USDJPY slid from 162.5 toward the 160.63 session low amid suspected MoF intervention, then based around the 161.00 psych level through NY. Thin Asian trade has lifted price to 161.34, edging above the 161.15 consolidation top with RSI(14) climbing near 61.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.47
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.47 prior high extends the recovery
Loss of 161.00 psych reopens the 160.63 session low
Intervention tail risk remains an ever-present catalyst
USDJPY snapped back to ~161.34 after the violent intervention-driven flush toward 160.63, and has since ground higher through the quiet Asia session. Price is now pressing the session high at 161.35, RSI(14) around 64 with ATR compressed near 6 pips.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.35, 161.47, 161.60
What it said to watch
Break above 161.35 opens the path back toward 161.47/161.60
Loss of 161.00 psych level reopens the 160.75/160.63 lows
Intervention tail risk remains an ever-present catalyst near 40-yr highs
USD/JPY was slammed from the 162.60 area to 160.63 through London-NY hours amid suspected MoF intervention, then based around 161.05. Asia has ground it higher into 161.27, now pressing the 161.34 session high; RSI(14) mid-range with quiet, low-volume candles.
Support: 161.05, 160.63
Resistance: 161.34, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.34 opens the path to 161.47
Failure to hold 161.05 range base reopens 160.63
Further MoF intervention headlines could snap this read
23:31 UTC
Recovering off intervention low, drifting up · RSI 57 · price 161.273
Basing above 161.00 after sharp flush.
USD/JPY was slammed from ~162.5 to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, then based above the 161.00 handle. Asia session is drifting up on thin volume, last print 161.27 pressing recent-high resistance at 161.30 with RSI mid-range.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.30 opens the path to 161.60
Failure to hold 161.00 re-exposes the 160.75 session low
Any fresh MoF intervention headline could sharply reprice this read
Session low set, consolidation then push off the base.
USD/JPY sold off through the European/NY session to a 160.63 session low on intervention-flavoured flows, then based around 161.00 and pushed up to 161.30 in thin Asia hours. RSI(14) near 61 as the recovery grinds; price sits above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.60
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 session high opens the path to 161.60
Failure to hold 161.00 round number reopens the 160.63 session low
23:16 UTC
Downtrend stabilising after sweep · RSI 61 · price 161.258
Consolidation off sweep low, higher lows.
USDJPY was slammed from 162.60 to a 160.63 sweep low on suspected MoF intervention, then based and ground back up. Price is now pressing the session high at 161.30 after a shallow consolidation between 160.85 and 161.30.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.64
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 opens the path to 161.64
Failure to hold 160.85 reopens the 160.63 sweep low
Renewed intervention headlines can force sharp two-way moves
23:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, now basing · RSI 57 · price 161.251
Sharp drop then consolidation above 161.00.
Suspected-intervention drop from ~162.60 toward 160.63 defined the day; price has since based around 161.00 and drifted back to 161.25 in quiet Asia hours, retracing roughly a third of the drop. RSI(14) mid-range, no momentum extreme, with the session high at 161.30 capping the recovery.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.30 opens 161.64
Loss of 161.00 base re-exposes 160.63 session low
MoF intervention headlines can whip this read sharply
23:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, base building · RSI 61 · price 161.251
Consolidation with higher lows after sharp drop.
USDJPY was slammed >150 pips off the 162.2 area to a 160.63 session low amid suspected-intervention talk, then based out and is grinding higher toward 161.30. Price now sits above EMA20/50 in a tight consolidation, RSI(14) mid-60s with no extreme in play.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.60
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 opens the path to 161.60
Failure to hold 161.00 re-exposes the 160.63 session low
MoF intervention headlines remain a two-way risk into thin Asian liquidity
22:46 UTC
Recovering after sharp drop · RSI 61 · price 161.254
Basing above spike low, grinding up.
USDJPY sold off from 162.6 to a 160.63 spike low on suspected MoF intervention, then based around 160.85 and is grinding higher in thin Asian trade, now at 161.25. RSI(14) near 61, ATR compressed to ~6 pips as the session range stays quiet ahead of London.
Support: 161.05, 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.34, 161.49
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.34 swing high opens path back toward the 161.49 prior high
Loss of the 161.05 range floor exposes the 160.85 base and 160.63 spike low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could sharply reset this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 61 · price 161.254
Base holding above 160.63 after selloff.
USD/JPY sold off ~180 pips from 162.60 to a 160.63 sweep low through the London-NY hours on suspected MoF intervention. Asia session has ground back to 161.25 off the 160.85 base, RSI(14) recovering to ~61 and price back above EMA20.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.60, 162.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.60 opens the path back to 162.00
Loss of 160.85 base re-exposes the 160.63 sweep low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could force another sharp leg
Consolidation near range top after sharp reversal.
Asia session grinding sideways between 161.00 and 161.17 after the sharp reversal from the 163.00 area to a 160.63 session low, with suspected MoF intervention doing the work per market talk. Price now presses the range top at 161.17 on thin late-session volume, RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.17 opens the path toward 161.60
Failure to hold 161.00 exposes the 160.63 session low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could sharply shift this read
22:31 UTC
Recovering off lows, consolidating · RSI 57 · price 161.15
Basing above session low, pressing range top.
USDJPY has clawed back from the sharp NFP/suspected-intervention slide off 162.5 to the 160.63 session low, now grinding a tight 160.85-161.17 consolidation in thin late-session trade. Price is pressing the session high at 161.17 with RSI mid-range and ATR compressed to ~6 pips.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.17 opens the path toward 161.47 prior high
Failure to hold 160.85 range base re-exposes the 160.63 session low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could force sharp two-way moves
22:16 UTC
Sharp drop, now flat · RSI 54 · price 161.122
Consolidation above 161.00 after intervention selloff.
USDJPY collapsed from 162.60 to 160.63 on suspected MoF 'ambush' intervention, then based and clawed back above the 161.00 pivot. Price now grinds in a tight 161.00-161.17 range on thin late-session flow, RSI mid-band with no momentum edge.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.17 opens a retest toward the 161.60 prior high
Loss of 161.00 pivot reopens 160.63 session low
Renewed or verbal MoF intervention could spike JPY 100+ pips and break this range
22:16 UTC
Downtrend cooling, now flat · RSI 55 · price 161.122
Basing above 161.00 after sharp selloff.
USD/JPY dumped from 162.5 to a 160.63 session low on the suspected intervention squeeze, then based back above the 161.00 pivot. Asia hours are quiet with volume drying up — price is coiling in a tight 161.00–161.17 range, RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.17 opens the path back toward 161.49
Loss of 161.00 pivot exposes 160.63 session low
Renewed MoF intervention or verbal escalation could drive another 100+ pip JPY spike
22:01 UTC
Down then flat, consolidating · RSI 47 · price 161.095
Tight range after sharp drop.
USD/JPY collapsed from 162.20 to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, then based and reclaimed the 161.00 pivot. Price has since coiled in a tight 161.00-161.17 band through Asia hours on thin volume, RSI neutral near 47.
Support: 161.00, 160.75
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 pivot reopens 160.75 session low
Close above 161.17 session high exposes the 161.47 swing high
USDJPY collapsed from 162.60 to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, then based and has spent the last several hours consolidating 160.85–161.17 with the 161.00 pivot holding as support. Volume has thinned into the late session and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 51, no fresh momentum in either direction.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.30 would extend the retracement of the intervention drop
Failure to hold 160.85 reopens the 160.63 intervention low
Renewed MoF intervention or verbal escalation could produce another 100+ pip spike
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 53 · price 161.11
Consolidation above the intervention low.
USD/JPY was hammered from 162.55 to a 160.63 session low on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by broad USD selling. Price has since based and is now ranging tightly between the 161.00 pivot and 161.17 swing high in thin Asia hours, RSI(14) back to neutral near 53.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 pivot opens 160.63 session low then 160.50
Reclaim above 161.17 swing high needed to extend the bounce toward 161.47
Renewed MoF intervention or verbal escalation could trigger another sharp JPY spike
21:46 UTC
Downtrend cooling into consolidation · RSI 53 · price 161.11
Range-bound above 161.00 after sharp drop.
USDJPY dumped from ~162.6 toward 160.63 on the suspected MoF intervention overhang and broad post-NFP-miss USD selling, then stabilised. Price is now consolidating in a tight 161.00–161.17 band through the low-volume Asia hours, RSI back to neutral, ATR compressing to ~6 pips.
Support: 161.00, 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close below 161.00 pivot reopens 160.85 then the 160.63 session low
Close above 161.17 session high targets the 161.47 swing
Renewed MoF intervention headlines could trigger another 100+ pip JPY spike
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalled · RSI 49 · price 161.092
Basing after sharp drop.
USD/JPY collapsed from 162.60 to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, then based around the 161.00 pivot. Price now coiling 160.90–161.17 in thin late-session trade, RSI(14) flat near 49 with no momentum either way.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close below 161.00 pivot opens 160.63 swing low then 160.50
Reclaim of 161.17 session high exposes 161.47 prior swing
Renewed intervention headlines could produce another 100+ pip candle
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 52 · price 161.092
Range after sharp sell-off, holding 161.00.
USDJPY slumped from 162.60 to a 160.63 session low on suspected Tokyo/MoF intervention during NY hours, then stabilised. Early Asia now grinds a tight 161.00–161.17 range with RSI(14) neutral near 52; the 161.00 prior-resistance-turned-support is holding.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 opens the path to 160.50
Reclaim of 161.17 range top needed to ease the downside bias
Renewed MoF intervention/verbal escalation could trigger fresh 100+ pip spikes
USDJPY is grinding sideways around 161.00 in thin Asia hours after the intervention-driven slump from the 40-year highs near 163. Price is boxed between 160.85 support and the 161.17 session high, RSI(14) flat near mid-range with ATR compressed to roughly 7 pips.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.30
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 reopens the retrace toward the drop origin
Loss of 160.85 exposes the 160.63 session low
Renewed MoF intervention headlines could produce another 100+ pip move
21:16 UTC
Down then basing · RSI 53 · price 161.097
Range after sharp drop.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.2 to 160.63 mid-window on suspected MoF intervention, then based around the 161.00 pivot. Now ranging 160.75–161.17 in thin post-NY/Asia trade, RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.50
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.75 opens 160.50 and revives intervention overhang
Reclaim above 161.17 puts 161.47 back in range
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Sharp drop, now basing · RSI 53 · price 161.112
Tight consolidation post-intervention.
