0.8252 gap high and 0.8260 friday high
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.8240 swing low returns focus to the 0.8233 asian low
Loss of 0.8233 asian low exposes the 0.8218 friday low near the 0.8220–0.8227 neckline
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Fed speaker or AI-equity headlines are the main unscheduled risk
London rotating inside the Asian range 0.8233–0.8252.
London leg off the 0.8233 Asian low stalled just under the 0.8250 Asian high three times, and price is back mid-range near 0.8241 with RSI(14) flat at 46. A soft USD tied to the AI-equity selloff and firmer Fed hold odds has kept the rally capped, while the Asian low has held on every test.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low opens the friday low at 0.8218, near the 0.8220–0.8227 double-top neckline
M15 close above the 0.8250 asian high exposes the friday high at 0.8260
Loss of the 61.8% of the London leg near 0.8240 puts the Asian low back in play
Fed speaker commentary shifting the ~84% October hold pricing could break the range
Since the Monday open-gap faded, USD/CHF has held a 0.8233–0.8250 range through Asia and early London. The range low at 0.8233 held twice, at 22:00 and 06:45 UTC, close to the 61.8% retrace of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 leg. London's push to the range top was rejected, and price now sits on EMA20 near the 38.2% level with RSI(14) flat at 50. That fits the digest's soft but range-bound USD read.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8260
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8233 range low breaks the double bottom and exposes the friday low at 0.8218, which sits at the 0.8220–0.8227 neckline area flagged in the digest
A close above the 0.8250 range top opens the friday high at 0.8260
No scheduled USD/CHF events in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines or a deeper AI-equity selloff could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Sideways, contained inside Asian range · RSI 55 · price 0.82476
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 intact; London higher lows capped under 0.8250.
Early London is trading inside the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range. Three pushes toward 0.8250 met rejection below the asian high, while the london low at 0.8238 sits above the pre-London dip, forming higher lows. RSI(14) is in the mid-50s and ATR is about 6 pips, consistent with a dollar held in check by firm Fed hold pricing rather than a trending move.
Support: 0.82378, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8252 asian high breaks the range and exposes the 0.8260 friday high
Loss of the 0.8238 london low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.8233 asian low back in focus, then the 0.8218 friday low
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines shifting October hold odds could change this read
08:31 UTC
Sideways, early London rejection · RSI 45 · price 0.82381
Inside Asian range 0.8233–0.8252, mid-range.
Monday is still trading inside the 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range. The London open push stalled at 0.8250, below the Asian high, and one bar erased it, putting price back at mid-range near the 50% of the friday swing fib (0.8218–0.8260). RSI(14) sits near 45 with price under both EMAs, while softer USD on firm Fed hold pricing keeps rallies contained.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8260
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8233 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8218 friday low near the 0.8220–0.8227 neckline
Close back above the 0.8250 london high reopens the Asian high and the 0.8260 friday high
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines shifting October hold pricing could move this read
Inside Asian range 0.8233–0.8252, higher low at London open.
London opened with a dip to 0.8233 that held the Asian low a second time, forming a double bottom. Price then rebounded 16 pips to 0.8250 and stalled just under the Asian high at 0.8252. The CHF bid on softer Fed hike pricing has not extended below the range floor.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8252 Asian high breaks the range and opens the friday high at 0.8260
A close back below the 0.8241 London base, the 50% fib of the rebound, weakens the double bottom read
Failure to hold the 0.8233 Asian low exposes the friday low at 0.8218
No USD/CHF calendar events in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines and Hormuz or French yield headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252, double bottom at range low, testing range top.
After Asia reversed the early Monday pop on neutral Fed remarks, a second test of the 0.8233 asian low just before London formed a double bottom. London lifted price to 0.8250, just shy of the 0.8252 asian high, with the 0.8241 london base holding and RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8252 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the path to the 0.8260 friday high
Loss of the 0.8241 london base returns price to mid-range; a close below the 0.8233 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 0.8218 friday low
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines shifting October hold pricing could materially change this read
07:46 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 52 · price 0.82442
0.8233–0.8248 Asian range; London open retested the Monday low and bounced to the range top.
