USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovered from Asia low, now flat below session high · RSI 44 · price 158.398
Lower highs from 158.67, compressing above 158.34.
The post-midterm Asia low at 157.40 was retraced through London, but the NY push stalled at the 158.67 session high, inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention cap. That rejection followed the soft ISM services print, and the pair has since carved lower highs at the 158.56 late NY high. Price is compressing in a 5-pip ATR range just above the 158.34 rollover low, with RSI(14) at 44 and closes just under both EMAs, sitting near the 23% level of the rally fib.
Support: 158.337, 158.168
Resistance: 158.559, 158.67
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.34 rollover low exposes the 158.17 NY low and extends the lower-highs sequence
A close above the 158.56 late NY high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.67 session high and the intervention cap back in play
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could break the current compression in either direction
Any MoF rate-check headlines near 158.60 would likely bring sharp two-way spikes rather than a clean break
Lower high under 158.67 day high, compressing 158.34–158.50.
The post-midterm Asia slide to 157.40 fully retraced into a 158.67 day high in NY, where supply capped price inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. The late-NY lower high at 158.56 has left price coiling just above the 158.34 rollover low, with both EMAs flat overhead and ATR down to about 5 pips.
Support: 158.34, 158.17
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could break the compression early in the Asia session
Failure to hold the 158.34 rollover low exposes the 158.17 NY low, near the 38.2% recovery fib
A close above the 158.56 lower high reopens the 158.67 day high, where intervention-cap rejection risk is elevated
Japan Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the yen read
23:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower after NY · RSI 38 · price 158.371
158.17–158.67 range since London; lower high at 158.56.
The post-midterm drop to 157.40 in Asia was fully retraced. The NY high at 158.67 was rejected under the 158.60 intervention cap, and the NY low at 158.17 held at the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib. Since the 158.56 swing high, price has drifted toward the early asia low at 158.34 on thin ranges, with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 158.34, 158.17
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close below the 158.34 asia low exposes the 158.17 ny low and the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib
A close above the 158.56 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline toward the 158.67 ny high
A push toward the 158.60–158.67 ny high zone raises MoF intervention-headline risk
23:01 UTC
Sideways after full recovery of Asia dip, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 158.351
158.17–158.67 range since London; lower high at 158.56.
The post-midterm Asia drop to 157.40 was fully reclaimed by London, and price has held a 158.17–158.67 range since. A late-NY bounce from the 158.17 NY low stalled at the 158.56 swing high, a lower high under the 158.67 NY high. Price is now back below EMA20/50 in thin rollover trade, near the 50% retrace of that bounce, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC, early in the Asia session, could break the thin range
Loss of the 158.17 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.56 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and retests the 158.67 NY high, inside the 158.60 intervention-risk zone
22:46 UTC
Recovered from Asia low, now flat below NY high · RSI 46 · price 158.389
Lower high at 158.56 after 158.67 rejection; tight 158.34–158.50 range.
Midterm-driven USD selling hit 157.40 in Asia before a full recovery as JPY lagged. The NY session high at 158.67 was rejected just above the 158.60 intervention-risk zone, and the pullback held the 158.17 swing low near the 38.2% retrace. Price is now compressing between the 158.34 rollover low and the 158.50 range top with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 158.34, 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.50, 158.67, 158.74
What it said to watch
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
A close above the 158.50 range top tests the lower-high line from the 158.67 session high
Failure at the 158.34 rollover low exposes the 158.17 swing low, then the 158.00 round number
Clearing the 158.74 prior high would take price through the intervention-risk area
22:16 UTC
Sideways after full recovery, highs capped · RSI 47 · price 158.393
Range 158.17–158.67, lower high at 158.56.
USD/JPY fully reversed the Asia-session midterm drop to 157.40, but supply has capped it in the 158.50–158.67 intervention zone: the NY high at 158.67 was followed by a lower high at 158.56. The NY low at 158.17 held at the 38.2% retrace. Post-rollover drift at 158.39 sits just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI near 47 and ATR down to about 6 pips.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.67 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and pushes price deeper into the intervention zone
Loss of the 158.17 NY low and the 38.2% retrace exposes the 158.00 round number
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC in thin early Asia trade could jolt the range
22:02 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 158.417
158.17–158.67 NY range, lower high at 158.56, late-NY drift near mid-range.
The Asia-session slide to 157.40 on post-midterm USD selling fully reversed. A NY spike to the 158.67 session high met rejection inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. Price is now drifting at 158.42, about the 50% fib of the 158.67–158.17 NY leg, beneath a lower high at 158.56 on thin late-NY ranges (ATR ~6 pips).
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.56 lower high puts the 158.67 session high and intervention zone back in play
Failure to hold the 158.17 ny low exposes the 158.00 round number
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could break the quiet late-NY range
Escalating Tokyo intervention rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 could trigger a sharp intraday reversal
21:46 UTC
Range after Asia V-recovery, highs flattening · RSI 47 · price 158.424
158.17–158.67 range since London; lower high at 158.56 under the NY high.
The midterm-driven USD selloff sent the pair to an Asia low of 157.40, but the yen could not hold the gain and price recovered through London to a 158.59 London high. The NY high at 158.67 was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-risk zone. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 158.56 lower high, and price is now compressing at 158.42–158.50 just above the 158.37 late NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 158.37, 158.21, 158.17
Resistance: 158.56, 158.59, 158.67
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.67 NY high breaks the range top and pushes into the zone where Tokyo intervention risk concentrates
Failure to hold the 158.37 late NY low exposes the 158.21 london low and the 158.17 ny low
A push through the 158.56 lower high and the 158.59 london high unwinds the lower-high read
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC hit thin early-Asia liquidity and could reprice this range
Escalating official yen rhetoric beyond 'high sense of urgency' is a two-way risk near range highs
21:31 UTC
Range after post-midterm recovery, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 158.433
158.17–158.67 range with a lower high at 158.56; compressing late NY.
The rebound from the 157.40 Asia low, set during the midterm-driven USD selloff, met rejection at the 158.67 NY high inside Tokyo's 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. Price then dipped to the 158.17 NY low near the 38.2% fib and printed a lower high at 158.56. It is now compressing at 158.43 above the late-NY base at 158.37, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 158.37, 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.56 lower high puts the 158.67 NY high back in play, where intervention risk concentrates
Failure to hold the late-NY base at 158.37 exposes the 158.17 NY low and the 38.2% fib
A break below 158.17 opens the 158.00 round number
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin Asia open
21:16 UTC
Recovered Asia drop, now ranging below 158.67 · RSI 63 · price 158.461
158.17–158.67 range since London; lower high at 158.56.
USD/JPY retraced the full Asia-session midterm drop to 157.40 as the yen failed to track broad USD weakness. London and NY then stalled in a 158.17–158.67 range just under the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone, with rejection at the 158.67 session high. The late-NY bounce off the 158.17 ny low capped at a 158.56 swing high, a lower high, and price is now coiling above the 158.37 base after NY close.