USDJPY was slammed from the ~162.6 area down to 160.63 mid-window on suspected MoF intervention after fresh 40-year highs near 163, then based and coiled into a tight 160.85-161.17 range through the Asia session. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 with ATR compressed to ~6 pips as the market digests the drop.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.30, 161.53
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 opens the path to the 161.53 swing high
Break below 160.85 session low reopens the 160.63 spike low and raises further intervention risk
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Sharp reversal, now basing · RSI 56 · price 161.112
Consolidation above 161.00 after intervention-style drop.
USD/JPY slammed from the 40-year high near 163 to 161 on suspected MoF intervention, then flushed again to 160.63 before stabilising. Price is now consolidating 160.85–161.17 with RSI back to mid-range and ATR compressing as the move digests.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.17, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00, then 160.50, would signal intervention traction
Reclaim of 161.60 needed to unwind the drop
ISM Services / FOMC minutes ahead could re-ignite the USD leg
USD/JPY sold off hard through the London-NY session, sliding from 162.60 to a 160.63 low amid suspected MoF intervention speculation. Price has since based between 160.85 and 161.17, reclaiming the 161.00 pivot; RSI(14) back to mid-range with no directional impulse into late NY.
Support: 161.00, 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.85 reopens the 160.63 session low
Reclaim of 161.17 needed to extend the recovery off the lows
Thin late-session liquidity leaves intervention-style spikes a risk
20:46 UTC
Recovering off lows, consolidating · RSI 58 · price 161.11
Based after sharp drop, higher lows.
USD/JPY slammed from ~162 to a 160.63 session low on suspected MoF intervention, then based and clawed back to 161.11 — roughly a 50% retrace of that drop. Late-NY price is consolidating 160.75–161.17 with a chain of higher lows; RSI(14) mid-range, ATR compressed near 6 pips.
Support: 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.34, 161.49
What it said to watch
Close above 161.17 session high opens the path to 161.34/161.49
Loss of 160.75 swing low exposes the 160.63 session low
Renewed MoF intervention risk can spike volatility either way
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 50 · price 161.078
Range after intervention-driven sell-off.
USD/JPY plunged from ~162.60 to a session low of 160.63 in a sharp intervention-driven flush, then based and recovered to range between 160.85 and 161.17. Price now sits at the 0.236 retracement of that drop near 161.08 with RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.85 reopens the session low at 160.63
M15 close above 161.17 breaks the range top toward 161.47
Renewed MoF intervention could spike JPY sharply and invalidate the range read
20:31 UTC
Sharp down-leg, now flat · RSI 49 · price 161.078
Consolidation near lows after flush.
USDJPY flushed from 162.6 toward 160.63 during London on suspected MoF-intervention talk, printing outsized bearish candles. Price has since consolidated in a 160.85–161.17 band into late NY, holding just above the 161.00 pivot with RSI back near neutral.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 161.00 reopens the 160.63 session low
Recovery above 161.17 targets the 161.47 swing pivot
162.00–163.00 remains the intervention danger zone flagged in the digest
20:16 UTC
Down then basing · RSI 49 · price 161.094
Consolidation above session low.
USD/JPY snapped ~200 pips off 40-yr highs near 163.00 into 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, and has since carved a rounded base, holding 160.75 and grinding back to 161.17 through NY. Now coiling around 161.09 with RSI(14) neutral near 49; session high at 161.17 caps.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.60
What it said to watch
Close below 161.00 exposes the 160.75 base and session low at 160.63
Close above 161.17 session high opens the path to 161.60
Renewed MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could reprice this sharply
ISM Services Mon is the next USD catalyst
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 161.00 · RSI 53 · price 161.094
Sharp sell-off then consolidation off 160.63.
USDJPY plunged over 200 pips from 162.60 to 160.63 amid MoF intervention speculation, then based and ground back to 161.09. Price now consolidating below the 161.17 range top, carving higher lows off 160.75; RSI(14) mid-range near 53.
Support: 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.30, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close above 161.30 opens the path toward 161.47
Failure to hold 160.63 confirms a fresh lower low
Renewed MoF intervention risk keeps moves near 161.00 two-way and sharp
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 54 · price 161.136
Consolidation above session low after sharp drop.
USD/JPY plunged from ~162.6 to 160.63 on the NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, then based out and ground higher into late NY. Now consolidating 160.75–161.17 with RSI recovered off the lows to mid-range.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.17 session high opens the path to 161.30 prior high
Break below 161.00 psych exposes the 160.63 session low
Renewed approach to 162.00-163.00 revives intervention risk; ISM Services Mon a further catalyst
USDJPY plunged from ~162.60 to 160.63 mid-window on suspected MoF intervention, then based around the 161.00 pivot and ground higher into late NY. Price now probing the session high at 161.17 with RSI mid-range; buyers stepped in twice near 160.75.
Support: 161.00, 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.17, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close above 161.17 session high extends the recovery toward 161.47 swing high
Loss of 161.00 pivot reopens 160.75 session low and 160.63 swing low
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could snap this range either way
USD/JPY carved a session low at 160.63 during the suspected MoF intervention flush from the 163 highs, then ground out higher lows into late NY back to 161.16. RSI near 60 and price holding the 161.00 pivot; the recovery is contained but constructive.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.30, 161.47, 162.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 pivot reopens 160.63 session low
Break above 161.30 swing high extends recovery toward 161.47 prior high
162.00-163.00 remains the intervention danger zone flagged in context
ISM Services Mon could reset the USD leg of this read
19:46 UTC
Recovering off lows, grinding up · RSI 58 · price 161.159
Basing above 161.00 after sharp drop.
USD/JPY snapped ~200 pips off the ~162.60 area on suspected MoF intervention, bottoming at 160.63 during NY hours. Price has since based above the 161.00 pivot and ground back to 161.16, with RSI(14) near 58 — no extreme, momentum shallow.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.20, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close above 161.20 opens the path to 161.47
Failure to hold 161.00 exposes 160.50
162.00-163.00 remains an intervention danger zone
19:31 UTC
Sharp reversal, now basing · RSI 55 · price 161.133
Consolidation above 161.00, higher lows forming.
USD/JPY was slammed from ~162.6 to a 160.63 session low on suspected MoF intervention as the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) hit the dollar. Price has since based above the 161.00 pivot, carving higher lows and grinding back toward 161.13 on thin late-NY volume; RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.49, 162.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 reopens the 160.63 session low and 160.50 support
Reclaim of 161.49 swing high needed to challenge the 162.00 intervention zone
Renewed MoF intervention risk near 162.00-163.00 if the bounce extends
19:31 UTC
Sharp reversal, now consolidating · RSI 57 · price 161.133
Range after impulsive drop, micro higher lows.
Suspected MoF intervention snapped USD/JPY from ~163 down to a 160.63 swing low, after which price has consolidated in a 160.85–161.15 band through late NY hours. RSI has recovered off the lows to ~57 as the pair nudges the range top at 161.15, building a chain of micro higher lows.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.15, 161.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.15 range top opens the path to 161.53 prior high
Loss of 160.85 range low exposes the 160.63 swing low and 160.50
Return toward 162.00–163.00 revives intervention risk noted in the digest
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 53 · price 161.079
Range-bound above 161.00 after sharp reversal.
USDJPY was slammed from ~162.6 to 160.63 earlier on suspected MoF intervention, then based out around the 161.00 pivot. Late NY session is flat, coiling between 161.00 and 161.12 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 161.00, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below 161.00 pivot opens a retest of 160.63 swing low
Reclaim of 161.30 prior swing would negate the consolidation read
Return toward the 162.00-163.00 zone revives intervention risk
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 52 · price 161.079
Range-bound after sharp reversal.
USD/JPY reversed roughly 200 pips from the 162.6 area on suspected MoF intervention, and has spent the NY session consolidating between 160.75 and 161.12. A sweep of the 160.63 lows held and price is now grinding at the range top with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 160.75, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 162.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.12 range top would break the NY consolidation higher
Failure to hold 160.75 session low opens the 160.50 support
Return toward 162.00–163.00 revives the intervention danger zone
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, now flat · RSI 48 · price 161.057
Consolidation above the lows.
USDJPY collapsed from ~163 to the 160.63 session low on suspected MoF intervention, then based and is now consolidating around 161.00 into the late NY session. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 48 with ATR compressed to ~8 pips as the tape flattens.
Support: 161.00, 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.85 reopens the 160.63 session low
Reclaim of 161.34 needed to challenge the prior pivot structure
Intervention risk elevated in holiday-thinned liquidity can force sharp moves
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp drop · RSI 54 · price 161.057
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.6 to a 160.63 spike low on suspected MoF intervention, then based and ground back to 161.05. Price now consolidating in a tight 160.85–161.12 range with RSI(14) neutral near 53; higher lows off the spike low keep the recovery intact for now.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close below 160.85 range low reopens the 160.63 spike low
Break above 161.12 range top exposes 161.47 swing high
Renewed intervention flow around 161–162 could trigger another sharp squeeze
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 51 · price 161.06
Sharp decline into consolidation near lows.
USDJPY collapsed from ~162.6 to 160.63 during the London session on suspected MoF intervention, then based and clawed back to 161.06. Price has coiled into a tight 160.85–161.12 range through the NY session, RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 160.85, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.50
What it said to watch
Close above 161.12 opens the path back toward 161.50
Break below 160.85 exposes the 160.63 swing low, then 160.50
Renewed MoF intervention chatter could trigger another sharp squeeze
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 161.06
Consolidation after sharp drop.
