USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Post-PCE rally, now flat into Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.83551
Higher lows off 0.8321, tight 0.8354-0.8355 coil.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC made a false break below the London lows to the 0.8321 PCE low. Strong US growth data then carried a higher-low climb through the 0.8358 prior high to a 0.8362 session high. Price has since compressed around 0.8355 into the Asia session, and the post-rollover dip to the 0.8348 rollover low held at the 38.2% fib of the NY rally.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.83617
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8348 rollover low exposes a deeper retrace of the NY rally toward the 0.8321 PCE low
An M15 close above the 0.8362 session high resumes the higher-high chain; slipping back under the 0.8358 prior high keeps it a coil
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the Asia compression before London open
23:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below NY high · RSI 41 · price 0.83538
Post-PCE higher-low recovery, now tight early-Asia consolidation under 0.8362.
The soft PCE print flushed USDCHF to the 0.8321 pce low at 12:30 UTC. Growth beats then drove a higher-low recovery through the London high to a 0.8362 NY high. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.8348–0.8356 band under the asian cap. The rollover low at 0.8348 sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR has shrunk to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83556, 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 NY high extends the uptrend into fresh highs
Failure to hold the 0.8348 rollover low (38.2% of NY rally fib) exposes the 0.8341 swing low
Loss of the 0.8341 swing low breaks the post-PCE higher-low chain
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could break the Asian consolidation either side
HH/HL chain off the PCE low stalled below 0.8362; tight post-rollover range.
The soft PCE print swept the London low to a 0.8321 pce low at 12:30 UTC before growth beats drove a steady NY climb to a 0.8362 ny high. Early Asia is pinned in a 0.8354–0.8355 band after a thin rollover dip to 0.8348 found demand near the 38.2% fib of that move; RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 ny high resumes the NY higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8348 rollover low exposes the 0.8341 ny swing low and a deeper fib retrace
A move back through the 0.8321 pce low negates the post-PCE recovery
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the post-PCE low; tight hold near 0.8355 after NY close.
The soft PCE print spiked the pair to the 0.8321 pce low early in NY. Growth beats then drove a higher-low chain to a session high at 0.8362, above the 0.8358 prior high. Price was rejected there, and a thin rollover dip to the 0.8348 swing low held. The pair is back at 0.8355 with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR only ~3 pips.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8362 session high extends the higher-high chain; failure to hold above 0.8358 prior high keeps the 0.8358–0.8362 zone as a rejection zone
Break of 0.8348 swing low and the rising trendline puts the fib 50% at 0.8341 in play; loss of that opens the 0.8321 pce low
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read ahead of US ISM later in the day
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the high · RSI 53 · price 0.83553
Higher lows since the post-PCE low; tight band under the NY high.
The soft PCE release knocked USDCHF to the day low at 0.8321. Growth beats then reversed it, and NY broke the Asian high at 0.8347 before briefly clearing the 0.8358 16m high to the NY high at 0.8362. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.8350–0.8362 band above the swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8348, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8362 NY high resumes the higher-high sequence; failure to hold above the 0.8358 16m high keeps price in the band
A break of the 0.8348 swing low exposes the 0.8346 38.2% level of the NY rally fib
Swiss CPI (06:30 UTC) and US ISM with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from PCE sweep low, stalling at prior high.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a sweep below the London low to the 0.8321 pce low. Strong growth data reversed the move, and NY hours built higher lows into a 0.8362 session high, briefly clearing the 0.8358 prior high. Price has since slipped back under that level to 0.8355 after the rollover, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and price sitting just below EMA20.
Support: 0.83476, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.83617
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8358 prior high and the 0.8362 session high would extend the higher-high chain
A break of the 0.8348 rollover low exposes the 0.8341 swing low, where the 50% fib sits
A close below the 0.8341 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence and puts the 0.8321 pce low back in view
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing on Thursday could also shift the read
21:47 UTC
Uptrend since PCE low, stalling at highs · RSI 52 · price 0.8355
HH/HL chain through NY hours, flat near 0.8355 in rollover.
Soft PCE at 12:30 UTC swept price to the 0.8321 PCE low. Beats in GDP and Chicago PMI then turned it into a steady HH/HL climb during NY hours, through the 0.8358 16m high to a 0.8362 NY high. Price is now idling at 0.8355, marginally under the rising trendline in thin post-NY rollover trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8348, 0.8341, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8348 pre-PCE high breaks the NY HL chain and exposes the fib 50% at 0.8341
Close above the 0.8362 NY high extends the breakout above the 16m high; failure to hold 0.8358 marks a false break
Sustained trade below the rising trendline near 0.8356 confirms the NY climb has stalled
0.8321 PCE low is the base of the NY leg; a return there erases the post-data rally
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1% y/y) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 0.8321 day low; shallow pullback from 0.8362 session high.
The late-London spike to the 0.8321 day low reversed on the GDP/ADP/Chicago PMI beats, which outweighed the soft PCE. NY then ground out higher highs and higher lows through the 0.8358 16-month high to a 0.8362 session high. Price is at 0.8355 in thin rollover trade, right on the pullback low and only about 16% into the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~52 and sitting fractionally under EMA20.
Support: 0.8355, 0.8348, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 session high extends the HH/HL chain beyond the 16-month high
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% NY rally fib near 0.8346
Rollover prints at 0.8355 are illiquid; Asia session acceptance above or below the pullback low sets the next read
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC could shift this read; ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the larger event risk
Higher-low chain from NY low, flat near session high.
The soft PCE print knocked USDCHF to a 0.8321 day low in the first hour of NY, then the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats drove a higher-low chain through the 0.8357 prior high to a 0.8362 session high. In thin late-NY trade, price is sitting on the 0.8355 swing low, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) back to neutral at 52.
Support: 0.8355, 0.8348, 0.8341
Resistance: 0.8357, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8348 higher low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the fib 50% at 0.8341
Close above the 0.8362 session high extends the post-PCE leg
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing late NY · RSI 60 · price 0.83574
HH/HL chain from PCE low, stalling under day high.
The soft PCE print flushed price to the 0.8321 pce low early in the NY session. Strong GDP and Chicago PMI then drove a steady higher-low grind through the london high to a day high at 0.8362, above the 0.8358 16-month top. Late NY is compressing just under the day high, with the 0.8355 swing low holding and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.8355, 0.83483, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83617, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8355 swing low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8348 london high, near the 38.2% fib of the pce low–day high move
Acceptance above the 0.8362 day high extends the breakout, with 0.8400 psych the next round level
A drop back through the 0.8321 pce low would erase the post-data rally
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia and London sessions
Higher-low chain from the PCE low; tight consolidation under 0.8362 late NY.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss put in the 0.8321 pce low, then the GDP and Chicago PMI beats took over. USDCHF built higher lows through NY, cleared the 0.8348 london high and printed a 0.8362 session high. After NY, price is holding the 0.8355 micro low with RSI(14) near 59, a shallow pause inside a 41-pip leg.
Support: 0.83555, 0.83482, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83617
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8355 micro low exposes the london high at 0.8348 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8346
Close above the 0.8362 session high extends the NY higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8348 london high breaks the higher-low chain; the 0.8321 pce low is the base of the leg
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing into late NY · RSI 62 · price 0.83584
HH/HL chain from the 0.8321 post-PCE low, holding above the prior high.
The soft-PCE dip to 0.8321 at 12:30 UTC was bought as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed it. That started a steady HH/HL grind through NY hours that cleared the 0.8358 prior high and printed a 0.8362 session high. Late NY, price is holding the rising trendline just above the 0.8355 swing low, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR(14) tight at ~3.7 pips.
