Range 0.8264–0.8296 after London breakout; tight early-Asia coil near 0.8279.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 0.8239–0.8256 Asian range. NY extended the move to a 0.8296 day high before a sharp flush to the 0.8264 ny low, near the 50% of the SNB leg fib, was bought back to a 0.8291 swing high. Early Asia is coiling around 0.8279, sitting on the flat EMA20 near the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral at ~47.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 swing high reopens the 0.8296 day high
Failure below the 0.8272 rollover low exposes the 0.8264 ny low and the SNB leg fib 50%
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Post-SNB uptrend, now coiling · RSI 49 · price 0.82787
Lower highs from 0.8296 against rising lows off 0.8264.
The dovish SNB hold drove a 0.8229 to 0.8296 day high rally, a 16-month high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at the 0.8291 swing high and the 0.8282 lower high, while lows keep rising from the 0.8264 NY low (near the 50% fib). Early Asia trade is thin and flat around 0.8279, with price on both EMAs, RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82821, 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8282 lower high and the pennant trendline reopens the 0.8291 swing high and the 0.8296 day high
Failure to hold the 0.8272 rollover low (just above the 38.2% fib) exposes the 0.8264 NY low at the 50% fib
A break below the 0.8264 NY low undoes the post-SNB higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could break the coil
The SNB's dovish hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 42-pip spike through the Asian range. The move extended to a 0.8296 session high in the NY session, then a 16:15 UTC flush found a swing low at 0.8264. Since then, lower highs have compressed price into 0.8272–0.8286 through the rollover into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and price hugging the flat EMAs.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82861, 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 rollover low exposes the 0.8264 swing low near the 50% fib of the SNB leg
Close above the 0.8286 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.8291 lower high and 0.8296 session high sit above
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Post-breakout uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 45 · price 0.82782
Pennant: lower highs from 0.8296, higher lows off 0.8264.
The SNB's dovish hold at 07:30 UTC broke the pair out of the Asian range (0.8239–0.8256). The move ran to a 0.8296 session high in NY before a sharp drop to the 0.8264 swing low. Since then a pennant of lower highs and higher lows has formed, with price at 0.8278 in thin post-NY trade, just above the 0.8272 late low and the fib 38.2 of the SNB leg near 0.8271; RSI(14) is flat around 45.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82861, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 late low and fib 38.2 exposes the 0.8264 swing low, which sits on the prior 0.8263 yearly high
Close above the 0.8286 lower high breaks the pennant trendline and reopens the 0.8296 session high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US durables at 12:30 UTC Friday, could resolve the pennant
Lower high at 0.8291 under 0.8296 day high; tight 0.8272–0.8286 range into Asia.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC triggered a 40-pip breakout from 0.8229, extending to a 0.8296 day high in NY before a drop to the 0.8264 swing low. Since then a lower high at 0.8291 and a thin-rollover drift to a 0.8272 session low. Price sits flat at EMA20 with RSI(14) ~42, holding above the fib 38.2 of the SNB leg while the Asia session has yet to set its range.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8270, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8296
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 session low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8270 and the 0.8264 swing low
Close back above the 0.8291 lower high reopens the 0.8296 day high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.8296 day high, holding above 0.8264.
The dovish-leaning SNB hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 42-pip spike through the 0.8263 yearly high, and the post-SNB leg topped at the 0.8296 day high during NY hours. Since then, lower highs at 0.8291 and the 0.8286 late-NY high have walked price back to 0.8278 in early Asia, just above the 0.8272 Asia low and inside the 23.6–38.2% fib zone, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643, 0.8263
Resistance: 0.82861, 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8272 asia low exposes the 0.8264 ny swing low and the 0.8263 yearly high
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.8296 day high next
A move back above the 0.8286 late-ny high would ease the drift lower
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs under 0.8296, holding above 0.8264 NY low.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC broke the Asian high at 0.8256 in a single bar and carried USDCHF to a 0.8296 session high during NY hours, with the Fed's hike talk and US data beats adding USD support. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 0.8291 and a late NY cap at 0.8286. It is now drifting in thin early-Asia trade near the 0.8272 rollover low, just above the 38.2% of the SNB leg fib, with RSI(14) at 44 and price slipping under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.82717, 0.82643, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82861, 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.8296 session high
Failure to hold the 0.8272 rollover low and the 38.2% of the SNB leg fib exposes the 0.8264 NY low, which sits just above the 0.8263 yearly high
A break below the 0.8264 NY low puts the 0.8256 Asian high back in play as the post-SNB breakout level
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Post-SNB uptrend, now drifting lower in range · RSI 41 · price 0.82752
Range 0.8264–0.8296 after impulse; lower high at 0.8291.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip impulse through the Asian range. The move extended to a 0.8296 day high in NY as the hawkish Fed chorus and US data beats kept USD bid. Since then a 0.8264 flush low and a lower high at 0.8291 frame the range, and price has faded to 0.8275 into the thin post-NY rollover with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.82705, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8270 38.2% fib of the SNB leg exposes the 0.8264 flush low
A break of the flush low undoes the post-SNB range and returns price toward the 0.8263 prior yearly high
Reclaim of the 0.8291 lower high reopens the 0.8296 day high
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC lifted the pair about 40 pips off 0.8229. The rally extended to a 0.8296 session high during NY hours, but price was rejected there at 16:15 UTC and has since printed lower highs at 0.8291 and 0.8286. Late NY is drifting to 0.8275, just below both EMAs. RSI(14) is near 40, and the fib 38.2 of the SNB leg at 0.8270 is the nearest support.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82861, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8270 fib 38.2 exposes the 0.8264 swing low and turns the pullback into a lower-low sequence
Close back above the 0.8286 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the session high
Thin post-NY and rollover liquidity can distort ranges before Asia
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Post-SNB uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 45 · price 0.82781
Lower high at 0.8291 after 0.8296 peak; tight late-NY range 0.8278–0.8286.
The SNB's dovish-leaning hold at 07:30 UTC flipped the pair from 0.8229 to 0.8270 in one bar, and USD strength carried it to a 0.8296 day high during NY hours. After the 16:15 UTC flush held the 0.8264 swing low near the 50% retracement, price has compressed between a 0.8278 micro low and 0.8286 range top beneath a lower high, now in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.82775, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 micro low exposes the 0.8264 swing low, just above the 0.8263 prior yearly high
Break of the 0.8286 range top and the 0.8291 lower high reopens the 0.8296 day high
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts
Risk-off or oil headlines could trigger a fast CHF haven bid against a stretched move
20:46 UTC
Uptrend after SNB, consolidating late NY · RSI 57 · price 0.82847
Lower highs from 0.8291 against a 0.8278 floor, compressing after the NY day high.
The SNB's dovish hold drove a 40-pip bar off the 0.8229 low at 07:30 UTC. The rally ran to the 0.8296 day high in NY, and the 16:15 UTC flush held at the 0.8264 spike low, near the 50% level of the SNB move fib and just above the old 0.8263 yearly high. After the NY close, price is compressing between the 0.8278 swing low and the 0.8291 lower high, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.82783, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8296 day high and the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8278 swing low exposes the 0.8264 spike low and the 0.8263 yearly high
Thin Asia session ahead; Fri 12:30 UTC durables and the Williams/Hammack remarks could materially shift this read
0.8264–0.8296 range with lower highs since the session high.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC turned an early dip to 0.8229 into a 70-pip rally, clearing the Asian range, and US data extended it to the 0.8296 session high. Since then the pair has chopped in a 0.8264–0.8296 band, with a minor high at 0.8286 below the 0.8291 NY high and price resting on the late NY low at 0.8279. The range floor at 0.8270 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the SNB move fib.