USDJPY collapsed ~200 pips off 162.60 in the London session — the classic signature of suspected MoF intervention flagged in the JPY read — then based around 160.85. NY hours have held a tight 160.85–161.12 range, price stalling into the 23.6% retrace of the drop with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 160.85, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.30, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close above 161.12 range top opens 161.30/161.47
Loss of 160.85 range low re-exposes the 160.63 session low then 160.50
Renewed MoF intervention chatter could spike liquidity in thin conditions
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 49 · price 161.082
Post-flush consolidation, higher lows forming.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~163 40-yr highs toward 161 on suspected MoF intervention, capped by a sharp sweep to 160.63 during NY hours. Price now consolidating between 160.85 and 161.16, RSI(14) neutral near 50 after the flush, with a shallow series of higher lows off the session low.
Support: 160.85, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.16, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 opens the 160.50 psych area
Break above 161.16 recent high exposes 161.47
MoF intervention headlines could trigger another squeeze
Consolidation above session low, minor higher lows.
USDJPY sold off hard through the London-NY window, collapsing from 162.5 toward a 160.63 session low on suspected MoF intervention after the ~163 40-year high. Price is now grinding in a tight 160.85–161.12 range into late NY, RSI(14) back to neutral near 51.
Support: 160.85, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.50
What it said to watch
Close below 160.63 session low opens the 160.50 psych level
Reclaim of 161.50 swing high would ease the downside pressure
Intervention risk remains elevated in holiday-thinned liquidity — sharp squeezes possible
USDJPY collapsed from ~162.6 to a 160.63 swing low in a violent, driver-less drop bearing the signature of suspected MoF intervention, and has since based between 160.75 and 161.12. RSI(14) has recovered off the lows to mid-range as price consolidates just above the 161.00 pivot.
Support: 160.75, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close below 160.50 psych opens further downside
Reclaim of 161.47 prior high negates the drop
Intervention risk elevated in holiday-thinned liquidity near 161.00
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 54 · price 161.07
Sharp drop then consolidation above 160.75.
NY session saw USD/JPY collapse from ~162.6 to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention as the crowded JPY short unwound. Price has since based and is grinding a tight 160.75–161.12 range, RSI(14) back near neutral; the recovery is holding above EMA20 but capped under 161.12.
Support: 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.47
What it said to watch
Close above 161.12 extends the recovery toward 161.47
Failure to hold 160.75 reopens the 160.63 session low then 160.50
Renewed MoF intervention risk elevated in holiday-thinned liquidity
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 51 · price 161.061
Sharp sell-off into consolidation, higher lows.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.60 to a 160.63 spike low — the signature of suspected MoF intervention layered on top of the soft 57K US NFP miss. Price has since based between 160.76 and 161.12, carving higher lows; RSI(14) back near 50 with momentum neutral.
Support: 160.76, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.30
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 161.12 opens the path back toward the 161.30 prior swing
Loss of 160.76 swing low re-exposes the 160.63 spike low and 160.50
Renewed MoF intervention chatter could trigger a fresh low-liquidity squeeze
USD/JPY collapsed from 162.5 toward 160.63 through the NY session after the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) and suspected MoF intervention. Price is now consolidating a tight 160.85–161.12 band, RSI(14) recovering off oversold back to neutral.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 confirms a lower low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of 161.47 prior high would signal the selloff is stalling
Repeat MoF intervention or Fed pushback could sharply shift this read
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after sharp drop · RSI 49 · price 161.087
Impulsive leg down, now basing 160.75–161.12.
USDJPY collapsed over 200 pips from 162.6 into 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by the soft 57K June NFP miss. Price is now consolidating between 160.75 and 161.12 with RSI back near neutral; the recent-high cap at 161.12 has held into the close at 161.087.
Support: 160.85, 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.50
What it said to watch
Close above 161.12 recent high opens the path back to 161.50 prior supp
Break below 160.85 session low exposes 160.627 swing low then 160.50 next support
Repeated MoF intervention risk elevated in thin liquidity — any order-flow spike could reset the range
USD/JPY collapsed over 100 pips from 161.64 into 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, then bled further as the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) kept the dollar offered. Since then price has carved a base above 160.75 and is grinding back toward the 161.12 session high, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.12 opens the path to 161.47
Failure to hold 160.75 exposes the 160.63 crash low
Renewed MoF intervention risk in thin liquidity could reset this read fast
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing after flush · RSI 55 · price 161.096
Sharp intervention-driven drop, basing near lows.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.6 to a 160.63 session low on the June NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, wiping out the 40yr-high push. Price has since based and ground back to 161.10, holding above EMA20 with RSI recovering to the mid-50s; supply capped the bounce near 161.16.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.16, 161.47, 161.64
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 161.47 opens the path back toward the 161.64 swing high
Failure to hold 160.63 session low exposes the 160.50 psych level
Intervention risk remains elevated in holiday-thin liquidity — sharp JPY squeezes possible
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 57 · price 161.096
Sharp drop then consolidation near lows.
USDJPY collapsed over 150 pips from the 162.60 area into 160.63 on the NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, then based between 160.75 and 161.12. Price is grinding back toward the session high at 161.12 with RSI recovering to the mid-50s.
Support: 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.34, 161.60
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 161.34 opens the path back to 161.60
Loss of 160.63 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
Repeat MoF intervention risk elevated in thin liquidity near 161.00
USDJPY collapsed from the 162.60 zone toward 160.63 during the NY session as a big June NFP miss (57K) and suspected MoF intervention flushed JPY shorts. Price is now consolidating between the session low and 161.30, holding the 161.00 psych level with RSI recovering from oversold near 47.5.
Support: 161.00, 160.627
Resistance: 161.30
What it said to watch
Reclaim above the 161.30 swing high would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 160.63 session low opens 160.50
Intervention risk elevated in thin liquidity — sharp JPY spikes possible
Basing after sharp sell-off, consolidating near 161.00.
USDJPY collapsed from the 162.60 area to a 160.63 spike low during NY hours — the signature of suspected MoF intervention amplified by the 57K US NFP miss. Price has since carved a tight range around 161.00, RSI(14) recovering to neutral; the recent high at 161.11 caps and 160.85 is holding as support.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.11, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.30 would break the descending resistance and unwind the consolidation
Loss of 160.85 reopens the 160.63 spike low
Fresh MoF intervention chatter could reignite volatility in low holiday liquidity
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.6 to a 160.63 session low on the suspected MoF intervention that dragged the pair off 40-yr highs, then based around the 161.00 round number. Price is now consolidating between 160.76 and the 161.11 recent high with RSI(14) mid-range; downside momentum has stalled but there is no reclaim of the 161.30 prior swing.
Support: 160.758, 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.01, 161.11, 161.30
What it said to watch
Close below 160.627 session low opens 160.50 next support
Reclaim of 161.30 prior swing needed to shift the base higher
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 160.993
Sharp break lower, now ranging above session low.
USDJPY collapsed through the NY session from ~162.2 to a 160.63 low — the signature of suspected MoF intervention after Wednesday's soft US data and today's June NFP miss (57K vs 110K). Price is now consolidating between 160.75 and 161.10, holding above the sweep low.
Support: 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.10, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 161.30 prior high negates the near-term breakdown
Intervention risk elevated in thin liquidity — another MoF move could spike range
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 48 · price 161.011
Consolidation above 161.00 after sharp NFP drop.
The June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) drove USDJPY to a session low of 160.63 at the 12:30 UTC print, extending an earlier suspected-intervention slide from 163.00. Price has since recovered to 161.00 — prior resistance now acting as support — and is grinding sideways in a 160.75–161.16 range through NY hours.
Support: 160.75, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.16, 161.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 160.63 confirms a lower-low and reopens 160.50
Reclaim of 161.16 would put 161.50 prior resistance back in play
Fresh MoF intervention or Fed speak could spike this thin-liquidity range
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing · RSI 47 · price 161.011
Sharp selloff, basing near 161.00.
USD/JPY collapsed from 162.6 to a 160.63 session low on the June NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, then based back toward 161.00. RSI(14) recovering off oversold, price hugging EMA20 while capped below EMA50; the descending highs and 161.12 remain the near-term ceiling.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.60 breaks the descending highs and negates the downtrend read
Failure to hold 160.50 psych opens further downside
Thin-liquidity MoF intervention risk could spike this read either way
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 52 · price 161.083
Consolidation above session low.
USDJPY collapsed through NY hours from 162.60 to 160.63 on the NFP miss (57K vs 110K) and a suspected MoF intervention spike, then based above 160.75. Price is now grinding higher lows into 161.08, holding a tight consolidation below the 161.16 session high; RSI recovered to mid-range.
Support: 160.75, 160.63
Resistance: 161.16, 161.50
What it said to watch
Close above 161.16 opens the path back to 161.50
Failure to hold 160.75 exposes the 160.63 range low
Renewed MoF intervention could trigger a sharp low-liquidity move
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 54 · price 161.083
Consolidation above session lows.
USDJPY was slammed from 162.6 toward 160.63 during NY hours on the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) amplified by a suspected MoF intervention spike. Price is now basing 160.75-161.15, RSI(14) recovered to mid-50s off oversold; buyers stepped in twice near 160.75 while 161.60 caps the bounce.
Support: 160.63
Resistance: 161.16, 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.16 opens the path back toward 161.60
Failure to hold 160.63 confirms a fresh lower-low
Renewed MoF intervention chatter could trigger a sharp squeeze
USDJPY sold off through the NY session after the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) undercut the Dollar, with a sharp low-liquidity drop to 160.63 carrying the intervention-style signature flagged in the context. Price has since stabilised, coiling between 160.75 and 161.10 with RSI(14) recovering off the lows.