Support: 158.37, 158.17
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.56 swing high and 158.67 session high breaks the lower-highs line and exits the range into the intervention zone
Loss of the 158.37 base exposes the 158.17 ny low; a break there undercuts the Asia low to session high recovery
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and intervention rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 could materially shift this read in the Asian session
Lower high at 158.56 below 158.67 session high; higher low intact above 158.17.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.40 post-midterm Asia low to a 158.67 session high in early NY, then was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone after the soft ISM Services print. The pullback held the 158.17 NY low at the 38.2% fib, and late NY is now compressing between a 158.37 base and a 158.56 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 158.37, 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.56 lower high reopens the 158.67 session high, where intervention risk concentrates
Break of the 158.37 NY base exposes the 158.17 NY low and the 38.2% fib
Loss of 158.17 breaks the rising support line from the Asia low and puts the 158.00 round number in play
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC or escalating Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
Lower high at 158.56 under 158.67 session high; higher low at 158.17.
USD/JPY fully reversed the Asia-session midterm drop to 157.40. NY hours then capped the recovery at the 158.67 session high, inside Tokyo's flagged 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. The 158.17 swing low held and the late-NY bounce stalled at a 158.56 lower high, leaving price on the 158.37–158.40 shelf with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 158.374, 158.168, 158.00
Resistance: 158.559, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.56 lower high reopens the 158.67 session high and the intervention zone
Loss of the 158.37 shelf exposes the 158.17 swing low, then the 158.00 round number
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in intervention rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the day high · RSI 56 · price 158.498
158.17–158.67 range after the Asia low; lower high at 158.56 so far.
Asia sold off on the US midterm result to a 157.40 session low. London and NY reversed it to a 158.67 day high, and the pullback to the 158.17 NY low held near the 38.2% fib with yen still lagging broad USD weakness. Late NY is retesting the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone from a 158.38 shelf, with a lower high at 158.56 so far and RSI(14) neutral around 56.
Support: 158.38, 158.17
Resistance: 158.56, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.67 day high breaks the lower-high sequence and takes price through the intervention zone
Loss of the 158.38 shelf exposes the 158.17 NY low; a break there also breaches the rising trendline off 157.40
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in Tokyo intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
158.17–158.67 range since London; lower high at 158.56 into late NY.
The midterm-driven Asian flush to 157.40 has been fully retraced, with JPY lagging despite USD weakness. Since London the pair has ranged 158.17–158.67, and the late-NY bounce stalled at 158.56. That is a lower high under the NY high and inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. Price sits near the 61.8% fib of the NY high-to-low leg, holding a micro base at 158.37 after London close.
Support: 158.37, 158.17
Resistance: 158.57, 158.67, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.67 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.75 prior high
Loss of the 158.37 micro base returns focus to the 158.17 NY low and the rising trendline
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in Tokyo intervention rhetoric could trigger sharp moves near the intervention zone
19:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia recovery, lower high in NY · RSI 46 · price 158.409
158.17–158.67 range; lower high at 158.46 under the session high.
USD/JPY fully reversed the midterm-driven Asia slide to 157.40, but NY rejected at the 158.67 session high, inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-risk zone flagged by officials. Late NY is stalling near 158.41, around the 50% retrace of the drop to the 158.17 swing low, with a lower high at 158.46 capping so far.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.59, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 lower high and its trendline brings the 158.59 London high and 158.67 session high back into view, where intervention risk concentrates
Failure to hold the 158.17 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 158.00 round number
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in Tokyo intervention language could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Recovery stalled, sideways late NY · RSI 47 · price 158.394
Range 158.17–158.67 after rejection at session high.
Rebound from the post-midterm 157.40 low stalled at a 158.67 session high after the ADP beat. That was a brief false break of the 158.60 asian high, inside the flagged intervention zone, and price slid to a 158.17 ny low. After London close the pair is ranging under the 158.46 swing high, below the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 47 and price sitting on EMA20, only about 22% back into the recovery fib.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.60, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 swing high and lower-highs line reopens the 158.60 asian high and 158.67 session high
Failure to hold the 158.17 ny low (near the 38.2% recovery fib) exposes the 158.00 round number
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in Tokyo intervention language near 158.60 could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalled, lower low since NY peak · RSI 43 · price 158.386
NY false break above 158.59 rejected at 158.67, lower low at 158.17, bounce retracing.
USD/JPY fully reclaimed the Asia midterm drop to 157.40, but the NY push through the 158.59 London high stalled at the 158.67 NY high, inside the digest's 158.50-158.60 intervention zone, and reversed to a 158.17 NY low beneath the 158.21 London pullback low. The late-NY rebound has stalled at the 158.46 bounce high, roughly a 58% retrace of the NY high-low fib, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 bounce high reopens the 158.67 NY high and voids the lower-high read
Break of the 158.17 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any escalation in Tokyo intervention language near 158.50-158.60 could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
V-recovery from Asia low, stalling below session high · RSI 43 · price 158.387
Post-recovery chop between 158.17 and 158.67, lower high vs prior high.
Post-midterm USD selling set the Asia session low at 157.40 before a full recovery. The NY session high at 158.67 was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 zone where Tokyo's intervention line sits. The pullback held the NY low at 158.17, near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia low–NY high leg. Late NY is chopping around 158.39 under the 158.46 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 bounce high reopens a test of the 158.67 session high
Acceptance above 158.67 invalidates the rejection read and exposes the 158.77 prior high
Failure to hold the NY low at 158.17 breaks the 38.2% fib and opens the 158.00 round number
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and any intervention rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 could materially shift this read
Rejection at 158.67 session high, lower highs into late NY, probing 38.2% retracement.
The post-midterm USD selloff took the pair to the 157.40 asian low before London and NY rebuilt the move to a 158.67 session high, where supply capped price inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone. Late NY has carved lower highs down to 158.46 and set a fresh NY low at 158.17, right at the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally; RSI(14) near 40, price under both EMAs.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.46, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.17 ny low / 38.2% fib exposes the 158.00 round number and 50% retracement
Close back above the 158.46 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.67 session high, with the 158.77 prior high beyond
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight could materially shift this read; official rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 remains a two-way risk
NY high at 158.67 capped below the prior 158.77 high; NY low at 158.17 took out the 158.21 midday pivot.
USD/JPY's recovery from the 157.40 Asian low ran into rejection at the 158.67 NY high, inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-risk zone. The pair has since slid to a 158.17 NY low at the 38.2% retrace of the recovery, with a lower high at 158.46 and price below both EMAs. JPY is still lagging despite the post-midterm USD slide.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.17 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 50% recovery retrace near 158.03
Reclaim of the 158.46 lower high would reopen the 158.67 NY high
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.40 Asia low; NY high at 158.67 rejected, pullback holding 158.33.