Support: 0.8279, 0.8270, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8291, 0.8296
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8279 late NY low exposes the 0.8270 range floor
Break of the 0.8264 spike low puts the 0.8263 yearly high retest in play and undercuts the range
Close above the 0.8286 minor high and 0.8291 NY high reopens the 0.8296 session high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and durable goods at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower high 0.8291 under 0.8296 session high; range floor at 0.8264 flush low.
The dovish SNB hold drove USD/CHF from 0.8229 through the 0.8263 yearly high, extending to a 0.8296 session high in NY. A mid-NY flush to 0.8264 was bought near the 50% fib of the SNB rally. Late NY has printed a lower high at 0.8291, with price parked at the 0.8279 late low, just under EMA20 and with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.8279, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8279 late low exposes the 0.8264 flush low and the 0.8263 yearly high
M15 close back under the 0.8263 yearly high undercuts the post-SNB breakout
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high reopens the 0.8296 session high and the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durable goods (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Compression below 0.8296 session high; lower high at 0.8291, higher-low base 0.8264-66.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC lifted USD/CHF from 0.8229 to a 0.8296 session high in NY, clearing the 0.8263 yearly high, with firm US claims and home sales data adding support. Late in NY, price is compressing between the 0.8279 consol low and a 0.8291 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price is hugging the ema20.
Support: 0.8279, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high and 0.8296 session high resumes the post-SNB uptrend toward the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8279 consol low exposes the 0.8264 ny low, which sits on the 0.8263 yearly high and the 38.2–50% fib zone
Failure to hold the 0.8264 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence from the SNB move
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC Fri) is the next scheduled USD risk; nothing on the calendar in the next 8h
Range 0.8264–0.8296 after SNB impulse; lower high at 0.8291.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC drove a sharp rally off the 0.8229 pre-decision low, and USD strength after firm US claims extended it to a session high of 0.8296 in NY. That high was rejected, and the 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8264 spike low held between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the SNB rally fib. Late NY is compressing under a lower high at 0.8291 with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8279, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8296 session high breaks the range top and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8279 pullback low exposes the 0.8264 spike low and the 50% level of the SNB rally fib
ATR near 7 pips in late NY; range edges likely hold into the Asia session absent headlines
Fri US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Uptrend since SNB, stalling below day high · RSI 46 · price 0.82812
Post-SNB higher-low chain intact; lower high at 0.8291 after 0.8296 peak.
The dovish SNB hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip spike off 0.8229, and strong US claims extended the move to the 0.8296 day high during NY hours. The 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8264 NY low held above the fib 38.2 zone. The bounce stalled at a 0.8291 lower high, and price is now drifting near the 0.8279 micro low after London close, with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.8279, 0.82705, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8296 day high clears the lower high and puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Loss of the 0.8279 micro low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8270 and the 0.8264 NY low
A break below the 0.8264 NY low would end the post-SNB higher-low sequence
Thin late-NY and Asia session trade; Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst
Lower high at 0.8291 under 0.8296 session high; 0.8264 spike low held.
The SNB's dovish hold drove a 40-pip spike from 0.8229, and upbeat US claims and home sales extended the move to a 0.8296 session high in NY. A sharp flush to the 0.8264 spike low held just above the old 0.8263 yearly high and retraced to 0.8291. Price is now coiling near 0.8281 between the late NY low at 0.8279 and that lower high, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.8279, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8296
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 lower high reopens the 0.8296 session high
Loss of the 0.8279 late ny low exposes the 0.8264 spike low and the 38.2–50% zone of the SNB rally fib
A break back below 0.8264 would put price under the old 0.8263 yearly high and fail the post-SNB breakout
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; risk-off or oil headlines are the main haven-flow trigger
Lower high at 0.8291 under the 0.8296 session high; consolidating 0.8264–0.8296 in late NY.
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip spike off the 0.8229 pre-SNB low. Strong US claims data then helped carry the move in NY to a 0.8296 session high. The sharp 16:15 UTC drop found a floor at the 0.8264 NY low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the SNB leg, and the rebound faded at a 0.8291 lower high after London close, leaving price mid-range near 0.8280 with RSI(14) ~51.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8264
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8296 session high and 0.8300 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8270 higher low exposes the 0.8264 NY low and the 50% fib of the SNB leg near 0.8263
Thin late-NY/Asia liquidity until Fri Fedspeak (Williams 09:15 UTC) and Durable Goods (12:30 UTC)
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 48 · price 0.82818
Post-SNB higher lows intact; 0.8291 lower high capping late NY.
The SNB's softer FX-intervention language at 07:30 UTC sparked a 40-pip impulse off the 0.8229 low. Strong US claims then extended the rally to a 0.8296 day high in NY. The 16:15 UTC drop held the 0.8264 swing low near the 50% fib and the post-SNB trendline, but the rebound stalled at a 0.8291 lower high, leaving late NY consolidating around the ema20.
Support: 0.82696, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82911, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8296 day high reopens the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8270 higher low puts the 0.8264 swing low and post-SNB trendline back in play
Loss of 0.8264 swing low exposes the 0.8263 prior yearly high and the 61.8% fib near 0.8255
Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and Durables (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-SNB range 0.8264–0.8296, lower high at 0.8289.
The SNB's 0% hold with softer intervention language lifted price from the 0.8229 low at 07:30 UTC, well clear of the 0.8239–0.8256 Asian range. The move extended to a 0.8296 session high in NY hours on US data beats before a rejection. The 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8264 swing low held near the 50% retracement of the SNB move, and price now sits at 0.8284 between a 0.8270 higher low and a 0.8289 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 late in NY.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8264, 0.8256
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8296 session high and 0.8300 round number resumes the higher-high sequence
Break of the 0.8270 higher low puts the 0.8264 swing low (50% fib of the SNB move) back in play
Loss of 0.8264 breaks post-SNB structure and exposes the 0.8256 Asian high
Thin Asia session ahead; Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next scheduled driver
Post-SNB breakout, higher low held at 0.8264 after NY flush.
The SNB's 0% hold and softer intervention wording drove a 42-pip breakout from 0.8229 at 07:30 UTC. Hawkish Fed repricing then extended the move to a 0.8296 session high during NY hours. A sharp 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8264 spike low held above the 50% fib retracement and was retraced, and after London close price sits mid-range below the 0.8289 recovery high.
Support: 0.8275, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.82889, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8264 spike low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib retracement near 0.8263
Failure to hold the 0.8275 higher low turns the recovery into a range between 0.8264 and 0.8296
Close above the 0.8289 recovery high reopens the 0.8296 session high and the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Friday could shift the read ahead of the US durables release
Post-SNB stair-step higher; 16:15 dip undercut prior low then reclaimed.
The SNB hold and softer intervention wording drove a 0.8229→0.8272 spike at 07:30 UTC, and the SNB leg extended to a 0.8296 session high in NY hours. The 16:15 UTC flush to the 0.8264 NY low briefly undercut the 0.8266 midday pivot and sits near the 38.2–50% of the SNB leg. It was bought back, and a higher low formed at 0.8270. In the late NY session, price is pressing the 0.8284 swing high with RSI(14) near 53 and EMA20 flat underneath.
Support: 0.8270, 0.82643
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8284 swing high puts the 0.8296 session high and 0.8300 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8270 higher low, then a close below the 0.8264 ny low, breaks the post-SNB sequence and exposes the 50% of the SNB leg near 0.8263
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US Durables (12:30 UTC) could shift the read after the Asia session
17:31 UTC
Post-SNB uptrend, pulled back and stalling · RSI 50 · price 0.82771
Higher highs to 0.8296, sharp pullback held near 0.8264, now consolidating mid-range.
