Higher highs and higher lows since Monday open; shallow pause under 0.8362.
USDCHF has printed higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 0.8278 open, and each daily dip has held above the prior day's low along a rising trendline. The soft PCE print only briefly knocked price to the 0.8321 pce low during Wednesday's NY session. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a fresh week high at 0.8362, just above the 0.8359 Tuesday high, and price is now holding in the Asian session above EMA(20) near 0.8348 with RSI(14) around 63.
Support: 0.83477, 0.8329, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83585, 0.83617, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8362 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.8400 round number
Swiss CPI 06:30 UTC: a print at or above ~1.2% y/y could pull price back to the ema20 or the rising trendline near 0.8329, where the 38.2% retrace of the week impulse also sits
Failure to hold the 0.8321 pce low breaks the rising trendline and the week's higher-low structure
ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC and Williams at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open, marginal new week high.
USD/CHF has climbed about 85 pips from Monday's 0.8278 open. Every dip since has formed a higher low, and pullbacks through Tuesday and Wednesday were held above the 0.8308 tue low. In Wednesday's NY session the soft PCE print knocked price to the 0.8321 pce low, but the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats reversed it and price reclaimed the ema20 near 0.8346. That rally carried to a fresh week high at 0.8362, only 3 pips above Tuesday's 0.8358 prior high, with RSI(14) near 64 against the ~70 reading at that earlier peak.
Support: 0.8346, 0.83209, 0.8308
Resistance: 0.83585, 0.83617, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8358 prior high would mark the week-high push as a false break
Loss of the ema20 around 0.8346 and then the 0.8321 pce low would break the higher-lows trendline sequence
Acceptance above the 0.8362 week high opens the path toward the 0.8400 psych level
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller Thu 14:00 UTC are the main USD risks. The 0.8308 tue low sits near the 61.8% retracement of the week impulse
20:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 67 · price 0.83579
Higher lows since Monday, retest of Tuesday's high.
USDCHF has built higher lows since Monday's 0.8278 weekly open. The tue low at 0.8308 and today's pce low at 0.8321 both held above the prior swing, and the Wednesday low sits near the 50% retracement of the week impulse. The soft core PCE print knocked the pair to 0.8321 in the first hour of NY, but ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats drove a recovery through NY hours to a new week high at 0.8362. Price now sits back at Tuesday's 0.8358 peak with RSI(14) near 67, well above the rising ema20 around 0.8346.
Support: 0.8346, 0.83209, 0.8308
Resistance: 0.83617, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8362 week high confirms the break of Tuesday's peak and opens the 0.8400 round number
Slip back below the ema20 near 0.8346 turns the retest into a false break
Break of the 0.8321 pce low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the tue low at 0.8308
Fedspeak tonight (Goolsbee, Kashkari), Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC and US ISM Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below the week high · RSI 62 · price 0.8354
Higher lows since Monday; 0.8321–0.8358 range under the 16-month high.
USD/CHF has printed higher lows since Monday's 0.8278 open. Tuesday's NY push set the 0.8358 week high, a 16-month top, and Williams' dovish remarks then capped price in a 0.8321–0.8358 consolidation. Today's soft core PCE dipped price to the 0.8321 pce low in the first hour of NY, holding inside the 38.2–50% zone of the week impulse fib; beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then lifted price back above ema20 near 0.8345, and it is now retesting the week high with RSI(14) near 62, below Tuesday's peak reading.
Support: 0.8345, 0.8321, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8358 week high breaks the consolidation, with the 0.8400 round number the next reference
Rejection at 0.8358 raises double top risk; a close back below ema20 at 0.8345 returns price to the middle of the range
Loss of the 0.8321 pce low and the higher-low trendline exposes 0.8300 psych and a deeper week impulse fib retracement
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since weekly open; two-day range 0.8321–0.8358 with price pressing the top.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 80 pips from Monday's 0.8278 weekly open on a trendline of higher lows. London drove the gains on Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday's NY session set the 0.8358 week high before Williams' dovish remarks knocked price back to 0.8332. Today's soft core PCE dip found demand at 0.8321, the PCE low, near the 50% retracement of the week's move. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI then lifted price back above EMA20 (~0.8344) in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 59 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.8344, 0.83209, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83585, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8358 week high breaks the two-day range top and brings the 0.8400 round number into view
Failure to hold the 0.8321 PCE low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes 0.8300 psych
Repeated H1 closes back below EMA20 at ~0.8344 would return price to mid-range
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday are the next major risk for the range
Higher lows intact; tight range under 0.8359 after Mon–Tue impulse.