USD/JPY has fully recovered the Asia-session midterm drop to 157.40, as JPY lagged the broader USD slide. London and NY have printed higher lows at the 158.21 swing low and the 158.33 NY swing low. The NY push to a 158.67 session high, just through the 158.59 London high, was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-risk zone; price sits at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.33, 158.21
Resistance: 158.59, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.33 NY swing low, then the 158.21 swing low, would break the higher-low sequence off the Asia low
M15 close above the 158.67 session high exposes the 158.77 prior high; the 158.59 London high is the first cap
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and Tokyo intervention rhetoric near 158.50–158.60 could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 157.40 Asia low; lower high capping below 158.67.
The Asia-session slide on the post-midterm USD selloff bottomed at 157.40, and London and NY retraced the whole move. NY then saw a rejection at the 158.67 session high, just above the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone flagged in the digest. Price now chops between the 158.33 swing low and the 158.52 lower high. It sits at the 50% retrace of the NY leg, pinned on EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 158.33, 158.21
Resistance: 158.52, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.33 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 158.21 ny low
M15 close above the 158.52 lower high reopens the 158.67 session high, with the 158.77 prior high from yesterday's NY session above
Official verbal escalation on yen weakness near 158.50–158.60 could reinforce the rejection
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight could shift the read during the Asia session
Higher lows from the 157.40 Asia low; first lower high after the NY rejection.
USDJPY has fully retraced the post-midterm drop to 157.40 in Asia, with higher lows through London and NY. The NY push was rejected at the 158.67 session high, just above the 158.59 London high and inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone flagged by Tokyo commentary. The pullback held the 158.36 pullback low after London close, near the 23.6% rally fib and above the higher-low trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to ~55.
Support: 158.36, 158.21
Resistance: 158.59, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.36 pullback low and the higher-low trendline (~158.34) breaks the HL chain; 158.21 swing low is next
Close above the 158.67 session high, after clearing the 158.59 london high, exposes the 158.77 prior high from before the midterm drop
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any verbal intervention near 158.50–158.60 could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, momentum stalling · RSI 58 · price 158.491
Higher lows intact, NY high rejected near 158.60 zone.
The midterm-driven slide to 157.40 in the Asian session has been fully retraced, with each pullback holding a higher low from the london low (158.01) to the ny low (158.21) and the swing low (158.36). The NY push briefly cleared the london high to a session high of 158.67 but was rejected back inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-rhetoric zone. Price sits mid-pullback during the London-NY transition, well above the recovery fib's 38.2% level near 158.18.
Support: 158.363, 158.208, 158.012
Resistance: 158.592, 158.67, 158.766
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.67 session high reopens the prior high at 158.77
Break below the 158.36 swing low and the 158.21 ny low ends the higher-low chain and the rising lows line
Official verbal escalation or rate-check headlines near 158.50–158.60
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC could shift the read on yen direction
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling · RSI 53 · price 158.437
Higher-low chain from 157.40, sharp rejection at 158.67 session high.
USDJPY has rebuilt in a higher-low chain from the post-midterm Asia-session low at 157.40. The NY push to a 158.67 session high was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-rhetoric zone, dropping price back below the London high at 158.59 and onto EMA20. The 23.6% fib at 158.37 and the rising trendline off the 158.21 swing low are the nearest structure below.
Support: 158.37, 158.21, 158.00
Resistance: 158.59, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.67 session high reopens the prior high at 158.77
A break of the 23.6% fib at 158.37 and the rising trendline puts the 158.21 swing low in play; losing it ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.00 round number
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any Japanese official verbal escalation near 158.60 could shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 62 · price 158.538
Higher lows from 157.40 Asia low; HH at 158.67 met rejection.
The post-midterm USD drop bottomed at 157.40 in the Asia session. Since then the pair has climbed in higher lows through London. The NY low at 158.21 held into the US data and price pushed to a 158.67 session high, which was rejected inside the 158.50–158.60 zone where the digest flags intervention risk, with RSI(14) easing to 62.
Support: 158.48, 158.21
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.77 prior high clears yesterday's range top
Break of the 158.48 minor low puts the rising support near 158.30 in play
Failure to hold the 158.21 NY low breaks the higher-low chain; the 38.2% of the Asia-NY leg sits just below at 158.18
BoJ Minutes at 23:50 UTC and any official verbal escalation near 158.60 could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, full V-recovery of the Asia drop · RSI 69 · price 158.664
Higher lows from 157.40, NY broke above the London high.
The Asia session sell-off to 157.40 on the Democratic midterm sweep has been almost fully retraced, with the midterm drop now about 90% unwound. NY pushed through the 158.59 london high while holding the 158.21 swing low and the rising trendline. Price now sits above the 158.50–158.60 zone flagged for Tokyo intervention rhetoric, about 10 pips below the 158.77 prior high.
Support: 158.592, 158.208
Resistance: 158.766, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.59 london high would turn the NY break into a false break
Prior high at 158.77 is the area to watch for rejection or a break, given verbal intervention risk at the range top
A clear close above 158.77 opens the path to the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.21 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 157.40 Asia low; higher low at 158.21, now pressing the 158.59 London high.
USD/JPY has fully retraced the post-midterm drop to the 157.40 Asia low and is retesting the 158.59 London high in the NY session. That high sits at the 158.60 area where Tokyo intervention rhetoric has capped price. Demand stepped in at the 158.21 swing low after the ADP beat, keeping the higher-low chain on rising support intact; RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 158.48, 158.21, 158.00
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.59 London high exposes the 158.77 prior high, but intervention risk rises above 158.60
Rejection at 158.59 with a break of the 158.48 micro low would leave a double top against the London high
Loss of rising support and the 158.21 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 158.00 round number next
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC or escalation in Tokyo intervention language could materially shift this read
USDJPY has fully reversed the midterm-driven Asia drop to 157.40. The yen failed to benefit from broad USD weakness. Early NY held a 158.21 swing low above the 38.2% fib of the Asia low–London high leg despite soft US PMIs, and price is now retesting the 158.59 London high, near the intervention-sensitive 158.60 range top. RSI(14) sits at 57, while price holds above the ema20 and the rising trendline from the Asia low near 158.40.
Support: 158.42, 158.21, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.59 London high breaks the session range and exposes the 158.77 prior high.
Repeated rejection at 158.59–158.60 alongside louder Tokyo intervention rhetoric would mark a lower high under the range top.
A break below the 158.21 swing low ends the higher-low chain and opens the 158.01 London low, near the 50% fib.
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session.
Higher low at 158.21 after London high 158.59; NY retesting the top.
USDJPY has retraced most of the post-midterm slide to 157.40. The ADP beat produced a higher low at the 158.21 swing low, and the first hours of NY are now retesting the 158.59 session high, just under the 158.60 cap flagged for intervention risk. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 10 pips; the recovery leg holds above its 38.2% retracement.
Support: 158.21, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
A close above the 158.59 session high opens the 158.77 prior high, with Tokyo intervention rhetoric a risk around 158.60
A break below the 158.21 swing low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.01 london base
Higher lows off 157.40, coiling under London high.
