22:02 UTC
Sideways after September recovery, mild upward drift · RSI 55 · price 158.702
Multi-week range 156.08–159.03, highs flattening.
The early-September slide from the 160.39 sept high bottomed at the 152.89 swing low. The rebound stalled at 159.03 in late September, and the pair has since rotated for six weeks between the 156.08 range floor and the range top, with daily highs flattening near 158.75–159.00. Demand returned at the 156.96 oct 30 low after the hawkish BoJ hold failed to lift the yen. Tuesday's close at 158.70, helped by the JOLTS beat, sits just above the 158.60 area where MoF intervention talk has capped gains, with price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI near 55.
Support: 156.96, 156.08, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top breaks the six-week range and opens the 160.39 sept high
- A fall back below the 156.96 oct 30 low returns price to the lower half of the range
- Loss of the 156.08 range floor would mark a lower low and shift attention to the 38.2% retracement near 156.68 and the 152.89 swing low
- US midterm results and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read
- Ueda speech Fri and Japanese wage data Thu, plus MoF rhetoric above 158.60, are intervention-sensitive risks