SNB's softer FX language at 07:30 UTC sparked a 42-pip spike off 0.8229, and beats in US claims and new home sales extended the NY leg to a 0.8296 session high. A sharp 16:15 UTC drop tagged a 0.8264 pullback low near the 50% fib and the 0.8263 prior yearly high before recovering. Price is now stalling around 0.8277 after London close, with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8262
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8262 breaks the post-SNB low and fails the prior-high retest
Reclaim of the 0.8286 swing high re-opens the 0.8296 session high and the 0.8300 round number
Fri 09:15 UTC Williams, 12:30 UTC durables and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Uptrend post-SNB, momentum faded late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.82768
SNB breakout from Asian range; NY session high rejected, pullback held above 50% fib.
The SNB's softer FX language at 07:30 UTC lifted USD/CHF out of the Asian range from 0.8229. London capped at the 0.8284 london high before NY pushed to a 0.8296 session high, backed by strong US claims and home sales. A sharp rejection after London close tagged the 0.8264 spike low, just above the 50% fib of the SNB leg and the 0.8263 prior yearly high, and price has since recovered to 0.8277, still below EMA20.
Support: 0.82643, 0.8263, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8284 london high reopens the 0.8296 session high
A close above 0.8296 exposes the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8264 spike low and 0.8263 yearly high undercuts the SNB breakout; the 0.8256 asian high is next below
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri is the next scheduled USD driver
The SNB's softer FX language at 07:30 UTC drove a 50-pip breakout from 0.8229 below the Asian range. Firm US claims and new home sales then carried NY to a 0.8296 session high before a sharp 16:15 UTC flush. Demand stepped in at the 0.8264 ny low, near the 50% level of the SNB leg fib, and price sits just below EMA20 after London close with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.82643, 0.82619, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8284 london high reopens the 0.8296 session high and the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8262 london low breaks the post-SNB higher-low sequence, with the 0.8256 asian high as the next reference
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled drivers that could shift this read
16:46 UTC
Post-SNB uptrend, sharp pullback late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.82732
HH/HL chain since 07:30 UTC; rising line broken, 0.8263 breakout being retested.
The SNB's softer FX-intervention language drove a 40-pip spike off the 0.8229 pre-snb low at 07:30 UTC, and beats in US claims and new home sales carried USD/CHF to a 0.8296 session high during NY hours. A 20-pip drop after London close broke the rising line and tagged 0.8264, just above the 0.8263 yearly high and near the 50% fib of the post-SNB move. Price is holding at the ema50 and RSI has cooled to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8296
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8263 yearly high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8229 pre-snb low
Recovery above the 0.8286 prior high puts the 0.8296 session high back in play
Loss of the ema50 near 0.8271 extends the pullback toward the 50% fib
Liquidity thins into late NY; no scheduled catalyst until Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Fri
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 52 · price 0.8281
Higher lows since SNB spike; late-NY pullback testing trendline.
The SNB hold and softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC sent USDCHF from 0.8229 through the 0.8263 prior yearly high. Firm US claims data then carried it to a 0.8296 session high in NY. After London close price has eased back to 0.8281, sitting on the 23.6% fib and the rising trendline from the 0.8266 london low, with RSI(14) cooled to about 52.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82655
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8286 prior high reopens the 0.8296 session high and the 0.8300 round number
Break below the 0.8272 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) ends the higher-low chain on the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.8266 london low puts price back toward the 0.8263 prior yearly high and puts the SNB breakout at risk
Fri 09:15 UTC Fed's Williams could shift Fed October-hike pricing and this read
Higher lows since SNB breakout, pullback from 0.8296.
The dovish-leaning SNB hold at 07:30 UTC broke USDCHF out of the Asian range with a 40-pip bar from 0.8229. It has since built higher lows at the 0.8266 post-SNB low and the 0.8272 swing low, helped by firm US claims and home sales. Price faded 10 pips from the 0.8296 session high in NY hours and is holding above the 23.6% fib at 0.8280, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s.
Support: 0.8280, 0.82725, 0.82655
Resistance: 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the intraday uptrend read
Loss of the 0.8266 post-snb low opens the 38.2–50% fib zone around 0.8270–0.8263
Rejection at the 0.8296 session high vs a break toward the 0.8300 round number
Thin liquidity after London close; next scheduled risk is Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC, then Durables 12:30 UTC
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 0.82862
Post-SNB breakout, higher lows intact, lower highs since 0.8296.
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 0.8229–0.8256 Asian range. London then held a higher low at 0.8266 and firm US claims extended the move to a 0.8296 session high in NY hours. Three lower highs since, with price testing the 0.8283 NY swing low and RSI(14) cooled to ~60.
Support: 0.8283, 0.8272, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8283 NY swing low exposes the 0.8272 higher low, where the trendline and the 38.2% fib sit
Loss of the 0.8266 London low breaks the higher-low chain from the SNB spike
Close above the 0.8296 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
No scheduled USD/CHF risk in the next 8h. Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and durables (12:30 UTC) are the next catalysts.
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 63 · price 0.82907
Post-SNB range broken higher in NY, higher lows.
The SNB's softer intervention language drove a 07:30 UTC spike of about 40 pips off 0.8229. London then held a 0.8262–0.8284 range. During NY hours, firm US claims and home sales data lifted price through the london high to a session high at 0.8296, just shy of the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) is near 63 and the last bar is holding above 0.8290 after a shallow pullback.
Support: 0.8284, 0.82725, 0.8262
Resistance: 0.82964, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8284 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8272 ny swing low breaks the higher-low trendline chain and exposes the 0.8262 post-snb low
Acceptance above 0.8296 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play; the 38.2% snb move fib sits near 0.8270
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through NY · RSI 68 · price 0.82941
HH/HL chain; London range broken to the upside in NY.
The SNB's softer FX-intervention language at 07:30 UTC reversed early losses off 0.8229. London then held a 0.8266–0.8284 range, and NY broke above the london high to a session high at 0.8296 on the back of firm US claims and home sales data. The HH/HL chain is intact from the 0.8272 ny swing low, with RSI(14) near 68 and the 0.8300 round number just overhead.
Support: 0.8284, 0.8272, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8296, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number extends the post-SNB breakout
Rejection at the 0.8296 session high with a close back below the 0.8284 london high signals a stall
Loss of the 0.8272 ny swing low breaks the HL trendline; the 0.8266 london low is next
RSI(14) pushing past 70 into late NY leaves the move short-term stretched
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 0.82886
Higher lows since the SNB spike; NY broke the London range top.
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC flipped an early dip to 0.8229 into a roughly 45-pip leg higher. London then capped price near 0.8284 above the post-SNB low at 0.8262. NY broke that ceiling after the US claims and home-sales beats, printing a session high at 0.8290 off a higher low at 0.8272, with RSI(14) firm near 66 and short of stretched.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82655, 0.82619
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8290 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
A break below the 0.8272 higher low and the rising-lows line shifts focus to the 0.8266 swing low
Losing the 0.8262 post-SNB low would undo the London-NY structure and open a deeper retrace of the SNB leg
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed's Williams and Hammack speak Friday
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC sparked a ~40-pip breakout from the Asian range off 0.8229. Rising lows since then sit at the 0.8266 london low and the 0.8273 ny swing low. US claims and home sales beats carried NY to a 0.8290 session high with RSI(14) near 66, firm but not stretched, and the 0.8300 psych level just overhead.
Support: 0.8286, 0.82725, 0.82655
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 0.8300 psych extends the post-SNB leg; rejection there puts the 0.8286 prior high back in play
M15 close below the 0.8273 ny swing low breaks the rising lows chain
Loss of the 0.8266 london low exposes the 38.2% of the snb leg fib near 0.8267 and a deeper retrace
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 0.82861
Higher highs and higher lows since the SNB reversal from 0.8229.
