USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Range after Thu–Fri decline, lows firming · RSI 56 · price 0.82569
0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday; higher low at 0.8222, lower high at 0.8263.
USD/CHF has held a 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday's NY-session low, which ended the Thursday–Friday drop from 0.8324 as US yields fell. Monday's yield-led bounce from the weekly open stalled at the monday high of 0.8270, the 50% retracement of that drop. Tuesday's London slide on oil-driven USD softness held at 0.8222, just above the friday low, and the NY-session rebound to the tuesday high of 0.8263 printed a lower high near the 38.2% level, leaving a potential double bottom beneath a lower-highs line. Price sits just above the ema20 near 0.8250, with RSI(14) back around 56.
Support: 0.8250, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high would complete the double bottom and break the range top, bringing the 0.8300 round number into view
Rejection at the lower-highs line near the 0.8263 tuesday high keeps the range compressing above the ema20
Failure to hold the 0.8222 tuesday low and the 0.8218 friday low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the decline from 0.8324
US-Iran headlines via oil and the US 10y near 5.12% are the main drivers; Thursday's 12:30 UTC jobless claims could shift this read
22:02 UTC
Sideways after last week's decline, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 0.82482
Range 0.8222–0.8270 since Friday, lower highs on a flat floor.
Monday's NY session rally from the 0.8239 weekly open stalled at a 0.8270 week high, below the 38.2% fib of the 0.8338–0.8218 decline. Tuesday gave it back as USD eased on US-Iran deal hopes, softer yields and weak housing data. The dip into the London-NY transition held at a 0.8222 week low, just above Friday's 0.8218 friday low, and rebounded to a 0.8263 NY high. Price now sits flat at EMA(20) near 0.8250 with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) compressing below 10 pips, leaving a lower-highs line pressing on a flat range floor.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 week low and the 0.8218 friday low breaks the range floor and resumes last week's decline
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high clears the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib, opening the 50% retracement near 0.8278
Holding back below the 0.8263 NY high keeps price pinned between the ema20 and the 0.8239 weekly open
US-Iran headlines and the US 10y near 5.12% are the main driver; Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled risk
21:03 UTC
Range after impulsive decline, momentum soft · RSI 43 · price 0.82452
0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday; lower high Tuesday.
Thursday's slide from 0.8350 to Friday's 0.8218 week low has given way to a 0.8218–0.8270 range. The range top sits on the 38.2% fib of that drop and capped Monday and early Tuesday as US yields eased on US-Iran deal hopes. Tuesday's NY dip to 0.8222 on the weak US housing data reversed, but the rebound stalled at the 0.8263 NY high, leaving a lower high. Price is back under EMA(20) near 0.8250 and holding just above the 0.8239 weekly open, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low breaks the range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above 0.8263 NY high and the 0.8270 range top / 38.2% fib invalidates the range read
Loss of the 0.8239 weekly open puts the twin Friday/Tuesday lows back in focus
US-Iran deal headlines and the US 10y yield around 5.12% could materially shift this read
0.8218–0.8270 range after Thu–Fri selloff, lower high Tuesday.
USD/CHF fell from Thursday's 0.8350 Asia-session high to Friday's 0.8218 NY low, and since the weekly open at 0.8239 it has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range, with Monday's NY bounce stalling at the week high near the 38.2% retracement of the Thu–Fri selloff. Tuesday's dip held 0.8222 in the first hour of NY, just above the Friday low, as weak US housing data and Iran-deal hopes pulled yields lower. The rejection there snapped back to 0.8263, a Tuesday high below Monday's, so lower highs are in place. Price sits marginally below EMA(20) near 0.8250 with RSI(14) around 45, mid-range.
Support: 0.82394, 0.82223, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.82704
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 friday low breaks the range floor and resumes the downtrend from 0.8350
Close above the 0.8270 week high clears the lower highs line and the 38.2% fib of the selloff
Holding above the 0.8239 weekly open keeps price in the upper half of the range around ema20
Thursday's US jobless claims and Friday's PMIs could reprice Fed hike odds and US yields, the main driver of this pair
Iran-deal confirmation or collapse could move oil and US yields ahead of that data
19:02 UTC
Range after downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.82476
Lower highs from 0.8316; 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday.