Support: 0.8358, 0.8355, 0.8348
Resistance: 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8355 swing low breaks the rising trendline and turns the 0.8358 breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8348 higher low exposes the fib 38.2% near 0.8346
Acceptance above the 0.8362 session high extends the HH chain
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 0.8321 PCE low; new session high at 0.8362.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC briefly undercut the London low to 0.8321 (pce low), then the GDP and Chicago PMI beats reversed it into a higher-low chain that carried NY through the 0.8358 16-month high to a 0.8362 session high. Late NY is quiet, with price holding just above the 0.8355 breakout area and the ny trendline, RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 0.8355, 0.8348, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8355 breakout and the ny trendline turns the 0.8358 break into a failed breakout
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low, near the 38.2% of the ny rally fib, breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8362 session high extends the NY uptrend into Asia
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 0.8321 NY low; rejection at 0.8362.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.8321 on soft PCE reversed as the GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. NY then printed higher lows, cleared the Asian range high at 0.8347 and pushed through the 16m high at 0.8358 to a 0.8362 session high. That high drew a rejection back to 0.8355, and late NY is holding just under 0.8358 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.8355, 0.8348, 0.8341
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 session high extends the higher-high chain beyond the 16m high
Loss of the 0.8355 rejection low turns the poke above 0.8358 into a false break
Break of the 0.8348 higher low ends the NY sequence and exposes the 50% fib at 0.8341
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), Kashkari (22:00 UTC) and Swiss CPI (06:30 UTC) could shift this read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through NY session · RSI 65 · price 0.83598
HH/HL chain from PCE low; fresh session high above 0.8358.
The soft core PCE print knocked USDCHF to a 0.8321 PCE low at 12:30 UTC. It reversed on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats, reclaimed the Asian range top at 0.8347 and pushed through the 0.8355 prior high, above the 0.8358 16-month high, to a 0.8361 session high. Late NY session is grinding up a rising trendline of higher lows, and RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched.
Support: 0.83555, 0.83481, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83611, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8355 prior high would mark a false break of the 16-month high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.8348 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib of the PCE-low rally near 0.8346
Holding above the 0.8361 session high leaves the 0.8400 round number as the next marked level
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could shift this read in thin post-NY trade
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC is the next CHF-side catalyst
19:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 60 · price 0.83558
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC data low, pressing session high.
The 12:30 UTC US data burst (soft PCE, strong GDP/Chicago PMI) swept the London low to the 0.8321 data low before reversing. NY then broke above the Asian high and pre-data top near 0.8348, stair-stepping to a 0.8357 session high at the 16-month high area. Late-NY candles have compressed, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.83481, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83572, 0.8360
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8357 session high clears the 16-month high area and puts the 0.8360 round number in play
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain; below it the 38.2% fib at 0.8343 sits near the 0.8341 ny swing low
Fed's Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) can move thin late-NY liquidity
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC Thu, ahead of London open, could shift the read
Higher-low chain since PCE sweep, pressing 16m high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss swept the London lows to the PCE low at 0.8321, before GDP and Chicago PMI beats drove a recovery through the London high at 0.8348. Late NY session is grinding higher lows along rising support off the 0.8352 NY shelf into the 0.8358 16m high, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.8352, 0.8348, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high extends the higher-high chain into fresh territory
Break of rising support and the 0.8352 NY shelf exposes the London high at 0.8348 and the fib 50% near 0.8339
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift this read; a return below the 0.8321 PCE low would undo the post-data recovery
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC low, compressing under session high.
The 12:30 UTC US data mix, with a soft PCE against GDP and Chicago PMI beats, spiked price to the ny low at 0.8321 before a reversal that built higher lows through the NY session. Late NY price is compressing in a narrow band just under the 0.8356 session high and the 0.8358 16m high, with the 0.8348 swing low holding and RSI(14) cooling to about 62.
Support: 0.83481, 0.83424, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83557, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8358 16m high breaks the multi-month top
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 near 0.8342
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the PCE low, highs compressing under 0.8358.
Soft core PCE drove a 12:30 UTC sweep of the London low to the 0.8321 pce low. The ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then turned that into a steady higher-low chain along a rising trendline, and the pair is now pressing the 0.8356 session high just under the 0.8358 16m high after London close. Bar ranges are compressing into late NY hours, with ATR(14) near 4.6 pips and RSI(14) at 67, warm but not extreme.
Support: 0.8348, 0.8341, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.83557, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high breaks the recent cap and extends the pce rally
Failure to hold the 0.8348 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.8341 higher low puts the 38.2% retracement of the pce rally near 0.8342 in play
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) is the next CHF-side risk
NY higher lows off post-PCE low; tight band under session high.
Soft core PCE dropped USD/CHF to a 0.8321 post-PCE low at 12:30 UTC. The ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a NY-session recovery through the Asian range top near 0.8347. Late NY, after London close, price is compressing in a 0.8348–0.8355 band just under the session high with RSI(14) near 62, and the 0.8358 16-month high cited in the digest sits directly overhead.
Support: 0.83481, 0.83422, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83554, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8355 session high puts the 0.8358 16m high in play
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence, exposing the 38.2% fib at 0.8342
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift this read; Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC is the next CHF risk
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 63 · price 0.8355
Higher-low chain off the NY PCE low, pressing the 16m high.
The NY-open false break to the 0.8321 PCE low was fully reversed as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. The PCE rally has since built a higher-low chain to 0.8355, a pip shy of the 0.8358 16m high, late in the NY session. RSI(14) near 63 is firm but not stretched, and the 0.8348 higher low and the rising trendline sit just below price.
Support: 0.8348, 0.8341, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8358, 0.8360
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high and the 0.8360 round number extends the uptrend into fresh highs
Failure to hold the 0.8348 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the NY higher-low chain
A loss of the 0.8341 swing low, at the 38.2% of the PCE rally fib, points to a deeper retrace toward the 0.8321 pce low
Fed Cook at 19:25 UTC, then Goolsbee and Kashkari, could shift October-hike pricing and this read
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC Thu (f/c 1.0% y/y) could move CHF into the London open
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 63 · price 0.83539
Higher lows since the PCE low, flat top at 0.8355.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC swept the London low to the 0.8321 PCE low, then ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats reversed it through the Asian high. Late in the NY session, price is building higher lows beneath a flat 0.8355 session high, just shy of the 0.8358 16-month high, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.83481, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8355 session high and the 0.8358 16m high extends the uptrend into fresh highs
Loss of the 0.8348 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows line; the 0.8341 higher low is next
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) can shift October-hike pricing tonight
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC: a print at or above 1.2% y/y would test whether the rally from the PCE low holds
17:46 UTC
Uptrend since PCE low, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 0.83526
Higher-low chain under a flat 0.8355 cap.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss swept below the London low to a 0.8321 PCE low. The drop fully reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, and NY session has since built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline. Late in NY hours price is pressing the 0.8355 session high, capped three times since 14:45 UTC. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR runs about 6 pips.
Support: 0.83481, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.8360
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8355 session high breaks the triple cap and brings the 0.8360 round number into view
Loss of the 0.8348 higher low and the rising trendline flattens the NY structure, exposing the 0.8341 swing low at the 38.2% fib
A return below the 0.8321 PCE low would negate the post-PCE recovery
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 0.8321 post-PCE low, compressing under the session high.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked the pair to the 0.8321 PCE low, but ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats reversed it through the Asia high at 0.8347. Higher lows ran up to a 0.8355 session high in NY hours. Price is now compressing between 0.8348 and 0.8355 on the rising higher-low line, just under the 0.8358 16-month high, with RSI(14) neutral at 58.