USD/CHF rallied about 82 pips from Monday's 0.8276 low near the week open to a 0.8359 week high in Tuesday's NY session. Dovish Williams comments then drove a sharp one-bar pullback, and Wednesday has held a 0.8321–0.8354 band above the 38.2% retrace of the Mon–Tue rally. Today's soft core PCE print spiked price to the 0.8321 day low, but the ADP and GDP beats reclaimed the move in full. That keeps the higher lows trendline intact and puts price back above EMA(20) near 0.8341, with RSI(14) at 58 cooled from Tuesday's stretch.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8321, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8354
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8359 week high extends the uptrend to fresh 16-month highs
Loss of the 0.8321 day low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 50% retrace near 0.8317, then the 0.8300 round number
Holding EMA(20) near 0.8341 on pullbacks keeps the consolidation read intact below the 0.8354 day high
Fed speakers tonight, Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open; 0.8321–0.8358 range since Tuesday's peak.
USDCHF rose about 80 pips on the Monday–Tuesday impulse, from the 0.8276 weekly open to a 0.8358 week high in Tuesday's NY session. It has since held a 0.8321–0.8358 consolidation, with dips contained between the 38.2% and 50% retracements. Today's core PCE miss drove a whipsaw to the 0.8321 pce low on rising support. Strong GDP and Chicago PMI prints then lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.8341 and to a 0.8354 day high, with RSI(14) near 58 and well off Tuesday's peak.
Support: 0.8341, 0.83209, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83542, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8358 week high breaks the consolidation and extends the Monday–Tuesday impulse
Failure to hold the 0.8321 pce low and rising support exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 50% retracement
Repeated H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 0.8341 would shift the read toward a deeper range test
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then Swiss CPI (06:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) Thursday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact, ranging 0.8321–0.8358 since Tue.
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8278 weekly open to a 16-month week high at 0.8358 in Tuesday's NY session, extending the post-SNB dovish CHF selling. Since then price has held a 0.8321–0.8358 consolidation with the range top slightly lower. The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC set the 0.8321 pce low, but hot GDP and Chicago PMI helped absorb the dip. Price has recovered above the H1 ema20 near 0.8340 into today's 0.8354 session high, with RSI(14) mid-range around 55 and the rising higher-low trendline still intact.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8321, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8358
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8358 week high breaks the range top and resumes the uptrend
Failure to hold the 0.8321 pce low and the higher-low trendline would expose the 0.8300 psych pivot
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later today could shift the read after the PCE miss
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC are the next structural catalysts
14:02 UTC
Uptrend from weekly open, stalling below week high · RSI 54 · price 0.83454
Higher lows since Monday; Wednesday range 0.8321–0.8348 below the 0.8359 week high.
USDCHF climbed steadily from Monday's 0.8278 weekly open to a 16-month week high at 0.8359 in Tuesday's NY session. A sharp one-bar rejection and Williams' dovish remarks then turned the pair into a sideways range. The soft PCE print at NY open briefly dragged it to a 0.8321 day low, which held above the 38.2% fib of the week's rise. Price has since recovered through the ema20 near 0.8339 to sit just under the 0.8348 day high, with RSI(14) back around 54.
Support: 0.8339, 0.8321, 0.8308
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8359
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8348 day high puts the 0.8359 week high back in play; a break there extends the weekly uptrend
Failure below the 0.8321 day low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the tue low at 0.8308 near the 61.8% fib
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later today, then Swiss CPI (06:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) Thursday, could materially shift this read
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 would turn the range read toward a deeper pullback of the week's rise
Lower highs off 0.8359, holding above rising trendline.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8278 weekly open to a 0.8359 week high in Tuesday's NY session, extending the CHF weakness that followed last week's dovish SNB, with Monday's London leg doing most of the lifting. Since then the pair has compressed into a 0.8321–0.8348 band with lower highs. Today's 12:00 UTC bar, spanning the ADP beat and the scheduled PCE window, swung 27 pips both ways and left price just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s. Wednesday's dips are holding the fib 38.2 retracement of the week's rally and the rising trendline, with the Monday low below.
