Higher lows off 0.8234 after the post-PMI high, pressing late NY high in thin trade.
London broke above the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range, and the US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC extended the day rally to a 0.8260 session high. The pullback held at a 0.8234 swing low near the rally's 50% retracement, and late NY printed rising lows off the 0.8241 rollover low. Price is back at the 0.8253 late NY high in quiet pre-Asia hours, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8246, 0.8241, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8260 session high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Loss of the 0.8246 late base, then the 0.8241 rollover low, breaks the rising lows
Close below the 0.8234 swing low undoes the post-PMI structure
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers are the next USD catalysts after SNB
Higher lows since London; post-NY consolidation 0.8241–0.8253.
The US PMI beat broke the London high near 0.8234 and extended to a 0.8260 session high during NY hours. The pullback held the 0.8234 fib 61.8 of the London–NY leg. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.8241 rollover low and the 0.8253 late NY high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 yearly high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8241 rollover low reopens the 0.8234 fib 61.8, with the 0.8224 pre-PMI low below
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt risks rejection below the yearly high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and remarks from Fed's Williams, Hammack and Paulson are the next USD test
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.82467
Higher lows since the PMI spike; tight Asian range at the 38.2% retrace.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted USD/CHF off the 0.8224 pre-PMI low to a 0.8260 NY high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. The rejection there ran into a 0.8234 swing low before the pair recovered. Early Asia is compressing at 0.8245–0.8251, above the 0.8241 rollover low and on the 38.2% retrace, with ATR under 4 pips and RSI flat near 49.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8253 post-PMI high reopens the 0.8260 NY high and the 0.8263 yearly high
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers are the next USD catalyst
London broke above the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range, and the US PMI beat lifted the pair to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high, where it was rejected. The pullback held at the 0.8234 NY low, near the 50% retracement of the day's rally. Early Asia is now compressing between the 0.8241 rollover low and the 0.8253 late NY high around ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 session high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8241 rollover low reopens the 0.8234 NY low, then the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Williams/Hammack/Paulson remarks on an October hike add event risk
Post-PMI higher low at 0.8234, early-Asia compression 0.8241–0.8253.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted USDCHF from the 0.8224 pmi base to a 0.8260 session high in NY hours. Price then pulled back to a 0.8234 swing low after the 5-year auction. Early Asia is now compressing between the 0.8241 rollover low, which sits at the 50% of the pmi leg fib, and the 0.8253 late NY high, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 late ny high reopens the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 yearly high
Loss of the 0.8241 rollover low (50% of the pmi leg fib) exposes the 0.8234 swing low
Break below the 0.8224 pmi base would erase the post-PMI leg
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC Thu (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read; FX language and inflation forecasts are the swing factors
Post-breakout range 0.8241–0.8253 under session high.
The US flash PMI beat lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8218–0.8234 London range during NY hours. It stalled at a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high, and the rejection held the 0.8234 swing low at the 61.8% fib. Price is now compressing in a 0.8241–0.8253 range early in the Asia session, and the 0.8224 pre-PMI low marks where the breakout started.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 range top exposes the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high
Break below the 0.8241 range floor reopens the 0.8234 swing low; losing that points back to the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC is a second volatility window
Post-PMI range 0.8234–0.8260 above the broken Asian range.
London cleared the Asian range, and the flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC then lifted USDCHF through 0.8250. The session high of 0.8260 sits just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. The 17:00 UTC pullback held the 0.8234 swing low near the 38.2% of the day's rally; price is back at 0.8250 in thin Asia-open trade, pressing the 0.8253 prior high with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8260 session high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Break below the 0.8241 rollover low and 0.8234 swing low undercuts the day's rally structure
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC, press conference 08:00, then Fed's Williams at 08:10 could materially shift this read
Post-PMI range 0.8241–0.8253 above rising support, higher lows intact.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove the PMI leg from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. Rejection there pulled price to the 0.8234 swing low. Since late NY, price has held a 0.8241–0.8253 range near the 50% of that leg, and the early Asia session is pressing the range top.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 range top reopens the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high
Loss of the 0.8241 range low and rising support exposes the 0.8234 swing low, then the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
The US flash PMI beat drove a NY-session breakout from the 0.8224 pmi low to a 0.8260 session high, 3 pips short of the 0.8263 yearly high. Price was rejected there and pulled back to the 0.8234 swing low. The late NY high at 0.8253 then unwound through the 21:00 UTC rollover gap, leaving price near the 50% retracement of the PMI leg, just below EMA20 and with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8241 gap low and then the 0.8234 swing low would put the PMI low at 0.8224 back in view
Recovery above the 0.8253 late ny high reopens the session high at 0.8260 and the 0.8263 yearly high
An M15 close above the 0.8263 yearly high would mark a clean break of the year's range
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, especially via inflation forecasts or FX intervention wording
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu is the next USD-side risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; 0.8234–0.8260 range since the NY rejection.
The blowout US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC extended the London grind from the 0.8198 Asian low. Price reached a 0.8260 session high, where supply capped it just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. The 0.8234 swing low held near the 38.2% of the day's rally and the rising trendline, and price rebuilt to the 0.8253 late NY high before a thin rollover gap left it at 0.8241, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
Rollover low at 0.8241 is a thin-liquidity print; reclaiming 0.8253 late ny high puts the session high back in play
M15 close above the 0.8263 yearly high invalidates the rejection read and exposes 0.8300
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low breaks the rising trendline and turns focus to the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.8234–0.8260 after the NY breakout; lower high at 0.8253.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted USD/CHF out of its London range from the 0.8224 pre-pmi low. The NY session high at 0.8260 then saw rejection just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high, and the pullback held the 0.8234 ny low. Price is now pivoting around the 50% fib near the 0.8241 rollover low in thin trade, with a lower high at 0.8253 (late ny high).
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 ny low breaks the post-PMI range and exposes the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
Close above the 0.8253 late ny high puts the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high back in play
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia; late-NY coil 0.8242–0.8249.
Hot US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC broke London's 0.8234 high, and price extended to a 0.8260 session high before a rejection dropped it to the 0.8234 auction low, right on the rising trendline from the Asian low. Late NY is now coiling between the 0.8242 range floor and the 0.8249 range top, pinned to EMA20 and just under the 0.8263 yearly high, into Thursday's SNB decision.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8249, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8249 range top reopens the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high
Loss of the 0.8242 range floor exposes the 0.8234 auction low and the rising trendline
Break below the 0.8224 pre-pmi low undoes the PMI leg and the intraday HL chain
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC, about 11h out, could materially shift this read
Post-PMI breakout with higher lows, compressing in a tight 0.8242–0.8248 range.