Support: 160.75, 160.50
Resistance: 161.00, 161.16
What it said to watch
Close above 161.00 (round number) opens 161.16 swing high
Failure to hold 160.75 session low exposes 160.50 support
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 43 · price 160.948
Sharp leg down then basing above 160.63.
USDJPY collapsed from ~162.60 toward 160.63 during NY hours on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K). Price is now basing between the 160.75 session low and 161.05 prior support, RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 42.
Support: 160.75, 160.627
Resistance: 161.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.627 swing low confirms a lower-low
Reclaim above 161.05 prior support would ease the downside pressure
Fresh intervention flow or thin holiday liquidity can spike volatility
Lower highs and lows, now consolidating just under 161.00.
USD/JPY was flushed twice — a suspected intervention snapback into the London open and a sharper leg down on the 57K NFP miss (vs 110K f/c) at the NY open, printing a 160.63 session low. Price has since stabilised in a 160.75–161.10 band with RSI(14) recovering off the lows; 161.00 caps overhead and buyers stepped in around 160.75.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.00, 161.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.50 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 161.00 negates the near-term downside pressure
MoF intervention overhang keeps 100+ pip spike risk live on any move higher
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 41 · price 160.911
Lower highs, lower lows post-intervention drop.
USD/JPY collapsed from 162.6 toward 160.63 as the 57K NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention hit the pair; price now grinds sideways in a 160.75-161.11 band during NY hours with RSI(14) sub-45. Rally attempts have capped below 161.11 while the session low at 160.63 holds.
Support: 160.627
Resistance: 161.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 161.11 eases the downside pressure
Renewed intervention risk can force sharp two-way spikes
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 160.862
Lower highs, basing near session low.
USDJPY collapsed ~200 pips from the 162.6 area to a 160.63 low as the 57K NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention hit the pair through NY hours. Price is now consolidating in a tight 160.75–161.11 band just above the swing low, RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 41.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 opens the path to 160.50
Reclaim above 161.11 eases the downside pressure
Persistent intervention risk can force sharp 100+ pip snapbacks
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 160.862
Lower highs into session low, sideways under 161.00.
USDJPY collapsed ~180 pips into 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention layered onto the soft 57K NFP miss, then stalled. Price is now consolidating just under the 161.00 round number, capped by a chain of lower highs with RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 160.627
Resistance: 161.00, 161.158
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.00 opens a retest of the 161.16 swing high
Failure to hold 160.627 session low confirms a lower low
Renewed intervention headlines could trigger another sharp JPY spike
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp drop · RSI 41 · price 160.893
Lower highs into consolidation above 160.63.
USD/JPY collapsed from ~162.6 through the session on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K). Price is now basing between 160.63 and the 161.15 session high, RSI(14) around 41 with momentum flat.
Support: 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.15, 161.34
What it said to watch
Close below 160.63 swing low opens the 160.50 news support
Reclaim of 161.15 session high needed to challenge the 161.34 prior swing
Persistent MoF intervention risk can force sharp two-way spikes with no calendar trigger
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, holding near lows · RSI 41 · price 160.893
Lower highs, consolidating above session low.
USD/JPY collapsed through the NY session from ~162.6 to a 160.627 session low on the NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention. Price now consolidates between 160.83 and the 161.00 pivot, edging back toward the session low with RSI(14) mid-40s. The 161.00 pivot (prior support) is capping bounces.
Support: 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.627 confirms a lower low, opening the 160.50 psych level
Reclaim of the 161.00 pivot would ease the downside pressure
Renewed intervention risk near lows can force sharp two-way spikes
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after flush · RSI 43 · price 160.934
Sharp break lower, now ranging under 161.00.
USDJPY collapsed from ~162.6 to 160.63 on the soft US payrolls print (57K vs 110K) and suspected MoF intervention, a violent two-way flush. Price is now consolidating 160.63–161.16 below the 161.00 pivot, RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 42.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.00, 161.16
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.00 pivot opens the path back toward 161.16 session high
Failure to hold 160.63 swing low exposes the 160.50 psych level
Renewed suspected MoF intervention could force another sharp squeeze
Sharp intraday break lower, now basing near 161.00.
USDJPY collapsed from 162.50 through 161.00 on the soft 57K NFP miss and suspected MoF intervention, printing a session low at 160.63 before stabilising. Price is now chopping in a tight 160.83–161.12 band below both EMAs, RSI(14) recovering off oversold to ~41.
Support: 160.83, 160.50, 160.63
Resistance: 161.12, 161.60
What it said to watch
Close above 161.12 opens a retest of the 161.60 swing
Failure to hold 160.83 exposes the 160.50 news support
Downtrend, stabilising off lows · RSI 47 · price 161.064
Sharp selloff then basing near 161.00.
USD/JPY collapsed ~200 pips from 162.6 to a 160.63 swing low on suspected MoF intervention plus the 57K NFP miss, then based between 160.85 and the 161.12 session high. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-40s as price stalls under the 161.00 pivot.
Support: 160.85, 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.12, 161.20
What it said to watch
Loss of 160.627 swing low opens the 160.50 support
Close above 161.20 prior pivot would confirm a higher-high off the base
Persistent intervention risk can force sharp 100+ pip spikes on no fresh driver
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after sharp drop · RSI 44 · price 161.064
Lower highs into 161, now consolidating above pivot.
USD/JPY collapsed from the 162.6 area to 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by the soft 57K NFP miss. Price now consolidating 160.83–161.11, holding above the 161.00 pivot with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Both EMAs remain overhead after the drop.
Support: 161.00, 160.83, 160.63
Resistance: 161.47
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 161.47 negates the downside pressure
Renewed MoF intervention risk can force sharp 100+ pip swings
USD/JPY was slammed ~100+ pips from the 163 area into 160.63 through the session, driven by the soft US NFP print and suspected MoF intervention. Price is now basing 160.85–161.16 with RSI(14) recovering off ~40, carving higher lows above the session low.
Support: 160.85, 160.63
Resistance: 161.16, 161.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.16 opens the path to 161.30
Failure to hold 160.85 confirms a lower low toward the 160.63 session low
Persistent intervention risk can force sudden 100+ pip JPY spikes
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 43 · price 161.09
Lower highs, holding above 161.00 pivot.
USDJPY sold off in two legs — a suspected MoF-intervention drop from 162.6 in early European hours, then a fresh slide to 160.63 as the NY open reacted to the 57K NFP miss. Price has since based around the 161.00 pivot with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; 161.50 swing caps the bounce and a descending resistance line marks the lower highs.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.50, 162.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.50 confirms a lower-low continuation
Reclaim of 161.50 swing needed to ease downside pressure
Intervention risk persists on any spike back toward 162.00+
USDJPY dropped ~150 pips off 162.6 in two impulsive legs — the early-European air-pocket and a second flush through 161.00 during NY hours — moves tied to suspected MoF intervention and the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K). Price is now grinding along a session base near 160.63 with the 161.00 pivot flipped to resistance overhead; RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward 43.
Support: 161.00, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.50 confirms a lower low and extends the decline
Reclaim of 161.64 swing high negates the breakdown read
Persistent intervention risk can trigger sudden 100+ pip spikes on no calendar driver
USDJPY collapsed ~180 pips from 162.60 through the 161.00 pivot after the soft US NFP print and suspected MoF intervention. Selling has since stalled, with buyers stepping in twice around 160.85 and price basing back above 161.00; RSI(14) is recovering off oversold as the last low held above 160.63.
Support: 160.85, 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.50 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.60 would negate the intraday downtrend read
Renewed intervention risk near the 162.50-163.00 zone can trigger fresh 100+ pip spikes
USD/JPY sold off in two legs — a suspected MoF-intervention drop during European hours, then a fresh leg through 161.00 on the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K). Price now leaking back toward the 160.627 session low after failing to hold the 161.00 pivot; RSI(14) around 40, no reversal signal yet.
Support: 160.627, 160.50
Resistance: 161.00
What it said to watch
Close back above 161.00 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
Break of 160.627 session low opens 160.50
Persistent intervention risk can force sharp 100+ pip snapbacks with no calendar trigger
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, near session lows · RSI 39 · price 160.872
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY collapsed ~180 pips off 162.60 into the NY session, driven by the 57K NFP miss stacked on suspected MoF intervention off the 163 area. Price is pinned near 160.85 just above the 160.63 session low, RSI(14) subdued at ~38 with sellers capping every bounce below 161.00.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.02
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.00 would neutralise the lower-high chain
Renewed intervention risk near 162.50-163.00 could spike JPY violently
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, pressing lows · RSI 34 · price 160.879
Lower highs and lower lows after intervention drop.
USDJPY plunged through the NY session on suspected MoF intervention compounded by the 57K NFP miss, falling from ~162.60 to the session low at 160.627. Price bounced to 161.16 before rolling over again; now pinned near 160.85 with RSI(14) sub-35 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 160.627, 160.85
Resistance: 161.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below 160.63 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 161.00 psych zone would ease the downside pressure
Fresh MoF intervention or thin holiday liquidity could spike volatility
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, sharp selloff · RSI 30 · price 160.879
Lower highs, lower lows into session low.
USDJPY collapsed through the NY session from ~162.6 to a 160.63 session low on the soft 57K NFP print compounded by suspected MoF intervention. Price is hugging session lows near 160.88 with RSI(14) sub-30; the 161.00 psych level now caps.
Support: 160.63, 160.00
Resistance: 161.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 161.00 would ease the downside pressure
Break of 160.63 session low opens the path toward 160.00
Thin US holiday liquidity keeps repeat intervention-style spikes a risk
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp impulsive legs · RSI 38 · price 160.961
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY dumped through 161.00 on the 57K NFP miss at 12:30 UTC, extending an earlier intervention-style drop from the 162.60 area. Price now grinds at 160.96 after tagging a 160.63 session low; RSI(14) lifting off oversold but structure stays lower-highs/lower-lows.