The SNB's softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC turned an early dip to 0.8229 below the Asian range into a 40-pip SNB leg higher. NY is testing the 0.8287 session high off a higher low at 0.8273, with RSI(14) near 66 and a muted reaction to the US claims beat.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82655
Resistance: 0.82865, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8287 session high exposes the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8273 higher low stalls the chain; loss of the 0.8266 swing low turns the post-SNB structure neutral
Trump-Xi summit headlines today could jolt USD and shift this read
Higher lows from 0.8262 since the SNB spike; session high 0.8286 capping.
The SNB hold and softer FX-intervention language at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip spike off the London low at 0.8229, clearing the Asian range. Since then the SNB leg has held above its post-SNB low at 0.8262 and printed a chain of higher lows, the latest at 0.8272. Into the NY session price tagged a session high at 0.8286 before easing; the beat on US claims drew only a muted reaction, and RSI(14) sits near 58.
Support: 0.82725, 0.82655, 0.82619
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8286 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Break below the 0.8266 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8262 post-SNB low
Trump-Xi summit headline risk today could jolt USD against the rising line
Post-SNB higher highs and higher lows above the broken Asian range.
The softer SNB FX language at 07:30 UTC drove a 42-pip breakout from the 0.8239–0.8256 Asian range, and London then built a higher low at 0.82655 above the 0.8262 post-SNB low. Early NY printed a new session high at 0.8286 before fading to the 0.8271 pivot low zone, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8271, 0.82655, 0.8262
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.82655 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8262 post-SNB low and 38.2% fib
A clean break of the 0.8286 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Failure to hold the rising trendline off the post-SNB lows shifts the read to range
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read during NY hours
The SNB hold at 07:30 UTC turned an early dip to 0.8229 into a 40-pip breakout on its softer FX-intervention language. The breakout cleared the Asian range high at 0.8256, and price has since built higher lows along a rising trendline, holding above the post-SNB low at 0.8262. A rejection at the 0.8286 session high in the London-NY transition has cooled RSI(14) to about 56, with price sitting near the 38.2% level of the SNB leg fib.
Support: 0.8271, 0.82655, 0.82619
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8286 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Losing the 0.8271 micro low, then the 0.8266 swing low and rising trendline, points to a deeper pullback into the SNB leg fib toward the post-SNB low at 0.8262
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines during NY hours could jolt the intraday range
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 62 · price 0.82835
Post-SNB consolidation 0.8266–0.8284 broken higher at NY open.
The SNB's softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip spike off the 0.8229 low (the start of the SNB leg), then price consolidated through London above the 0.8266 swing low and below the 0.8284 prior high. The first hour of NY, following firm US claims, pushed through the prior high to a 0.8286 session high. RSI(14) sits near 62, so momentum is not stretched.
Support: 0.8284, 0.8266
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8284 prior high would mark the NY move as a false break back into the range
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.8266 swing low would retrace most of the SNB leg
Acceptance above the 0.8286 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and unscheduled Trump-Xi headlines could materially shift this read
Post-SNB range 0.8262–0.8284 with higher lows pressing flat top.
The SNB's softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip spike from 0.8229 to the 0.8284 snb high, clearing the Asian range and the prior-high area. Since then price has held above the fib 38.2% at 0.8262, printing higher lows at the 0.8266 swing low and the 0.8273 higher low. Early NY is pressing the flat top, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.8273, 0.8266, 0.8262
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8284 snb high breaks the post-SNB range and opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8273 higher low and rising-lows trendline turns the structure back into a flat range
Break below the 0.8266 swing low and fib 38.2% at 0.8262 puts the SNB breakout at risk
Fed's Paulson remarks and US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone this session
Tight 0.8262–0.8284 range after SNB spike, lower highs capping.
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC drove a ~43-pip impulse. It started from a dip below the Asian low to 0.8229 and cleared the prior high at 0.8260. London has since held a 0.8262–0.8284 consolidation above the 38.2% fib. Into the London-NY transition, price is pinned to EMA20 between a higher low at 0.8271 and a lower high at 0.8280, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.82709, 0.82655, 0.82603
Resistance: 0.82803, 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8284 session high reopens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8266 swing low and the 38.2% fib (~0.8263) exposes the prior high at 0.8260
Break of the 0.8271 higher low would weaken the consolidation read
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could shift this read; a risk-off haven bid for CHF is the main downside catalyst
Close above the lower highs trendline near 0.8280 ends the capping sequence
Consolidation box 0.8266–0.8284 with rising lows after SNB breakout.
The dovish-leaning SNB hold drove a 40-pip bar off the 0.8229 pre-decision low, clearing the Asian range top near 0.8256 and printing a session high at 0.8284. Since then price has held a 0.8266–0.8284 box with rising lows off the 0.8266 range low and a higher low at 0.8271. RSI(14) sits neutral near 51 into the NY open.
Support: 0.82709, 0.82655, 0.82619
Resistance: 0.82794, 0.82839
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8279 swing high and the 0.8284 session high resumes the post-SNB breakout leg
Break below the 0.8271 higher low and the 0.8266 range low ends the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 0.8262 spike low near the 38.2% fib
Fed's Paulson at 13:00 UTC and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Pennant after SNB breakout, lower highs vs higher lows.
The SNB hold at 07:30 UTC, with softer intervention language, lifted the pair about 50 pips off 0.8229 through the Asian range and yesterday's 0.8260 high. It set a session high at 0.8284 and has since compressed into a pennant during London. The snb low at 0.8262 held near the 38.2% fib, and a micro low at 0.8271 is under the lower high at 0.8279 as Jobless Claims hit at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 0.82709, 0.82655, 0.82619
Resistance: 0.82794, 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8284 session high breaks the pennant top, with the 0.8300 round number next
Loss of the 0.8266 swing low and the 0.8262 snb low (38.2% fib) undoes the pennant read
Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack and Paulson at 12:50 and 13:00 GMT could break the compression either way
Risk-off or US-Iran headlines could revive a CHF haven bid against the post-SNB move
12:31 UTC
Uptrend after SNB breakout, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 0.82776
Post-SNB consolidation 0.8266–0.8284 above broken Asian range.
The SNB's softer intervention language at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip range break from 0.8229, clearing the Asian high at 0.8256 and printing a London session high at 0.8284. Since then price has held a 0.8266–0.8284 band, with the swing low at 0.8266 staying above the 38.2% fib of the SNB leg. RSI(14) sits near 55, neutral.
Support: 0.82655, 0.82619, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack 12:50 and Paulson 13:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8284 session high extends the breakout toward the 0.8300 round number
Break below the 0.8266 swing low exposes the post-snb low at 0.8262 and the 38.2% fib
Loss of the Asian high at 0.8256 would unwind the SNB breakout
After a London-open dip to 0.8229, the SNB's softer FX language at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip break through the prior high at 0.8260 to the snb high at 0.8284. Since then price has compressed under a line of lower highs, last at 0.8278, while the 0.8262 area holds as the 38.2% fib and the 0.8266 swing low sits just above it. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 heading into the NY open.
Support: 0.82655, 0.8262, 0.8260
Resistance: 0.8278, 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson by 13:00 UTC could break the band either way
M15 close above the 0.8278 lower high and the 0.8284 snb high opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8266 swing low and the 38.2% fib at 0.8262 puts the prior high at 0.8260 back in play
11:46 UTC
Uptrend after the SNB breakout, momentum stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.82713
The SNB's 0% hold with softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC triggered a 40-pip London spike. Price first dipped below the Asian range low to 0.8229, then ran through the 0.8260 prior high to the 0.8284 SNB high. Late London has since held a tight 0.8262–0.8284 box with lower highs. Price is sitting on the 23.6% fib just above EMA20 at 0.8268, with the 0.8266 pullback low and 0.8262 swing low (38.2%) below and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.8266, 0.8262, 0.8260
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8300
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak into the NY open could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8284 SNB high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 0.8300 round number
Losing the 0.8266 pullback low and 0.8262 swing low (38.2% fib) puts the 0.8260 prior high in play as a retest of the breakout
11:31 UTC
Post-SNB spike, now flat with lower highs · RSI 49 · price 0.82694
Tight consolidation 0.8269–0.8284 above broken Asian range.