Support: 0.8348, 0.8341, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.8358
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the higher-low line and the 0.8348 Asia high breaks the chain and exposes the 0.8341 higher low
Acceptance above the 0.8355 session high puts the 0.8358 16-month high in play
Loss of the 0.8338 61.8% retracement of the PCE swing would put the 0.8321 PCE low back in focus
Fed speakers Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC Thu is the next CHF-side catalyst
Soft core PCE at 12:30 UTC drove a false break of the London low to the 0.8321 PCE low. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then reversed the move back through the Asian range high, with higher lows up to 0.8341. Late in the NY session the session high near 0.8355 has capped three times, and price holds just above the 0.8348 micro low with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.8348, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.83582
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8355 session high puts the 0.8358 prior high (16-month high) in play
Failure to hold the 0.8348 micro low exposes the 0.8341 higher low, where the 38.2% fib of the PCE rally also sits
A break of 0.8341 ends the post-PCE higher-low chain and reopens the path toward the 0.8321 PCE low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the read after the PCE miss
Higher lows since the 0.8321 post-PCE low, Asian range broken above.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept the London low to a 0.8321 PCE low. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then reversed the move, and NY built higher lows through the 0.8347 Asian high to a 0.8355 session high. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is holding just under the 0.8358 16-month (16m) high, with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.8347, 0.8341, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.83584
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high extends the uptrend into fresh highs; repeated failure below the 0.8355 session high keeps a cap in place
A drop back under the 0.8347 Asian high puts price back inside the overnight range
A break of the 0.8341 swing low and the higher-lows trendline ends the post-PCE higher-low chain; the 0.8321 PCE low is the next reference
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift this read, as could Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC
Higher-low chain since the 0.8321 PCE low, capped just under 0.8358.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC briefly pushed USDCHF below the London low to the 0.8321 pce low, and the strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI prints then fully reversed the drop. NY session has since built higher lows along a rising trendline to a 0.8355 session high, just below the 0.8358 16m high, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 0.83477, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high extends the trend beyond yesterday's peak
Loss of the 0.8348 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 0.8341 swing low in play
A break of the 0.8341 swing low ends the post-PCE higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2–50% zone of the pce low-high fib
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift the read
Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) during the Asia-London transition
The PCE-miss flush at 12:30 UTC briefly broke the London low at 0.8324 and reached 0.8321, then reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. That false break led into a chain of higher lows through NY, and price is now testing the 0.8355 session high just below the 0.8358 prior high after London close. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 0.83413, 0.83242, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 prior high clears the 16-month high and extends the NY advance
Loss of the 0.8341 ny hl breaks the rising trendline from the pce low
Back below the 0.8324 london low negates the false break read
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), then Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing below NY high · RSI 61 · price 0.83499
Higher lows since the PCE low, flat highs near 0.8353; holding above Asian high.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked USDCHF to a pce low of 0.8321, but the drop was fully reversed as GDP and Chicago PMI beats landed. Price then rallied through the Asian high at 0.8347 to a NY high of 0.8354. Late in the NY session it is coiling between the rising trendline and 38.2% fib near 0.8341 and the flat 0.8350s, beneath the 0.8358 16-mth high.
Support: 0.8347, 0.83413, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83542, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8354 NY high puts the 0.8358 16-mth high in play
Break of the rising trendline and 38.2% fib at 0.8341 undoes the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.8321 pce low
Slipping back inside the range below the 0.8347 Asian high weakens the NY breakout
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on October-hike odds could shift this read
Higher lows since the 12:30 UTC low, capped under 0.8354.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC flushed price below the London lows to a 0.8321 day low. The move was fully reversed as the GDP and Chicago PMI beats landed. NY hours have since built rising lows at 0.8331 and 0.8341 beneath the 0.8354 session high, with price late in NY just shy of the 0.8358 prior high and RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.83413, 0.83309, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83542, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 prior high clears yesterday's peak and the 16-month high
Loss of the 0.8341 swing low breaks the rising lows line; the 0.8331 higher low and 0.8321 day low sit below
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read after the soft PCE
15:47 UTC
Two-way, fading off the NY high · RSI 48 · price 0.83422
NY expanded both sides of Asian range; 0.8321–0.8354 range, lower highs since 14:45 UTC.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss swept the London low to the 0.8321 pce low. Beats in GDP and Chicago PMI then drove a reversal to the 0.8354 NY high, rejected just shy of the 0.8358 16m high. Price has since faded back to the 38.2% fib near 0.8341, hugging EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and a swing low at 0.8338 just below.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8338, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8354, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8338 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 0.8321 pce low
Recovery through the 0.8348 pre-pce high and 0.8354 NY high reopens the 16m high at 0.8358
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) on October-hike odds after the PCE miss could shift this read
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) is the next CHF-side risk
15:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 55 · price 0.83471
Post-PCE V-reversal; higher lows below a 0.8353–0.8354 cap.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC swept the London low to a 0.8321 pce low, then the GDP/ADP beats drove a V-reversal through the Asian range high near 0.8348. NY has since printed higher lows at 0.8331, 0.8339 and 0.8344 beneath a flat 0.8353–0.8354 session high cap. Price is retesting the old 0.8348 range top into London close, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.83441, 0.83385, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83542, 0.83585
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8344 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the NY recovery structure
A close above the 0.8354 session high exposes yesterday's 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8338 higher low, near the 50% fib of the pce low–session high move, puts 0.8321 back in view
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift this read after the soft PCE
15:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in NY · RSI 56 · price 0.83485
Post-PCE sweep low, HH/HL chain capped under 16m high.
Soft core PCE at 12:30 UTC pushed USDCHF through the London low to the PCE low at 0.8321. The sweep reversed as GDP and ADP beats cushioned the dollar, and NY has since built higher lows up to a session high at 0.8354. Upper-wick rejection there leaves price just under the 16m high at 0.8358, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.8339, 0.8324, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8358 16m high breaks the range top and extends the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8339 ny swing low, near the fib 50%, breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the london low at 0.8324
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC, then Swiss CPI at 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
V-reversal from PCE sweep; HH/HL chain above Asian high.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC took price through the London low near 0.8324 to a 0.8321 pce low. The hot GDP and Chicago PMI side of the release reversed the drop within the bar. NY session has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and pushed through the 0.8347 asian high to a 0.8354 session high; the 14:45 swing low at 0.8339 is the nearest pivot, still above the 50% of the pce leg fib.
Support: 0.8347, 0.83385, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83542, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8347 asian high returns price to the pre-breakout range
Break of the 0.8339 swing low and the rising trendline ends the post-PCE higher-low sequence
Close above the 0.8354 session high exposes the 0.8358 prior high (16-month high)
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) remarks on the PCE miss could shift this read
Higher low at 0.8331 after PCE sweep; lower high under 0.8353.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept the London low at 0.8324 down to a 0.8321 pce low. Hot GDP and Chicago PMI then fuelled a full V-recovery to a 0.8353 ny high, where the move was rejected. Price is back at 0.8343, holding the 38.2% fib of the pce low to ny high swing at 0.8340, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8331, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8353, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8353 ny high exposes the 0.8358 16m high
Loss of the 0.8340 38.2% fib puts the 0.8331 higher low in play, with the 0.8321 pce low below that
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari could shift the post-PCE read
Higher highs since 12:30 UTC sweep; London high being retested.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept below the London low to a 0.8321 pce low. The dip was fully reclaimed, and NY has since built higher highs to a 0.8353 session high. Price is now retesting the 0.8348 london high from above, with the 0.8358 prior high (16-month high) capping just overhead.
