21:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 74 · price 0.82981
HH/HL chain from the Aug 20 low; Sep breakout above the July high holding.
USDCHF has been in an uptrend since the Aug 20 low at 0.7950. The Sep 16 break of the 0.8207 july high held on the Sep 22 higher low at 0.8183 (swing low), and price has since extended to 0.8299. The SNB's softer FX-intervention language and Fed October hike odds above 70% widened the rate gap behind the move. Price sits above a rising EMA(50) after four straight weekly gains, with RSI in the mid-70s (overbought) right under the 0.8300 psych level, and the 0.8264 sep high is now the first support.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8207, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8330, 0.8400
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8305–0.8330 cap zone opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
- A close back below the 0.8264 sep high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 0.8207 july high
- Loss of the 0.8183 swing low and the rising support from Aug 20 would break the HH/HL chain
- Swiss CPI (Thu Oct 1) and US JOLTS, ADP and NFP this week could materially shift this read via Fed hike odds