Support: 160.63, 160.90
Resistance: 161.60
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.60 would break the lower-high chain
Loss of 160.63 session low confirms continuation
Fresh MoF intervention headlines could spike sharply in thin holiday liquidity
USD/JPY sold off hard through the day, plunging from 162.60 to a 160.627 session low on suspected MoF intervention compounded by the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K). Price is basing near 160.96 below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 35; the 161.16 recent high caps the bounce so far.
Support: 160.627, 160.00
Resistance: 161.16
What it said to watch
Loss of 160.627 session low opens the path toward the 160.00 psych level
Reclaim of 161.16 recent high would ease the downside pressure
Fresh MoF intervention or thin holiday liquidity could trigger sharp cross-yen spikes
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 39 · price 161.092
Lower highs and lower lows since London.
USDJPY sold off 150+ pips through the London-NY window on suspected MoF intervention, bottoming at 160.63 before a shallow bounce to 161.09 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Structure is a clean chain of lower highs; the 161.00 psych level is holding for now and 161.64 caps the rebound.
Support: 160.63, 161.00
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.64 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 160.63 session low confirms continuation lower
Fresh MoF intervention or thin holiday liquidity could spike cross-yen fast
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp legs lower · RSI 35 · price 161.092
Lower highs, lower lows after two impulsive drops.
USDJPY sold off in two legs — first a ~100-pip drop in early European trade bearing the footprint of suspected MoF intervention, then a fresh flush to 160.627 during NY hours on the soft 57K June NFP miss. Price is now trying to stabilise around 161.00, RSI(14) rebounding off oversold near 35 while both EMAs cap from above.
Support: 160.627, 161.00
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.640 would ease the downside pressure from this run
Break below 160.627 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Thin US holiday liquidity keeps two-way intervention risk elevated near multi-decade highs
USD/JPY was slammed 150+ pips off 162.5 in two impulse legs on suspected MoF intervention, compounded by the soft June NFP miss (57K vs 110K). The 160.627 low was swept and bought back toward 161.06, but price holds well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 39. Session low area 160.627 and the 161.00 psych level are the near-term pivots.
Support: 161.00, 160.627
Resistance: 161.64, 162.50
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 161.64 targets the 162.50 intervention zone and fresh official risk
Failure to hold 160.627 confirms lower-low continuation
Fed's Daly speech (13:45 UTC) could reprice the USD leg intraday
Lower highs and lower lows after intervention drop.
USD/JPY was slammed from the 162.50 area toward 161.00 on suspected MoF intervention, then took a second leg down to 160.63 before buyers stepped in to reclaim 161.00. Structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lows; RSI(14) near 40 with ATR(14) around 20 pips reflecting the violent expansion.
Support: 160.63
Resistance: 161.60
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 161.60 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 160.63 opens fresh lows
Fed's Daly speech (13:45 UTC) could re-price the USD leg
USDJPY sold off sharply into NY hours, a soft June NFP miss compounding earlier suspected MoF intervention to drive a break below the 161.30 pivot to a 160.63 session low. Price is now hugging the 161.00 round area after a shallow bounce, RSI(14) near 32; both EMAs sit overhead.
Support: 160.63, 160.50
Resistance: 161.30
What it said to watch
A close back above 161.30 pivot would ease downside pressure
Fresh MoF/BoJ rhetoric or intervention risk could trigger a squeeze
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp selloff · RSI 37 · price 161.001
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY was slammed over 100 pips into 160.63 on suspected MoF intervention compounded by the soft US June NFP miss, breaking the intraday range decisively lower. Price is stabilising just above 161.00 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the 161.64 swing high caps the bounce so far.
Support: 160.627
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 161.64 would ease the downside pressure
Break of 160.627 session low confirms continuation lower
Fresh MoF/BoJ intervention risk elevated near the 162.50 zone
USDJPY broke down hard on the 12:30 GMT NFP print, dropping ~90 pips through 161.00 to a session low at 160.627, extending the earlier intervention-driven slide from the 1986 highs. Price is scraping off the low at 160.817 with RSI(14) near 27, oversold on this timeframe.
Support: 160.627
Resistance: 161.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.00 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 160.627 confirms continuation lower
USDJPY collapsed 100+ pips into the NFP window on suspected MoF intervention, printing a session low at 160.627 after fresh 1986 highs near 162.50. RSI(14) is deeply oversold at ~21 and the last bar is a shallow bounce to 160.82; the psych 161.00 and prior range at 161.30 now cap overhead.
Support: 160.627
Resistance: 161.00, 161.30
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.00 would ease the intervention-driven flush
Failure to hold 160.627 confirms continuation toward psych 160
Fresh MoF intervention or Fed's Daly (13:45 GMT) could re-shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend after intervention flush · RSI 41 · price 161.114
Sharp break lower, basing near lows.
USDJPY was slammed 100+ pips from a fresh 1986 high near 162.50 to the 161.00 area on suspected MoF intervention/short-covering. Price is now basing below 161.64 session high; the final bar swept the interv low to 160.947 before closing back at 161.11.
Support: 160.90, 161.02
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 161.64 session high eases the flush read
Break and hold below 160.90 interv low confirms a lower low
Fresh MoF intervention or Fed's Daly (13:45 GMT) could reset this range
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp intervention leg · RSI 41 · price 161.114
Lower highs, lower lows since the drop.
USDJPY collapsed 100+ pips from the 162.50 area on suspected MoF intervention, printing a low near 160.90 and holding a downtrend of lower highs. Rejection at the 161.64 session high preceded the latest flush; NFP is landing now and dominates the next-bar read.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.64
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is live and could violently shift this read
M15 close back above 161.64 negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 160.90 confirms continuation of the intervention leg
12:16 UTC
Sharp sell-off, now basing · RSI 54 · price 161.607
Intervention low set, higher lows forming.
USD/JPY plunged 100+ pips off the 162.50 area into 160.90 on suspected MoF intervention, then based and clawed back to the 161.60 mid of that drop. Higher lows have printed since 160.90, price now holding just above the 50% retracement with RSI(14) recovered to the mid-50s.
Support: 161.02, 160.90
Resistance: 161.80, 161.95
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is imminent and will drive the next leg — this read is fragile into the print
Reclaim of 161.80/161.95 extends the bounce; loss of 161.02 reopens the 160.90 intervention low
Fresh MoF intervention near 162.50 would cap any squeeze
12:16 UTC
Sharp downdraft, now recovering · RSI 57 · price 161.607
Intervention flush off 40yr high, basing above 161.00.
USD/JPY snapped 100+ pips off the 1986 high near 162.50 on suspected MoF intervention, printing 160.90 during NY hours before recovering to 161.60. Price is now sitting at the 50% retrace of that flush, demand having stepped in twice around 161.00, with RSI(14) cooling back from oversold to mid-range.
Support: 161.00, 160.897
Resistance: 161.61, 162.00, 162.50
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is imminent and will materially reset this read
M15 close back above 162.00 reopens the path toward the 162.50 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.00 confirms a lower-low and reopens 160.90
12:02 UTC
Sharp downdraft, now stabilising · RSI 46 · price 161.481
Intervention flush, higher lows off 160.90.
Suspected MoF intervention flushed USD/JPY roughly 200 pips off the 40-year high to a 160.90 session low, snapping the three-day run. Price has since carved higher lows and steadied near 161.48, holding above the 161.00 psych level; RSI(14) recovered to the mid-40s from oversold.
Support: 161.00, 160.90
Resistance: 161.70
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~30min) could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.00 psych reopens the 160.90 session low
Reclaim of 161.70 bounce high needed to unwind the flush
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after sharp drop · RSI 52 · price 161.481
Consolidation above session low after intervention plunge.
USDJPY was slammed ~200 pips off the 162.84 area on suspected MoF intervention and JPY short-covering through the London session, bottoming at 160.90 before steadying near 161.48. Price is now consolidating in a 161.00-161.50 band with RSI back near midline; the 161.95 bounce high caps the recovery.
Support: 161.00, 160.90
Resistance: 161.50, 161.95
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could sharply shift this read
M15 close below 161.00 reopens the 160.90 session low
Reclaim of 161.95 needed to unwind the intervention drop
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing off lows · RSI 50 · price 161.452
Sharp leg down, basing near 161.00.
USD/JPY was slammed off the 162.55 high toward 160.90 on suspected MoF intervention and heavy JPY short-covering, and has since stabilized near 161.00. Price is grinding back to 161.45 into the 161.49 local high, RSI(14) recovering to mid-range after the flush.
Support: 161.02, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.66
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 161.00 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 161.66 needed to extend the post-intervention bounce
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp drop · RSI 46 · price 161.452
Consolidation above session low post-flush.
USDJPY was flushed off the 162.5 area to 160.90 on suspected MoF intervention and JPY short-covering, then steadied into a 161.00–161.50 range. Price now sits at 161.45 with RSI(14) recovering to mid-40s; the 161.49 recent high and 161.68 bounce high cap the rebound.
Support: 161.00, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.68
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read into thin liquidity
M15 close below 160.90 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 161.68 opens the path back toward 162.00
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after sharp drop · RSI 44 · price 161.365
Vertical break lower, basing above session low.
USD/JPY was slammed from the 162.5 area to a 160.90 session low on suspected MoF intervention and heavy JPY short-covering, snapping back off the 40-year high. Price is now consolidating in a tight 161.32-161.49 band, holding above the 161.00 round number, with descending highs capping the recovery. US NFP at 12:30 GMT sits directly ahead into thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 161.00, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.82
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT — key driver, can override this consolidation read
Loss of 161.00 / 160.90 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Close above 161.49 swing high breaks the consolidation and targets the 161.82 recovery high
USD/JPY was punished off the 162.84 multi-decade high toward the 160.90 session low on suspected MoF intervention and heavy JPY short-covering. Pair is now consolidating 161.00–161.49 after the squeeze, RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 42. US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the immediate driver into thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 161.00, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.66
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above 161.49 opens the 161.66 bounce high
Lower highs / lower lows, now consolidating off the low.