Support: 0.83483, 0.83309, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83531, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8348 london high returns price to the London range
Break of 0.8331 higher low (near 61.8% of the PCE-low fib) undercuts the NY higher-low line
Clearance of 0.8358 prior high extends the 16-month high
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) remarks on the PCE miss could shift this read
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC lands during the Asia session
14:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, testing range top · RSI 54 · price 0.83455
Post-data sweep of London low reclaimed; higher low in NY session.
The 12:30 UTC US data split (PCE miss, GDP/ADP beat) spiked price through the London low to the 0.8321 data low before a full reclaim. The NY session has since set a higher low at 0.8331 and is pressing the 0.8348 pre-data high, with the 0.8358 16-month high the next cap above. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and ATR is elevated at around 8 pips after the release.
Support: 0.8331, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8348 pre-data high opens a retest of the 0.8358 16-month high
Loss of the 0.8331 higher low puts the 0.8321 data low back in focus
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the read after the soft PCE
Month-end flows may distort price action into the London-NY close
V-rebound, higher lows since 0.8321, testing session high.
Soft core PCE at 12:30 UTC briefly broke the London low to a 0.8321 post-PCE low. That dip was fully reclaimed in the first hours of NY, and price is now pressing the 0.8348 session high, sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 0.8358–0.8321 drop. Higher lows at 0.8332 and 0.8331 since the print keep the short-term recovery sequence intact.
Support: 0.83309, 0.83242, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83483, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8348 session high opens a retest of the 0.8358 16m high
Break below the 0.8331 higher low undercuts the post-PCE recovery; the 0.8324 london low and 0.8321 post-pce low sit beneath
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari later today, then Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Intraday range 0.8321–0.8348, lower highs forming in NY.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss swept the London low at 0.8324 to a 0.8321 pce low before snapping back. The rebound has retraced part of the PCE drop, but NY is printing lower highs, with the 0.8343 post-PCE high capped beneath the 0.8348 session high. Price sits mid-range below both EMAs, RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8321, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8343, 0.8348, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8321 pce low breaks the day's range floor and exposes the 0.8300 psych level
Close above the 0.8348 session high invalidates the lower-highs read and brings the 0.8358 prior high back into view
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Cook/Goolsbee this evening could shift the read; quarter-end flows may distort NY price action
13:31 UTC
Two-way range after PCE spike, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 0.83348
Sweep below london low reclaimed; mid-range inside 0.8321–0.8348.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss knocked USD/CHF from the 0.8348 pre-data high to the 0.8321 pce low, sweeping the london low at 0.8324 before a snap-back to the 0.8343 rebound high. Early in the NY session, price sits near the 50% of the pce drop fib, just under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and the 16m high at 0.8358 overhead.
Support: 0.83242, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83428, 0.83483, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.8324 and the pce low at 0.8321 would turn the sweep into a lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.8343 rebound high puts the pre-data hi at 0.8348 and the 16m high at 0.8358 back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could shift this read; Swiss CPI follows Thu 06:30 UTC
Intraday range 0.8321–0.8348, false break below London low.
The soft core PCE miss flushed price from the 0.8348 session high to a 0.8321 PCE low. That move swept the 0.8324 London low, then snapped back to 0.8337, the PCE rebound high, roughly a 58% retrace of the PCE drop as the GDP and ADP beats cushioned the dollar. Early NY sees price mid-range at 0.8335, just under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8321, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.8348, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8324 London low and 0.8321 PCE low turns the false break into a range break, exposing the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8337 PCE rebound high and then the 0.8348 session high reopens the 0.8358 16m high
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could extend the post-PCE swing
Intraday range 0.8321–0.8348; London low swept on the data spike, then reclaimed.
The 12:30 GMT US PCE release spiked price to 0.8321, sweeping the London low at 0.8324. The next bar retraced to 0.8337, leaving price mid-range near 56% of the London-low rally and below the pre-PCE high at 0.8348. Tuesday's 0.8358 16-month high still caps the window.
Support: 0.83242, 0.83209
Resistance: 0.83483, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the London low at 0.8324 turns the sweep into a lower low toward the PCE low at 0.8321
Close above the pre-PCE high at 0.8348 reopens a test of the 0.8358 16m high
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC; any FX-intervention language could extend the post-PCE swing
Swiss CPI Thu 06:30 UTC (f/c 1.0% y/y) is the next CHF-side risk to the range
12:46 UTC
Intraday down-leg after range break · RSI 37 · price 0.83233
London range 0.8324–0.8348 broken lower on the PCE bar.
The 12:30 GMT core PCE release coincided with a 27-pip flush from the 0.8348 session high to the 0.8321 pce low. That move broke the London low at 0.8324 and took price below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold. The Asian low at 0.8332 sits close to the 50% retrace of the PCE drop and is the first overhead area where supply may cap.
Support: 0.83209, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83242, 0.83318, 0.83483
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8324 london low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8321 pce low exposes the 0.8300 round number
A recovery through the 0.8332 asian low (PCE drop fib 50%) neutralises the down-leg
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC could shift the read on any FX-intervention language
0.8325–0.8348 day range; PCE-release bar undercutting the London-to-NY higher lows.
Higher lows from the 0.83245 London low carried price to a 0.83483 session high, with the ADP beat keeping the bid into NY. The PCE-release bar is down about 10 pips to 0.8332, retracing beyond the 61.8% of the London-low leg onto the morning low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48, still under yesterday's 0.83585 16-month high.
Support: 0.8331, 0.8330, 0.83245
Resistance: 0.83408, 0.83483, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8331 morning low and the 0.8300 pivot exposes the 0.83245 London low
Recovery above the 0.83408 ADP bar low restores the higher-low sequence
Break of the 0.83483 session high puts the 0.83585 16m high back in play
PCE bar still forming; the core PCE reaction and the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC could reshape the range
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, testing session high · RSI 66 · price 0.8346
False break below Asian low reclaimed; higher-low chain since 08:45 UTC.
After the late-NY drop from the 0.8358 16m high on Williams' dovish tilt, London broke below the asian low to a 0.8325 london low and reversed. Price has since printed higher lows up to the 0.8348 session high, now capping just above the Asian range top.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8332, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8348 session high opens a retest of the 0.8358 16m high
Loss of the 0.8340 higher low breaks the rising lows and returns focus to the 0.8332 asian low
ADP out now and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) can override this structure; a move back through the 0.8325 london low negates the false break
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC adds CHF headline risk
12:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low · RSI 64 · price 0.83462
Higher highs and higher lows since 09:00 UTC, testing Asian high.
London swept below the Asian range low near 0.8329 to a 0.8324 session low, then built a higher-low chain (0.8331, swing low 0.8340) back to the Asian high at 0.8347 as USD eased on Williams' patience call. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched. Price is pressing the range top into the US data window, with the 0.8358 prior high (16-month high) above.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83314, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.83475, 0.8350, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) land within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the Asian high at 0.8347 and the 0.8350 round number opens the 0.8358 prior high
Close below the rising lows and the 0.8340 swing low undoes the London recovery; the 0.8331 higher low, then the 0.8324 session low, sit beneath
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary CHF risk for intervention language
11:46 UTC
Range, intraday higher lows since London low · RSI 58 · price 0.83417
0.8324–0.8347 range; London higher-low sequence pressing the Asian high.
USDCHF has ranged 0.8324–0.8347 since Williams' no-urgency comments knocked it off the 0.8358 prior high. London swept below the Asian low to a 0.8324 session low, then a London rebound of higher lows at 0.8331 and 0.8337 lifted price to 0.8346, just under the Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is about 5 pips ahead of ADP and core PCE inside the hour.