USD/JPY has recovered from the 157.40 Asia session low as the post-midterm USD slide pared and ADP beat, carving higher lows at 158.01 and the 158.21 ny low. NY session is coiling between that ny low and the 158.48 ny high, with the London high at 158.59 capping just under the 158.60 area where Tokyo intervention rhetoric has kept a lid.
Support: 158.208, 158.00
Resistance: 158.479, 158.592, 158.766
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.59 london high opens the 158.77 prior high, with intervention risk rising through 158.60
Failure to hold the 158.21 ny low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 158.00 round number
Lower high under london high, higher low at ny low.
The post-midterm drop to 157.40 in the Asia session was fully reversed through London, but the rally met rejection at the 158.59 london high, near the 158.60 intervention-sensitive range top. Early NY dipped to the 158.21 ny low and bounced, though the 158.48 ny high sits under the london high, so price is coiling just above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 60 and the prior high at 158.77 untested.
Support: 158.21, 158.00
Resistance: 158.48, 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 14:45 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) are likely to break the current coil
M15 close above the 158.48 ny high reopens the 158.59 london high, where intervention rhetoric has capped price
Acceptance above 158.59 exposes the 158.77 prior high
Failure to hold the 158.21 ny low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% retrace near 158.14
Breaking the lower-high trendline from the london high ends the compression read
14:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling below range top · RSI 48 · price 158.403
Higher low at 158.21 beneath 158.48 NY high and 158.59 London high.
The midterm-driven Asia sell-off bottomed at the 157.40 asia low. A V-shaped recovery, backed by firm US data and Fed rate-differential support, carried London to 158.59. Supply capped there, at the 158.60 range top where intervention talk sits. NY has held a higher low at 158.21, but the bounce was rejected at the 158.48 ny high, leaving price mid-range into ISM Services.
Support: 158.21, 158.01, 157.40
Resistance: 158.48, 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 158.21 ny low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.14 and the 158.01 london low at the 158.00 handle
M15 close above the 158.48 ny high reopens the 158.59 london high; acceptance above 158.60 raises intervention risk ahead of the 158.77 prior high
A break of the rising trendline from the asia low would undo the higher-low sequence
14:01 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling below 158.60 · RSI 50 · price 158.403
Lower high at 158.48 under 158.59 London high, higher low at 158.21.
The midterm-driven Asia sell-off bottomed at 157.40, and London retraced it to a 158.59 London high, just under the 158.60 intervention-risk cap. The NY session has held a 158.21 pullback low above the 38.2% fib and printed a lower high at the 158.48 NY high, with price compressing mid-range ahead of ISM Services.
Support: 158.21, 158.00
Resistance: 158.48, 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 158.48 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 158.59 London high and 158.60 intervention cap back into focus
Acceptance above 158.60 opens the 158.77 prior high, with intervention-rhetoric risk rising
Failure to hold the 158.21 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.14 and the 158.00 round number
13:46 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 158.33
Higher lows from 157.40 intact, lower high below 158.59.
The Democratic midterm sweep drove an Asia-session drop to 157.40. London fully recovered it to a 158.59 session high, where the rally was rejected just under the 158.60 intervention-risk top. Early NY has pulled back to a 158.21 swing low near the fib 38.2 of the recovery and is holding above rising support, with a 158.39 lower high capping as ADP lands.
Support: 158.21, 158.14, 158.01
Resistance: 158.39, 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.21 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.14 fib 38.2 and the 158.01 london low
Close above the 158.39 lower high reopens the 158.59 session high; the prior high at 158.77 sits beyond the 158.60 intervention-risk zone
ADP now and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Tokyo rhetoric is a two-way spike risk near 158.60
13:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, now pulling back · RSI 44 · price 158.289
V-shaped rebound from 157.40, lower highs below 158.59.
USD/JPY rebounded from the post-midterm Asia low at 157.40 to a 158.59 session high late in London. Rejection there has left a run of lower highs, with price at 158.29 just under the 23.6% rebound fib and RSI(14) near 44. ADP is printing into the NY open, and the yen has kept lagging broad USD weakness.
Support: 158.21, 158.00
Resistance: 158.39, 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.21 pullback low exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 50% rebound fib
A close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the pullback line
Clearing the 158.59 session high, at the 158.60 range cap tied to MoF warnings, exposes the 158.77 prior high
ADP now and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Recovery from the midterm low, stalled under 158.60 · RSI 53 · price 158.367
Higher lows since London open; capped at the London high, pullback holding.
The Asia session midterm sell-off bottomed at 157.40. London has since rebuilt it with higher lows. A poke above the Asian high (158.56) to the 158.59 London high, just shy of the 158.60 intervention-sensitive zone, failed. The pullback held 158.24, a pullback low between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib, with RSI back near neutral as NY opens.
Support: 158.244, 158.012
Resistance: 158.592, 158.766
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC, then ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A close above the 158.59 london high reopens the 158.77 prior high, inside the zone where MoF rhetoric has capped moves
Failure to hold the 158.24 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 158.01 london low
Lower highs off 158.59, London higher-low at 158.32 broken.
The rebound from the 157.40 post-midterm low stalled at the 158.59 session high late in London, inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-sensitive zone. Price has since slipped below the 158.32 higher low, with RSI(14) near 43. It now sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib retracement of the 157.40–158.59 leg, with the 158.21 swing low next below.
Support: 158.21, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
An M15 close below the 158.21 swing low exposes the 158.01 london low, near the 50% fib
Recapture of the 158.59 session high brings the 158.77 prior high into view, where intervention sensitivity rises
12:31 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 49 · price 158.299
V-recovery from 157.40 Asian low; London HH at 158.59 rejected, retracing toward range top.
The Democrats' midterm sweep drove an Asia session flush to 157.40. Price has since retraced the move, and London extended to a 158.59 session high, where supply capped it at the edge of the 158.50–158.60 intervention-sensitive zone. Price is now back below EMA20 near the 23.6% fib (~158.31), heading into a retest of the 158.19 range top from the early-London consolidation.
Support: 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
M15 close below the 158.19 range top opens the 38.2–50% fib zone toward the 158.01 range low
Reclaim of the 158.59 session high exposes the 158.77 prior high, with MoF rhetoric risk in that zone
Higher-low chain from 157.40, now pulling back below London trendline.
The rebound from the 157.40 post-midterm low stalled at a 158.59 session high in London. That is just shy of the 158.60 Asian-session top, the cap the digest ties to Tokyo intervention warnings. Price has since slipped below the London trendline into the 158.40s, with RSI(14) easing to ~64 ahead of ADP.
Support: 158.32, 158.14, 158.00
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.32 swing low opens the fib 38.2 retracement at 158.14, with the 158.00 round number beneath as the digest's gauge of whether the post-election USD selloff is fading
Close above the 158.59 session high exposes yesterday's 158.77 prior high, inside the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has been escalating
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off 157.40, stalling at highs · RSI 59 · price 158.438
HH/HL chain from the election low; higher-low trendline giving way late London.