The US flash PMI beat drove a NY session PMI impulse from the 0.8224 pre-PMI low to a 0.8260 session high, stalling just under the 0.8263 yearly high. The 0.8234 pullback low kept the higher lows intact, and price is now compressing between a 0.8242 range floor and a 0.8248 range top after NY close, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.8242, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8242 range floor and the higher lows trendline near 0.8240 exposes the 0.8234 pullback low
Loss of the 0.8234 pullback low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 0.8224 pre-PMI low back in view
Close above the 0.8248 range top reopens the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 yearly high
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC: any shift in FX-intervention language could materially change this read
Hot US flash PMIs drove a NY-session breakout from 0.8237 to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. A pullback then retested the break zone at the 0.8234 NY low. After NY close, price is compressing in a 0.8242 range low to 0.8248 range top band around the 38.2% fib and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 NY low undercuts the retest and exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
Break above the 0.8248 range top reopens the 0.8260 session high, with the 0.8263 yearly high just beyond
Loss of the 0.8242 range low shifts focus to the 61.8% fib near 0.8238
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (f/c 0% hold) could materially shift this read; the inflation forecasts and FX language are the swing factors
HH/HL chain from Asian range, lower high after 0.8260 rejection, late-NY range.
USD/CHF broke above the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range during London, and the US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC extended the post-PMI leg to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 16-month high. Rejection there sent price to a 0.8234 swing low. After London close it is holding a tight 0.8242–0.8248 range, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8248 range top puts the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 16-month high back in play
Break of the 0.8242 range floor exposes the 0.8234 swing low and the rising trendline near 0.8233
Close below the swing low and trendline ends the HH/HL chain and opens the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
PMI-driven higher high at 0.8260 then a corrective lower high; late-NY compression 0.8242–0.8248.
Blowout US PMIs at 13:45 UTC extended the London-NY climb out of the 0.8198–0.8221 Asian range to a 0.8260 session high, where the move met rejection just shy of the 0.8263 16m high. The pullback held at the 0.8234 pullback low, near the 38.2% of the Asia-NY rally fib, and price is now compressing between the 0.8242 range low and the 0.8248 lower high into late NY, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.8242, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82484, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8248 lower high reopens the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8242 range low exposes the 0.8234 pullback low and the rising support line
A break of rising support toward the 0.8224 pre-PMI low retraces most of the NY breakout
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 48 · price 0.8246
Higher lows since Asia; post-PMI high rejected, 0.8234 low holding on rising support.
The 13:45 UTC US PMI beat lifted USD/CHF out of its 0.8224–0.8238 London range to a 0.8260 session high, just short of the 0.8263 16m high. That high was rejected, and a late-NY drop found demand at the 0.8234 ny low on rising support. Price is now back at the 38.2% level of the PMI leg fib near 0.8246, RSI(14) neutral around 48, and hovering just under EMA20 in late NY hours.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8248 bounce high reopens the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8234 ny low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8224 pre-pmi low near the base of the PMI leg fib
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read; inflation-forecast and FX-intervention wording are the swing factors
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thu could move the USD leg
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 47 · price 0.8244
Higher lows since Asia; post-PMI high rejected, now holding above swing low.
The PMI beat pushed USD/CHF out of its London range and above the pre-PMI low at 0.8224. It rallied to a 0.8260 day high, just shy of the 0.8263 16-month high, where it was rejected, and the drop found a swing low at 0.8234 on the rising lows line. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.8248 rebound high, leaving price just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8260 day high and 0.8263 16-month high breaks the rejection read
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low and rising lows line exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
Price stalling below the 0.8248 rebound high keeps the pullback structure in play
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 45 · price 0.8244
Asian range broken higher in London, NY extension to 0.8260 then a deep pullback and lower bounce.
London broke above the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range, and the 13:45 UTC PMI beats extended the move to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 16m high. Rejection there pulled price to the 0.8234 swing low, near the 78.6% fib of the PMI leg. Late NY is holding 0.8244, just below EMA20.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8224, 0.8221
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8224 post-pmi low, then the 0.8221 asian high
Reclaim of the 0.8260 session high puts the 0.8263 16m high back in play
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulled back after session-high rejection · RSI 55 · price 0.82479
HH/HL chain from the Asian lows; NY pullback held above rising lows and is now recovering.
The hot US flash PMIs in early NY hours broke price out of the 0.8224–0.8238 London range and ran it to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 16m high, where it was rejected. The pullback held the ny low at 0.8234, below the 61.8% of the PMI leg and near EMA50, and price has since reclaimed the ema20 at 0.8245. RSI(14) sits at 55 and ATR(14) is about 6.7 pips.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8253 prior high puts the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 16m high back in play
A break below the 0.8234 ny low and the rising lows line near 0.8231 exposes the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
The SNB decision (Thu 07:30 UTC), Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 0.82416
HH/HL from Asia through NY; late-NY rejection prints first lower low.
USD/CHF broke out of the London range on the flash US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC and printed a session high at 0.8260, just shy of the 0.8263 16m high, before a rejection after London close dropped price to a 0.8234 swing low. Price is now holding near the 50% of the PMI leg at 0.8242, capped below the ema20 at 0.8246.
Support: 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low and the rising trendline from the London low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8246 reopens the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 16m high
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC: the inflation forecast and FX-intervention wording could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after late-NY rejection · RSI 42 · price 0.82377
HH/HL chain from Asia through NY; retracement into the PMI breakout zone.
Hot US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC pushed USDCHF out of its London range at 0.8237 and on to a 0.8260 day high, just shy of the 0.8263 16m high, before a late-NY rejection. Price has since slipped back through the 0.8250 breakdown level and is retesting the PMI breakout zone at 0.8237, where the 61.8% fib of the post-PMI leg also sits. The NY low at 0.8234 is just beneath.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8234 NY low exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low and unwinds the PMI breakout
Recovery above the 0.8250 breakdown level reopens the 0.8260 day high and 0.8263 16m high
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London; tight consolidation below session high.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range top near 0.8221 at London open. The US flash PMI beat then extended the move during NY hours to a session high at 0.8260, just under the 0.8263 16-month high. Late NY is consolidating between the 0.8247 swing low and the session high, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the PMI leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
Support: 0.8247, 0.8237, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8263, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8263 16m high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8247 swing low exposes the 0.8237 post-PMI low (61.8% of the PMI leg)
A break below the 0.8224 pre-PMI low would unwind the NY breakout
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the London open break of the Asian range; post-PMI leg extended to a new session high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove a 26-pip leg through the 0.8238 London high. After London close, price stepped up to a 0.8260 session high while holding above the 0.8247 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and the 0.8263 16-month high sits just overhead.