Support: 0.83371, 0.8330, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) are likely to decide the range break
An M15 close above the 0.8347 Asian high opens the 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8337 higher low (38.2% of the London rebound fib) exposes the 0.8300 pivot and the 0.8324 session low
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary CHF headline risk
11:32 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off London low · RSI 52 · price 0.83411
False break below Asian low reclaimed; higher lows into Asian high.
Pre-London selling broke the Asian range low near 0.8332 and printed a 0.8325 London low. That break failed. The London rebound has since built higher lows at 0.8331 and 0.8337 back to the 0.8347 Asian high, where the 11:15 UTC bar was capped, as USD holds softer after Williams. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.8337, 0.8331, 0.83245
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land within the hour and can override the range read
M15 close above the 0.8347 asian high opens the 0.8358 prior high (16-month top)
Loss of the 0.8337 higher low, then the 0.8331 swing low, puts the 0.8325 london low back in play
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC for any FX-intervention language shift
11:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 58 · price 0.83439
London low at 0.8325 swept, now testing Asian high.
London swept below the early-session 0.8327 lows to a session low at 0.8325 and reversed. Price has since built higher lows at 0.8331 (swing low) and 0.8337 (higher low) and is back near the 0.8347 Asian high late in the London session. The rebound has recovered most of the Asia-to-London drop despite the softer USD tone after Williams' remarks. RSI(14) at 58 is neutral, ATR about 6 pips.
Support: 0.83371, 0.83314, 0.83245
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land before NY open and could materially shift this read
A close above the 0.8347 Asian high exposes the 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8337 higher low, then the 0.8331 swing low, breaks the higher-low trendline
A return below the 0.8325 session low reverses the sweep read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC adds CHF headline risk
11:02 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off London low · RSI 49 · price 0.83384
False break below Asian range, higher lows since 0.8324.
London broke the Asian range low and set a London low at 0.8324 as US yields eased on Williams' dovish remarks, then reclaimed 0.8330 in a false break. The recovery met rejection at the 0.8343 session high, still under the 0.8347 Asian high, with higher lows off 0.8331 intact. The 0.8331 higher low sits on the 61.8% of the recovery fib; RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.83314, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.8343, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8331 higher low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.8324 London low
Close above the 0.8347 Asian high brings the 0.8358 16m high back into view
ADP 12:15 GMT and core PCE 12:30 GMT (~1.5h away) could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC
10:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 61 · price 0.83423
London swept Asian low then reclaimed; price inside the Asian range, below its high.
Late London: the session swept the Asian low near 0.8329 to a london low of 0.8324, then reclaimed it and has printed higher lows. Price now sits at 0.8342, just above the 50% retrace of the drop from the 0.8358 prior high, with the Asian high at 0.8347 capping. The pullback from the 16-month high came as Williams' dovish tilt eased US yields; RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) is about 5.7 pips.
Support: 0.83314, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.3%) land around the NY open and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8347 asian high opens the path back to the 0.8358 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8331 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 0.8324 london low back in play
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary CHF risk
10:31 UTC
Mild downtrend from Asian high, stabilising · RSI 50 · price 0.83353
Lower highs from 0.8347; London range 0.8325–0.8340 after a sweep of the lows.
Pre-London selling broke the Asian low at 0.8332, and London stretched to a 0.83245 london low before a sharp reclaim. Price is now rotating inside 0.8330–0.8340, capped under the 0.8340 london high and the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.8347 asian high. Williams-led USD softness keeps the pair off yesterday's 0.83585 16m high, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.8332, 0.83245
Resistance: 0.8340, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) are the main risk for this range; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
M15 close above the 0.8340 london high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.8347 asian high
Loss of the 0.8332 asian low reopens the 0.83245 london low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A PCE-driven push through 0.8347 brings the 0.83585 16m high back into view
Lower highs off 0.8358; London false break below Asian low.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs off the 0.8358 16-month high since Williams' no-urgency remarks knocked it back late in the NY session. London broke the Asian low at 0.8332 to a session low of 0.8324 but reclaimed it. Price now chops near 0.8335, below the 0.8340 bounce high and the 38.2% pullback fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8332, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8340 bounce high and 0.8347 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8358 16-month high
Failure to hold the Asian low at 0.8332 re-exposes the 0.8324 session low
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT), about 2h out, could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 GMT
10:02 UTC
Intraday lower highs off 0.8347, basing near 0.8324 · RSI 51 · price 0.83354
London range 0.8324–0.8340 after a sweep of the prior-day low.
London dipped below Tuesday's 0.8327 low to a 0.8324 london low and reversed sharply. Price now sits on the 50% retrace of the 0.8347 asian high to London low leg and flat against EMA20. Supply has capped rallies twice at the 0.8340 london high, with USD softer after Williams' no-urgency remarks.
Support: 0.83242, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8340 london high puts the 0.8347 asian high and 61.8% retrace back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8324 london low confirms the sweep failed and exposes the 0.8300 psych pivot
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could break the London range in either direction
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC; the 0.8358 prior high (16-month high) caps the upside only if the data impulse extends
Lower highs from 0.8358; session low swept and rejected, price testing descending trendline.
Lower highs have followed the 0.8358 16m high as US yields eased on Williams' no-urgency remarks. London broke the Asian range low and swept the 0.8327 area to a 0.8324 session low before a sharp rejection. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the asian high to session low drop, pressing the descending trendline near 0.8337, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83242
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 0.8340 london high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8347 asian high next
A recovery through the 0.8347 asian high puts the 0.8358 16m high back in view
Failure to hold the 50% retracement and the 0.8330 round number reopens the 0.8324 session low
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary risk
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 47 · price 0.83345
London swept below the prior-day low, then rejected; lower-high sequence intact.
London broke the 0.8329 Asian low and yesterday's 0.8327 low, printing a 0.8324 London low before a sharp 10-pip rejection back to 0.8334. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian high–London low leg, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 47. The lower-high line from the 0.8347 Asian high still caps it as the dollar holds firm ahead of US ADP and PCE.
Support: 0.8329, 0.83242, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8340 London high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.8347 Asian high
Slipping back below the 0.8324 London low turns the rejection into a lower-low and exposes 0.8300 psych
The 0.8358 16m high set in yesterday's NY session remains the upper reference if the Asian high gives way
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
London broke below the Asian range; fresh session low under the prior low.
Lower highs have held since the 0.8358 window high. Mid-London, price broke below the 0.8332–0.8347 Asian range, and the 07:30 UTC spike to the 0.8340 London high was rejected. Price now sits at a 0.8324 session low beneath yesterday's 0.8327 prior low, with the dollar easing after Williams' no-urgency remarks. RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.83242, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.83405, 0.8347
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8327 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8324 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.8300 psych
Retrace of the Asian high drop: 38.2% near 0.8333, 61.8% near 0.8338, below the 0.8340 London high
Close above the lower highs trendline and 0.8347 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US ADP 12:15 GMT and core PCE 12:30 GMT, then the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 0.83262
Asian range broken lower, prior-day low under pressure.
London broke the Asian range (0.8332–0.8347) lower and price is now testing under the prior low at 0.8327, with a fresh session low at 0.83242. Lower highs at the Asian high and the London high at 0.8340 hold the sequence on the lower-highs line, a fade from yesterday's 0.8358 peak that fits the stretched short-CHF positioning into quarter-end; RSI(14) at 34 is soft, not oversold, and the round number at 0.8320 sits just below.
Support: 0.83242, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.83405, 0.8347
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the prior low at 0.8327 would mark the drop under it as a false break
Break above the lower-highs line and the london high at 0.8340 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the session low at 0.83242 exposes the round number at 0.8320
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
London sweep below Asian low reclaimed; chop inside 0.8327–0.8347.