Monday's gap up to the 0.8252 monday high faded as USD gave back its haven bid, leaving a 0.8233–0.8248 Asian range with a range floor near 0.8238. Early London dipped to 0.8233, matching the monday low and putting in a double bottom, then rebounded to press the 0.8248 asian high, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the open drop. RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR is about 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8248 asian high and 61.8% fib breaks the range and exposes the 0.8252 monday high, then the 0.8260 friday high
Failure at 0.8248 and a slip under the 0.8238 range floor puts the 0.8233 monday low back in play
A break of the 0.8233 monday low opens the 0.8218 friday low, near the 0.8220–0.8227 double-top neckline flagged in the CHF digest
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines or Hormuz/French-yield haven flows could shift this read
07:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.82418
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 intact; early London bounce from range low back to mid-range.
London open saw a rejection of the asian low at 0.8233, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NY rally, and price is back mid-range near 0.8242 on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 51. Asia faded the early Monday push to the 0.8252 asian high as dovish Fed pricing weighed on USD, and offers have capped rallies at the 0.8247 asia cap since.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8218 friday low, just under the 0.8220–0.8227 double-top neckline
M15 close above the 0.8247 asia cap opens the 0.8252 asian high, then the 0.8260 friday high
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines or Hormuz/French yield moves are the main intraday shock risks
07:16 UTC
Sideways, pressing range floor · RSI 37 · price 0.82352
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 with lower highs; London open testing the low.
London open is pressing the Asian low at 0.8233 after Asia printed a string of lower highs beneath the 0.8246 asia ceiling. RSI(14) is near 37 and price sits below both EMAs. CHF is firm as ~84% Fed October hold pricing weighs on USD, and Friday's low at 0.8218 lines up with the 0.8220–0.8227 double-top neckline flagged in the digest.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82465, 0.82523
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8233 asian low breaks Monday's range and exposes the 0.8218 friday low
Recovery above the 0.8246 asia ceiling and the lower-highs line negates the downside pressure; the 0.8252 session high is the next cap
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines or AI/Middle East risk-off could still shift this read
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252; price sits at the floor into London open after lower highs through late Asia.
London open finds USD/CHF pressing the 0.8233 Asian low, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 rally. Asia was capped below the 0.8248 range top, and the pair now trades under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37 as CHF holds last week's firmer tone.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82523
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.8218 friday low, near the 0.8220s neckline flagged in the CHF digest.
A recovery back above the 0.8248 range top restores the Asian range and puts the 0.8252 asian high back in view.
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h. Unscheduled Fed comments, US yields or Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read.
06:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.82438
Asian range 0.8234–0.8248, higher lows pressing the session high.
The Sunday open spike to 0.8252 faded to the 0.8234 asian low. Since 02:00 UTC higher lows have squeezed price under the 0.8248 session high going into London open, with ATR(14) under 4 pips. Friday's NY low at 0.8218 sits just under the 0.8220s double-top neckline flagged in the CHF digest, and that drop has not been revisited.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8248 session high at London open puts the 0.8252 open spike and the 0.8260 friday high in play
A close below the higher lows trendline near 0.8241 returns focus to the 0.8234 asian low
A close below the 0.8218 friday low would mark a break of the double-top neckline
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h, so Fed commentary and US yield moves are the main event risk
06:31 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 52 · price 0.82451
Higher lows under a flat 0.8248 asian high.
Late Asia session, with London open due inside the hour. USD/CHF is coiling in a 0.8239–0.8248 band, and higher lows since 02:00 UTC are pressing the asian high. Asian dips held the 50–61.8% fib of Friday's NY rally from the 0.8218 fri low to 0.8260, at 0.8239 and 0.8234. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is about 3.6 pips, with a soft, directionless USD offering no catalyst.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
A London close above the 0.8248 asian high opens 0.8252 (Sunday open high) and the 0.8260 fri high
A break of the 0.8239 higher-low trendline returns focus to the 0.8234 asian low and 61.8% fib
A close below the 0.8218 fri low brings the 0.8220s double-top neckline into play
No scheduled US/Swiss data in the next 8h; unscheduled Fed commentary, US yield moves or Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia session has held a 19-pip range between the asian low at 0.8233 and the asian high at 0.8252. That sits inside Friday's NY swing from the 0.8218 friday low to the 0.8260 friday high, and price is parked near the 38.2% retracement of that move. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips, with no weekend news to drive direction ahead of London open.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
London open break of the asian high at 0.8252 or asian low at 0.8233 ends the range read
A move through 0.8252 brings the friday high at 0.8260 back into play
Failure to hold the asian low exposes the friday low at 0.8218, close to the 0.8227/0.8220 double-top neckline
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; US yields and geopolitical headlines are the live drivers
Tight Asian range 0.8234–0.8248 inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 NY swing.