Support: 0.82467, 0.8237, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8263 16-month high clears the last marked resistance ahead of 0.8300
Close below the 0.8247 swing low exposes the 0.8237 post-pmi low at the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib
Loss of the 0.8224 pre-pmi low breaks the rising support and the intraday HL chain
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC: inflation forecast and FX intervention wording could materially shift this read at the London open
The US flash PMI beat at the NY open lifted USDCHF from a 0.8224 swing low to the 0.8253 pmi high. Price then held a 0.8247–0.8253 consolidation (range low 0.8247) and has broken above it after London close. The 0.8237 swing low anchors the NY-session higher-low chain, and the 16m high at 0.8263 sits about 5 pips overhead. RSI(14) is warm at 71 but not stretched.
Support: 0.8253, 0.8247, 0.8237
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8263 16m high would mark a lower-high risk against the breakout; a close above it opens the round number at 0.8300
M15 close back below the 0.8253 pmi high returns price to the consolidation, and loss of the range low at 0.8247 breaks the breakout read
Break of the NY-session trendline and the 0.8237 swing low would end the higher-low chain
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC: a hawkish hold or softer FX-intervention language could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open; post-PMI flat top at 0.8253–0.8254.
USD/CHF cleared the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range early in London and held a higher-low chain through the session. The US flash PMI beat then added ~13 pips to a 0.8254 session high. Price is compressing just under that high late in NY hours, with the 0.8237 pmi pullback low sitting between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the PMI leg.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8224, 0.8221
Resistance: 0.8254, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8237 pmi pullback low exposes the 0.8224 pre-pmi low and the london hl line
Acceptance above the 0.8254 session high brings the 0.8263 16-mth high into play
A move back under the 0.8221 asian high returns price to the Asian range and negates the breakout
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (0% hold priced; inflation forecast and FX wording key) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) is the next USD-side catalyst
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 61 · price 0.82492
HH/HL chain since London open; tight compression 0.8249–0.8254 in late NY.
London broke the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range higher. The US flash PMI beat then lifted price out of the 0.8224–0.8238 band to 0.8253. The post-pmi low at 0.8237 held near the 61.8% retracement, and price is now compressing just under the 0.8254 session high, with RSI(14) near 61 and the rising lows line intact.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.82535, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8254 session high opens the 0.8263 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8237 post-pmi low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
Break of the rising lows trendline would end the intraday HH/HL structure
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC, then US claims and Fed speakers, could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 0.82508
Higher lows since Asia; post-PMI range 0.8237–0.8253.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove the PMI leg from the 0.8224 pre-PMI low out of the London range to a 0.8253 session high. The pullback held the 0.8237 post-PMI low near the 50–61.8% zone. The session high was retested late in NY hours and price is now compressing just beneath it, with RSI(14) near 61 and the 0.8263 16m high overhead.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high opens the path to the 0.8263 16m high
M15 close below the 0.8237 post-PMI low exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low and the rising support line from the Asian lows
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating under session high · RSI 62 · price 0.82508
Higher lows along rising trendline, post-PMI range 0.8237–0.8253.
USD/CHF broke above the Asian range at London open and extended in NY after the US flash PMI beat, tagging a 0.8253 session high twice. The first pullback held at the 0.8237 pmi low, about 56% of the PMI leg on the fib. Price is now pinned just under the session high with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8228, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high opens the 0.8263 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8237 pmi low exposes the rising trendline near 0.8228 and the 0.8224 pre-pmi low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London; PMI leg retested and pressing session high.
London broke out of the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range, and the US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC extended the leg to a 0.8253 session high. The pullback held at the 0.8237 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the PMI move, and price is back at the high in NY hours with RSI(14) at 64. The 16-month high at 0.8263 sits just overhead.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8224, 0.8221
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8263, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 session high puts the 0.8263 16m high in play, with the 0.8300 round number beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8237 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
Loss of the rising trendline and a return inside the Asian range below the 0.8221 asian high negates the breakout
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (hold at 0% expected); inflation-forecast and FX-intervention wording could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; post-PMI range 0.8237–0.8253.
London broke the Asian high (0.8221) and built a higher-low chain along the rising trendline. The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC then spiked the pair to a 0.8253 session high. In NY hours it retraced to a 0.8237 post-PMI low, around 61.8% of the PMI leg, and is now holding mid-range with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.8237, 0.82241, 0.8221
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.8263
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8253 session high puts the 0.8263 16m high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8237 post-PMI low opens the pre-PMI low at 0.8224 and the rising trendline
A drop back below the Asian high at 0.8221 would negate the London breakout
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00): the inflation forecast and FX-intervention wording could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after PMI spike · RSI 58 · price 0.82423
HH/HL chain since London; retest of pre-PMI high.
USD/CHF broke above the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range at London open. It then extended on the 13:45 UTC flash PMI beat to a 0.8253 session high, with USD bid on the hawkish Fed read. The mid-NY pullback to 0.8237 retested the pre-PMI high near the 50% of the post-PMI leg. Price is holding the 38.2% at 0.8242, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 0.8237, 0.8224, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8237 ny pullback low fails the retest and exposes the pre-pmi low at 0.8224
A break of the rising trendline plus the 0.8218 london dip would end the London HH/HL chain
Close above the 0.8253 session high puts the 0.8263 16m high back in play
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC (inflation forecast, FX intervention wording) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian range; post-PMI breakout above London highs.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed USD/CHF out of the London range capped near the 0.8238 prior high. It printed a 0.8253 session high during NY hours, extending the rising lows off the 0.8218 London low and the 0.8224 pre-PMI low. Price sits just under the 0.8263 16m high, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at ~7 pips after the spike.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8224, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8263, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8263 16m high opens the 0.8300 round number
Slip back below the 0.8238 prior high returns price to the pre-PMI range, with the 0.8224 pre-pmi low next
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 0.8218 london low would end the intraday HH/HL chain
Session high at 0.8253 is where the PMI leg fib stalls; watch for rejection or break
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC and US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended after data spike · RSI 65 · price 0.82455
HH/HL chain since London broke the Asian range; PMI spike high at 0.8250.
The US flash PMI beat lifted USD/CHF through the London high to 0.8250 early in the NY session. The post-PMI dip held at 0.8238, the 38.2% fib of the move off the 0.8218 London low. The pre-PMI low at 0.8224 sits on the rising trendline that has carried the higher lows since London cleared the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range.