London open broke the asian low at 0.8332 and tagged the london low at 0.8327, matching yesterday's midday low, before a sharp reclaim to the london high at 0.8340. Price is back at 0.8336, mid-way between the asian high and low on the fib of that drop, capped by lower highs since the 0.8358 prior high. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR sits around 5 pips as month-end chop runs into US data.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8340, 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 0.8332 puts the london low at 0.8327 back in play; losing 0.8327 confirms a lower-low
M15 close above the london high at 0.8340 opens the asian high at 0.8347 and the lower highs line
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could break the range either way; 0.8358 prior high is the upside marker
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary CHF risk
08:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.83352
0.8327–0.8347 range below the 0.8358 prior high; London dip below the Asian low reclaimed.
London open pushed through the Asian low to 0.8327, matching yesterday's NY-session low, before reclaiming it and bouncing to a 0.8340 london high, where price was rejected near the 61.8% fib. Price is still boxed below the 0.8347 asian high and the lower-highs line, with the prior high at 0.8358 capping despite the Fed-hike-driven USD bid.
Support: 0.83268, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8327 london low breaks the range floor and opens the 0.8300 round number
M15 close above the 0.8347 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.8358 prior high back in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC is a secondary CHF risk
The early European slide took out the asian low at 0.8332 and stopped at 0.8327, a double low with yesterday's NY-morning trough, before a 10-pip London-open bar pulled price back inside the Asian range. Price is at 0.8335, capped by the 0.8340 london high and below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) around 5 pips as US data approaches.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8340, 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian low at 0.8332 puts the 0.8327 double low back in play. A break there turns the sweep into a lower-low.
Acceptance above the 0.8340 london high reopens the 0.8347 asian high; the 16m high at 0.8358 stays the range ceiling.
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC.
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 32 · price 0.83303
Asian range broken lower into London open; day low at 0.8327 double-tested.
USDCHF faded from the Asian high at 0.8347 into London open, slipping through the Asian range floor near 0.8332 and printing a day low at 0.8327 that matches yesterday's midday trough. Lower highs remain in place beneath the 0.83385 swing high, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 32 as the broad USD bid pauses ahead of today's US data.
Support: 0.83268, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83385, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8327 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8300 round number
Recovery above the 0.83385 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.8347 Asian high back in focus
A return to the 0.8358 prior high would need a hot US print; ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could reset this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC adds CHF-side headline risk
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high/lower-low chain.
After a rejection at the 0.8347 Asian high, the pair slipped through the 0.8332 Asian low into London open. It printed a 0.8327 London low that matches yesterday's trough, pulling back from the 0.8358 16-month high despite the firm USD tone. Lower highs are capping the bounce at the 0.8339 pullback hi, just above the 61.8% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low leg, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 0.83269, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83316, 0.83385, 0.8347
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8339 pullback hi breaks the lower-highs line and puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.8327 London low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8300 round number
A reclaim of the 0.8347 Asian high would negate the range-break read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
07:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs off 16-month high · RSI 38 · price 0.83314
Asian low broken pre-London; bounce capped at 50% retrace.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8347 asian high into the London open and broke the 0.8332 Asian low to a 0.83288 session low. The bounce stalled at the 0.83385 bounce high, near the 50% retrace. Price sits at 0.8331, below both EMAs, with lower highs off yesterday's 0.83585 16m high as the pair waits on US PCE and ADP.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83385, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83271 prior low extends the lower-low sequence from the 16m high
Reclaim of the 0.83385 bounce high, then the 0.8347 asian high, negates the pullback read
A break above the lower highs trendline toward 0.83585 would put the 16m high back in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Swiss ZEW at 08:00 and SNB Bulletin at 13:00 UTC
Lower highs from 0.8358; Asian range 0.8332–0.8347 broken lower before London.
London opens with USDCHF at 0.8331. The pre-London push below the Asian low to the 0.8329 sweep low was bought back to the 0.8339 spike high, the 50% fib of the 0.8347–0.8329 drop, then faded. Lower highs persist from yesterday's 0.8358 prior high, and price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) at 37, even with the hawkish-Fed USD backdrop.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83271, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83385, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8327 prior low confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.8300 round number in view
Recovery above the 0.8339 spike high reopens the 0.8347 Asian high; the lower highs line from 0.8358 sits above that
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
Asian range broken lower pre-London, retesting floor.
Ahead of the London open, the 0.8332–0.8347 Asian range gave way, printing a session low at 0.8329 just above yesterday's 0.8327 prior low. Price is now back at the asian low, RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits under both EMAs. Since the 0.8358 16m high the pair has put in lower highs, and the asian high lines up with the 61.8% fib. Month-end flows are trimming the run despite a firm USD into PCE.
Support: 0.83319, 0.83288, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83401, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
Holding back above the 0.8332 asian low turns the break into a failed one; acceptance below the 0.8327 prior low extends the lower-low sequence.
A close above the 0.8340 fib 38.2 reopens the 0.8347 asian high and the lower-highs line.
The 16m high at 0.8358 caps the structure; only a move through it resumes the six-day run.
US ADP at 12:15 UTC, core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
06:31 UTC
Short-term down, lower high under 16m high · RSI 42 · price 0.83332
Asian range low broken; lower high at 0.8347 below 0.83585.
Early-European selling pushed through the Asian range low near 0.8332 to a 0.83303 session low, a 17-pip slide from the 0.8347 Asian high, which forms a lower high under yesterday's 0.83585 16m high. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42. This is the 0.8330 pullback line the CHF digest flags after the six-day USD run, with the 0.8327 prior low next beneath.
Support: 0.83303, 0.8327, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 0.83303 session low and a break of the 0.8327 prior low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8300 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.8347 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the pullback read
A retrace into the 0.8341–0.8348 fib zone that fails keeps the move from the 16m high intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) in the NY session, plus the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.8358; overnight range 0.8332–0.8347.
The Fed-hike-driven USD bid carried USD/CHF to a 0.8358 16-month high in NY. The late-NY drop then set a series of lower highs, and the overnight range has held 0.8332–0.8347. The last four bars unwound the Asian push to the 0.8347 range high, leaving price at 0.8336 on the Asia base, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83345, 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8335 Asia base puts the 0.8332 range low in play, then the 0.8327 Tue low
M15 close back above the 0.8347 range high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8358 16-mth high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
06:02 UTC
Range, drifting lower into London open · RSI 44 · price 0.83363
Asian range 0.8332–0.8347 below the 0.8358 high.
Into London open, price has faded from the 0.8347 Asian high back toward the 0.8335 swing low. That leaves it in the lower half of the 0.8332–0.8347 Asian range, with the 0.8358 16m high capping since yesterday's 18 pip drop at 18:00 UTC. RSI(14) is near 44 with price under the ema20 at 0.8340 and EMA50, and it is sitting just past the 61.8% of the Asian swing fib. The firm dollar tone on Fed-hike bets has not yet produced a retest of the high.
Support: 0.83345, 0.83318, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.8340, 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8327 prior low
Recovery above the 0.8340 ema20 and then the 0.8347 asian high reopens the 0.8358 16m high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC adds CHF-side event risk
05:46 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off Asian lows · RSI 52 · price 0.83425
Asian range 0.8332–0.8347; double low at 0.8332 then higher lows into late Asia.
Late Asia, pre-London open: the pair built a double low at the 0.8332 asian low after NY's sharp drop from the 0.8358 16-mth high, then lifted to a 0.8347 asian high. It is now easing back to 0.8342, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52, a shallow pullback inside the Asian rally fib while firm USD Fed-hike pricing keeps the pair near its highs.