Support: 0.83245, 0.83209, 0.83039
Resistance: 0.83483
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8321 today low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.8304 Monday low
H1 close above the 0.8348 lower high ends the lower-highs sequence and brings the 0.8359 week high back into play
Follow-through from core PCE and the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC and Friday NFP are the next scheduled catalysts for the range
Higher lows intact; compression under 0.8347–0.8358.
USDCHF has climbed about 80 pips from the 0.8278 weekly open. The Monday and Tuesday London-NY sessions drove the move, which peaked at the 0.8358 16m high on Tuesday's NY session. Williams' no-urgency comments knocked price back, and the London dip today found demand at the 0.8324 wed low. That low sits on the 38.2% retracement and the rising higher-lows line. Price has since reclaimed the ema20 near 0.8340 and is pressing the 0.8347 wed high, with RSI(14) back to the mid-50s after cooling from overbought.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83242, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83475, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8358 16m high extends the uptrend and breaks the consolidation
Close back below the ema20 at 0.8340 returns price to the 0.8324 wed low
Loss of the 0.8324 wed low and the higher-lows line opens the 50% retracement near 0.8317
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) within the hour could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC and Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC are the CHF-side risk
Monday–Tuesday higher lows; now a tight range between 0.8324 twin lows and a 0.8347 lower high.
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.8278 and climbed through Monday's London and NY sessions, reaching a 16-month week high at 0.8358 in Tuesday's NY session on hawkish-Fed pricing. Williams' dovish remarks then drove a 25-pip rejection off the high. Since then price has compressed between twin lows near 0.8324, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week's rally, and a lower high at 0.8347, with RSI(14) back near 52 and price sitting on the ema20 at 0.8337.
Support: 0.8337, 0.8324, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read within the next two bars
H1 close below the 0.8324 twin lows breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8300 round number
H1 close above the 0.8347 lower high and the lower-highs line puts the 0.8358 week high back in play
SNB Quarterly Bulletin (13:00 UTC) and Swiss CPI (Thu 06:30 UTC) are the CHF-side risks to the range
10:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, correcting below the high · RSI 48 · price 0.8334
Mon–Tue impulse to 0.8358, lower-high range since.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8278 weekly open through Monday and Tuesday on hawkish-Fed pricing. It printed a 16-month high (16m high) at 0.8358 during NY hours before Williams' no-urgency remarks drove a 25-pip drop into Tuesday's close. Since then Wednesday has held a 0.8324–0.8347 range, with the wed high marking a lower high along a lower-highs line, price slipping just under ema20 near 0.8337 but above EMA(50), and RSI(14) cooling to ~48; the London dip to the wed low at 0.8324 probed the 38.2% level of the weekly advance fib.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8324 wed low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8317, then 0.8300 psych
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 0.8347 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 16m high back into view
SNB Quarterly Bulletin 13:00 UTC today and Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC are CHF-side risk
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from week high · RSI 41 · price 0.83263
Lower high at 0.8347, 0.8332 shelf broken.
USD/CHF climbed about 80 pips from Monday's 0.8278 open to a 16-month week high at 0.8358 in Tuesday's NY session, driven by Fed-SNB divergence. The rally was rejected there, and Wednesday's Asian bounce stalled at 0.8347 for a lower high. London has since pushed price below the 0.8332 prior shelf and under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41, leaving it at the session low around the 38.2% fib of the week's advance, with the fib 50% at 0.8317 below.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8317, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8332, 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8332 prior shelf would neutralise the pullback read
Failure to hold the 0.8324 session low exposes the fib 50% near 0.8317 and the Monday low at 0.8304
A break of the lower highs line near 0.8342 and then the 0.8358 week high would resume the uptrend
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with the SNB Quarterly Bulletin following at 13:00 UTC
USDCHF rallied 80 pips from Sunday's 0.8278 weekly open to a 16-month high at 0.8358 in Tuesday's NY session. Monday's London-NY leg and Tuesday's NY push did most of the work, as Fed hike pricing met a dovish SNB. Since that peak the pair has carved lower highs inside a 0.8327–0.8347 band, with the twin lows near 0.8327 holding at the 38.2% retracement, price slipping just under EMA(20) near 0.8340 and RSI(14) resetting to the high 40s, while the rising trendline from Friday's low, now near 0.8322, still underpins the week's higher lows.