The 07:30 UTC SNB hold and softer intervention wording sank CHF. USD/CHF reversed from the 0.8229 London-open low, cleared the 0.8256 Asian high and printed a 0.8284 session high. Mid-London it has compressed into a series of lower highs near 0.8275, leaning on the 0.8269 session base with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and EMA20 flattening just below price.
Support: 0.8269, 0.8262, 0.8256
Resistance: 0.8275, 0.8284
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8269 session base exposes the 0.8262 snb pullback low and the 38.2% fib
Loss of 0.8256 (Asian high) would put price back inside the Asian range and undo the range break
M15 close above the 0.8275 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8284 session high
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Post-SNB impulse higher, now compressing · price 0.82729
Pennant below 0.8284 session high, lower highs and higher lows since 08:15 UTC.
Impulse higher, then tight consolidation below session high.
The SNB's softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC flipped a sweep of the 0.8229 low into a 43-pip bar that cleared the 0.8256 asian high, with the session high set at 0.8284. Late London has since compressed between the 0.8269 range low and a 0.8280 lower high, holding the 23.6% level of the SNB rally fib with ema20 near 0.8267 just beneath.
Support: 0.82687, 0.82619, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82803, 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8284 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Close below the 0.8269 range low and ema20 exposes the post-SNB low at 0.8262 (38.2% of the SNB rally fib)
Return below the 0.8256 asian high would unwind the SNB breakout
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation below session high, minor lower highs.
The SNB's 0% hold with softer intervention wording drove a 40-pip spike at 07:30 UTC. The move ran from the 0.8229 pre-decision low through the asian high at 0.8256, cleared the prior-day high at 0.8260 and topped at the 0.8284 session high. Mid-London, price is holding a tight flag between the 0.8269 pullback low and the session high, above the snb low and 38.2% fib at 0.8262.
Support: 0.82687, 0.8262, 0.8256
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8269 pullback low exposes the snb low / 38.2% fib at 0.8262
Close above the 0.8284 session high and flag top reopens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8256 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
London open ran a sweep of the Asian low (0.8239) down to 0.8229. The SNB's softer intervention wording at 07:30 UTC then drove a 40-pip bar through the 0.8256 Asian high and yesterday's 0.8260 peak. Since then price has held mid-London inside 0.8262–0.8284 below the session high, printing higher lows at the 0.8262 post-SNB low and the 0.8269 swing low. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.82687, 0.82619, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8269 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence; the 0.8262 post-SNB low sits at the 38.2% of the SNB impulse
Acceptance above the 0.8284 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
A drop back through the 0.8256 Asian high (50% of the SNB impulse) would unwind most of the breakout
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K), then Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Post-SNB impulse higher, now pulling back · RSI 61 · price 0.82706
The SNB's dovish-leaning 0% hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 40-pip bar off the 0.8229 London low, clearing yesterday's 0.8260 prior high and printing a 0.8284 session high. Supply has capped the 0.8281 cap zone three times since, and price is easing back to the 23.6% fib of the post-SNB leg at 0.8270, with the 0.8262 swing low and 50% fib at 0.8256 below.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8262, 0.8256
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8284
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8262 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8256 and the broken 0.8260 prior high
A break of the 0.8281 cap zone and 0.8284 session high extends the post-SNB leg
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Post-SNB spike higher, now fading off the high · RSI 60 · price 0.82706
Breakout above Asian range and prior-day high, lower highs since 0.8284 peak.
The SNB's dovish-leaning 0% hold at 07:30 UTC flipped the pre-meeting dip to the 0.8229 pre-SNB low into a ~40-pip breakout through the Asian high and prior-day high, topping at the 0.8284 session high mid-London. Since then, price has printed three lower highs back toward 0.8270, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60. The 38.2% fib and the post-SNB low sit together at 0.8262 below.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8256, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8262 post-SNB low / 38.2% fib exposes the Asian high at 0.8256, near the 50% fib
A break of the 0.8284 session high ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8300 psych level in view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Failure back inside the Asian range would unwind most of the SNB breakout
Post-breakout consolidation under session high, higher low intact.
The SNB's dovish-leaning 0% hold at 07:30 UTC turned the early-London dip to 0.8229 into a 40-pip breakout through the Asian range and yesterday's 0.8260 prior high. On the SNB leg, the 08:15 swing low held at the 38.2% fib near 0.8262 and later dips held a higher low at 0.8271. Price is now consolidating just under the 0.8284 session high, with RSI(14) cooled to about 66.
Support: 0.82707, 0.82619, 0.82603
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8284 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8271 higher low puts the 0.8262 swing low back in play
An M15 close back below the 0.8260 prior high undercuts the breakout read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 12:50 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
The SNB's 0% hold at 07:30 UTC read as tolerance of a weaker franc and drove a 43-pip bar off the 0.8229 pre-SNB low, clearing yesterday's 0.8260 NY high. London has since printed higher lows at 0.8262, 0.8267 and 0.8271 beneath the 0.8284 session high. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.82707, 0.8262, 0.82288
Resistance: 0.82839, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8262 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the SNB impulse at risk of a deeper retracement
An M15 close above the 0.8284 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.8271 higher low tests the rising trendline
The SNB's 0% hold at 07:30 UTC drove a 43-pip bar through the Asian range and yesterday's 0.8260 prior high, extending to a 0.8281 session high. Early London has since held a 0.8262–0.8281 consolidation, with the post-SNB low at 0.8262 twice defended. RSI(14) is cooling near 67.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8262 post-SNB low and the 0.8260 prior high would put the breakout at risk and expose the fib 50% at 0.8255
A close above the 0.8281 session high brings the 0.8300 round number into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, followed by Hammack at 12:50 and Paulson at 13:00, could materially shift this read
Post-SNB breakout; tight range 0.8262–0.8281 above prior highs.
The SNB's 0% hold, with no pushback on franc weakness, sparked a 40-pip London bar from the 0.8229 session low. That move cleared the Asian high at 0.8256 and yesterday's PMI peak. Since then, price has held a 0.8262–0.8281 range, with the pullback low sitting on the 38.2% fib of the SNB leg. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8256, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8281 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8262 pullback low puts the 50% fib and 0.8256 Asian high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
A slide back under the 0.8229 session low would erase the SNB breakout
Range break above Asian range and yearly high, HL at 0.8262.
The SNB hold at 0% (07:30 UTC) sparked a 40-pip spike off the 0.8229 pre-snb low. It cleared the 0.8256 Asian high and the 0.8263 yearly high into the London open. Two dips held the 0.8262 post-snb low, so the breakout zone is being retested, while the 0.8281 session high caps for now. RSI(14) sits near 69: hot, not extreme.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8256, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8281, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8262 post-snb low puts the yearly-high breakout at risk and reopens the 0.8256 Asian high
Acceptance above the 0.8281 session high exposes the 0.8300 psych level
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson at 12:50/13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Impulsive breakout above Asian range, first pullback holding above yearly high.