USDCHF slid from 0.8350 to the 0.8218 friday low in Friday's NY session as yields dropped, and has ranged between that floor and the 0.8270 range top since the 0.8239 weekly open. The range top sits on the 50% retracement of the thu-fri decline. Tuesday's dip to the 0.8222 tue low around the London-NY transition met demand despite soft US housing data. The NY rebound stalled at the 0.8263 tue ny high, and price has slipped back under ema20 near 0.8250 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 friday low breaks the range floor and extends the thu-fri decline
H1 close above the 0.8270 range top clears the 50% retracement of the thu-fri decline
Reclaiming ema20 and the 0.8263 tue ny high would put the range top back in focus; failure keeps the weekly open and tue low exposed
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, then Friday PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, could materially shift this read alongside the 10y yield near 5.12%
USD/CHF has ranged 0.8218–0.8270 since Monday's open. That follows the Thursday–Friday slide of roughly 135 pips from 0.8353, and Monday's high stalled almost exactly at the 38.2% retracement of that move. Tuesday's NY session dip to the 0.8222 Tue low came on soft US housing data and US-Iran deal headlines. Demand stepped in above Friday's week low and the dip reversed quickly, leaving a tentative double bottom. Price now sits on flat EMA(20) and EMA(50), both near 0.8250, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and the lower-highs line from Thursday still overhead.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 week low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower-low, resuming the downtrend
Acceptance above the 0.8263 Tue NY high and the 0.8270 Monday high (38.2% fib) clears the lower-highs line and opens the 0.8300 round number
US-Iran deal confirmation or denial is live headline risk via oil and yields
Thu US jobless claims and Fri PMIs / UoM inflation expectations could break the range
17:03 UTC
Range after the selloff, short-term rebound · RSI 57 · price 0.82613
0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday; twin lows, lower highs still intact.
USD/CHF has ranged between 0.8218 and 0.8270 since Friday's London low, after the yield-driven selloff from Wednesday's 0.8360s. Tuesday's slide on Fed-pause bets and haven demand stalled at 0.8222, forming twin lows with Friday. The rebound into the NY session, which came despite the soft US housing data, lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.8252, with RSI(14) recovering to about 57. The Monday high at 0.8270 sits near the 50% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop and on the lower-highs line, and it remains the range cap.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8222 twin lows breaks the range floor and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.8270 Monday high clears the lower-highs line and completes the twin-lows base, exposing the 0.8300 round number
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.8252 returns price to the lower half of the range
Thu jobless claims and Fri S&P Global PMIs could reprice December-hike odds ahead of next week's FOMC
16:02 UTC
Sideways after mid-week slide, NY rebound · RSI 54 · price 0.82579
0.8222–0.8270 range capped by a descending trendline.
USD/CHF has held a 0.8222–0.8270 range since Friday, after the mid-week slide from 0.8384. Monday's NY push stalled at the 0.8270 monday high, and Tuesday's London-to-NY drift retested Friday's 0.8218 swing low as the dollar eased on Fed-pause expectations and soft US housing data. That dip held at 0.8222, and the NY rebound has lifted price back above the ema20 (0.8251) and the week open (0.8239), roughly 38% back up the Thursday-Friday fib leg. It is now pressing the descending trendline from Thursday's 0.8316 high near 0.8260, with RSI(14) at 54 in mid-range.
Support: 0.8251, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high clears both the trendline and the range top, opening the 0.8300 round number
A second failure to hold the 0.8222 swing low would confirm a lower-low and break the base built on Friday and Tuesday
Slip back below the ema20 and week open (0.8251/0.8239) would return price to the lower half of the range
US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC), then S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (Fri) could materially shift this read
USD/CHF has held a 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday's NY low, after a 173-pip slide from Wednesday's 0.8391 high as dovish Fed comments pulled yields lower. Tuesday's fade on the soft US housing data stalled at 0.8222, just above Friday's 0.8218, forming a potential double bottom at the range floor. The NY-session rebound has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.8250 and into EMA(50) and the 23.6% fib at 0.8259, with the Monday high at 0.8270 still the range top and RSI(14) back near 55 from the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8250, 0.8239, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8259, 0.8270, 0.8284
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high breaks the range top and confirms the double bottom, putting the 38.2% fib at 0.8284 in play
Rejection at the 23.6% fib near 0.8259 and a slip back below ema20 at 0.8250 keeps the range intact
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.8239 returns focus to the range floor; an H1 close below 0.8218 resumes the post-0.8391 downtrend
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and Fri S&P Global PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395, momentum stalling above the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.82405
Range 0.8218–0.8270 since Friday; Tuesday lower highs pressing the floor.
