22:03 UTC
Sideways range after September V-recovery, EMAs flattening · RSI 45 · price 157.428
Six-week range 156.08–159.03, slightly lower highs.
After the early-September drop from 160.39 to the 152.89 sept low, the pair recovered to a 159.03 sept high on Sept 23 and has ranged between the 156.08 range low and 159.03 for six weeks, with each test of the top printing a slightly lower high. This week's push to a 158.77 week high was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 zone where Tokyo's intervention warnings concentrate, and the latest close at 157.43 sits back below flat EMAs with RSI near 45. The yen has not tracked the broad post-midterm USD selling, so carry demand has held dips above the 157.00 psych level while official rhetoric caps the upside.
Support: 157.00, 156.08, 152.89
Resistance: 158.77, 159.03
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 159.03 sept high breaks the range and exposes the 160.39 September top
- Daily close below the 157.00 psych level returns focus to the 156.08 range low
- Close below the 156.08 range low exposes the 50% fib near 155.96 and the 152.89 sept low beyond it
- Ueda's IMF speech Fri 16:00 UTC and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- Escalating intervention rhetoric near the 158.77 week high reinforces the lower-highs line