Support: 0.82385, 0.82241, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.82502, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 38.2% fib at 0.8238 exposes the pre-pmi low at 0.8224 and the rising trendline
Break of the pmi high at 0.8250 puts the 0.8263 16m high in play
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8218 breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read overnight
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout on US data · RSI 61 · price 0.82427
Higher lows through London, prior high broken early NY.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8198–0.8221 Asian range and built a higher-low chain along the London HL line. The US flash PMI beat then broke the 0.8238 prior high, with a spike to the 0.8250 PMI high in the first hour of NY. Price is holding just above the breakout, RSI(14) near 61, and the 0.8263 16m high sits 13 pips overhead.
Support: 0.8238, 0.8224, 0.8218
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8263, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8238 prior high would turn the PMI breakout into a false break
A break of the London HL line and the 0.8224 pre-pmi low ends the higher-low chain; the 0.8218 london low sits below
An M15 close above the 0.8263 16m high opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
The SNB decision on Thu at 07:30 UTC and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejected at high · RSI 48 · price 0.82261
HH/HL chain since London open; sharp pullback off 0.8238.
London broke the Asian high near 0.8220 and built higher highs and higher lows to a 0.8238 session high, fed by the broad USD bid on hawkish Fed talk. The 13:15 UTC bar rejected that high and fell 11 pips into the flash PMIs. That drop put price back under EMA20, at the 61.8% of the London leg fib and just below the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.82233, 0.82206, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.82379, 0.8263
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8223 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the Asian high / London low zone at 0.8220–0.8218
Reclaim of the 0.8238 session high restores the uptrend read, with the 0.8263 16m high the next marker above
Sustained trade under the rising trendline shifts the read toward range
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC sits beyond this session but frames CHF positioning into the close
HH/HL chain since the London break of the Asian range.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8221 and cleared the prior high at 0.8223. NY extended the higher-low chain to a 0.8238 session high as the USD bid held into the flash PMIs. RSI(14) is near 59 and easing off the high, ATR about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8226, 0.8223, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.82379, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8226 higher low breaks the HL chain and puts the rising trendline in play
Loss of the 0.8223 prior high returns price to the Asian range; 0.8218 london low and the 61.8% of the Asian rally sit just below
Close above the 0.8238 session high opens the path toward the 0.8263 16m high
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 57 · price 0.8233
HH/HL chain above the Asian range, just off the session high.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.8221 on hawkish-Fed USD demand. It has since stepped up through a swing low at 0.8218 and a higher low at 0.8223 into a session high of 0.8237 early in NY. Price is holding about 4 pips under that high with RSI(14) near 57, and the 16m high at 0.8263 sits overhead.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8218, 0.8205
Resistance: 0.8237, 0.8263
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8237 session high extends the HH chain toward the 16m high at 0.8263
Failure to hold the 0.8223 higher low breaks the London HL sequence; below the 0.8218 swing low opens a return toward the 0.8205 Asian low
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through London · RSI 62 · price 0.82352
Asian range broken higher at London open; HH/HL chain intact.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8221 on hawkish-Fed USD demand. Price has since stepped up from the 0.8218 London low to the 0.8223 swing low and a fresh session high at 0.8237. RSI(14) near 62 is firm but not stretched, and the higher-low chain holds into the NY open.
Support: 0.82233, 0.82206, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.82372, 0.8255, 0.8263
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8223 swing low breaks the London higher-low line and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the Asian high at 0.8221 turns the London breakout into a false break
Holding above the 0.8237 session high opens the 0.8255 range edge, with the 0.8263 16m high above
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC is next-day event risk for CHF
London broke the Asian range high; price now clearing the London high into the London-NY transition.
The hawkish-Fed dollar bid carried the pair out of the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range at London open. It has since built higher lows at the 0.8218 swing low and the 0.8223 higher low, and is now pressing through the 0.8234 london high at 0.8237 with RSI(14) near 64, stretched but not extreme. The next references are the 0.8255 range top and the 0.8263 recent high flagged in the digest, about 18–26 pips away against ATR of about 5 pips.
Support: 0.82343, 0.82233, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8263
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8234 london high would mark this push as a false break
A loss of the 0.8223 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HH/HL chain
A break below the 0.8218 swing low shifts the London structure to a range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Barr at 14:05 UTC could move this read sharply; a miss hits crowded USD positioning
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT; an upgraded inflation path or firmer FX language is the CHF-positive risk
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 0.82315
Higher highs and higher lows, stalling under session high.
Steady step-up through Asia and London on the hawkish-Fed dollar bid, with higher lows at 0.82183 and 0.82238 holding and price now compressing into the 0.82343 session high. RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 5 pips — orderly drift, not impulse, with the ema20 at ~0.8228 tracking just under price into the pre-NY hours.
Support: 0.8228, 0.82238, 0.82183
Resistance: 0.82343, 0.8240
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC land inside the next few bars — the main near-term driver of this range
A 15m close above the 0.82343 session high extends the channel toward the 0.8240 round number
Loss of the 0.82238 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; below 0.82183 london low the intraday uptrend read is invalidated
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 GMT is the scheduled event risk beyond this session
Higher highs/higher lows off Asian low, now consolidating under session high.
London took USDCHF through the 0.82180 asian high and extended to a session high of 0.82343, with the hawkish-Fed dollar bid still doing the work while the Franc trades as funding into the SNB. Last four hours have been a tight 0.82214–0.82343 consolidation, RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) only ~5 pips.
Support: 0.82214, 0.8218, 0.8205
Resistance: 0.82343, 0.8240
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the next volatility window and can resolve the consolidation either way
M15 close above 0.82343 session high extends the breakout leg toward 0.82400 psych
Loss of the 0.82214 range floor puts the 0.82180 asian high back in play as first retest
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk to this read
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 54 · price 0.8228
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asia low, capped under the session high.
Steady London-session climb off the 0.82048 Asia low into a 0.82343 session high, where the last three pushes have been rejected; price is back mid-range at 0.8228, above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 54. Hawkish Fed repricing keeps the dollar leg intact, and ATR(14) at ~5 pips means moves are small and orderly.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.82048
Resistance: 0.82343, 0.8255
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 0.82343 session high opens the path to the 0.8255 range top
Loss of 0.82183 prior low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 0.82048 asia low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT can reprice the dollar leg within the next bars
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk to this read
Higher lows since Asia, capped in a tight 0.8221–0.8234 range.
Hawkish Fed rhetoric kept the pair bid through Asia and London, lifting it off 0.8189 to a session high of 0.82343, but the last four attempts above 0.8230 have all been rejected. Price now sits mid-range at 0.82241, back under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR only ~5 pips — pre-NY compression.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.82119
Resistance: 0.82343, 0.8230
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC land inside the next bar block and can break this range either way
M15 close above the 0.82343 session high would extend the higher-low sequence
Loss of 0.82183 swing low breaks the rising support line off the london low and ends the higher-low chain
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 58 · price 0.82266
Higher highs and higher lows, shallow pullbacks.