The Sunday open high at 0.8252 faded quickly, and the session low at 0.8233 held near the 61.8% retracement of Friday's NY swing from 0.8218 to 0.8260. Since then the Asia session has compressed into a 0.8234–0.8248 range, with buyers stepping in around the 0.8239 asia lows twice late in the session. RSI(14) sits flat near 51 and ATR is about 3.5 pips heading into London open, with no fresh CHF news since Friday's haven-driven swing.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8248 asian high brings the 0.8252 open high and 0.8260 friday high into play
Failure to hold the 0.8233 session low exposes the 0.8218 friday low, near the 0.8220/0.8227 double-top neckline flagged in the digest
London open typically expands range; a 3.5-pip ATR is unusually compressed for this pair
No scheduled data in the next 8h; unscheduled Fed commentary, US yield moves or Middle East headlines could shift the read
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252, compressing under intraday high.
Late Asia session: price sits mid-range at 0.8244, inside the 0.8233 asian low to 0.8252 asian high band. That band is nested within Friday's 0.8218 friday low to 0.8260 friday high swing, with a series of higher lows off the 0.8236 intraday low pressing into the 0.8247 intraday high ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 55 and EMAs flat at price; the digest shows USD flat to soft with no fresh weekend news.
Support: 0.8236, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8247 intraday high puts the 0.8252 asian high in play, with the 0.8260 friday high above
Loss of the higher lows line and the 0.8236 intraday low reopens the 0.8233 asian low
Friday low at 0.8218 sits just under the 0.8220s double-top neckline flagged in the digest; a break there shifts the structural read
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h, so US yields and geopolitical headlines remain the likely catalysts at London open
05:31 UTC
Flat, tight late-Asia range · RSI 58 · price 0.82437
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF is compressing between 0.8239 and the 0.8247 range top. The weekend open spike to the 0.8252 monday high faded, and the CHF digest flags no fresh news. Dips have held the fib 50% retrace of Friday's NY rally off 0.8218, and the 0.8233 monday low sat on the 61.8%. RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, a compressed read ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
London open break of the 0.8247 range top exposes the 0.8252 monday high, then the 0.8260 friday high
M15 close below the 0.8233 monday low breaks the 61.8% hold and puts the 0.8218 friday low in view, close to the 0.8220s double-top neckline
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; unscheduled Fed commentary or a US yield move could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Flat, sideways drift in Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.82423
Tight Asian range inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 NY swing.
Late Asia session: an early open spike to 0.8252 faded, and USD/CHF has since held a 14-pip Asian range between the asian low at 0.8234 and the asian high at 0.8248. Price sits near the 38–50% retrace of Friday's NY rally from 0.8218 to 0.8260, with RSI(14) at 50 and flat EMAs. There is no fresh weekend driver per the CHF digest, and no setup is in play.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
London open break of the asian high at 0.8248 or the asian low at 0.8234 sets the session direction
Failure to hold 0.8234 exposes the friday low at 0.8218, which aligns with the 0.8220s neckline flagged in the digest
A close above the open spike at 0.8252 opens the fri ny high at 0.8260
No scheduled US/Swiss data in the next 8h; US yield moves or Middle East headlines could shift the read
Asian range 0.8234–0.8248 inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 swing.
Monday's opening spike to 0.8252 faded fast. Asia has held a tight 0.8234–0.8248 range since, with price mid-range at 0.8243, RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips. The asian low lines up with the 61.8% retrace of Friday's NY swing from 0.8218 to 0.8260; a soft USD tone has not produced a directional move.
Support: 0.82335, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 asian low exposes the 0.8218 friday low and the 0.8220s neckline cited in the digest
Break and hold above the 0.8248 asian high opens the 0.8260 friday high
London open is the first test of the Asian range; no scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h, so US yields and geopolitical headlines are the likely drivers
04:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.82421
Tight Asian range inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 swing.
Late Asia session, with price pinned mid-range at 0.8242 between the 0.8233 Asian low and the 0.8248 range top. Monday dips held near the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 0.8218 low to 0.8260 high rally, while the 0.8252 Asian high capped the Sunday open. USD is soft on Fed-pause pricing, but there has been no fresh CHF driver and ATR is compressed near 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.82335, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 Asian low exposes the 0.8218 Friday low and the 0.8220s neckline
M15 close above the 0.8252 Asian high breaks the range and puts the 0.8260 Friday high back in play
London open could expand the compressed Asian range
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed commentary, US yields and Middle East headlines are the unscheduled risk
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 after weekend gap up faded.