USD/JPY has recovered most of the election-low drop to 157.40. Higher lows built through Asia, and London broke out of the 158.01–158.19 range. The rally then met rejection at the 158.59 session high, just under yesterday's post-JOLTS 158.60 peak, in the area where Tokyo jawboning has capped spot. The last two London bars slipped below the higher-low trendline and RSI(14) cooled to ~59, leaving the 158.32 higher low (≈23.6% of the election-low rally) as first support.
Support: 158.32, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.32 higher low ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 158.19 range top
Loss of the 158.01 range base (≈50% retrace) puts the 158.00 handle back in question
Close above the 158.59 session high opens the 158.77 prior high, inside the zone where intervention rhetoric has intensified
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 158.60 · RSI 72 · price 158.507
Higher lows since 157.40 Asia low; London extended the rebound, holding below session high.
The rebound from the post-midterm 157.40 Asia low built rising lows through London. The 158.59 session high stalled just under the 158.50–158.60 area where MoF warnings have capped spot. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but not extreme, and the 158.32 swing low is the latest higher low.
Support: 158.32, 158.01
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.59 session high exposes the 158.77 prior high, inside the zone where intervention risk is elevated
Break of the 158.32 swing low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain; range low 158.01 is next
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 157.40; London HH/HL chain on a rising trendline.
The Asia-session midterm flush to 157.40 has been fully retraced on firm US fundamentals. London broke the 158.01–158.19 range top and climbed a rising trendline into the 158.60 spike high, the area where Tokyo jawboning has capped spot, with RSI(14) near 78.
Support: 158.38, 158.19, 158.00
Resistance: 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.60 spike high caps the London advance; an M15 close above it opens the 158.77 prior high
A break of the rising trendline and the 158.38 pullback low would mark the first lower-low since 04:30 UTC, putting the 158.19 range top in focus
Acceptance below the 158.00 round number would bring the recovery fib 50% level (~158.00) and the 38.2% level (~158.14) into play
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, recovery leg extending · RSI 69 · price 158.538
HH/HL chain since London broke the 158.01–158.19 range.
The midterm-driven Asia session selloff bottomed at the 157.40 session low. Mid-London, price has broken the 158.01–158.19 range and stepped up through a 158.32 higher low into 158.55, just under the 158.60 jolts high where Tokyo's intervention warnings have capped spot. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched, and rising support from the 08:00 UTC low is intact.
Support: 158.32, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 jolts high opens the 158.77 prior high, inside the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has intensified
Break of rising support and the 158.32 higher low ends the HH/HL chain; a return below the 158.19 range top negates the breakout, with the 158.01 range low below
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 72 · price 158.465
HH/HL chain since the London range break at 158.19.
USD/JPY has recovered most of the post-midterm slide from the 157.40 Asia session low. London broke the 158.01–158.19 early range and has since printed a higher low at 158.21 and a swing low at 158.32. Price now sits at a 158.49 session high, near the 78.6% retracement of the 158.77–157.40 election drop, with RSI(14) around 72: hot but not extreme. Supply has capped spot in the 158.50–158.60 area amid MoF intervention warnings.
Support: 158.32, 158.21, 158.01
Resistance: 158.49, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 prior swing opens the 158.77 prior high; intervention rhetoric makes that zone two-way
Failure to hold the 158.32 swing low, then the 158.21 higher low, breaks the London HL chain
Loss of the 158.01 london base returns price to the overnight range
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, V-recovery from Asia low extending · RSI 71 · price 158.417
Higher lows after London-morning range break; session high 158.42 being tested.
USD/JPY has fully retraced the Asia-session election selloff to 157.40. It broke above the London-morning 158.01–158.19 range at 09:15 UTC and is pressing the 158.42 session high. Higher lows along the rising trendline keep the intraday chain intact, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 158.32, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.42, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.19 range top would turn the breakout into a false break; the range low at 158.01 and 158.00 psych sit below
Losing the rising trendline and the 158.32 minor low would end the higher-low sequence
158.50–158.60 is the 158.60 cap flagged for MoF intervention rhetoric; watch for rejection there or a break toward the 158.77 prior high
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and lows from 157.40; London range break.
The post-midterm slide bottomed at 157.40 during Asia, and the rebound has now retraced about 72% of the drop from the 158.77 swing high. London held a 158.01–158.19 range for two hours before breaking higher to a 158.42 session high, with the rising trendline from the range low still intact. Price is now approaching the 158.50–158.60 prior high, where Tokyo intervention warnings have capped spot.
Support: 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.42, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.19 range top would turn the London breakout into a false break
A break of the rising trendline (near 158.34) would expose the 158.19 range top
The 158.42 session high and the 158.60 prior high mark the zone where the digest flags intervention rhetoric
Losing the 158.01 range low would put the 157.40 swing low back in focus
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asia low; London broke above the pre-London range.
The election-driven Asia session slide to the 157.40 asia low has been retraced past the 61.8% fib. London broke the 158.01–158.19 range and held a retest of the range top at 158.20, with the rebound trendline intact. Price at 158.40 sits under the 78.6% fib at 158.47, with the 158.60 prior high above in the zone where MoF warnings have capped spot; RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 158.20, 158.01, 157.40
Resistance: 158.47, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.20 range top and the rebound trendline returns price to the 158.01–158.19 range
Loss of the 158.01 range low exposes the 157.40 asia low
Acceptance above the 158.60 prior high opens the 158.77 swing high, where intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since election low; London broke above 158.01–158.19 range.
USD/JPY has recovered most of the election-driven Asia slide from the 158.77 prior high to 157.40. The first hour of London broke the 158.01–158.19 range and cleared the 61.8% fib at 158.24. Price is now pressing the 78.6% fib near 158.47 with RSI(14) around 71, just below the 158.56 swing high and the 158.50–158.60 area where MoF warnings have capped spot.
Support: 158.24, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.47, 158.56, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.19 range top would turn the London breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 78.6% fib or the 158.56 swing high would leave a lower high under the 158.77 prior high
Loss of the 158.01 range low unwinds the recovery's HH/HL chain
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a push toward 158.60 raises intervention-headline risk
V-recovery off 157.40 Asia low; London broke above the 158.01–158.19 range and retested its top.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from the 157.40 Asia low set on the Democratic sweep. Early London broke the 158.01–158.19 range to a 158.36 session high, and the pullback held the range top. Price sits above the 61.8% retrace of the 158.77–157.40 drop, with rising support from the Asia low intact and RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.36, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.19 range top returns price to the overnight range
Failure to hold 158.01 range low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
158.36 session high, then 158.60 prior high in the intervention-sensitive zone; areas to watch for rejection or break
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 157.40 Asian low; London broke above the 158.01–158.19 range.