USDCHF has ground higher through the Asia and London sessions, taking out the prior range near 0.82150 and printing a session high at 0.82343 with the dollar firm on the hawkish Fed narrative. Pullbacks have been shallow — the swing low at 0.82214 and london low at 0.82183 both held — and price is closing above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 58, short-term momentum intact but not extended. ATR(14) around 5 pips means small bar ranges; last bar stalled just under the session high.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.8215
Resistance: 0.82343, 0.8240
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC fall inside the next few bars and can reprice this range quickly
M15 close above 0.82343 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.82400 round number
Loss of 0.82214 swing low, then 0.82183 london low, breaks the rising support line and ends the higher-low sequence
Higher highs and higher lows, capped at session high.
USDCHF has ground higher through Asia and into London, extending a chain of higher lows off 0.81888 and printing a session high at 0.82343 before fading back under the 0.82300 psych level — dollar firmness on hawkish Fed rhetoric remains the driver. Advance is orderly rather than impulsive: ATR(14) just 5.2 pips and RSI(14) mid-50s despite the higher highs.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.82055
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.82343
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC land inside the next bar block and can reset the intraday range
Repeated rejection under 0.82300 with a close below 0.82214 session low would break the higher-low chain
Close above 0.82343 session high extends the channel; failure there keeps the 0.82214-0.82343 range intact
Loss of 0.82183 swing low invalidates the ascending support read
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 57 · price 0.82272
Higher highs and higher lows, capped at 0.82324.
Steady London-session grind off 0.81833, with 0.82324 twice rejected in the last two hours and price holding above EMA20 into the NY open. The drift higher tracks the hawkish-Fed dollar tone; RSI(14) near 57 leaves room in either direction, ATR(14) around 5 pips shows compressed intraday ranges.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.82063
Resistance: 0.82324, 0.8240
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82324 session high would extend the higher-high chain toward the 0.82400 round number
Loss of 0.82183 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and invalidates the intraday uptrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC fall inside the next few bars and can reprice the pair quickly
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk to this range
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asian low, holding above the Asian range.
London hours extended the grind off the 0.8196 Asian base, tagging a session high at 0.82324 twice with RSI(14) near 64 — hot but not stretched. Dips into 0.82214 have been bought back each time; the 0.82117 Asian high now sits well below price after the upside break, with USD firm on hawkish Fed pricing.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.82117
Resistance: 0.82324
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.82214 would break the higher-low chain and put 0.82183 swing low back in play
Repeated rejection at the 0.82324 session high keeps price capped inside a tight 11-pip band
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reprice this range within the next few bars
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk to the read
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asia low, capped by a twin high at 0.82324.
Steady grind higher through the London morning has stalled at the 0.82324 session high, touched twice in the last two hours with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR only ~5 pips. Demand held the 0.82183 london low on the Asia-London handover, keeping the rising-low chain intact; CHF remains soft as carry funding into tomorrow's SNB.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.8205
Resistance: 0.82324, 0.8240
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82324 session high negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 0.82214 swing low breaks the rising support line and puts the 0.82050 asia low area back in play
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC land within the next few bars and can reprice this range
SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk for the pair
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into London · RSI 68 · price 0.82306
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8184 low; stalling at 0.8232.
Steady drift higher through the Asian range and into London, with price now pressing the 0.82324 session high for a second time — an unconfirmed double top while the 0.82183 swing low holds. USD remains firm on hawkish Fed rhetoric and CHF is trading as a funding currency; RSI(14) near 67 and ATR(14) at ~5 pips, so ranges are tight.
Support: 0.82214, 0.82183, 0.8198
Resistance: 0.82324, 0.8255
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 0.82324 session high opens the path toward the 0.8255 range top
Loss of the 0.82183 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 0.82214 session low area and 0.8198 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reset this intraday range
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk to the read
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after session high · RSI 55 · price 0.82218
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; consolidating under 0.82323.
London open broke the Asia range and printed a session high at 0.82323 before fading back to 0.8222, with the hawkish Fed repricing keeping USD firm and CHF trading as a funding currency. RSI(14) has cooled to ~55 and price is pinned on EMA20 with ATR(14) just 4.5 pips — the rising-lows sequence off 0.81834 is intact but the last two hours are pure consolidation.
Support: 0.82183, 0.82144, 0.82112
Resistance: 0.82269, 0.82323, 0.8240
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.82269 minor high reopens the 0.82323 session high
Loss of the 0.82183 swing low and then the 0.82144 london low breaks the rising-lows chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next intraday catalyst and can reset this range
Chain of higher lows since the 0.81836 low; session high rejected at 0.82323.
London hours extended the Asian bid, taking USDCHF through the prior NY range and printing a session high at 0.82323 before the wick was rejected; the pair has since settled around 0.82240 with RSI(14) near 62 and price holding above EMA20/EMA50. Dollar firmness on hawkish Fed repricing is the driver, with CHF trading as funding into the SNB. ATR(14) at ~4.3 pips — tight intraday ranges.
Support: 0.82183, 0.82112, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82323, 0.8240
What it said to watch
Reclaim and 15m close above 0.82323 session high would extend the higher-low chain toward the 0.82400 round number
Loss of 0.82183 recent low turns the London leg into a failed breakout; 0.82112 swing low is the next structural reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and SNB decision Thu 07:30 GMT can reset this intraday structure
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low, first rejection at the session high.
London hours extended the grind off the Asian low, tagging a session high at 0.82323 before the rejection dragged price back to a 0.82183 swing low and a 0.82236 close — consistent with the hawkish-Fed dollar bid described in the digest. Structure is still a chain of higher lows above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 61, well short of extremes, and ATR(14) around 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.82183, 0.8215, 0.82048
Resistance: 0.82269, 0.82323
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.82269 prior high re-opens the 0.82323 session high
M15 close below the 0.82183 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; 0.82150 prior pivot next reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can reset this intraday read
SNB assessment tomorrow 07:30 UTC is the larger structural risk for the pair
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 65 · price 0.8225
Higher highs and higher lows since the overnight low; breakout above prior-day high holding.
The Asia grind extended through the London open, clearing the prior-day high near 0.8223 and printing a session high at 0.8232 before the immediate rejection back to 0.8225 — consistent with the firmer USD on the hawkish Fed narrative. RSI(14) ~65 and ATR ~4.5 pips; the ema20 at 0.8219 and the 0.8205 asia range base are the nearest references beneath, with 0.8196 the prior low.