The weekend gap to 0.8252 was sold into the Asian low at 0.8233, which sits near the 61.8% of Friday's swing fib. Price is mid-range at 0.8242 with RSI(14) near 46 and EMAs flat overhead, so no setup is in play. Friday's NY dip to 0.8218 below the 0.8227 double-top neckline was reclaimed, leaving that trigger unconfirmed as yields and soft USD tone drive CHF.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low exposes the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 friday low
Close above the 0.8252 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8260 friday high
London open is likely to resolve the Asian range
Unscheduled Fed commentary or a US yield move could materially shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Tight Asian range 0.8233–0.8248 with shallow higher lows.
The Asia session is compressing in a 0.8233–0.8248 range after Monday's spike to the open high at 0.8252 faded. Price is holding around the 38.2% retracement of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 rally. Higher lows near the 50% fib keep the asian low above the 61.8% level at 0.8234. CHF haven demand has stalled while USD stays soft on Fed-pause pricing, and the roughly 4-pip ATR reflects thin pre-London trade.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.8248 exposes the open high at 0.8252 and the friday high at 0.8260 into London open
Close below the asian low at 0.8233 breaks the higher lows and the 61.8% fib, putting the friday low at 0.8218 back in view
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; US yield moves or risk-off headlines are the main triggers for a range break
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 with a short chain of higher lows.
Monday's Asian session is holding a 0.8233–0.8252 range. The asian low sits on the 61.8% retrace of Friday's NY rebound from the 0.8218 friday low to the 0.8260 friday high, and a higher low at 0.8236 has since formed. Price is at 0.8245 in the upper half, with the USD subdued on Fed-pause pricing and the CHF still holding last week's bounce.
Support: 0.82358, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.8252 breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.8260 friday high in play
Loss of the higher low at 0.8236 and the asian low at 0.8233 voids the 61.8% retrace hold and exposes the 0.8218 friday low near the 0.8227 neckline
London open is the first test of the Asian range; unscheduled Fed or Treasury-yield headlines could shift this read
02:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 0.82432
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252, price mid-range.
Mid-Asia session, USD/CHF is chopping inside a 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range after the early pop to the asian high faded. Demand held the asian low at the 61.8% of Friday's NY swing, while 0.8248 has capped as the range top. The tone stays soft for USD as Fed pause odds near 84% weigh, with EMAs flat around price.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8248 range top reopens the asian high at 0.8252, then the friday high at 0.8260
Loss of the 0.8233 asian low and the 61.8% of Friday's NY swing exposes the friday low at 0.8218
London open typically breaks the Asian range; an ATR near 4 pips means a break carries little momentum so far
Hormuz headlines or a US yield move could override the range
Monday Asia popped to the 0.8252 asian high and was rejected. Price has since chopped between 0.8233 and 0.8248, a lower high, with the asian low sitting on the 61.8% fib of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 NY rebound. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 43, and the soft-USD Fed-pause tone is keeping the upside capped so far.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.8218 friday low
Close above the 0.8252 asian high ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8260 friday high back in play
London open in ~4.5h is the likely trigger to resolve the Asian range
Unscheduled Fed commentary or Hormuz headlines could override this range read
02:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum soft · RSI 43 · price 0.82393
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 swing.
Asia session is rotating mid-range after the weekend-open spike to the 0.8252 Asian high faded. The 0.8233 Asian low sits on the 61.8% retrace of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 rally (fri rally fib), and price is parked near the 50% at 0.8239. Friday low at 0.8218 was a false break of the 0.8227 neckline, with Hormuz/Iran weekend headlines the live driver and no data scheduled.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low exposes the 0.8227 neckline and 0.8218 friday low
Close above the 0.8252 asian high reopens the 0.8260 friday high
Hormuz/Iran shipping headlines into London open could break the Asian range
Sustained trade below the 0.8227 neckline turns Friday's false break into a confirmed break
01:46 UTC
Sideways after Friday's V-recovery · RSI 53 · price 0.82417
Early Asia range 0.8233–0.8252 inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 swing, lower highs.
The Monday open popped to an Asia high at 0.8252 on weekend Hormuz/Iran haven headlines. It was rejected inside an hour, and price is now rotating in a tight 0.8233–0.8252 Asian range. That range sits in the middle of the Friday rally fib, from the 0.8218 Friday low to the 0.8260 Friday high, with the open spike printing a lower high below Friday's peak.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asia low exposes the 0.8227 neckline and then the 0.8218 friday low
Break of the 0.8252 asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8260 friday high
Fresh Hormuz/Iran or oil headlines into the London open could break the Asian range
Holding the 38.2–50% zone of the friday rally fib (0.8244–0.8239) keeps the range read intact
Asia range 0.8233–0.8252, lower highs above twin lows.
