USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 2 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Sideways, recovering inside range · RSI 61 · price 157.894
Higher lows from 156.08 against lower highs from 158.35, a contracting range.
After the break from the 158.60 prior high to 156.08, USDJPY has carved higher lows (156.31, 156.65, 156.96) while highs have stepped down from the 158.35 swing high to the 158.00 range top. The latest swing low sits almost exactly on the 61.8% retracement of the 156.08–158.35 rally, and price has since recovered through the 157.60 pivot lows to sit above both flat, entwined EMAs. ATR(14) near 40 pips is compressed versus the 60–90 pip bars of the late-October selloff. That fits the digest's 157.00–158.00 stalemate, where intervention talk caps the topside and BoJ timing doubt limits yen gains.
Support: 157.60, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.00 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.35 swing high and 158.60 prior high in view
Failure to hold the 157.60 pivot lows reopens the 156.96 swing low and the 61.8% fib
A break of the higher-low trendline from 156.08 would end the recovery structure
US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed and Tuesday's JOLTS could materially shift this read
Japan wages (Thu) and Ueda's speech (Fri) are the JPY-side risks to the range edges
18:02 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 59 · price 157.869
Lower highs from 158.60, higher low at 156.96.
USD/JPY has narrowed into a contracting range since the late-October drop to the 156.08 window low. Highs are stepping lower from the 158.60 range top to the 158.35 prior high, while Friday's 156.96 low formed a higher low right at the 61.8% fib of the 156.08–158.35 rally. Price has recovered since the BoJ hold gave no December guidance and is now testing the 158 cap, holding above flattening EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) near 42 pips well below the breakdown-week expansion.
Support: 157.60, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.60 range top, where Japan intervention rhetoric has capped
Repeated rejection at the 158 cap and a loss of the 157.60 pullback low would turn focus back to the 156.96 friday low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 61.8% fib at 156.96 undoes the higher-low read and reopens the 156.08 window low
US midterm results (Tue overnight) could materially shift this read
Japan wages (Thu 23:30 UTC) and Ueda (Fri 16:00 UTC) are the next tests for December-hike pricing
Lower high at 158.35 and higher low at 156.96 inside the 156.08–158.60 range.
USDJPY has spent three weeks in a range between the 156.08 range low and the 158.60 range top. A lower high at 158.35 and a higher low at 156.96, which held near the 61.8% retracement of the 156.08–158.35 leg, are compressing price into a narrowing structure, and ATR(14) has contracted to about 39 pips from the expansion seen during the mid-October selloff. Price has reclaimed both EMAs but is stalling at the 158.00 round number, with Tokyo intervention talk capping the topside and roughly 75% December Fed hike pricing supporting dips.
Support: 157.60, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the converging structure and exposes the 158.60 range top, where intervention rhetoric has tended to intensify
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing low puts the 156.96 higher low and the rising support line back in focus
A break below the 156.08 range low would end the range read and confirm a downside exit
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read, with Ueda's Friday speech a further JPY risk
Since the 156.08 swing low the pair has printed a lower high at 158.35 under the 158.60 window high and a higher low near the 157.00 range floor. That leaves a contracting, triangle-like range, and Friday's dip held almost exactly at the 61.8% fib of the 156.08–158.35 leg. The bounce has stalled below the 158.00 round number as the USD loses its oil and safe-haven premium, while the BoJ's hawkish hold failed to lift the yen. ATR near 39 pips and price sitting on flat EMAs point to compression, with neither edge yet broken.
Support: 157.00, 156.08
Resistance: 158.00, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.60 window high
Failure to hold the 157.00 range floor and 156.96 higher low reopens the 156.08 swing low
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Tuesday's US midterms could push price to either range edge
Japanese intervention rhetoric above the 158.00 round number, and Ueda on Friday, could shift the read
06:02 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 56 · price 157.895
Lower highs and higher lows inside 156.08-158.60, triangle-like.
USDJPY is coiling inside a triangle-like structure. Price set a lower high at 158.35 below the 158.60 window high, and a higher low at 156.96 above the 156.08 swing low. The rebound from the post-BoJ higher low came as the yen gave back gains after Ueda stayed vague on December timing, and price has now recovered beyond the 61.8% retrace of the 158.35-156.96 swing. ATR(14) near 40 pips is well below the 70-90 pip bars of the late-October selloff, a compression that typically precedes a range break.
Support: 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the triangle's upper boundary and exposes the 158.60 window high
Failure to hold the 156.96 higher low would undo the contraction and reopen the 156.08 swing low
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon 15:00 UTC) and the US midterms (Tue) could materially shift this read
Ueda speech Fri 16:00 UTC and any escalation in MoF intervention language are key event risk for the range edges
02:02 UTC
Sideways, contracting within 156-158.6 range · RSI 49 · price 157.683
Lower highs from 158.60 and higher lows from 156.08, converging.
Three weeks of two-way trade inside a 156.08 range low to 158.60 range high. Lower highs at 158.60 and 158.35 and higher lows at 156.08 and 156.96 are squeezing price into a converging structure, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 42 pips from 60-90 pips during the early-window sell-off. Price dipped to the 157.12 post-BoJ low after the hawkish hold, held the 61.8% retracement of the 156.08-158.35 swing near 156.96, and is now pressing the EMA50 around 157.70 as the post-FOMC USD pullback stalls.
Support: 157.12, 156.96, 156.08
Resistance: 157.70, 158.35, 158.60
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.35 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.60 range high
Failure to hold the 156.96 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 156.08 range low
Acceptance above the EMA50 near 157.70 would shift the read from a heavy range toward a test of the upper boundary
A break back below the 157.12 post-BoJ low would show the EMA50 retest failing
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) could break the compression through the yield channel
Ueda speech Fri Nov 6 on December-hike signalling is the main JPY-side risk to the range