Support: 0.8219, 0.8205, 0.8196
Resistance: 0.8232, 0.8255
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8219 ema20 and into the 0.8205 asia range would negate the breakout read
Sustained trade above the 0.8232 session high opens the 0.8255 range top
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could reset this intraday range
Failure to hold 0.8196 prior low would confirm a lower low on the session
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs into London · RSI 75 · price 0.82311
HH/HL chain, Asian range broken to the upside.
London open pushed USDCHF through the Asian range top near 0.82206 and out to a new window high at 0.82323, extending the hawkish-Fed dollar grind, with RSI(14) near 74.5 — hot but not extreme for a trending M15. Overnight demand held a rising sequence of lows from 0.81963, and the broken 0.82230 prior high is now the first reference beneath price; ATR(14) is a thin 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8215, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82323, 0.8240
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back below 0.82230 prior high would put price back inside the asian range
Loss of 0.82150 breaks the higher-low chain built off the 0.81963 session low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr are the session's main risk to this intraday structure
SNB assessment Thursday 07:30 UTC can reprice CHF beyond this window's range
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 69 · price 0.82254
Higher highs since Asia low, range break at London open.
First hour of London broke the 0.8205–0.8221 Asian range topside, printing a session high at 0.8227 with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50; RSI(14) ~69, hot but not extreme. The push fits the broader USD bid on hawkish Fed pricing described in the digest, with CHF still the funding leg into tomorrow's SNB.
Support: 0.8221, 0.8205, 0.8196
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8263
What it said to watch
Loss of 0.8221 asia high on a 15m close puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout read
Failure to hold 0.8205 asia low would confirm the range break as a false break
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC can reprice this intraday structure quickly
Sustained trade above 0.8227 session high opens the path toward the 0.8263 cycle high
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm into London · RSI 69 · price 0.82254
Higher highs / higher lows since the 0.81963 pivot; Asian range top broken.
London open pushed USDCHF through the Asian range top and yesterday's 0.8223 area, printing a 0.82269 session high with RSI(14) near 69 — hot but not extreme. The advance has tracked a rising support line off the 0.81963 pivot, consistent with the hawkish-Fed dollar bid that has lifted USD to seven-week highs; last bar is stalling just under the session high with 0.823 round number above.
Support: 0.8215, 0.81977
Resistance: 0.82269, 0.8230
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 0.82269 session high opens the path toward the 0.823 round number
Loss of the rising supp line and a close back under 0.8215 puts the Asian range mid back in play; below 0.81977 asian low negates the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and SNB assessment Thu 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into London · RSI 65 · price 0.82215
HH/HL chain since the overnight low, price at window high.
USDCHF ground higher all through the Asia session and has just pushed to a new session high at 0.82239, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 as the hawkish-Fed repricing keeps the dollar bid. The HH/HL chain off the 0.82048 asia low is intact with a micro pivot at 0.8215; ATR(14) is a thin 3.2 pips, so ranges are compressed into the London open.
Support: 0.8215, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82239, 0.82263
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.82239 session high puts the 0.82263 cycle high in play
A close back below 0.8215 micro pivot breaks the HH/HL chain; 0.82048 asia low is the next reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the main intraday catalyst and could reset this range
Chain of rising lows pressing into the 0.82230 prior high.
Recovery off the 0.81963 NY low has retraced almost all of the earlier slide to 0.81834, with Asia building a chain of rising lows into the London open and price now pressing the 0.82230 prior high. ATR(14) near 3 pips and RSI(14) around 62 mark this as compressed drift rather than impulse, consistent with the hawkish Fed repricing keeping USD supported at ~0.8220.
Support: 0.82137, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82230 prior high opens the 0.82246 prior day hi
Loss of 0.82137 rising lows breaks the Asian up-slope, with the 0.82048 swing low the next reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT can override this compressed structure within hours
Higher lows through Asia, pressing prior-day high.
Asia ground USDCHF back up from 0.82048 in a tight rising channel and the early London bars are now testing the prior high at 0.82230, with the pair recovering to ~0.8220 as hawkish Fed pricing firmed the dollar. ATR(14) is only ~4 pips and RSI(14) near 63 — momentum is constructive but the range is compressed, with the 24h high at 0.82246 still unbroken.
Support: 0.82132, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82230 prior high would extend the leg toward the 0.82246 24h high
Loss of 0.82132 swing low breaks the rising support line and invalidates the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the next volatility trigger; SNB assessment tomorrow 07:30 GMT is the larger structural risk
Higher lows inside a tight Asian channel below prior day high.
Asia session ground higher in a tight channel of higher lows, printing a session high at 0.82206 with USD holding near 7-week highs on hawkish Fed pricing. Prior day high 0.82230 still caps, and ATR(14) at just 3.4 pips shows how compressed the Asian range is with RSI(14) mid-50s.
Support: 0.82119, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82206, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the prior day high 0.82230 extends the Asia channel
Loss of the swing low 0.82119 breaks the rising channel support
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the first liquidity event that can break this compressed range
Higher lows inside a tight Asian range, pressing its top.
Asia has ground USDCHF back to the top of its 0.82048–0.82206 range via a chain of rising lows, extending the recovery leg off yesterday's London low as hawkish Fed repricing keeps the dollar firm. Overhead sits the prior high at 0.82230 and the window high at 0.82246; RSI(14) ~61 with ATR(14) only ~3 pips, so the move is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.82119, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82230 prior high puts the 0.82246 window high in play
Loss of the 0.82119 micro low, then the 0.82048 asia low, breaks the rising-lows sequence; 0.81963 swing low is the deeper reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main volatility risk after this quiet Asian range
Higher lows since London low, coiling under session high.
Price has ground back up from the 0.81834 London low in a chain of higher lows and is now compressed into a 0.82130–0.82188 band through the Asian session, with USD supported by hawkish Fed repricing. ATR(14) at ~3 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at 56 — no expansion in play until the session high at 0.82188 or the 0.82048 swing low gives way.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81977, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82188, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82188 session high opens the 0.82230 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.81977 asian low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC can break this range outright
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this pair
Asia has ground higher in 2-3 pip bars off the 0.81963 asia low, leaving price pinned just under the 0.82188 asia high with RSI(14) mid-range at ~57 and ATR compressed to roughly 3 pips. USD firmness on hawkish Fed repricing keeps the drift upward, but the last 20 bars are effectively a flat range floor near 0.82112 — nothing structural until London supplies volume.
Support: 0.82112, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82188, 0.82246
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82188 asia high opens the path to the 0.82246 prior high
Loss of the 0.82112 range floor puts the 0.81963 asia low back in play, with 0.81834 the prior low beneath
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC are the session's volatility trigger; SNB assessment tomorrow 07:30 UTC could reset this range entirely
Recovery off 0.8183 low, grinding higher in a tight 0.8210–0.8218 band.