The Wednesday–Friday selloff from 0.8395 ran to the friday low at 0.8218 as Fed-pause pricing and softer yields weighed on USD. Monday's yield-driven bounce stalled at the monday high of 0.8270, about a third of the selloff, and Tuesday has printed lower highs back below the ema20 near 0.8248. The dip into the NY open around the Housing Starts miss found a rejection at the tuesday low of 0.8222, leaving the range floor intact with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 0.8218 breaks the range floor and confirms the double-top read from 0.8390
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.8248 and then the monday high at 0.8270 would break Tuesday's lower highs and reopen 0.8300, the round number
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US 10y yield direction around 5.13% has been driving each leg of this range
Lower highs from 0.8395; testing the 0.8218–0.8222 lows.
Wednesday's 0.8395 top has given way to a sequence of lower highs at 0.8316 (thu high), 0.8270 (monday high) and 0.8259, all capped under the lower-high trendline. Monday's NY bounce, driven by the rise in yields, unwound through London today as the dollar eased on Fed-pause bets, and the Housing Starts miss pushed price to a 0.8222 tuesday low before a rejection held it above the 0.8218 friday low. Price sits below the ema20 near 0.8250 with RSI(14) in the low 30s, still above oversold, as the lows are tested.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8218 friday low confirms the lower-low and exposes the 0.8200 round number
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.8250 and the lower-high trendline would ease the downtrend read; 0.8270 monday high is the next cap
Fib 38.2% of the 0.8395–0.8218 drop sits near 0.8286, above the monday high
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; Thursday claims and Friday PMIs are the larger USD risks this week
Lower high at 0.8270 below the 38.2% retrace; Tuesday printing lower highs.
The dominant move in the window is the 0.8395–0.8218 slide. It ran from Wednesday's NY session through Friday's London session as dovish Fed commentary and easing yields unwound the post-CPI spike. Monday's NY-session bounce on the US 10y rebound stalled at the 0.8270 week high, short of the 38.2% retrace near 0.8286. Tuesday's London session has since printed lower highs back below EMA(20) at 0.8249, with RSI(14) near 39 and price testing the weekly open at 0.8239, Monday's low at 0.8233 and the Friday low at 0.8218 beneath.
Support: 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.82394, 0.8249, 0.82704
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday low at 0.8233 confirms a lower-low and puts the Friday low at 0.8218 back in play
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8249 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise Tuesday's fade; the 0.8270 week high caps above that
Rejection below the weekly open at 0.8239 keeps the corrective bounce read intact
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today and Friday's S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8270 after the 0.8395→0.8218 drop; price back toward the 0.8233–0.8243 base.
Wednesday's 0.8395 spike on hot US data fully unwound into Friday's NY-session low at 0.8218, as dovish Fed commentary and a pullback in Treasury yields weighed on the dollar. Monday's yield-led bounce stalled at 0.8270, a lower high that reached only about 29% of the 0.8395-0.8218 drop. Since then, Asia and London have faded price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50), both near 0.8252. Price is now sitting just above the weekly open at 0.8239, RSI(14) has slipped to around 41, and the lower-highs sequence since Thursday remains intact.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8233 monday low exposes the 0.8218 friday low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8252 ema20 and a close above the 0.8270 monday high would bring the 38.2% retracement at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 psych level into view
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today and Friday's S&P Global PMIs could shift the read via Fed-hike pricing
US 10y yield around 5.13% remains the main swing factor for this pair
Post-selloff range 0.8233–0.8270 with lower highs since Monday.