USD/JPY sold off from the mid-162s through the European morning, tagging 160.90 before buyers stepped in, and is now consolidating 161.0-161.5 ahead of US NFP. Move came as the dollar drifted off its firm tone with intervention chatter around the 40-year high building; RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 43.
Support: 161.02, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h out) can decisively break this consolidation
Loss of the 160.90 session low confirms fresh downside continuation
Reclaim of the 161.49 swing high would ease the immediate pressure
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating off lows · RSI 44 · price 161.381
Lower highs into 160.90 session low.
USDJPY sold off through the London session from mid-162 to a 160.90 session low, and is now consolidating in a 161.1–161.5 band below EMA20/50. Price is coiling into the US NFP release at 12:30 GMT, the immediate directional trigger.
Support: 161.06, 160.90
Resistance: 161.49
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is imminent and will drive the next leg
Close back above 161.49 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 161.06 reopens the 160.90 session low
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 41 · price 161.345
Lower highs, lower lows off 40-yr high.
London morning saw a sharp leg down from ~162.5 to a 160.90 session low, USD/JPY dropping off 40-year highs amid stealth-intervention fears. A bounce to 161.49 faded and price sits at 161.34, holding below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.49
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1.5h out) is the primary risk to this read
M15 close below 160.90 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.49 would ease the downside pressure
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 161.345
Lower highs, lower lows; basing above 160.90.
USD/JPY sold off hard through the European session from the mid-162s to a 160.90 low on NFP caution and stealth-intervention fears, then bounced to 161.49. Now consolidating around 161.35 below EMA20, RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward 42.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.49
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above 161.49 breaks the descending highs
London session tore through the 162.4-162.6 range, dropping USD/JPY to a 40-year-low-adjacent 160.90 as a softer-USD, stealth-intervention tone weighed. Price has since bounced to 161.49 and is consolidating near 161.43, RSI recovering off oversold ahead of US NFP.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.80
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) is the dominant near-term driver
Close above 161.49 opens the path to 161.80
Failure to hold 160.90 confirms a fresh lower low
MOF ambush-intervention risk in thin holiday liquidity
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 161.427
Lower highs and lower lows, recovering.
London session drove a sharp selloff from mid-162 to a 160.897 low, unwinding the crowded USD/JPY carry into US payrolls risk. Price is now bouncing toward 161.487, RSI(14) recovering from oversold but still sub-50 with both EMAs overhead.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.487, 161.663
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls due — a soft print would pressure USD/JPY back toward 160.90
M15 close above 161.663 breaks the lower-high chain
MOF intervention risk into thin holiday liquidity could spike volatility
Loss of 160.897 confirms continuation of the downtrend
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 43 · price 161.468
Lower highs and lower lows, corrective bounce underway.
USDJPY sold off hard through the European morning, dropping from ~162.55 to a 160.90 session low as JPY caught a bid on stealth-intervention fears and a softer USD after less-hawkish Warsh remarks. Price is now retracing ~35% of that down leg back toward 161.49, RSI(14) lifting off oversold to near 43.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.49, 161.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above 161.66 would break the descending resistance and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 160.90 confirms continuation of the down leg
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 45 · price 161.468
USD/JPY sold off sharply through the London session from ~162.7 to a low of 160.90 on stealth-intervention fears and pre-NFP caution, well off the 40-year high. Price is now grinding a corrective bounce to 161.47 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold; the 161.80 swing high caps the rebound so far.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.80
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h out) is the dominant near-term driver for this read
MOF intervention risk into thin liquidity remains a two-way trip-wire
M15 close above 161.80 challenges the sequence of lower highs
Sharp impulsive leg down, now consolidating above session low.
USDJPY was hit by a sharp London-session selloff, dropping from mid-162 to a session low of 160.90 as MOF stealth-intervention fears squeezed a crowded short-yen positioning. Price is now consolidating in a tight 161.00–161.34 band with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the swing high at 161.34 caps the bounce so far.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.34, 161.66
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~2h) is the near-term swing factor and could materially shift this read
Close below 160.90 session low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.66 bounce high needed to negate the intraday decline
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 44 · price 161.304
Lower highs and lower lows, base forming above 160.90.
Sharp M15 selloff drove USDJPY off the mid-162s to a session low of 160.90 as the yen caught a bid on less-hawkish Warsh remarks and stealth-intervention fears. Price has since recovered to 161.30 but is capped at 161.34; RSI(14) lifting off oversold while price holds below EMA20/50.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.34, 161.80
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
MOF ambush-intervention risk in thin holiday liquidity
M15 close back above 161.80 would break the descending highs
Loss of 160.90 confirms continuation lower
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 39 · price 161.224
Lower highs, lower lows; fresh session low then relief bounce.
USD/JPY sold off sharply through London, breaking the 162.4–162.6 shelf and slicing below 161.00 to a 160.897 low — consistent with the JPY intervention-ambush chatter flagged by the desk. Price has since clawed back to 161.22 but stalls under the 161.335 bounce high; RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 39. NFP at 12:30 GMT is the immediate risk into thin Friday liquidity.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.335, 161.663
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Close below 160.897 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 161.663 needed to question the downtrend
Lower highs and lows, consolidating near session low.
Sharp JPY-relief slide off the 162.84 40-yr high extended through the London session, sweeping down to 160.897 before a bounce. Price is now consolidating 160.90–161.34 with RSI(14) recovering from oversold, ATR near 29 pips keeping ranges wide.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.335
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Close below 160.897 confirms a fresh lower low and continuation
Reclaim of 161.335 needed to relieve the downside pressure
Intervention chatter — thin liquidity spikes possible either way
Lower highs / lower lows, basing near session low.
USD/JPY sold off hard from the mid-162s, breaking down through 162.20 and printing a session low at 160.897 as JPY caught a bid amid MOF ambush-intervention chatter near the 40-year high. Price is now consolidating around 161.20, capped by the 161.34 swing high, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.339, 161.663, 162.203
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT could materially reset this read
Loss of 160.897 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.663 would neutralise the intraday downtrend
USDJPY sold off hard through the London morning, dropping from mid-162 to a session low at 160.90 on a sharp JPY bid amid intervention chatter. Price is now consolidating near 161.20, with the bounce capped at 161.34 and RSI(14) recovering off the lows to ~38.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.34
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2.5h out) can materially reset this read
Reclaim of 161.34 bounce high would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 160.90 session low confirms another lower-low
USD/JPY sold off sharply through the European session, breaking the mid-162 range and printing a 160.897 session low before a shallow bounce to 161.24. RSI(14) near 31 after the slide; a chain of lower highs still caps price. Move fits the softer-USD/JPY-relief read into US payrolls.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.66
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 GMT is the next catalyst and could materially shift this read
Loss of 160.897 confirms the next lower low
Reclaim of 161.66 needed to challenge the down structure
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 31 · price 161.236
Lower highs and lower lows off 162.61.
USD/JPY slid hard through the London session, dropping from the mid-162s to a session low at 160.90 as JPY caught a bid on intervention chatter and a less-hawkish Warsh tone. Price is grinding back to 161.24 after tagging the low, RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 31 but structure stays a clean chain of lower highs.
Support: 160.897
Resistance: 161.66
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~3h out) will decide the next leg — high volatility risk
Failure to hold 160.90 confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 161.66 would break the lower-high sequence
Ambush intervention risk from MOF on thin liquidity
Lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off session low.
USDJPY was hit by a sharp JPY squeeze through London hours, tumbling from 162.20 to a session low of 160.90 as stretched shorts unwound. RSI(14) sits near 34 after a rebound to 161.31; a descending sequence of lower highs still caps rallies below 161.80.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.80, 162.23
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Reclaim of 161.80 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 160.90 session low extends the sell-off; MoF intervention risk into thin Friday liquidity
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 33 · price 161.316
Lower highs and lower lows, bounce off session low.
USDJPY broke down hard through the London session, sliding from the 162.5 consolidation to a 160.90 session low as stretched JPY shorts unwound. RSI(14) is climbing off oversold as the last bar rebounded to 161.31, but structure stays a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.68
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
Close back above 161.68 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 160.90 session low opens the path lower
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 25 · price 161.05
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, fresh session low.
USD/JPY collapsed through 162.20 during NY hours, a single 100+ pip candle marking a sharp JPY squeeze that dragged price to 160.90 — consistent with the stretched-short unwind and intervention risk flagged into US payrolls. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 24 and price sits pinned at the session low; the 161.66 bounce high capped the only recovery attempt.
Support: 160.90
Resistance: 161.66, 162.20
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 161.66 bounce high would ease the oversold selloff
Sustained trade below 160.90 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
USDJPY sold off hard through the NY session, dropping from ~162.7 to 161.05 as stretched JPY shorts covered on softening US data — a clean break of the prior 162.4–162.6 consolidation. RSI(14) is pinned near 27, extended but not yet reversing; each bounce has stalled below 161.66.
Support: 160.90, 161.00
Resistance: 161.66
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls in ~3-4h is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
Failure to hold 160.90 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.66 would ease the downside pressure
USD/JPY broke sharply lower through the London session, sliding from mid-162 to a 161.06 session low in a fast JPY squeeze consistent with building intervention risk. Bounce attempts stalled at 161.82; RSI(14) near 31 as price grinds along the lows.
Support: 161.06, 161.00
Resistance: 161.49, 161.82
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 161.49 would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 161.06 confirms continuation lower toward 161.00
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 161.242
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDJPY sold off hard through the NY session, cracking 162.20 and extending to a 161.06 low as stretched JPY shorts covered ahead of US payrolls. Price sits pinned near the lows, RSI(14) sub-30 and price well below EMA20/50.