Asia has ground back up from the 0.81963 low into a very tight 0.82119–0.8218 band, holding above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR compressed to ~3.4 pips. Nothing structural in play — the pair is consolidating under the 0.8223 prior high after yesterday's dollar-led recovery stalled below the 0.8246 window high.
Support: 0.82119, 0.8205, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223, 0.82461
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 0.8218 session high opens the path to 0.8223 prior high
Loss of 0.8205 swing low would break the Asia recovery sequence and re-expose 0.81963 asia low
SNB decision 07:30 UTC and press conference 08:00 UTC land within the next few bars and can void this compressed-range read
Consolidation in upper half of the 24h range, higher lows through Asia.
Asia has ground out a chain of higher lows off 0.81977 and is now capped by the asia high at 0.82180, with the pair sitting mid-range and ATR compressed near 3.4 pips. The 0.81834 swing low from London hours and the 0.8223 ny high still frame the 24h range; CHF's recovery below 0.8200 was bought back, leaving price in the upper half.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81977, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 0.82180 puts the 0.8223 ny high and 0.82246 window high back in play
Loss of the 0.82048 asia pivot breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 0.81977
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main catalyst and can override this compressed range
After the NY-hours slide to the 0.81963 session low, the Asia session has ground back up in a 0.82048–0.82180 band, with the last closed bar at 0.82156 just under the asia high and ATR(14) compressed to ~3 pips. RSI(14) near 58 and price above both EMA20 and EMA50 — the four-day CHF recovery that dragged the pair under 0.8200 has stalled into balance rather than extending.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82180 asia high exposes the 0.82230 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 range low re-opens the 0.81963 session low and 0.81834 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the first material catalyst and can break this compression
Asia session has ground higher in a tight 0.81977–0.82180 band after yesterday's London-NY slide into the 0.81834 prior low, with ATR(14) down to roughly 3 pips. Price is parked just under the asia high with RSI(14) near 58 and a chain of higher lows off the 0.82048 swing low, price holding above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81977, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.82246
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 0.82180 asia high opens the path back to the 0.82246 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 swing low breaks the rising support and returns focus to the 0.81977 asia low
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC plus press conference at 08:00 UTC can reset this intraday range entirely
04:31 UTC
Mild uptrend within Asia grind, momentum shallow · RSI 63 · price 0.8215
Higher highs and higher lows off 0.81963, capped at asia high.
Asia has retraced roughly 70% of the prior slide from 0.8223 to 0.81963, grinding up a shallow channel of rising lows into 0.82150 with ATR compressed to ~3.4 pips. The asia high at 0.82180 is the immediate cap; the move is USD-side, consistent with the hawkish Fed repricing that has kept the dollar bid while CHF held a four-day recovery.
Support: 0.8210, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 0.82180 asia high opens the path back to the 0.8223 prior high and 0.82246 session high
Loss of the 0.82100 pivot and then the 0.82048 swing low breaks the rising-low chain and re-exposes the 0.81963 asia low
SNB decision and press conference later this week, plus US flash PMIs, can materially reset this intraday structure
04:16 UTC
Mild uptrend inside a 24h range · RSI 64 · price 0.82163
Higher lows through Asia, capped under the asia high.
Asia has ground higher in a tight rising-lows sequence off 0.82048, with price now pressing the 0.82180 asia high after Tuesday's NY fade from 0.82230 down to 0.81963. Ranges are thin — ATR(14) just over 4 pips — and the move fits the digest's read of a rate-driven USD bid meeting a CHF that has firmed for four sessions; RSI(14) near 63 is warm but not extended.
Support: 0.8213, 0.82048, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82180 opens the path back to the 0.82230 ny high
Loss of 0.82048 breaks the rising-lows structure and re-opens 0.81963
London open liquidity can void the tight Asia range read in one bar
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC is the dominant scheduled risk for this pair
Higher lows off 0.81963 pressing the Asian range high.
Late Asia session has ground back to the top of its own range, price at 0.82135 just under the 0.82180 asia high after the NY-session slide to 0.81834 was fully retraced — CHF's four-day recovery pushed the pair under 0.8200 before demand stepped in around 0.81963. RSI(14) at 56 and ATR(14) of just 3.5 pips confirm a compressed, low-volatility grind rather than a directional leg.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.8218, 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82180 asia high opens the path back to the 0.82230 ny high
Loss of the 0.82048 swing low puts the 0.81963 asia low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and could break this range in either direction
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 GMT keeps CHF-side event risk live
03:31 UTC
Grinding higher within Asia session, momentum steady · RSI 66 · price 0.82175
Higher highs / higher lows since the NY low, retesting NY session high zone.
Asia has walked USDCHF back up in a shallow channel of higher lows from the 0.81963 ny low, and price at 0.82175 now sits just under the 0.82225 ny high after the pair spent London under pressure into 0.81834. RSI(14) ~66 and ATR(14) only ~3.8 pips — a slow, low-volatility drift rather than an impulsive move, with the SNB-Fed rate gap still the background driver.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82225, 0.82246
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 0.82225 ny high would extend the intraday sequence toward the 0.82246 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 session low breaks the rising-lows chain and reopens 0.81963
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and could override this intraday structure
03:16 UTC
Grinding higher inside a range, thin Asia liquidity · RSI 62 · price 0.82151
12h range 0.8196-0.8223, micro higher lows since 0.8196.
Early Asia session is drifting up in the top half of the 0.8196-0.8223 range, with the last bars posting a shallow higher-low chain off the 0.82048 asian low and price holding above EMA20/EMA50. ATR(14) at ~3.6 pips shows how compressed the tape is after yesterday's NY rejection near the prior high at 0.8223; CHF has been firmer for four sessions while the USD bid stays front-end-rate driven.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82166, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82166 session high puts the 0.82230 prior high back in play
Loss of the 0.82048 asian low breaks the rising support line and reopens 0.81963 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and SNB Thursday can reset this range entirely
02:46 UTC
Range-bound, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.82125
0.8196–0.8223 range; higher lows since the NY low.
Price slipped under 0.8200 into the NY close as CHF firmed for a fourth session, printing 0.81963 before a slow Asian-hours grind back to 0.82125, now just under the 0.82166 session high. Structure is a tight range with higher lows off 0.82048; ATR(14) at ~4 pips flags how thin the current session is.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81977, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82166, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82166 session high extends the Asia grind toward the 0.82230 ny high
Loss of 0.82048 swing low re-exposes the 0.81977 asia low and the 0.81963 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and SNB Thursday are the events capable of breaking this range
02:31 UTC
Grinding higher off the NY low, shallow slope · RSI 66 · price 0.82157
Higher lows through Asia inside the prior day's 0.8196-0.8223 range.