Support: 0.83344, 0.83316
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8347 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8358 16-mth high
Loss of the 0.8334 swing low puts the 0.8332 asian low and the double-low base back in play
A break below the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib (0.8338) weakens the recovery read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
Late-Asia push to range top after NY drop from 0.8358; higher lows off 0.8332.
Late Asia has lifted USDCHF back to the 0.8347 Asian high, which coincides with the 50% fib of yesterday's NY drop from the 0.8358 16-month high. The 0.8332 swing low has held on four tests, and price is holding above the ema20 near 0.8341 with the USD bid on Fed hike pricing.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8347 Asian high reopens the 0.8358 16m high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8341 returns price to the middle of the range
London open in ~2h, then US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
SNB Quarterly Bulletin 13:00 UTC and quarter-end flows add CHF-side event risk
05:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 0.83459
Asian range 0.8332–0.8347, price testing top pre-London.
The late-NY drop from the 0.8358 16m high held three times at 0.8332, which is now the asian low. Price has climbed back to the 0.8347 asian high ahead of London open. That puts it at the 50% of the sell-off fib, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR only ~3.6 pips as the dollar stays firm on Fed hike bets.
Support: 0.8342, 0.8332
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8347 asian high completes the double bottom and opens the 0.8358 16m high
Slip back below the 0.8342 ema20 returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Failure to hold 0.8332 asian low breaks the range lower and negates the base
Rejection near the 61.8% of the sell-off fib (~0.8348) keeps the range intact
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows today and the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC are added event risk
05:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher into late Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.83459
Higher lows from 0.8332, pressing the top of the Asian range.
Late Asia session: USDCHF built a double bottom at the 0.8332 asia low and has climbed from it in a higher-low chain. Price is now pressing the 0.8347 asia high, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR about 4 pips, as firm US yields keep the dollar supported. The Asia leg holds above the 0.8342 asia shelf, with the round number 0.8350 and yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8358 overhead.
Support: 0.8342, 0.8332
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8350, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8347 asia high opens the round number 0.8350 and the 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8342 asia shelf and rising support shifts the Asia leg back toward mid-range
Failure to hold the 0.8332 asia low voids the double bottom
London open and quarter-end fix flows could widen the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off Asian low · RSI 65 · price 0.83454
Double bottom at 0.8332 inside Asian range, testing 0.8346 neckline.
Late Asia session retested the 0.8332 Asian low at 02:15 UTC and turned higher off a higher low at 0.8334, carving a double bottom with price now pressing the 0.8346 Asian high. RSI(14) near 65. The firm USD on hawkish-Fed and yield moves keeps the franc heavy, while yesterday's 0.8359 prior high capped the NY session before the late sell-off.
Support: 0.83344, 0.83316, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83495
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 Asian high confirms the double bottom and opens the 0.8350 London high, then the 0.8359 prior high
Failure at 0.8346 and a break of the rising lows line below the 0.8334 higher low returns price to the 0.8332 Asian low, with the 0.8327 NY low beneath
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort the session range
04:31 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off Asian lows · RSI 56 · price 0.83441
Asian range 0.8332–0.8346, price retesting range top.
Late Asia session, and price is pressing the Asian high at 0.8346, which lines up with the 50% retracement of yesterday's post-London-close slide from the 0.8359 NY high. The Asian low near 0.8332 held twice, and the 0.8341 pivot now sits beneath the latest advance as the USD tone stays firm into today's PCE.
Support: 0.83409, 0.83316, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83517
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 0.8352 prior pivot, then the 0.8359 ny high
Slip back below the 0.8341 pivot returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Failure of the 0.8332 asian low double base exposes the 0.8327 london low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; quarter-end fix flows may add noise
04:16 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.83433
Asian range 0.8332–0.8346, double bottom base, lower high below NY high.
Late Asia session: price is back at 0.8343, near the asian high at 0.8346, after a double bottom at the 0.8332 asian low and a higher low at 0.8334. The 01:00 UTC high still sits below the 0.8358 NY high, extending a lower-high sequence, while the broader USD bid on hawkish-Fed pricing has kept dips shallow and RSI(14) sits neutral near 53.
Support: 0.83344, 0.83318, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 asian high breaks the Asian range and the lower-high sequence, opening the 0.8358 ny high
Loss of the 0.8334 higher low and the 0.8332 asian low undoes the double bottom and exposes the 0.8327 london low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; quarter-end fix flows may add noise
04:01 UTC
Range after late-NY slide, rebounding · RSI 53 · price 0.83433
Late-Asia higher lows off 0.8332 base, pressing Asian high.
In late Asia, the pair has bounced from a twice-tested base at the 0.8332 asian low and is back against the 0.8346 asian high. That retraces about half of yesterday's late-NY slide from the 0.8358 prior high as firm US yields keep USD supported. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53, and the 0.8332–0.8346 range is still intact heading into London.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8332, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83517, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 asian high (fib 50%) opens the 0.8352 london high, then the 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8340 psych level and the higher-low trendline returns price to the 0.8332 asian low
A break below the 0.8332 double bottom exposes the 0.8327 swing low from yesterday's London session
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; quarter-end London fix flows may add noise
Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC and SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC are secondary CHF risks
03:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside the Asian range · RSI 42 · price 0.83374
Lower highs from the 0.8346 Asia high, floor holding at 0.8332.
USD/CHF is mid-range at 0.8337 after a sharp late-NY drop from the 0.8359 ny high. It is compressing inside a 0.8332–0.8346 Asian range, with lower highs off the asia high. The asia low at 0.8332 has held three times despite firm US yields and Fed-hike bets underpinning the pair.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8350, 0.8359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 asia low exposes the 0.8327 swing low from London
Close above the 0.8346 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.8350 london high and 0.8359 ny high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Range-bound after a lower high, momentum soft · RSI 43 · price 0.83369
Asian range 0.8332–0.8346, lower highs from NY high.
Late Asia session: the pair was rejected at the 0.8346 Asian high and slid back to the 0.8332 Asian low, which has held three times since the sharp 18:00 UTC NY drop from 0.8358. The higher Fed October-hike bets and US yields cited in the digest keep the pair near highs, but the chart shows lower highs and price trading under both EMAs, with the 0.8341 breakdown level capping the latest bounce.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8346, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 Asian low exposes the 0.8327 swing low and breaks the range read
Close back above the 0.8341 breakdown and 0.8346 Asian high negates the lower highs sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC are likely to set the next range; a close through the 0.8358 NY high would mark a fresh leg
SNB Quarterly Bulletin 13:00 UTC and quarter-end flows could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 0.8358 NY high, lows holding 0.8332.
Late Asia session: the pair was rejected at the 0.8346 Asian high at 01:00 UTC. That extends a lower-highs sequence from yesterday's 0.8358 NY high, and price is back near the 0.8332 Asian low. RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs show the yield-driven USD bid is not yet translating into fresh intraday highs.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 asian low exposes the 0.8327 london low
Break above the 0.8346 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8358 ny high
London open and Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC may set the session range
US ADP and PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Intraday pullback from the NY high, lower highs · RSI 40 · price 0.8335
Asian range 0.8332–0.8346, price in lower half near the floor.
The late-NY 18:00 UTC drop off the 0.8358 NY high set a sequence of lower highs, and the Asian range is capped by the 0.8346 asia high after the 01:00 UTC rejection. Price is sitting just above the 0.8332 asia low, a level tested three times since 18:30 UTC, and near the 78.6% retrace of the 0.8327 swing low to NY high rally. RSI is at 40, below both EMAs, and ATR is about 4 pips in thin mid-Asia trade.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8332 breaks the asia low and exposes the 0.8327 swing low
Reclaim of the 0.8346 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens 0.8358
London open (~07:00 UTC) and ZEW at 08:00 UTC are the first catalysts to test the Asian range
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Sideways, heavy after reversal from 0.8358 · RSI 42 · price 0.8336
0.8332–0.8346 range with lower highs off Tuesday NY high.