Support: 0.8327, 0.8318, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.8340, 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8327 twin lows and the rising trendline near 0.8322 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8318 tue low
Loss of the 0.8318 tue low opens the 50% retracement near 0.8315 and Monday's 0.8290 mon low
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 0.8347 Asia high breaks the lower highs and reopens the 0.8358 16m high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC), then the SNB Quarterly Bulletin (13:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC; an upside surprise is the main CHF-side risk to the uptrend
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Tuesday's high · RSI 46 · price 0.83306
Higher lows Mon–Tue, lower high since Tuesday's NY peak.
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8276 weekly open to a 0.8358 week high during NY hours Tuesday. Hawkish Fed pricing and a dovish-read SNB drove the move, which then met a 25-pip rejection within two bars. Since then price has compressed beneath a lower high at 0.8347 set in Asia. Early London has slipped under EMA(20) to test the swing low near 0.8327, which also marks the 38.2% fib of the week's leg, with EMA(50) just beneath. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s from Tuesday's overbought push.
Support: 0.83271, 0.83196, 0.8308
Resistance: 0.83378, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8327 swing low and EMA(50) opens the Monday close at 0.8320, then the Tuesday low near 0.8308 at the 61.8% fib
Reclaim of EMA(20) and a break of the 0.8347 lower high trendline puts the 0.8358 week high back in play
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC today and Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC are CHF-side risk to the structure
Higher lows intact, tight range under the 16m high.
USDCHF climbed about 80 pips from the 0.8277 weekly open to a 16m high at 0.8358 in Tuesday's NY session. London opens drove the Monday and Tuesday legs as Fed-hike repricing outweighed a strong Swiss KOF print. That high was rejected within two hours. Asia has since held a 0.8332–0.8347 range, with lower highs forming under EMA(20) and price resting on the rising trendline from Monday's lows. RSI(14) has eased to the mid-40s and the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse sits at 0.8327.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8332 range floor breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.8327
Failure to hold 0.8327 ends the higher-low sequence, with the 0.8300 round number next
Close above the 0.8347 Asian high reclaims EMA(20) and breaks the lower highs, putting the 0.8358 16m high back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC adds CHF-side risk
Higher lows since Monday; pullback held above 38.2% fib.
USD/CHF has climbed about 80 pips from the 0.8278 Sunday open to a 0.8358 week high in Tuesday's NY session. London and NY drove both Monday's and Tuesday's legs as Fed hike bets and 2004-era US yields outweighed a strong KOF print. A sharp late-NY rejection from the week high retraced to the 0.8332 swing low, which held through the Asia session along with the rising trendline from Monday. Price is back above the EMA(20) near 0.8341, RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s, and the pullback stayed above the 38.2% fib of the week impulse at 0.8327, which is also Tuesday's midday low.
Support: 0.83415, 0.83319, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83495, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8332 swing low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.8327
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8341 would turn the Asia recovery back into consolidation below the prior high
Reclaim of Tuesday's London prior high at 0.8350 reopens the 0.8358 week high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read, with the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC
Quarter-end flows around the London fix and Swiss CPI (Thu 06:30 UTC) add event risk
Higher lows since Monday open; rising line broken, 0.8332–0.8346 range under 0.8358 high.
USD/CHF has printed higher lows since Monday's 0.8278 open. The London-into-NY legs on Monday and Tuesday drove the gains as US yields held 2004-era highs and the market leaned on the dovish SNB hold, with a strong KOF print giving the franc no support. Tuesday's NY push to a 0.8358 week high came on a lower RSI(14) peak than Tuesday's London high, a bearish divergence, and the 25-pip reversal that followed broke the higher-low line from Monday. Price is now compressing in a 0.8332–0.8346 range around EMA(20) at 0.8339, with the range floor, the 38.2% fib/EMA(50) at 0.8327 and the tuesday low at 0.8308 stacked beneath.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327, 0.8308
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83585
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8346 Asia high, then the 0.8358 week high, would negate the RSI divergence and resume the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8332 range floor exposes the 38.2% fib/EMA(50) at 0.8327
A close below the 0.8308 tuesday low (61.8% retracement) breaks the week's higher-low structure
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) today could materially shift this read, alongside quarter-end flows around the London fix
SNB Quarterly Bulletin (13:00 UTC today) and Swiss CPI (Thu 06:30 UTC, f/c 1.0%) are the CHF-specific risks
Higher highs/lows since Monday; rising line broken, holding 0.8332 floor.