Asia has built a tight chain of higher lows off the late-NY low at 0.81963 and price is printing at the session high, 0.82157, with USD still supported by hawkish Fed repricing. Momentum is modest rather than impulsive — ATR(14) only ~3.5 pips — and the prior high at 0.8223 has yet to be tested.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 0.8223 prior high would extend the Asia advance toward the 0.82246 day high
Loss of the 0.82048 asia low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens 0.81963
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the session's main catalyst and can reset this intraday range
02:16 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift within Asia range · RSI 63 · price 0.82124
Lower high at 0.8223, Asia session carving higher lows off 0.8198.
NY hours faded the 0.8223 prior high down to the 0.81963 ny low, and Asia has since rebuilt a tight 0.81977–0.82151 range with the pair pressing the session high at 0.82124. RSI(14) near 63 and ATR(14) around 3 pips — thin, low-volatility conditions ahead of the US flash PMIs, with USD holding its Fed-repricing bid.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81977, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82151, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82151 session high opens the path back to the 0.82230 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 swing low returns price into the lower half of the Asia range toward 0.81977
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Barr shortly after are the session's main catalysts for this read
SNB decision tomorrow 07:30 GMT is a known event risk sitting just beyond this window
01:46 UTC
Recovering off the day low, mild upward drift · RSI 57 · price 0.82138
Asian range broken topside, higher lows since 0.81963.
The tight Asian range (0.82048 asia base to roughly 0.82071) was broken topside in the last hour, last print 0.82138 with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR(14) only ~3.2 pips. NY hours had rejected the 0.82230 prior high and based at the 0.81963 swing low; the 0.81834 day low from the London leg is untouched, and price now sits just under the 0.82151 session high.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82151, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 0.82048 asia base negates the range break and re-opens 0.81963 swing low
0.82151 session high then 0.82230 prior high are the areas to monitor for rejection or break
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Thursday's SNB decision are the event risks that could reset this intraday read
Range-bound inside Tuesday's NY range, higher lows since 0.81963.
Asia is grinding a tight 0.82048–0.82117 range after the NY pullback from 0.82230 stalled at 0.81963, with price now back above EMA20 and EMA50. Momentum is contained — RSI(14) near 61, ATR(14) only ~4 pips — and the 0.82133 swing high is the first cap for this session.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82133, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.82133 swing high would put the 0.82230 prior high back in play
Loss of the 0.82048 asia low re-opens 0.81963 ny low and invalidates the higher-low chain
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC are the next scheduled volatility events for this range
SNB decision Thursday 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Sideways, no intraday direction · RSI 56 · price 0.82072
Mid-range drift inside the Asian range after NY sold the 0.8223 high.
Asia is holding a tight 0.81977–0.82117 range with price at 0.82072, just above the EMA20 and roughly 40% back off the NY slide from the 0.8223 prior day high. ATR(14) has compressed to ~3 pips on thin volume; the CHF-firmer tone that dragged the pair under 0.8200 during NY hours has stalled rather than extended.
Support: 0.82055, 0.81977, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82117, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82117 asia high would put the 0.82230 prior day high back in play
Loss of the 0.81977 asia low re-exposes the 0.81834 prior day lo
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr after are the first liquidity events capable of breaking this range
01:03 UTC
Sideways, no directional edge · RSI 54 · price 0.82072
Mid-range within the 0.81834-0.82246 day range; Asia coiling above the range base.
Price is pinned mid-range after the NY session sold the 0.82230 prior high back to the 0.81963 ny low, with the 0.81834 day low from the London drop still untested. Asia has compressed into a 0.82048-0.82117 band on sub-3 pip bars, RSI(14) flat near 54 and price sitting on EMA20 — the fourth-session CHF recovery that dragged the pair under 0.8200 has stalled rather than extended.
Support: 0.82048, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82117, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82117 asia high reopens the 0.82230 prior high
Loss of the 0.82048 range base puts the 0.81963 ny low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's main structural risk to this range read
SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC could invalidate any intraday range established today
Asian range inside yesterday's NY range, higher lows since 0.81963.
Early Asia is grinding in a tight 0.81995–0.82117 range after the NY-session slide from 0.82230 into 0.81963 was roughly half retraced; price sits just above EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR compressed to ~4 pips. Nothing structural in play — the London low at 0.81834 remains the session's deepest marker, consistent with the fourth day of CHF firmness noted in the wider USD-softening read.
Support: 0.81995, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82117, 0.8223
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82117 asia high would extend the recovery toward the 0.82230 ny high
Loss of the 0.81995 asia low re-exposes the 0.81963 ny low and confirms a lower low
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst and can break this Asian range
Asian range building above the late-NY low, higher lows since 0.81977.
Thin early-Asia tape: USDCHF is grinding back up to the Asian range high at 0.82114 after holding 0.81977, price now above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-range at 58. The pair remains under 0.8200-plus resistance carved out during NY, having failed twice at 0.82133 before the late-NY slide to 0.81963; the 0.81834–0.82230 leg from London-NY still frames the session.
Support: 0.8205, 0.81977, 0.81963
Resistance: 0.82114, 0.82133, 0.8223
What it said to watch
Close above 0.82114 asia high opens the path back to the 0.82133 swing high and the 0.8223 prior high
Loss of 0.81977 asia low re-exposes the 0.81963 ny low and negates the higher-low sequence
Liquidity stays thin until London open; US flash PMIs later today are the first material data risk
00:16 UTC
Sideways, no intraday trend · RSI 58 · price 0.82092
Overnight consolidation above 0.8200 after the NY rejection at 0.8223.
Supply capped twice at the 0.8223 ny high / 0.82246 day high before the NY slide into 0.81963, and the pair has since gone quiet, coiling in a 0.8198–0.8209 band through the late US and early Asia hours with ATR(14) down to ~4 pips. The 0.81834–0.8223 rally is only about a third retraced, price sits just above EMA20 and EMA50 and above the 0.8200 psych level, with CHF's four-day recovery stalling into the SNB.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81963, 0.81834
Resistance: 0.82133, 0.8223, 0.82246
What it said to watch
A 15m close below 0.81963 ny low re-opens the 0.81834 day low
Reclaim of the 0.82133 prior high puts the flat 0.8223–0.82246 cap back in play
Loss of the 0.8200 psych level would end the overnight consolidation read
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and SNB decision Thu 07:30 UTC are the events that break this range