The Democratic sweep knocked USDJPY from 158.70 to a 157.40 Asian low. Price has since recovered more than 61.8% of that selloff, and early London broke the 158.19 range top after the pair spent the Asia-London transition carving a 158.01–158.19 range on higher lows. RSI(14) near 71; the 158.45 breakdown level from the late-NY drop is the next overhead test.
Support: 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.45, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.19 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of 158.01 range floor breaks the higher-lows trendline
158.45 breakdown level and 158.60 prior high sit in the intervention-sensitive zone; area to watch for rejection or break
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Recovery from Asian low, grinding higher · RSI 57 · price 158.221
Higher lows inside 158.01–158.24 London range, testing top.
The Democratic sweep drove USD/JPY to a 157.40 Asian low before a V-shaped recovery. Early London has held a 158.01–158.24 range on higher lows at 158.01, 158.07 and 158.13. Price is now pressing the London high, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the 158.77–157.40 drop, with RSI(14) a neutral 57.
Support: 158.07, 158.01, 157.40
Resistance: 158.24, 158.44, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 London high and 61.8% retrace opens the 158.44 break level, then the 158.60 prior high in the intervention-sensitive zone
Rejection at 158.24 and a loss of the 158.07 higher low turns the range back toward the 158.01 London low
Failure to hold the 158.01 London low ends the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 157.40 Asian low
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
V-shaped rebound from 157.40, now flat · RSI 54 · price 158.169
Tight London range 158.01–158.19 below 61.8% retrace of the election drop.
The US election-driven slide from the 158.77 prior high bottomed at the 157.40 rebound low in the Asia session. The V-shaped recovery then reclaimed 158.00 on firm US data and safe-haven USD demand. Early London has compressed inside a 158.01–158.19 range just under the 61.8% fib of the drop (~158.24), with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 158.01, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.44, 158.77
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.01 range low reopens the 157.88 swing low, then the 157.40 rebound low
A close above the 158.19 range high and the 61.8% fib near 158.24 exposes the 158.44 breakdown level, with the 158.77 prior high beyond
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could break the London range in either direction
Official yen rhetoric intensifies as price approaches 158.50–158.60
08:46 UTC
Rebound from Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 158.134
V-recovery into a tight early-London range under the 61.8% fib.
The Democratic-sweep USD selloff drove a 134-pip Asia session slide from 158.74 to the 157.40 Asian low. The V-shaped rebound has since stalled in the 50–61.8% fib zone. Early London is holding a 158.01–158.19 range just above the ema20 (~158.05) and on top of the ema50 (~158.12), with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 158.01, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.23, 158.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 range top and the 61.8% fib at 158.23 opens the 158.56 swing high, inside the 158.50–158.60 zone where Tokyo intervention rhetoric intensifies
Break of the 158.01 range low and the 158.00 handle exposes the 157.88 swing low, then the 157.40 Asian low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Rebound after election drop, now flattening · RSI 57 · price 158.114
V-recovery stalled at 50% retrace, tight early-London range above 158.00.
The election drop in Asia ran from 158.77 to the 157.40 election low after the Democratic sweep. Firm US data has since helped retrace about half the move, and early London is compressing in a 158.01 range low to 158.19 range top band. Price is above a rising EMA20 and pinned at the EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 158.01, 157.92, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 range top opens the 61.8% fib at 158.24 and the 158.30 prior high
Break below the 158.01 range low and the 158.00 pivot exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.92
Loss of 157.40 election low would resume the post-election downleg
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Democratic sweep drove a ~137-pip slide from 158.77 into a 157.40 session low during Asia. The rebound has retraced to the 50% fib near 158.08. Early London is boxed between the 158.01 range low and a 158.19 range top that has capped four times, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.01, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 range top and the 158.24 61.8% fib opens the path to the 158.44 breakdown shelf
Failure to hold the 158.01 range low exposes the 157.88 swing low, then the 157.40 session low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Recovery leg inside a broader intraday sell-off · RSI 53 · price 158.114
Higher lows off the 157.40 Asian low, capped under 158.19.
Democratic-sweep USD selling took the pair from 158.77 to a 157.40 Asian low. The rebound has retraced about 58% into the London open, but three tests of the 158.19 London high have been rejected while higher lows build at 158.04, with price pressing EMA50 just under the fib 61.8 at 158.24.
Support: 158.04, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.04 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and puts the 157.88 swing low back in play
Close above 158.24 (fib 61.8) clears the London high cap and opens the 158.60 range top
Loss of 157.88 exposes the 157.40 Asian low
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
V-shaped rebound after Asia selloff, stalling · RSI 65 · price 158.139
Higher lows off 157.40 Asia low, capped under 61.8% fib.
Asia session dropped about 137 pips from the 158.77 NY high to the 157.40 asia low as the Democratic sweep pulled US yields lower. A V-shaped rebound of higher lows reached a 158.19 rebound high into London open, and price is now stalling under the 61.8% fib at 158.24. The flat EMA50 sits near 158.14 and the 158.04 pullback low anchors the rebound HL line.
Support: 158.04, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 61.8% fib opens the 158.44 breakdown area
Loss of the 158.04 pullback low breaks the rebound HL line and exposes the 157.88 higher low
Failure at 157.88 puts the 157.40 asia low back in focus
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 157.40 asian low, testing 61.8% retrace.
The Democratic sweep drove a 137-pip Asia session slide from the 158.77 NY high to the 157.40 asian low as USD and yields fell. A higher-low chain since 04:30 UTC, with a swing low at 157.88 and a higher low at 158.04, has lifted price to 158.15 into London open. Price sits just above EMA50 and is retesting the 158.19 rebound high to 61.8% fib zone where the breakdown began.
Support: 158.04, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 61.8% fib opens the 158.60 range top (Tuesday's JOLTS spike high)
Loss of the 158.04 higher low breaks the rebound trendline; below the 157.88 swing low the rebound read fails
Break of the 157.40 asian low resumes the post-election decline
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Asia selloff, retracing toward the 61.8% fib · RSI 53 · price 158.091
Higher lows since the 157.40 Asian low, capped near 158.19.
The Asia selloff took the pair from 158.77 to the 157.40 Asian low on USD selling after the Democratic midterm sweep. Since 04:30 UTC a higher-low chain has rebuilt half the move, and the 06:30 UTC bar was rejected at the 158.19 rebound high, a former London-session floor, just below the 61.8% fib at 158.24. RSI is neutral near 53 ahead of London open.
Support: 157.875, 157.397
Resistance: 158.186, 158.243, 158.441
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 61.8% fib opens the 158.44 breakdown level from the start of the Asia slide
Loss of the 157.875 higher low reopens the 157.40 Asian low
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any escalation in MoF intervention language near the 158.20–158.60 area
06:46 UTC
Sharp Asia selloff, V-shaped recovery in progress · RSI 54 · price 158.172
Lower low at 157.40, rebound now testing the 61.8% fib.