USD/CHF has printed higher highs and lows since the 0.8278 weekly open. London and NY sessions drove Monday's and Tuesday's legs as Fed-hike pricing and 5.2%+ US yields outweighed the JOLTS and confidence misses. A 25-pip drop late in Tuesday's NY session from the 0.8359 week high broke the higher-low line, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near 0.8338, pinned to the 0.8332 tue ny low through the Asia session with RSI(14) cooled to ~51. Below, the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse at 0.8327 coincides with Tuesday's London-NY low and EMA(50).
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8350, 0.8359
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8332 tue ny low exposes the 0.8327 38.2% fib / EMA(50) confluence
Failure to hold 0.8327 breaks the week's higher-low sequence and opens the 50% fib at 0.8317
Recovery through the 0.8346 asia high and 0.8350 london high puts the 0.8359 week high back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC today is a CHF-side risk if FX-intervention tone shifts
Higher lows since Friday; tight 0.8332–0.8346 range after week-high rejection.
USD/CHF has printed higher lows since Friday's 0.8271 base. The SNB's dovish hold and firm US yields fuelled Monday's and Tuesday's London-session advances, with the 0.8350 london high on Tuesday giving way later in the day. Tuesday's NY push to a 0.8359 week high reversed sharply, and price has since compressed between the 0.8332 ny low and the 0.8346 asia high. It sits on EMA(20), and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8325, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8350, 0.8359
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8332 ny low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.8325 and then the monday low at 0.8304
Break of the higher-low trendline from Friday (near 0.8319) would end the sequence of higher lows
H1 close above the 0.8346 asia high and the 0.8350 london high reopens the 0.8359 week high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; Swiss CPI follows Thu 06:30 UTC
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday open; pullback holding above rising trendline.
USDCHF has printed higher lows since Monday's 0.8278 weekly open, extending last Thursday's post-SNB leg as US 10Y yields above 5.2% and October Fed hike bets kept the franc heavy. Tuesday's London push to the 0.8350 london high extended in NY to a 0.8359 week high, then a sharp late-NY rejection dropped price to 0.8332. That pullback low held above the higher-low trendline and just above the 38.2% fib at 0.8327, and Asia is now flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
Support: 0.83316, 0.83271, 0.82777
Resistance: 0.83495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8332 pullback low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8327 38.2% fib
Failure to hold 0.8327 opens Monday's 0.8304 swing low, then the 0.8278 weekly open
Recovery through the 0.8350 london high puts the 0.8359 week high back in play; a close above extends the higher-high sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today, plus quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Wed 13:00 UTC) and Swiss CPI (Thu 06:30 UTC) are the CHF-side risks to the structure
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after rejection at week high · RSI 57 · price 0.83423
USD/CHF has climbed steadily from the 0.8278 weekly open, extending Thursday's SNB-driven leg from 0.8229. London sessions drove most of Monday's and Tuesday's gains as US yields and October Fed-hike pricing kept the franc heavy. Tuesday's late NY push to a 0.8358 week high was rejected sharply, and the pullback found demand at the 0.8332 pullback low, above the Monday high at 0.8327 where the 38.2% fib of the week's move sits. Price is back above EMA(20) near 0.8339, and RSI(14) around 57 has cooled from Tuesday's peak.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8345, 0.8358
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8345 Asia high puts the 0.8358 week high back in play; a clean break extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8332 pullback low exposes the Monday high / fib 38.2% confluence at 0.8327
Acceptance below 0.8327 breaks the shallow-pullback read and opens a deeper retracement toward rising support near 0.8305 and the 0.8278 weekly open
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today, plus the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Month/quarter-end flows after a strong USD month add two-way risk into the NY session
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC is the next CHF-specific catalyst