Mid-Asia session, price was rejected at the 0.8346 Asian high and is back at the 0.8332 range floor. That floor has now been tested three times since Tuesday's 18:00 UTC drop from the 0.8358 prior high. RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits below both EMAs, and the USD bid on Fed hike pricing has not reclaimed the NY high.
Support: 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 range floor, near 78.6% of the Tue rally, exposes the 0.8327 swing low
Close above the 0.8346 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.8358 prior high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8346 below 0.8359; lows holding 0.8332–0.8334.
Late-NY sell-off from the 0.8359 prior high, a fresh extension on the Fed-driven USD bid, leaves mid-Asia session boxed between the 0.8332 ny low and the 0.8346 asian high. That high marks a lower high, and the 01:30 UTC dip found demand at the 0.8334 swing low. RSI(14) near 41, price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8332
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.8359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8332 ny low breaks the post-NY range floor
Recovery through the 0.8346 asian high negates the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.8359 prior high
Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC around London open, US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Sideways after late-NY selloff · RSI 46 · price 0.83405
Asian range 0.8334–0.8346, capped near 50% of the NY drop.
Asia session is holding a 0.8334–0.8346 range after the late-NY drop from the 0.8358 prior high to the 0.8332 swing low, a move that lines up with the US-Iran deal headlines in the digest. The Asian high at 0.8346 sits at the 50% retrace of that NY drop fib and was rejected at 01:15 UTC. The dip to the 0.8334 Asian low was bought back, leaving price mid-range at 0.8340 with RSI neutral and ATR compressed.
Support: 0.83343, 0.8332, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 asian high breaks the range and re-opens the 0.8358 prior high
Loss of the 0.8334 asian low exposes the 0.8332 swing low and then the 0.8327 london low
London open is the first test of the Asian range; ranges this tight often resolve early
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; the SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
02:02 UTC
Range after NY rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 0.83405
Lower highs from 0.8358 NY high, Asian range 0.8332–0.8346.
USDCHF is mid-Asia inside a 0.8332–0.8346 Asian range. It got there after the 0.8358 NY high was rejected in a sharp 18:00 UTC drop, which coincided with the late US-Iran deal headlines. The 01:00 UTC push stalled at the 0.8346 asian high near the 50–61.8% fib of the NY drop, extending lower highs, while the 0.8334 swing low held; price sits just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) ~46.
Support: 0.83343, 0.83316, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8346 asian high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 0.8358 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.8332 asian low exposes the 0.8327 london low
London open at 07:00 UTC and Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC are the first tests of the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 0.8332, pressing Asian range top.
Asia session has built higher lows off the 0.8332 rollover low and is testing the 0.8346 asia high, around the 50% retrace of yesterday's late-NY drop from the 0.8359 ny high. The pair is holding near 16-month highs with USD supported by 10Y yields above 5.2%. RSI(14) sits near 67 and ATR(14) near 3 pips, so the range is tight and compressed.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83316
Resistance: 0.83461, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8350 round number exposes the 0.8359 ny high
Break of the 0.8340 asia low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 0.8332 rollover low
Swiss ZEW 08:00 UTC, then US ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Sep 30 month- and quarter-end flows can distort the London and NY session ranges
01:16 UTC
Sideways after NY spike and reversal · RSI 56 · price 0.8342
Tight Asian range above rollover low, below NY high.
NY hours printed a 0.8358 ny high before a sharp 18:00 UTC rejection took back about 24 pips. The rollover low at 0.8332 held, and the Asian session has compressed into a 0.8340–0.8345 band sitting on the 50% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 3 pips. The move stalled despite yield-driven USD demand.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8345, 0.8350, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8340 asian low reopens the 0.8332 rollover low; losing that exposes the 0.8327 london low
Break above the 0.8345 asian high puts the 0.8350 london high and 0.8358 ny high back in play
London open and Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC could break the Asian range
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; month-end flows add two-way risk
Double low at 0.8332, tight 0.8340–0.8345 box beneath the Asian high.
The 18:00 UTC drop from the 0.8358 prior high put in a double low near 0.8332. The early-Asia rebound stalled at the 0.8345 Asian high, which sits on the 50% sell-off fib. Price is now compressing between the 0.8340 range low and 0.8345, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 3 pips, while the broader USD bid on 5.2%+ yields stays in the background.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8332
Resistance: 0.8345, 0.8358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8345 asian high clears the 50% sell-off fib and opens the path back toward the 0.8358 prior high
Break below the 0.8340 range low exposes the 0.8332 double low; losing it negates the double bottom
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Quarter-end (Sep 30) rebalancing flows may produce erratic two-way moves around the range
Tight Asian range after a higher low off 0.8332, capped below the NY drop's 50% retrace.
Asia session is holding a tight 0.8341–0.8345 range after a rebound from the 0.8332 swing low, stalling at the 50% fib of the late-NY drop from the 0.8359 NY high. The USD bid on 5.2%+ yields is keeping the pair elevated, and RSI(14) near 63 shows no extreme.
Support: 0.83411, 0.83316, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83452, 0.83531
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8345 asian high opens the path to the 0.8353 prior swing and the 0.8359 NY high
Break below the 0.8341 asian low puts the rising support line and the 0.8332 swing low back in focus
Loss of 0.8332 exposes the 0.8327 london low and negates the higher-low read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Recovering after NY-hours drop, lower high in place · RSI 60 · price 0.83438
Double bottom at 0.8332, tight Asian box capped at 50% fib.
The late-NY slide from the 0.8359 session high twice found a floor at the 0.8332 swing low, forming a double bottom. The early Asia session rebound has stalled at the 50% fib near 0.8345, and price is compressing above a 0.8341 Asian low, with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR around 3 pips. Firm US yields and Fed hike pricing keep the pair near its highs, but the prior high at 0.8350 from London hours still caps the structure.
Support: 0.8341, 0.8332, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8345, 0.8350, 0.8359
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8345 50% fib exposes the 0.8350 prior high, then the 0.8359 session high
Loss of the 0.8341 asian low and the rising support line puts the 0.8332 swing low back in play
Break below the 0.8327 london low would negate the double bottom and extend the lower-high sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; SNB Quarterly Bulletin follows at 13:00 UTC
Quarter-end flows on Sep 30 may distort price action through the London and NY sessions
00:16 UTC
Intraday range after a late-NY sell-off, stabilising · RSI 58 · price 0.83424
Rejection at 0.8358 ny high, twin lows at 0.8332, early-Asia compression 0.8342–0.8345.
USD/CHF was rejected at the 0.8358 ny high with an 18-pip drop late in the NY session. Demand then held twin lows near 0.8332 on either side of the rollover dip, and early Asia is compressing at 0.8342–0.8345, stalling near 50% of the NY sell-off just above the ema20. Yield-driven USD demand keeps dips shallow, with RSI(14) at about 58 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8332, 0.83271
Resistance: 0.83452, 0.83495, 0.83585
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8345 asia high and the 50% fib level opens the 0.8350 london high
Loss of the 0.8340 ema20 returns focus to the 0.8332 twin lows; a break there exposes the 0.8327 london low
A reclaim of the 0.8358 ny high would negate the late-NY rejection
Swiss ZEW at 08:00 UTC, US ADP and Core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC and the SNB Quarterly Bulletin at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read