USD selling after the Democratic sweep of Congress drove a 137-pip Asia session drop from the 158.77 prior high to a 157.40 session low, breaking yesterday's 158.45–158.77 range. Since 04:30 UTC the rebound has retraced past 50% and sits just above the EMA50 near 158.14, with the 61.8% fib at 158.24 next and the 158.60 asia high above it. The rebound is riding a rising trendline from the low, with the 158.00 round number as the first shelf.
Support: 158.00, 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.24, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 rejection at the 158.24 61.8% fib keeps the selloff structure intact; a close above it opens 158.60 asia high
Close back below the 158.00 round number and the 157.88 trendline would break the recovery sequence
Loss of the 157.40 session low confirms a fresh lower low ahead of London open
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 157.40 session low, testing the 50% retrace and EMA50.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep took USDJPY from the 158.77 NY high to a 157.40 session low in Asia. That low swept the 157.55–157.60 asian base and reversed into a 70-pip recovery. A chain of higher lows (latest 157.88) now has price testing the 50% retrace and EMA50 near 158.08 ahead of London open, with the 158.13 bounce high capping.
Support: 157.88, 157.58, 157.40
Resistance: 158.13, 158.24, 158.48
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.13 bounce high and the 61.8% fib at 158.24 opens the 158.45–158.51 breakdown zone
Loss of the 157.88 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and reopens the 157.58 asian base and 157.40 session low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF intervention language would add downside volatility into any push toward 158.50
Lower high pending; rebound testing the midpoint of the 158.77–157.40 drop.
USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep took the pair from 158.77 to a 157.40 session low through the Asia session, the steepest leg of the window. Late-Asia short-covering lifted it 65 pips back above 158.00 along a steep rebound line. It is now stalling just under the 50% fib and EMA50 near 158.08 ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) at 60.
Support: 157.90, 157.75, 157.40
Resistance: 158.08, 158.24, 158.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.24 undercuts the lower-high read and puts the 158.46 breakdown pt back in view
Loss of the rebound line and the 38.2% fib near 157.90 exposes the 157.75 prior low, then the 157.40 session low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC (f/c 69K) and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Sharp Asia sell-off, bounce in progress · RSI 58 · price 158.028
Lower-low sequence ended at 157.40; higher lows since, bounce stalling at 50% fib.
The Democratic midterm sweep drove USD selling through the Asia session, taking the pair 137 pips from 158.77 to a 157.40 session low, where a long-wicked rejection bar marked the turn. The rebound has built higher lows into late Asia but is capped at the 50% fib near 158.05, still below the 158.51 breakdown area.
Support: 157.88, 157.40
Resistance: 158.05, 158.24, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 158.05 opens the 61.8% fib at 158.24
Loss of the 157.88 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.40 session low back in focus
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a strong print would put the 158.51 breakdown area in range
05:46 UTC
Downtrend from 158.77, rebounding in late Asia · RSI 53 · price 157.943
Lower lows through Asia, V-shaped bounce reclaiming the 157.80 cap.
Asia sold off from the 158.70s shelf after the Democratic House win dragged US yields lower. The drop printed a 157.40 session low before a sharp rejection, and the rebound reclaimed the 157.80 flip zone, where Asia's lower highs had been capping. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib near 157.92, stalling at the 158.00 round number with fib 50% at 158.08 and fib 61.8% at 158.24 above; RSI(14) is neutral.
Support: 157.80, 157.40
Resistance: 158.00, 158.08, 158.24
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.80 flip zone reopens the 157.40 session low
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number and fib 50% at 158.08 extends the retracement toward fib 61.8% at 158.24
London open in ~1.5h; US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs broken on rebound; testing 38.2% of the selloff.
Asia session carried the post-midterm USD selloff from the 158.77 prior high to a 157.40 session low as US yields slid. The low briefly undercut 157.46, a false break, before a two-bar rebound of about 50 pips broke the Asia lower highs near 157.80–157.88. The rebound high at 157.94 sits just above the 38.2% fib of the selloff, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 157.80, 157.40
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00, 158.08
What it said to watch
Holding the 157.80 broken highs keeps the rebound structure intact; a slip back below reopens the 157.40 session low
M15 close above the 158.00 round number and the 50% fib at 158.08 would end the Asia lower-high sequence
London open is the first test of whether the 157.94 rebound high caps
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 158.77; latest bar broke the lower-high line.
The Democratic House win drove a 137-pip Asia-session slide from 158.77 to a 157.40 session low as US yields fell. A sharp rejection at that low, with a bullish RSI(14) divergence, broke the lower-high line and reclaimed the 157.75 prior low. Price now presses the EMA20 near 157.88 in late Asia, with swing low support at 157.54.
Support: 157.75, 157.54, 157.40
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00, 158.08
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.88 ema20 and the 158.00 round number opens the fib 50% retracement at 158.08
Failure to hold the 157.75 prior low puts the 157.54 swing low and 157.40 session low back in focus
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing · RSI 34 · price 157.553
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.77 NY high; Asian range 157.40-157.88.
Early midterm results showing Democratic gains drove a 137-pip Asia session slide from the 158.77 NY high through the prior-day low at 157.75 to a session low at 157.40. Since then price has chopped below a descending trendline in a sequence of lower highs, most recently at 157.72. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold, late in the Asian range with London open about two hours away.
Support: 157.40, 157.00
Resistance: 157.72, 157.88
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.88 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 38.2% fib near 157.92 into play.
Repeated rejection at the 157.72 lower high keeps the descending trendline intact.
Failure to hold the 157.40 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.00 psych floor.
Senate race calls during London hours could materially shift this read. ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) follow later today.
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low on the last bar · RSI 29 · price 157.407
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; 157.54–157.88 consolidation broken lower.
The Asia session extended a roughly 137-pip slide from the 158.77 NY high as early midterm tallies pulled US yields lower. Price cut through yesterday's 157.75 prior low, then broke out of the 157.54–157.88 consolidation. The last bar printed a fresh session low at 157.40, with descending highs capping every bounce and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 157.397, 157.00
Resistance: 157.634, 157.751, 157.877
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.63 lower high stalls the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 157.75 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 157.88 swing high breaks the descending highs line and the intraday downtrend read
Below the 157.40 session low, the 157.00 range floor is the next reference; it held the post-BoJ dip
Senate race calls into London open could swing US yields and shift this read
The Asia session sell-off ran about 130 pips, from the 158.77 high to the 157.46 session low, as early midterm tallies pulled US yields lower. Price is grinding below the broken prior low at 157.75 with a stack of lower highs under a descending trendline. RSI(14) sits near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 157.46, 157.00
Resistance: 157.75, 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 157.88 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.46 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.00 range floor
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number puts the 38.2% of the Asia sell-off near 157.96 back in play
Senate race calls: a split Congress could trigger a USD relief bounce, while a sweep extends the yield-driven slide
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 36 · price 157.666
Asia sell-off into a tight base, lower highs inside 157.54–157.80.