Support: 161.06, 161.00
Resistance: 161.49
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
Reclaim of 161.49 would ease the immediate downside pressure
Failure to hold 161.06 confirms continuation to lower lows
MoF intervention risk elevated into thin Friday liquidity
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 28 · price 161.237
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
NY session drove a sharp selloff in USDJPY, breaking from the 162.50 shelf down to a 161.13 session low as crowded yen shorts unwound. Structure is a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows, RSI(14) near 27 and stretched but not yet extreme; last bar sits at 161.24 just off the low.
Support: 161.16, 161.13
Resistance: 161.66
What it said to watch
Break of 161.13 confirms continuation to fresh session lows
Reclaim of 161.66 would break the lower-high sequence
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read given crowded yen shorts
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 161.237
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh session low.
USDJPY sold off hard through the London session, shedding ~150 pips from 162.55 to a spike low at 161.127 — a sharp move against the crowded yen-short backdrop, with verbal intervention warnings in the mix. RSI(14) sits oversold near 27; the bounce to 161.95 was rejected and price is pressing session lows again ahead of US NFP.
Support: 161.127
Resistance: 161.66, 161.947
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst and can materially shift this read
Loss of 161.13 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.66 would neutralise the intraday breakdown
08:15 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 31 · price 161.433
Lower highs, lower lows since London open.
USDJPY broke down hard through the London open, spiking to 161.127 before a shallow bounce stalled near 161.80; price now sits at 161.433, well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) around 31. The move ran counter to the yen-weakness grind and clipped stops below the 162.10 range floor ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 161.371, 161.127
Resistance: 161.798, 162.125
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4.3h) is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
Close below 161.127 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.80 would neutralise the London break lower
USDJPY broke out of the 162.50 range during London and dropped hard, sweeping to 161.127 before a partial recovery to 161.43. RSI(14) near 31 after the impulsive leg; price sits well below EMA20/50 with sellers capping every bounce under 161.68.
Support: 161.127, 161.371
Resistance: 161.68
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
Reclaim of 161.68 would break the lower-high chain
Lower highs, lower lows; breakdown from 162.20 range.
USDJPY sold off hard through the London session, breaking below 162.00 and spiking to 161.13 before a shallow recovery to 161.43 — the short-covering snap flagged after the 40-year highs near 162.84. Price is pinned under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 31; the 161.80 bounce high now caps.
Support: 161.13, 161.37
Resistance: 161.80, 162.00
What it said to watch
US NFP + AHE at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) is the dominant catalyst and could sharply shift this read
Reclaim of 162.00 would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of 161.13 confirms a fresh lower-low
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, steep leg lower · RSI 33 · price 161.433
Lower highs, lower lows; broke below 162.00.
London session sold USDJPY off hard, slicing through 162.00 and spiking to 161.127 before stabilising near 161.43 — a sharp yen bid into crowded short positioning. RSI(14) around 33, not yet extreme; rebounds have stalled below 161.68.
Support: 161.371, 161.127
Resistance: 161.68, 162.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) is the dominant catalyst and could reprice this leg violently
Break below 161.127 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 161.68 would neutralise the recent rejection
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 34 · price 161.571
Impulsive drop then basing above session low.
USDJPY sold off hard through the London morning, spiking down to 161.127 before snapping back to base around 161.55 — a violent unwind from the 162.80 40-year-high area consistent with crowded yen shorts covering. RSI(14) at 34 after the drop; price now capped by 161.73 with the 161.127 sweep low as the reference floor.
Support: 161.127
Resistance: 161.731, 161.947
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4.8h) is the dominant catalyst and can override this structure
M15 close below 161.127 confirms continuation of the leg lower
Reclaim of 161.95 needed to negate the breakdown
07:31 UTC
Sharp downtrend off the highs · RSI 29 · price 161.704
Range broke down, lower lows, spike-low recovery.
USD/JPY collapsed from the ~162.5 range, spiking down to 161.13 before recovering to 161.70 — a violent drop off the 40-year-high area consistent with the JPY squeeze/intervention risk flagged in the yen story. The prior 162.5 range broke hard, RSI(14) is oversold near 29 and ATR is elevated at ~17 pips; price is now basing around 161.65-161.70 under a reclaimed 161.95.
Support: 161.603, 161.127
Resistance: 161.947, 162.125
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially reshape this read
Reclaim of 162.13 prior support would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 161.60 recent low opens a retest of the 161.13 spike low
USD/JPY reversed hard from the 162.5 range top, tearing through 162.20 into a spike low at 161.13 during the London session — a violent JPY short-covering move after crowded shorts probed the 40-yr highs. RSI(14) deeply oversold near 24 following the vertical drop; price stabilising around 161.65.
Support: 161.60, 161.13
Resistance: 162.20, 162.52
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 162.20 would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 161.60 opens a 161.13 spike-low retest
Downside break of the 162.40-162.60 range, deep wick recovery.
USDJPY sold off hard into the NY session, breaking the 162.40-162.60 range and wicking to 161.127 before snapping back to 161.90 — consistent with the squeeze risk flagged around the 40-year highs. RSI(14) cooled sharply into the low 30s and price now sits below both EMAs after the deep spike-and-recover candle.
Support: 161.127, 161.82
Resistance: 162.20
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim 162.20 keeps the breakdown structure intact
A close back below 161.82 reopens the 161.127 spike low
USD/JPY ground lower through the Asia-London transition, breaking the 162.50 base and printing a fresh session low at 162.125 before stalling at 162.19. RSI(14) near 33 with the pullback happening despite the pair sitting just under this week's 40-year high — intervention chatter and pre-NFP positioning in play.
Support: 162.125, 162.00
Resistance: 162.33, 162.52
What it said to watch
M15 close below 162.125 opens the path to 162.00
Reclaim of 162.33 negates the lower-high sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 29 · price 162.223
Lower highs and lower lows off 162.76.
USD/JPY leaked off the 162.76 high through a chain of lower highs, breaking the 162.50 prior range and printing a fresh session low at 162.125 before closing 162.22. RSI(14) near 29 as the down leg extends; this is a pullback within a broader run at 40-yr highs, not a base.
Support: 162.125, 162.00
Resistance: 162.334, 162.52
What it said to watch
A close back above 162.334 swing high would ease the lower-low sequence
Loss of 162.125 session low opens 162.00 psych
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, breakdown from mid-range.
USDJPY slid through the Asian range into early London, printing a fresh session low at 162.125 before a shallow bounce to 162.25; the chain of lower highs is intact and RSI(14) sits sub-35. The pullback fits the retreat off the 40-yr high as verbal intervention caps the topside, ATR running near 6 pips.
Support: 162.125, 162.00
Resistance: 162.334
What it said to watch
Loss of 162.125 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 162.00 psych level
Reclaim of 162.334 needed to break the lower-high chain
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDJPY sold off through NY from 162.76 to 162.29, recovered to 162.60 overnight, then rolled over into the London open to break the prior low and print a fresh session low near 162.285. RSI(14) is soft in the low-30s and price sits below both EMAs; the overnight recovery high at 162.60 capped the bounce.
Support: 162.29
Resistance: 162.45, 162.60, 162.76
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 162.45 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention risk flagged into thin Friday liquidity — a sharp squeeze off session lows would invalidate the downtrend read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Asia · RSI 37 · price 162.386
Lower-high, lower-low chain since 162.61.
Asia session grinding lower off 162.61, printing a lower-high/lower-low chain with price now pressing recent lows near 162.36, RSI(14) sub-40. USD/JPY sits just above the 40-year high zone; NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk.
Support: 162.361, 162.293
Resistance: 162.523, 162.607
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.52 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 162.36 opens the 162.29 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Drifting off range top, making lower highs into Asia.
USDJPY has bled from the 162.60 range top down to 162.40 through the Asia session, printing a chain of lower highs with RSI(14) near 37. Price sits just above the 162.36 session low; a break exposes the 162.29 swing low from yesterday's flush off the 162.76 high.
Support: 162.36, 162.29
Resistance: 162.52, 162.60, 162.72
What it said to watch
M15 close below 162.36 confirms continuation toward 162.29
Reclaim of 162.52 needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk elevated into thin Friday US-holiday liquidity
Series of lower highs and lower lows after NY sell-off.
USD/JPY is grinding lower through the Asia session after the NY sell-off from 162.76 to 162.29, with price rolling over from a 162.61 bounce and RSI(14) near 36. Lower highs remain intact, holding just above the 162.36 recent low.
Support: 162.361, 162.293
Resistance: 162.52, 162.607
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.52 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 162.36 opens the 162.29 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session rolled over from 162.61 back toward the session low at 162.36, RSI(14) mid-40s with ATR compressed to ~8 pips in thin liquidity. Recovery off the 162.29 swing low has stalled under 162.52; sits mid-range ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 162.36, 162.29
Resistance: 162.52, 162.61
What it said to watch
US NFP 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk and will reset this read
M15 close below 162.29 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 162.52 negates the fade toward session lows
Intervention risk elevated into thin Friday liquidity given 40-yr high backdrop
USD/JPY faded from the 162.60 cap through Asia hours after verbal-intervention chatter capped Wednesday's push near the 40-yr high. Price now leaning on the 162.36 swing low, RSI(14) mid-30s and back below both EMAs; the 162.29 session low is the next reference below.
Support: 162.36, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below 162.36 opens the 162.29 session low
Reclaim of 162.60 cap needed to restore the recovery toward the prior high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend developing off intraday range · RSI 39 · price 162.423
Broke below overnight consolidation, lower highs.
USDJPY drifted lower through the Asia session, breaking below the overnight 162.50–162.60 consolidation and now testing 162.36, with RSI(14) around 39. Price sits near the 61.8% retrace of the earlier recovery off 162.29; supply capped attempts back toward 162.60.
