The 0.8382/0.8395 double top has resolved lower. Price lost the 0.8228 neckline and has since printed a sequence of lower highs beneath the 0.8270 range cap. The CHF haven bid from the global bond selloff and falling US yields drove the slide to the 0.8192 swing low. The bounce from there stalled at a 0.8243 lower high, a rejection on the neckline retest, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR(14) near 24 pips, expanded versus mid-window.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.8228, 0.8243, 0.8270
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8192 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.8150 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8228 neckline and a break of the 0.8243 lower high would weaken the downtrend read
Acceptance back above the 0.8270 range cap negates the double top follow-through
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45/14:00 UTC, then next week's Fed decision, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8395, testing double-top neckline.
The 0.8382/0.8395 double top has resolved lower. Price has printed a sequence of lower highs at 0.8316 and then the 0.8270 range top, with EMA20 holding below EMA50. Haven demand for CHF amid the global bond selloff drove a break of the 0.8222 neckline to a window low at 0.8192. Price has since snapped back to retest the neckline from just above, with the bounce high at 0.8243 sitting near the 23.6% retracement. ATR(14) has eased to roughly 25 pips from the expansion seen during the slide, so the pair is compressing between the neckline and the range top.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8243, 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8192 window low extends the lower-low sequence and confirms the neckline break
Close above the 0.8243 bounce high and then the 0.8270 range top would neutralise the lower-highs structure
Recovery through the 0.8316 lower high would undermine the double-top read
Fri 13:45 UTC US flash PMIs and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Fed decision next week is the larger event risk for the neckline zone
Double-top neckline break, now retesting from below.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8395 peak. The pair spent most of the week compressed in a 0.8222-0.8270 band before the neckline near 0.8225 gave way. The dip printed a swing low at 0.8192 as USD softened on the housing-led yield slide and CHF drew haven demand. The latest bar has bounced straight back into the underside of the neckline. EMA20 is below EMA50, and price sits under both. ATR(14) is expanding again off the range compression.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8116
Resistance: 0.8225, 0.8270, 0.8293
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.8225 neckline and through the 0.8270 lower high negates the double-top break
Failure to hold the 0.8192 swing low opens the measured pattern tgt near 0.8116
A move back toward the 0.8293 fib 50% would put the descending lower-high trendline in question
Fri US Services/Manufacturing PMIs and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Fed decision next week is the larger event risk for the yield-led move
Lower highs from 0.8395; week-long 0.8218-0.8222 shelf broken.
Twin highs at 0.8382 and 0.8395 gave way to a sharp leg lower. Since then, rallies have been capped at the 0.8270 range cap, while a week of lows held at the 0.8218-0.8222 shelf. The latest bar broke that broken shelf and printed a new low at 0.8192, with ATR(14) expanding from the prior compression. The move tracks a softer USD after Tuesday's housing misses dragged yields lower. Price is trading below both EMAs, and EMA20 is holding under EMA50. The 0.8200 round number is the immediate test.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81915
Resistance: 0.8222, 0.8270, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.8222 broken shelf would mark the break as a false break and return price to the range
Sustained trade below the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8192 new low extends the double-top breakdown
A recovery through the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8270 range cap (near the 38.2% fib) neutralises the breakdown; 0.8300 round number sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims today 12:30 UTC and Friday's PMIs could materially shift this read ahead of next week's FOMC
Lower highs pressing into a flat 0.8218-0.8227 base after a double top.
A double top at 0.8382/0.8395 completed when the pair closed below the 0.8287 neckline, after dovish Fed commentary and lower Treasury yields drove a roughly 1.4% fall from the 0.8395 high. The recovery stalled at the 0.8270 range high, below the 38.2% fib of the drop near 0.8286. Price has since printed lower highs into the 0.8218 swing low, a floor tested three times and in line with the 0.8227 low from early in the window. ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from 40-50 pip bars during the drop, while price holds below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50.
Support: 0.8218, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8287, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8218 swing low breaks the multi-week floor and exposes the 0.8200 round number
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8287 neckline, near the 38.2% fib, would undercut the double top read
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and next week's FOMC are the main catalysts for a resolution of the compression
01:02 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8395, stalling in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 0.82423
Lower highs since the 0.8395 peak; flat floor at 0.8218-0.8222 tested three times.
The 0.8382 and 0.8395 peaks form a double top, and the 1.4% slide from the second high has stalled on a neckline at 0.8218-0.8222 that has held three times this week. Since then price has compressed into a 0.8222-0.8270 range under the lower-high line, with EMA20 below EMA50 and ATR(14) contracting to about 20 pips. Fading Fed-hike bets after the weak housing data keep USD soft, but the neckline has not yet given way.
Support: 0.8222, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8222 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8200 round number
H4 close above the 0.8270 range high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 0.8316 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the decline
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC: a soft print adds pressure on the neckline, a hot print tests the range high