The SNB's in-line 0% hold at 07:30 UTC triggered a 40-pip spike off the 0.8229 swing low, clearing the Asian range and the 0.8263 yearly high to a session high at 0.8279. Early London is retesting 0.8263, which sits near the 23.6% fib of the spike. RSI(14) has cooled to ~63 from the burst.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8260, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8279, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8260 prior high would turn the yearly-high break into a false break
Close above the 0.8279 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib near 0.8260 keeps the spike's base in focus; the 0.8229 swing low is the full-retrace marker
SNB press conference under way; tone on FX intervention can shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson 12:50–13:00 UTC could materially move the pair
The SNB decision at 07:30 UTC lifted USD/CHF about 40 pips off the 0.8229 pre-snb low. The move cleared the Asian range, the 0.8260 prior high and the 0.8263 yearly high, and printed a 0.8279 snb high. Early London is consolidating just under that high with RSI(14) near 68, while the SNB presser is still in progress.
Support: 0.82603, 0.82539, 0.82288
Resistance: 0.82791, 0.8300
What it said to watch
SNB press conference and Williams remarks in progress; either can extend or unwind the spike
Failure to hold the 0.8260 prior high on an M15 close would put the breakout read at risk
M15 close below the 0.8254 fib 50% would signal the spike is unwinding toward the pre-snb low
M15 close above the 0.8279 snb high opens the 0.8300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the next USD-side risk
Breakout above Asian range and yearly high, consolidating near highs.
The 07:30 UTC SNB decision sent USD/CHF about 40 pips off the 0.8229 London session low. The move cleared the asian high at 0.8256, Wednesday's 0.8260 peak and the 0.8263 yearly high before printing a 0.8279 spike high, and early London trade is holding just beneath it. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR has expanded to about 9 pips; the 38.2% fib of the spike sits at 0.8260, overlapping the old highs.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8256, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8279, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8263 yearly high puts the asian high at 0.8256 (50% of the SNB spike fib) back in play
Close above the 0.8279 spike high opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold 0.8256 would unwind most of the breakout toward the 0.8229 session low
SNB press conference at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) is the next USD-side risk
07:46 UTC
Range, sharp reversal off the London low · RSI 55 · price 0.82463
Lower highs through Asia; London broke the Asian low, then reversed on the SNB bar.
London open broke the 0.8239 Asian low and reached a 0.8229 London low. The 07:30 UTC SNB decision bar then rejected it with a 17-pip range back to 0.8246. Price is now pressing the Asia lower-highs line and the 0.8248 pre-London high, with the 0.8256 Asian high and Wednesday's 0.8260 prior high above.
Support: 0.82391, 0.82288
Resistance: 0.82484, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
SNB press conference at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could reverse this bar's move in either direction
M15 close above the 0.8248 pre-ldn high breaks the Asia lower-highs line and opens the 0.8256 asian high, then the 0.8260 prior high
Return below the 0.8239 asian low turns the reversal into a failed bounce and brings the 0.8229 london low back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) is the next USD-side risk
Lower highs from 0.8260; Asian range low broken at London open.
The post-PMI spike to the 0.8260 pmi high has unwound in a string of lower highs, the latest lower high at 0.8248. London open broke the 0.8239 asian low and printed a 0.8231 session low minutes before the SNB decision. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and ATR sits under 5 pips ahead of the release.
Support: 0.82311, 0.8224, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8239, 0.82484, 0.82603
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could reset the intraday structure outright
A close back above the 0.8239 asian low turns the range break into a false break
A move through 0.8248 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8231 session low exposes the 0.8224 pre-pmi base and the 0.8220 round number
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risks
07:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.82415
Lower highs inside Asian range, early-London low reclaimed.
The US PMI beat lifted the pair from 0.8230 to a 0.8260 prior high yesterday. Asia then printed lower highs from the 0.8256 Asian high to the 0.8248 swing high. The 06:00 UTC drop broke the 0.8239 Asian low and tagged 0.8234, forming a double low with yesterday's post-PMI dip, and that low has since been reclaimed to 0.8241 ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8256, 0.8260
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could reset this range; ATR near 4 pips understates event risk
M15 close back below 0.8234 double low turns the false break into a lower-low
M15 close above 0.8248 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8256 Asian high
Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) are the USD-side follow-through
07:01 UTC
Range, drifting lower from post-PMI high · RSI 46 · price 0.82415
Lower highs through Asia; early-Europe sweep below Asian low reclaimed.
The pullback from the post-PMI prior high at 0.8260 has built lower highs through Asia. An early-Europe dip broke the Asian low at 0.8239 and swept to the 0.8234 swing low, matching Wednesday's late-session low, before price reclaimed the range into London open. Price is chopping near 0.8242 under the lower-high trendline ahead of the SNB, with ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8256, 0.8260
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the inflation-forecast and intervention wording are the swing factors
An M15 close below the 0.8234 swing low breaks the twice-tested floor and extends the lower-high sequence
An M15 close above the 0.8248 lower high breaks the trendline and exposes the 0.8256 Asian high and 0.8260 prior high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC is a second catalyst for the USD side
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range low broken at 06:00 UTC.
The 06:00 UTC bar broke the Asian range low at 0.8239, and price is now pressing yesterday's swing low at 0.8234. That also sits near the 61.8% retrace of the PMI rally from 0.8224 to 0.8260. The Asian session printed a chain of lower highs from 0.8256 down to 0.8248 as CHF firmed into today's SNB decision.
Support: 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82391, 0.82484, 0.82562
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low opens the path to the 0.8224 pre-PMI low
An M15 close back above the 0.8239 Asian low negates the range break, with the 0.8248 lower high next overhead
A reclaim of the 0.8256 Asian high breaks the Asia lower-highs sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk
06:31 UTC
Range broken lower, lower highs since 0.8260 · RSI 40 · price 0.82374
Asian range 0.8239–0.8256 broken at London open; testing yesterday's post-PMI swing low.
The London open bar broke the 0.8239 Asian low and dropped to 0.8235. That is a retest of yesterday's post-PMI swing low at 0.8234, as USD's PMI-driven rally paused ahead of the SNB. Lower highs from the 0.8260 prior high still cap the tape, and RSI(14) is near 40.
Support: 0.82341, 0.82241, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.82391, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and presser at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Williams speaks at 08:10 UTC
M15 close back above the 0.8239 Asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8234 swing low exposes the 0.8224 pre-PMI low, then the 0.8220 round number
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8256 Asian high puts the 0.8260 prior high and the 0.8263 yearly high back in view
06:16 UTC
Flat intraday, range-bound after Asia fade · RSI 52 · price 0.82459
Inside Asian range 0.8239–0.8256, twin lows at 0.8239.
London open finds USDCHF mid-way through the Asian range at 0.8239–0.8256. Asia faded from the 0.8256 asian high, and buyers stepped in twice at the 0.8239 asian low. Price is now on a flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 0.8245 with RSI(14) at 52, holding most of yesterday's PMI-driven USD gains that capped at 0.8260, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8248, 0.8256, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8248 bounce high completes the twin-low base and opens the 0.8256 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8239 asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8234 ny low
A push through the 0.8263 yearly high breaks the multi-session cap; Williams at 08:10 UTC and claims at 12:30 UTC add USD-side risk
Asian range 0.8239–0.8256, lower highs, flat lows.
The hot US PMI beat drove a spike from 0.8224 to the 0.8260 prior high during NY hours. The move has since been capped by lower highs through the Asia session. The Asian low at 0.8239 held twice near the 61.8% fib of that move, and price now sits mid-range near the EMAs ahead of London open, with ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could break the Asian range in either direction
M15 close below the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 0.8234 swing low and a deeper fib retrace
Close above the 0.8256 Asian high reopens the 0.8260 prior high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs off Asian high into a flat 0.8239 floor.
The PMI spike held gains through NY, but supply capped at the 0.8260 ny high. Asia has since printed lower highs off the 0.8256 asian high, pressing price onto the 0.8239 asian low, which has held twice since 04:15 UTC. Price sits below EMA20/50 in a tight ~3-pip ATR ahead of the SNB decision, which lands before London open.