Support: 162.361, 162.293
Resistance: 162.52, 162.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 162.52 negates the downside break and puts 162.60 back in play
Loss of 162.36 exposes the 162.29 swing low
US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; JPY intervention risk remains a two-way catalyst
USD/JPY sold off during NY hours from 162.72 to a 162.29 low, then chopped in a 162.50–162.60 range through Asia. Last three bars broke below to 162.36, RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s with price sitting on the deeper fib of the recovery leg.
Support: 162.36, 162.29
Resistance: 162.52, 162.60, 162.72
What it said to watch
M15 close below 162.36 opens the 162.29 swing low
Reclaim of 162.52 puts the 162.60 range top back in play
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention risk elevated near 40-yr highs
Faded from range top, pressing into recovery lows.
Asian session drifted lower after supply capped the 162.60 range top, pulling USD/JPY back to 162.43 near the 61.8% retrace of the recovery off 162.293. RSI(14) mid-30s but not yet oversold, ATR thin at ~5 pips in holiday liquidity. Pair still sits just under this week's 40-yr highs.
Support: 162.36, 162.293
Resistance: 162.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below 162.293 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 162.60 negates the pullback and reopens session high
US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Intervention risk in thin liquidity remains a squeeze catalyst
03:46 UTC
Range after selloff, drifting lower · RSI 46 · price 162.521
Consolidation inside 162.48–162.60.
USDJPY sold off mid-window to 162.29 before recovering into the Asian session, and has since coiled in a tight 162.48–162.60 range with fading volatility. Rejection capped attempts at 162.60; price now pins near 162.52 with RSI mid-range and no momentum. NFP at 12:30 UTC and standing intervention risk near 40-year highs are the dominant catalysts.
Support: 162.48, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60, 162.72
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 opens the path back toward 162.72
Failure to hold 162.48 exposes the 162.29 swing low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Recovered off session low, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 162.523
Tight range near 162.52 after sharp sell-off and recovery.
USD/JPY sold off from 162.76 to a session low at 162.29 during NY hours, then recovered to a recovery high near 162.60 before settling into a tight consolidation around 162.52 on thin Asia liquidity. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR has compressed to roughly 5 pips.
Support: 162.48, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60, 162.76
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst and could reset this range read
M15 close above 162.60 recovery high reopens the path toward the 162.76 prior high
Break below 162.48 recent low exposes the 162.29 swing low
JPY intervention risk remains a two-way tail during thin liquidity
Sharp flush during London hours swept to 162.29 before buyers stepped in, grinding price back up in a rounded recovery to the 162.50-162.60 area. Now coiling in a tight range through thin Asian/holiday liquidity, RSI(14) neutral near 48; JPY pinned near 40-yr lows on the wide yield gap.
Support: 162.50, 162.36, 162.293
Resistance: 162.61, 162.72, 162.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.61 reopens the path toward 162.72 and the 162.84 high
Failure to hold 162.50 exposes the 162.36 swing low
Intervention risk elevated in thin US-holiday liquidity — a sharp move off 162.8 area would break this read
03:01 UTC
Range after sharp NY drop · RSI 44 · price 162.522
Consolidation, holding above session low.
USDJPY dropped hard during NY hours to 162.293 before recovering into a tight 162.48–162.60 range, driven by the US-Japan yield gap and firm dollar into NFP. Price now drifts near range mid in thin Asia-session liquidity (last bar volume near zero), RSI(14) mid-40s and flat.
Support: 162.48, 162.293
Resistance: 162.60, 162.72
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 range high reopens the path toward 162.72
Break below 162.48 range low exposes 162.293 session low
US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF intervention risk into thin Friday US-holiday liquidity
02:46 UTC
Down-leg stalled, drifting lower in range · RSI 44 · price 162.508
Range-bound after NY sell-off, below EMAs.
USDJPY sold off from the 40-yr high near 162.84 during NY hours and has since gone flat, ranging 162.48-162.60 through thin Asia liquidity. Price is grinding the lower half of the range, RSI mid-40s, holding below EMA20/50; verbal MoF intervention capped the earlier spike but did not reverse it.
Support: 162.479, 162.293
Resistance: 162.596, 162.70
What it said to watch
Close below 162.48 session low opens the 162.29 swing low
Reclaim of 162.60 range top needed to challenge 162.70 prior high
Ranging above 162.48, capped near 162.60 after NY sell-off.
Thin Asia session drifting lower after the sharp NY drop from 162.76 into 162.29; price now ranging 162.48–162.60 with lower highs since the 162.61 recovery peak. RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR compressed to ~6 pips on holiday-thin volume.
Support: 162.48, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60, 162.76
What it said to watch
close below 162.48 opens the 162.29 swing low
reclaim of 162.60 needed to challenge prior high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way
02:16 UTC
Pullback then range · RSI 46 · price 162.522
Consolidating after NY selloff.
NY session sold USDJPY from 162.76 down to 162.29 on the yield-driven, intervention-wary tape; since then price has consolidated in a tight 162.48-162.60 band into thin Asia hours. RSI(14) neutral near 46, price sitting just under EMA20 with the range top repeatedly capping at 162.60.
Support: 162.479, 162.293
Resistance: 162.60, 162.762, 162.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 opens the path back to 162.72
Loss of 162.48 exposes the 162.29 swing low
Fresh 40yr high at 162.84 keeps MoF intervention risk live in thin liquidity
US NFP 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Consolidating after selloff · RSI 47 · price 162.515
Range-bound, holding above swing low.
USD/JPY grinding in a 162.48-162.60 range through thin Asia-session liquidity after a sharp drop to 162.293 in the prior session; pair holds near 40-yr highs. RSI(14) neutral near 46, price pinned just below EMA20 with no intraday setup in play.
Support: 162.479, 162.293
Resistance: 162.596, 162.65
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 reopens the path toward the 162.65 prior high
Break below 162.479 exposes the 162.293 swing low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thin US-holiday liquidity keeps MoF intervention risk live near 40-yr highs
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 162.536
Range after sharp sell-off.
USDJPY sold off sharply to 162.29 during NY hours, then recovered and has been consolidating in a 162.48–162.60 range through the Asia session. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46 with price back below EMA20 after the bounce stalled; the 40-yr high at 162.84 remains the ceiling overhead.
Support: 162.48, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60, 162.84
What it said to watch
Break below 162.48 swing low reopens the 162.29 session low
Close above 162.60 recent high needed to challenge the 162.84 40yr high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Recovery off session low, now consolidating · RSI 52 · price 162.57
Tight Asia range after NY-hours selloff.
USDJPY sold off to 162.29 during NY hours then recovered, and is now consolidating in a tight 162.48–162.61 band through thin Asia liquidity. Price sits near the 50% retracement of that drop with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 162.48, 162.293
Resistance: 162.61, 162.84
What it said to watch
Close above 162.61 opens the path back toward the 162.84 40yr high
Loss of 162.48 session low reopens the 162.29 swing low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) plus MoF intervention risk near 162.84 could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Pullback off 40-yr high, now flat · RSI 51 · price 162.564
Consolidating after NY sell-off.
NY session sold off sharply from the 162.84 40-yr high area down to the 162.29 ny low as surging US yields drove the move. Asia has since consolidated the 162.48–162.61 range in thin liquidity with RSI(14) neutral near 50 — no setup in play.
Support: 162.479, 162.293
Resistance: 162.614, 162.762
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.614 range top reopens the path toward 162.762
Loss of 162.479 swing low exposes the 162.293 ny low again
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) and MoF intervention risk could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Pullback off highs, stabilising · RSI 52 · price 162.559
Recovered half of the intraday selloff, now ranging.
USD/JPY was rejected at the 162.84 40yr high and sold off sharply to a 162.29 session low, then clawed back roughly half the move to 162.55 through the evening. Now ranging thin in Asia between the 162.48 swing low and the 162.60 recent high, sitting right on the 50% retracement of the drop.
Support: 162.48, 162.29
Resistance: 162.60, 162.72, 162.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 recent high reopens the path toward 162.72 prior swing
Loss of 162.48 swing low exposes the 162.29 session low again
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) is the primary risk to this range read
MoF intervention risk near the 162.84 40yr high remains asymmetric
00:46 UTC
Recovering after NY flush, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 162.577
V-shaped recovery, now consolidating in thin liquidity.
NY session flushed ~43 pips from 162.76 to a 162.29 session low on the US yield spike, then price ground back to 162.58 through Asia hours in thin holiday liquidity. RSI(14) sits neutral near 54 and the recovery is stalling just under the 162.607 range top.
Support: 162.479, 162.293
Resistance: 162.607, 162.762
What it said to watch
Close above 162.607 opens the path toward 162.762 and the 162.84 high
Failure to hold 162.479 reopens the 162.293 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) can materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Recovering off the dip, momentum mild · RSI 57 · price 162.577
Higher lows since the drop, grinding back to session high.
USD/JPY sold off from 162.72 to a 162.29 swing low on the US-yield/JOLTS move, then clawed back through the Asia session in thin holiday liquidity. Price is grinding a chain of higher lows toward the 162.60 session high, RSI(14) mid-range near 57.
Support: 162.48, 162.293
Resistance: 162.60, 162.72
What it said to watch
M15 close above 162.60 opens the path back toward 162.72
Loss of 162.48 reopens the 162.29 swing low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF intervention risk elevated in thin holiday liquidity
00:01 UTC
Recovering after sharp sell-off, now flat · RSI 54 · price 162.557
V-recovery stalling into thin liquidity.
USDJPY was hit by a sharp NY-session sell-off to a session low of 162.293 before grinding back to ~162.55 through the Asia session. Recovery has flattened into thin pre-holiday liquidity, holding above 162.50 with RSI(14) neutral near 54; the 162.293 drop has retraced roughly halfway.
Support: 162.50, 162.293
Resistance: 162.61, 162.73
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 162.61 session high opens the path to the 162.73 prior high
Failure to hold 162.50 reopens the 162.293 session low