Monday's Asia session is ranging between the 0.8233 asia low and the 0.8252 asia high. That range sits inside Friday's 0.8218 friday low to 0.8260 friday high span. Buyers stepped in twice near 0.8233, while lower highs since the open cap the upside, and the weekend Hormuz haven-USD impulse has not produced follow-through.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asia low exposes the 0.8218 friday low, near the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the CHF digest
Close above the 0.8252 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8260 friday high into view
London open in ~6h is likely to resolve the Asian range
Unscheduled Hormuz/Iran or oil headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8233–0.8252 inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 swing.
The Monday Asia open lifted to the 0.8252 asian high on weekend Hormuz haven headlines, but the move was rejected and fell back to the 0.8233 asian low, close to the 61.8% retrace of Friday's rally from 0.8218. Price is now mid-range at 0.8243, flat on EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low exposes the friday low at 0.8218 and the 0.8227 neckline
Close above the 0.8252 asian high reopens the friday high at 0.8260
Oil and Hormuz shipping headlines into London open could break the Asian range
Monday's Asia session opened with a brief haven-USD pop to the asia high at 0.8252 on weekend Hormuz headlines, then faded. The asia low at 0.8233 held twice, in line with the 61.8% fib of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 rally. Price is now flat around EMA20/50 mid-range, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asia low reopens the friday low at 0.8218 and the 0.8227 neckline
Close above the 0.8252 asia high breaks the Asian range and exposes the friday high at 0.8260
Oil and Hormuz headlines into the London open could materially shift this read
Early Asia range 0.8233–0.8252, higher low forming.
Early Asia: the Sunday-open pop to the 0.8252 Asian high on Hormuz haven headlines faded. Price then based twice at the 0.8234 Asian low, close to the 61.8% retrace of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 recovery. Friday's NY flush below the 0.8227 neckline to the 0.8218 friday low reversed quickly, so that break has so far proved false. Price is back above both EMAs at 0.8245, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 asian low voids the double bottom and exposes the 0.8218 friday low
Close above the 0.8252 asian high opens the 0.8260 friday high
Further Hormuz/Iran or oil headlines during Asia session could shift this read quickly
Lower highs since Monday open, pressing the Monday low.
Monday's Asia session opened without a meaningful gap. An early pop to the 0.8252 open high was rejected, a lower high followed at 0.8247, and price is back testing the 0.8233 Monday low. That low sits near the 61.8% retracement of Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 NY rebound. Weekend Hormuz headlines have not produced a sustained USD bid so far, and price trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 Monday low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.8218 Friday low, near the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the digest
Reclaim of the 0.8247 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 0.8252 open high and 0.8260 NY high back in play
Hormuz vessel incidents and the oil reaction through the Asia session could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday downside drift, lower highs since the open · RSI 44 · price 0.82355
Open-high rejection; testing the open low and 61.8% fib inside Friday's 0.8218–0.8260 range.
Early Asia session. The Monday open pop to the 0.8252 open high was rejected, and a lower high at 0.8247 followed. Price is back on the 0.8233 open low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of Friday's NY rebound from the 0.8218 friday low to the 0.8260 friday high. The weekend Hormuz headlines produced no gap, RSI(14) is near 44 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 open low exposes the 0.8218 friday low, with the digest's 0.8227 double-top neckline in between
Close above the 0.8247 lower high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 0.8252 open high and 0.8260 friday high
Hormuz vessel incidents and the oil reaction during Asia hours could abruptly shift this read; no scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h
Lower highs off the 0.8252 Asian high, pressing the Asian low.
The Monday open saw no gap. An early pop to the 0.8252 Asian high was rejected, and price is now back testing the 0.8233 Asian low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of Friday's NY rebound from 0.8218 to 0.8260. Lower highs at 0.8252 and 0.8247 frame the early Asia session, with price below both EMAs and the 0.8227 neckline flagged in the macro digest just underneath.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8227, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.82523, 0.82596
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8233 asian low exposes the 0.8227 neckline and the 0.8218 friday low
Close above the 0.8247 lower high breaks the Asian down-sequence and reopens the 0.8252 asian high / 0.8260 friday high
Hormuz shipping headlines and oil moves during Asia could shift haven demand for CHF
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; unscheduled Fed or geopolitical headlines are the main risk