Support: 0.82391, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82461, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low breaks the double-tested floor and exposes the 0.8234 ny low
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8246 swing high neutralises the Asian drift, with the 0.8256 asian high above
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk; the 0.8260 ny high and the 0.8263 yearly high sit overhead
Asian lower highs compressing into a 0.8239–0.8246 box at the 50% retrace.
The post-PMI leg stalled at the 0.8260 ny high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. Late Asia has since printed lower highs from the 0.8256 asian high and is now sitting on the 50% retrace of the PMI leg fib near 0.8242, with the 0.8239 asian low tested twice and holding. RSI(14) sits near 39 and ATR is only about 3 pips ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.82391, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82461, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low puts the 61.8% retrace near 0.8238 and the 0.8234 ny low in play
A close above the 0.8246 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8256 asian high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risks to the range
The hot US PMIs lifted the pair from 0.8236 to a 0.8260 session high in NY, with a dip to the 0.8234 ny swing low into the close. Asia has printed lower highs from the 0.8256 asian high and is now compressing just above the 0.8239 asian low ahead of the SNB, with ATR near 3.4 pips and RSI(14) at 40.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8256, 0.8260
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8234 ny swing low
Reclaiming the 0.8246 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence, with 0.8256 asian high above
SNB decision 07:30 UTC and press conference 08:00 UTC could expand the range well beyond current ATR
A break of the 0.8260 session high brings the 0.8263 yearly high into play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are further USD-side risk today
Lower highs since the 0.8260 PMI high; Asian range 0.8239–0.8256.
The strong US PMI beats drove a NY spike to a 0.8260 pmi high. Asia then printed lower highs at 0.8256 and 0.8255 under a falling trendline before slipping to a 0.8239 asian low. Price sits near the 50% of the pmi leg fib at 0.8242 ahead of London, below the 0.8246 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR tight at ~3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8256, 0.8260
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8234 swing low and the 61.8% of the pmi leg fib near 0.8238
A close above the 0.8246 bounce high and the falling trendline reopens the 0.8256 asian high and 0.8260 pmi high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, are the next USD risks
04:46 UTC
Sideways after PMI spike, soft drift in Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.82434
Post-PMI range 0.8234–0.8260; Asian lower highs.
USD/CHF is holding the range it built after yesterday's PMI beat. In late Asia it sits near the 50% retracement of the PMI leg at 0.8243, after lower highs off the 0.8256 Asian high gave way to a dip to the 0.8239 Asian low. Price is just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR under 4 pips, compressed ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.82391, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and 08:00 UTC presser could break the Asian range in either direction
Break of the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8234 ny swing low and the 61.8% level of the PMI leg fib
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high reopens the 0.8260 ny high, with the 0.8263 yearly high just beyond
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC add USD-side event risk
Lower highs inside the post-PMI range, holding near the 50% fib.
USD/CHF is still digesting the PMI-driven leg to the 0.8260 NY high. The lower-highs line is capping price, with a rejection at the 0.8256 Asian high. The late-Asia dip to the 0.8239 Asian low held near the 50% fib of that move, while RSI(14) sits around 42 and price trades just under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read at London open
A close below the 0.8239 asian low and the 61.8% fib (~0.8238) exposes the 0.8234 swing low
A close above the 0.8256 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8260 ny high and 0.8263 yearly high into view
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, then jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, are the USD-side risk
Range 0.8234–0.8260 since NY, lower highs through Asia.
The strong US PMIs lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8224 area in NY to a 0.8260 NY high. It has since held a range down to the 0.8234 NY swing low, and highs are stepping lower on the lower-highs line. Asia capped at the 0.8256 Asian high before a dip to the 0.8239 Asian low, near the 61.8% of the PMI leg. Price is steadying at 0.8245 below both EMAs in late Asia, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR about 4 pips ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could break the range either way
M15 close below the 0.8239 Asian low exposes the 0.8234 NY swing low and the range floor
Close above the 0.8256 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8260 NY high and 0.8263 yearly high into play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC can extend any SNB-driven move
04:02 UTC
Sideways, soft lower highs through Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.82446
Post-PMI range 0.8234–0.8260; Asia printing lower highs off 0.8256.
Late Asia session: rejection at the 0.8256 asian high was followed by a lower high at 0.8255 and a slide to the 0.8239 asian low, with price now retracing toward the 38.2% fib near 0.8246. Price is still inside the range set after yesterday's PMI beat, between the 0.8234 ny low and the 0.8260 ny high. ATR is compressed near 4.4 pips ahead of the SNB decision.
Support: 0.8239, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and presser at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the asian lower highs line and 0.8256 asian high puts the 0.8260 ny high and 0.8263 yearly high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8239 asian low exposes the 0.8234 ny low and the range floor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are USD-side risk
Asian lower highs, price at the 0.8239 low / 50% fib.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted the pair from the 0.8224 pmi low to a 0.8260 ny high. The Asia session met rejection at 0.8256 and 0.8255, forming lower highs along the trendline, and has slid back to the 0.8239 asian low, which matches the 17:00 UTC low and sits at the 50% fib of the PMI leg. RSI(14) is at 36, soft but not stretched, and ATR is only about 4.5 pips ahead of London.
Support: 0.82391, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82465, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8239 asian low takes out the 61.8% fib at 0.8238 and exposes the 0.8234 ny swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8246 38.2 fib and the lower-high trendline near 0.8255 would negate the pullback read
Loss of the 0.8224 pmi low would erase the full PMI leg
SNB decision 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
A move through the 0.8256 asian high and 0.8260 ny high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Asian lower high at 0.8255 under 0.8256; fresh session low 0.8240.
Late Asia session. After rejection at the 0.8256 Asian high and a lower high at 0.8255, price slid to a fresh session low at 0.8240, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 36. The dip sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of yesterday's PMI leg, which ran from the 0.8224 pre-PMI low to the 0.8260 day high. The 0.8234 swing low is the next reference below.
Support: 0.8240, 0.82341, 0.82241
Resistance: 0.82547, 0.82562, 0.82603
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.8240 session low exposes the 0.8234 swing low and the 61.8% PMI-leg retracement
A break under 0.8234 puts the 0.8224 pre-PMI low back in play and undermines the post-PMI range
A recovery above the 0.8255 lower high and 0.8256 Asian high reopens the 0.8260 day high, with the 0.8263 yearly high just beyond
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the next USD-side risks
03:16 UTC
Sideways after PMI breakout, Asia fading · RSI 38 · price 0.82415
0.8234–0.8260 range; Asia lower highs, now at range low.
The hot US PMIs lifted USD/CHF out of its pre-NY range, peaking at the 0.8260 session high before settling into a 0.8234–0.8260 band. Asia was rejected twice below the 0.8256 Asian high and is now at the 0.8241 Asian low, sitting on the 50% fib of the PMI leg with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8241 Asian low exposes the 0.8234 swing low; losing that opens the 0.8224 pmi low
Recovery above the 0.8256 Asian high puts the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high back in play
SNB decision 07:30 UTC and presser 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC are further event risk
03:02 UTC
Range after PMI spike, Asia fading · RSI 37 · price 0.82415
Lower highs in Asia, testing rollover low inside 0.8234–0.8260 range.
The US PMI beat lifted USDCHF off the 0.8226 pre-PMI low into a 0.8234–0.8260 range. Asia was capped at the 0.8256 Asian high, then set a lower high at 0.8255. Price is now testing the 0.8241 rollover low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the PMI leg, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.82411, 0.82341, 0.82264
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8241 rollover low opens the 0.8234 NY swing low.
A reclaim of the 0.8256 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.8260 NY high and 0.8263 yearly high back in play.
The SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and press conference at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC; losing 0.8234 exposes the 0.8226 pre-PMI low.
Post-PMI range 0.8234–0.8260; mid-Asia compression between rising lows and lower highs.
USD/CHF has held the hot US PMI jump from the 0.8224 pre-PMI low but boxed into 0.8234–0.8260 since. The Asia session is coiling inside a 0.8245–0.8256 Asian range below the NY high, with rising lows meeting lower highs. Price sits on the rising-lows line near the Asian low, RSI(14) flat at 48 and ATR compressed to ~4 pips ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8234, 0.8224
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision 07:30 UTC and 08:00 UTC press conference are likely to resolve the 0.8245–0.8256 Asian range
M15 close below the Asian low at 0.8245 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the NY low at 0.8234
Acceptance above the lower-highs line and the 0.8260 NY high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC add USD-side event risk
Tight Asian range 0.8245–0.8256 inside the wider NY range 0.8234–0.8260.
The hot US PMI beat drove a leg higher during NY hours to the 0.8260 NY high. Price then dipped to the 0.8234 NY swing low late in the session, and has since held above the PMI leg fib 38.2% near 0.8247. Asia is ranging 0.8245–0.8256, capped at the asian high, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.82451, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high exposes the 0.8260 NY high and the 0.8263 yearly high
Failure to hold the 0.8245 asian low reopens the 0.8234 NY swing low, below the PMI leg fib 61.8%
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing inside a tight Asian range · RSI 52 · price 0.82492
Higher lows from the 0.8234 NY low; Asia boxed 0.8241–0.8256 below the 0.8260 prior high.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC lifted the pair from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 prior high before a NY pullback to the 0.8234 ny low. Late Asia is compressing between the 0.8241 asian low and 0.8256 asian high, hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR near 3.8 pips ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.82451, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and presser at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high puts the 0.8260 prior high and the 0.8263 yearly high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8245 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8241 asian low, then the 0.8234 ny low
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC add USD event risk into London/NY
The hot US PMI beat drove a NY spike to the 0.8260 day high, which faded to the 0.8234 NY low before a steady recovery along rising lows. The Asia session has held a 0.8241 asian low to 0.8256 asian high range, and price is pinned near a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 53, just under the 0.8263 yearly high ahead of the SNB decision.
Support: 0.82451, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high and 0.8260 day high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8245 swing low and rising lows line exposes the 0.8241 asian low, then the 0.8234 ny low
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Sideways after PMI-driven breakout · RSI 52 · price 0.82493
0.8241–0.8260 range since NY high; Asia compressing inside.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke price out of 0.8224 to a 0.82603 NY high. The pair has since held a 0.8241–0.8260 box, with an early NY-evening dip to the 0.82341 NY swing low bought back. Mid-Asia, price is compressed between the 0.82451 Asian low and a rejected 0.82562 Asian high, near the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib, with RSI(14) ~52 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.82451, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision 07:30 UTC and press conference 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read around the London open
M15 close above the 0.82603 NY high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Loss of the 0.82411 rollover low opens the 50–61.8% zone of the PMI leg fib toward the 0.82341 NY swing low
Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC add USD-side event risk
01:31 UTC
Sideways after PMI-driven leg higher · RSI 48 · price 0.82459
Asian range 0.8242–0.8256 inside the post-PMI 0.8234–0.8260 band.
The hot US PMI beat lifted USD/CHF from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 session high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. Early Asia saw a rejection at the 0.8256 asian high, and price is back mid-range at the 38.2% retracement of the PMI leg, with lower highs capping. No setup in play ahead of the SNB.
Support: 0.8242, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and presser at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8242 asian low exposes the 0.8234 ny swing low near the 61.8% retracement
M15 close above the 0.8260 session high puts the 0.8263 yearly high in play
Williams at 08:10 UTC and US claims at 12:30 UTC are further event risk
01:16 UTC
Sideways after a PMI-driven push higher · RSI 55 · price 0.82491
Tight Asian range capped below the NY high.
The US flash PMI beat lifted the pair from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 NY high before it pulled back to a 0.8234 NY swing low. Since the rollover gap low at 0.8241, price has ground higher into a narrow Asian range of 0.8248–0.8256, sitting near the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR is compressed to about 3.6 pips ahead of the SNB decision.
Support: 0.82477, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high puts the 0.8260 ny high and the 0.8263 yearly high back in play
Loss of the 0.8248 asian low opens the 0.8241 gap low, then the 0.8234 ny swing low
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and presser at 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read; FX-intervention wording is the swing factor
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC adds USD-side event risk during the London open
01:02 UTC
Sideways after PMI-driven rally · RSI 53 · price 0.82491
Tight Asian range 0.8241–0.8256 below the 0.8260 day high.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove USDCHF from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 day high. The NY pullback retraced roughly 70% of the PMI leg to the 0.8234 ny swing low before recovering. Asia is compressing in a 15-pip band between the 0.8241 asian low and the 0.8256 asian high, with the 0.8246 asia pivot holding on a rising support line, price hugging the ema20 and RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 0.82465, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82562, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high and 0.8260 day high exposes the 0.8263 yearly high
Break of the 0.8246 asia pivot and rising support shifts focus to the 0.8241 asian low
Loss of the 0.8234 ny swing low would retrace most of the PMI leg
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt risks rejection below the yearly high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC add USD-side risk to the range
The Asia session has ground higher from the 0.8241 rollover low in a chain of higher lows and is now pressing the 0.8255 Asian high, just below the 0.8260 session high set after Wednesday's blowout US flash PMIs lifted the pair through 0.8240. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips in thin Asian trade, with the 0.8263 yearly high only 1 pip above the session high.
Support: 0.82466, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82553, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 Asian high exposes the 0.8260 session high and the 0.8263 yearly high
Loss of the 0.8247 Asian shelf and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.8241 rollover low back in play, with the 0.8234 swing low below
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Post-PMI uptrend, now grinding higher in thin Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.82521
Rising lows off 0.8234 NY low, pressing 0.8253 prior highs.
The US PMI beat in the NY session lifted USD/CHF to a 0.8260 day high before a flush to the 0.8234 NY low. Rising lows since have carried price back to the 0.8253 prior highs early in the Asia session, with the Asian range so far 0.8241–0.8253.
Support: 0.82477, 0.82411, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82533, 0.82603, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 prior highs reopens the 0.8260 day high and the 0.8263 yearly high
Break of the 0.8248 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.8241 asia low
Loss of the 0.8234 NY low would undo the post-PMI structure
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (~7h), press conference 08:00, could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Post-PMI uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.82482
Tight Asian range below NY session high.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove the PMI leg from 0.8224 to a 0.8260 session high. It was rejected just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high and pulled back to the 0.8234 swing low after the 5-year auction. The early Asia session is compressing in a 0.8241–0.8253 Asian range, with price sitting on the EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8253 asian high reopens the 0.8260 session high and 0.8263 yearly high
Failure to hold the 0.8241 asian low exposes the 0.8234 swing low and the 0.8224 base of the PMI leg
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC (press conference 08:00) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC adds risk
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below NY high · RSI 46 · price 0.82482
Higher lows intact; early-Asia range 0.8241–0.8253 under the 0.8260 NY high.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC drove USD/CHF to a 0.8260 NY high, just shy of the 0.8263 yearly high. The pullback held the 0.8234 swing low at the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. Early Asia is ranging 0.8241–0.8253 with price hugging EMA20, RSI(14) at 46 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.8241, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8253, 0.8260, 0.8263
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8253 range top reopens the 0.8260 NY high and 0.8263 yearly high
Break of the 0.8241 range floor exposes the 0.8234 swing low at the 61.8% of the London-NY leg; a close below it breaks the higher-low chain
SNB decision at 07:30 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read