21:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 71 · price 0.83208
HH/HL chain from the Aug 20 low; July high range top broken.
USDCHF has built a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence from the Aug 20 low at 0.7950. The Sep 16 push cleared the 0.8207 july high that had capped the pair since late June. The Sep 24 SNB dovish hold and hawkish Fed repricing added a further leg, with the Sep 22 swing low at 0.8183 aligning with the 38.2% fib of the move. Price now sits just under the 0.8339 16-mo high after three straight weekly advances, with RSI near 71 in overbought territory and both EMAs rising underneath.
Support: 0.8264, 0.8207, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8339, 0.8400, 0.8500
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8339 16-mo high extends the uptrend toward the 0.8400 round number, with the 0.8500 psych level flagged on a further Fed hike
- A pullback that holds the sep 16 high at 0.8264 keeps the breakout-retest structure intact
- A close back below the july high at 0.8207 would put the price back inside the old range
- A break of the 0.8183 swing low (38.2% fib) and the rising trendline would break the higher-low chain
- US Core PCE and ADP (Wed), Swiss CPI (Thu 06:30 UTC) and Friday NFP could materially shift this read