Wednesday's NY spike to 0.8395 on hot US inflation data fully reversed into Friday's low at 0.8218 as Treasury yields pulled back and the AI-led equity selloff weighed on USD. Monday's recovery stalled at the week high of 0.8270 during NY hours after the 10y rebound to 5.13%, and that level saw a second rejection at Tuesday's open. Asia and London trade today have faded price back below the ema20 to the day low near 0.8243, where the rising support line from Friday's low and Monday's low is being tested, with RSI(14) sliding to about 41.
Support: 0.8243, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8270, 0.8286
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8233 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8218 friday low
Holding the day low and rising support line keeps the 0.8233–0.8270 consolidation intact
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower highs line, then the 0.8270 week high, opens the fib 38.2 at 0.8286
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC and the US 10y around 5.13% could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395; 0.8218–0.8270 range since Friday.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 fully reversed as dovish Fed comments and AI-led risk-off pulled yields lower, carving a ~177-pip slide to the 0.8218 week low in Friday's NY session. Monday's NY bounce stalled at the 0.8270 monday high, below the 38.2% fib of the drop, and Asia into London today has faded back under ema20 toward the 0.8239 weekly open. RSI(14) near 40 has not reached oversold on this retest, and the lower-highs sequence from the peak remains intact.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8233 monday low and 0.8218 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming ema20 and clearing the 0.8270 monday high would break the lower-highs line and open the 38.2% fib near 0.8286, with the 0.8300 round number above
Hold of the 0.8239 weekly open keeps the 0.8218–0.8270 range read intact
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today, and Friday's PMIs, could materially shift this read
0.8245–0.8270 range above Friday low, capped twice at 0.8270.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 was fully unwound by Friday's NY-session low at 0.8218 as falling front-end yields and AI-led risk aversion weighed on the dollar. Since then H1 has carved a range of higher lows off the Friday low, with a double rejection at the 0.8270 prior high, first on Monday's NY-session yield bounce and again in Asia today, just above the 23.6% fib of the Wed–Fri decline. Price is pinned to EMA(20) near 0.8256, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR compressing to about 8 pips.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 prior high breaks the double rejection and exposes the 38.2% fib of the decline near 0.8286, then the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8245 day low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.8239 week open and the 0.8218 Friday low back in play
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC today and Friday's S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read via front-end yields
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 in NY hours gave way to a roughly 177-pip sell-off into Friday's NY session low at 0.8218 as front-end US yields slid on Fed October-hold pricing. Since the 0.8239 weekly open, price has carved higher lows. Monday's NY push stalled at the 0.8270 monday high, short of the 38.2% fib near 0.8286. Tuesday's Asia session faded the move to a 0.8245 asia low, leaving price just under the 0.8255 ema20 and below EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8245 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.8233 monday low and 0.8218 friday low back in play
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Holding back under the 0.8255 ema20 keeps the Wed–Fri sell-off structure intact
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC and US 10y yields near 5.13% could shift this read; Friday's PMIs are the larger test
0.8233–0.8270 weekly range after last week's 177-pip decline from 0.8395.
Monday's London-NY recovery from the 0.8233 weekly low stalled at the 0.8270 week high, short of the 38.2% fib of last week's 0.8395–0.8218 decline, and a second test early in the Asia session was rejected. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.8255 and broken the Monday rising lows line, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s. The fade tracks a softer USD tone as AI-equity jitters cap Fed-hike pricing, after the 10y rebound to 5.13% had supported Monday's bounce.
Support: 0.82394, 0.82331, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.82704, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8233 weekly low, after the 0.8239 weekly open gives way, exposes Friday's 0.8218 swing low
Close back above the 0.8270 week high reopens the 38.2% fib near 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Regaining EMA(20) at 0.8255 would neutralise the broken Monday rising lows line
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today, then Friday's PMIs, could shift US yields and this read
Range 0.8233–0.8270 after the Wed–Fri drop, upper bound capped three times.
USD/CHF has held a tight range between the 0.8233 Monday low and 0.8270 since the week open. It follows the Wed–Fri drop from 0.8395 to the 0.8218 Friday low, when lower US front-end yields and AI-led equity jitters weighed on the dollar despite hot PPI and retail sales. Monday's NY-session rebound ran into a cap at the Monday high near 0.8270 three times, short of the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.8286. Asia has since faded back below EMA(20) at 0.8257, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.8270, 0.8286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high breaks the range cap and brings the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 into view
Failure to hold the 0.8233 Monday low exposes the 0.8218 Friday low and the 0.8200 psych level
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.8257 would restore the pullback-within-range read
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30Z today and Friday's S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read
Post-impulse range 0.8233–0.8270 with higher lows off the 0.8218 week low.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 in NY hours was fully unwound by Friday's 0.8218 week low as front-end US yields dropped on equity jitters. Since then lows have stepped higher, and Monday's London-NY push on the 10y yield rebound tagged the monday high at 0.8270, just above the 23.6% fib of the decline, before stalling. Asia has slipped back under the ema20 near 0.8259 with RSI(14) flat around 50, leaving a tight corrective range inside the week's larger downtrend.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8233, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8259, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8242 higher low breaks the sequence of rising lows since Friday
Loss of the 0.8233 monday low exposes the 0.8218 week low and a resumption of lower lows
Close back above the ema20 and the 0.8270 monday high clears the 23.6% fib and opens the 38.2% near 0.8286, then the 0.8300 round number
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z today and the 10y yield around 5.13% could shift this read; Friday's PMIs are the larger test
02:02 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395 paused, higher lows since Friday · RSI 55 · price 0.82601
Basing above 0.8218; Monday's higher lows capped at 0.8270.
The slide from Wednesday's post-CPI spike high at 0.8395 ran through Thursday and Friday's London session. It bottomed at the 0.8218 prior wk low in Friday's NY session, briefly undercutting the 0.8227 neckline. Monday built higher lows off the 0.8239 week open, and the NY session lifted the pair to a 0.8270 monday high as the US 10y rebounded to 5.13%. Price now sits on EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement near 0.8260, with RSI(14) near 55 and the 0.8254 asia low just below.
Support: 0.8254, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 monday high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8254 asia low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.8239 week open and 0.8218 prior wk low back in focus
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC and the 10y yield around 5.13% are the near-term drivers of this read
Lower highs from 0.8395; higher lows since Monday, capped at 0.8270.
Wednesday's CPI spike to 0.8395 unwound into Friday's 0.8218 prior low as US yields slid. Monday's recovery has retraced only to the 23.6% fib near 0.8260, with the 10y rebound to 5.13% lifting the pair to a 0.8270 week high during NY hours. Price sits just above ema20 at 0.8258 with RSI(14) near 57 and holds a rising support line of higher lows from Monday's London session, but the week high has capped price through the Asia session.
Support: 0.8258, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 week high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8286 and the 0.8300 round number
A break of the rising support line and ema20 near 0.8258 would stall the Monday recovery
Failure to hold the week open at 0.8239 exposes Friday's prior low at 0.8218 and the 0.8227 neckline
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and the 10y yield versus 5.13% could shift this read; Friday's PMIs are the week's main catalyst
00:03 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395, corrective bounce under way · RSI 57 · price 0.82668
Lower highs since Wednesday's CPI spike; higher lows since Friday's 0.8218 week low.
Wednesday's hot-CPI spike to 0.8395 fully unwound into a Thursday–Friday sequence of lower highs, ending at the 0.8218 week low in Friday's NY session as US yields and AI-linked risk aversion weighed on the dollar. Since the 0.8239 weekly open, Monday higher lows have carried price through EMA(20) near 0.8259 and EMA(50) near 0.8262 to the 0.8270 Monday high, helped by the rebound in the US 10y to 5.13%. RSI(14) at 57 sits mid-range, and price is holding above the 23.6% fib of the 0.8395-0.8218 drop (0.8260) but below the 38.2% at 0.8286, near the 0.8282 prior high.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8239, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8282, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8270 Monday high opens the 0.8282 prior high, 38.2% fib, and 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.8257 pullback low and the Monday higher lows trendline puts the 0.8239 weekly open back in focus
A break below the 0.8218 week low would resume the lower-low sequence from 0.8395
US 10y yield around 5.13% and Tuesday's housing starts/permits could shift this read