Early US midterm tallies pulled US yields lower and knocked USDJPY roughly 120 pips during the Asia session, from 158.74 to a 157.54 asia low and through the 157.75 London low from the prior day. Late in the Asian session, price is compressing between 157.54 and the 157.80 range top with lower highs. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR(14) around 19 pips.
Support: 157.54, 157.00
Resistance: 157.80, 158.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.54 asia low extends the lower-low sequence, with 157.00 as the next reference as the range floor
An M15 close above the 157.80 range top, then the 158.00 round number at the 38.2% fib, would mark a deeper retracement of the slide
Senate race calls and US yield moves into the London open, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 33 · price 157.61
Lower highs from 158.77; tight 157.54–157.80 base late in Asia.
Asia session unwound Tuesday's JOLTS-driven rally, dropping ~120 pips from the 158.77 NY high as early midterm tallies pulled US yields lower. Price is now compressing between the 157.54 asian low and a 157.80 bounce cap that capped three rebound attempts. RSI(14) sits near 33 after an oversold dip.
Support: 157.54, 157.50
Resistance: 157.80, 157.98
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.80 bounce cap opens a retest of the 157.98 prior low and the 38.2% retrace near 158.01
Failure to hold the 157.54 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.50 psych level
London open typically resets the Asian range; a break of either side of 157.54–157.80 sets the session tone
Senate control calls could extend or reverse the election-driven drop
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalysts
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after Asia selloff · RSI 34 · price 157.749
Lower highs from 158.77, tight base 157.54–157.88.
Asia session broke below the 158.63–158.77 overnight range as early midterm tallies favoured Democrats and US yields fell, sending price about 120 pips lower and through yesterday's London low near 157.75. Price is now holding a tight base between the 157.54 session low and the 157.88 bounce high, with RSI(14) lifting from the low 30s.
Support: 157.54, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 158.01
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 bounce high opens a retracement toward the 38.2% fib of the decline near 158.01
Failure at the 157.54 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 round number
Senate control calls or contested counts during Asia and into the London open could move this read sharply
Lower highs after breakdown below prior Asian range low.
Asia session sold off ~120 pips from 158.74 as early midterm counts favoured Democrats and US yields fell, cutting through the prior low at 157.75. Price is now compressing just above the 157.54 session low under a lower-highs line, RSI(14) near 29 with ATR expanded to ~18 pips.
Support: 157.54, 157.50
Resistance: 157.75, 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.75 prior low would mark the breakdown as a false break
Loss of the 157.54 session low exposes the 157.50 round number
Reclaim of the 157.88 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 158.00 38.2% fib above
Senate calls and close-race counts during the remainder of Asia could swing yields and this read either way
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.56; Tuesday's range broken to the downside.
Asia session unwound Tuesday's NY rally to 158.77 as early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit the USD, with a 120-pip slide breaking the 157.75 prior low and printing a 157.54 session low. Bounces are capped along a descending trendline, with the 157.88 bounce high followed by lower highs near 157.75. RSI(14) is near 28, soft but not extreme.
Support: 157.54, 157.50
Resistance: 157.75, 157.877, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.75 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.54 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 round number
Reclaim of the 157.88 bounce high and the descending trendline, then 158.00 at the 38.2% fib, would neutralise the selloff structure
Further House/Senate calls and any MoF intervention language could materially shift this read; ADP and ISM Services follow later Wednesday
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after sharp Asia selloff · RSI 23 · price 157.576
Lower highs, broke below Tuesday low.
The Asia session selloff wiped out Tuesday's rally to 158.77. USD/JPY shed about 120 pips as early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit the dollar, taking out the 157.75 Tuesday low. Lower highs at 158.56 and the 157.88 bounce high define a falling trendline, and price sits on the 157.57 session low with RSI(14) near 23, oversold.
Support: 157.57, 157.50
Resistance: 157.75, 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.75 Tuesday low would turn the break into a false break
Clearance of the falling trendline and the 157.88 bounce high would end the lower-high sequence; the 158.00 round number sits above
Failure to hold the 157.57 session low exposes the 157.50 round number
Further House/Senate calls in the midterm count could extend or unwind the selloff in the coming hours
Lower highs and lower lows since the 23:15 UTC peak; Tuesday's Asian low broken.
Early Asia session took USDJPY about 116 pips off Tuesday's 158.77 high as initial midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked the dollar. Price broke through Tuesday's 157.75 prior low to a 157.60 session low. The 02:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 157.88 bounce high, and price is back under 157.75 with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 157.603
Resistance: 157.751, 157.877
What it said to watch
Holding below the 157.75 prior low keeps the range break intact; a reclaim brings the 157.88 bounce high back into view
A break of the 157.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 157.00 range floor cited in the digest is the next reference
A recovery to 158.18 (50% fib, 01:00 UTC breakdown bar) would neutralise the selloff read
Further House/Senate calls or MoF intervention remarks could materially shift this read; ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next data risk
Asia breakdown from 158.70s plateau; lower highs, prior low swept and reclaimed.
Asia session broke down from the 158.70s NY plateau as early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit the dollar. The ~116-pip slide swept the prior low at 157.75 to a 157.60 session low before a sharp rebound to a 157.88 bounce high. Price holds back above 157.75 with RSI(14) near 31, and the 158.00 round number sits beside the 38.2% fib as the first overhead test.
Support: 157.75, 157.60
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00, 158.18
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.75 prior low reopens the 157.60 session low and the 157.00 range floor flagged in the digest
M15 close above 157.88 bounce high, then 158.00 round number, would mark the sweep low as a short-term base; fib 50% at 158.18 next
Further midterm calls (Democratic sweep vs split Congress) can extend or unwind this leg within the Asia session
Fresh Japan MoF intervention remarks add downside volatility risk
Lower highs and lower lows; Tuesday's low broken in early Asia.
Early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked USD/JPY out of its 158.70 overnight range in the Asia session. The pair has dropped about 116 pips from the 158.77 NY high, cutting through the 157.75 Tuesday low to a 157.60 session low. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and the lower-high chain is intact, with 157.84 the latest lower high.
Support: 157.60, 157.50
Resistance: 157.75, 157.84, 158.05
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 157.75 tuesday low keeps the breakdown intact; an M15 close above the 157.84 lower high signals the leg is stalling
Break of the 157.60 session low exposes the 157.50 round number
Any rebound runs into the fib 38.2 retracement of the selloff near 158.05
Further House/Senate calls can extend or reverse this move; ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC follow
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, prior-day low broken.
An Asia session sell-off of roughly 115 pips from the 158.77 NY high, as US midterm results land, broke Tuesday's 157.75 prior low and printed a 157.60 asia low. RSI(14) near 21 is deeply oversold. Descending highs from 158.74 capped the 00:45 UTC bounce at the 158.56 lower high, with the 158.03 breakdown shelf the nearest overhead marker beyond 157.75.
Support: 157.603, 157.00
Resistance: 157.751, 158.03, 158.559
What it said to watch
A failure to reclaim the 157.75 prior low keeps the lower-low sequence intact. A close back above it signals the break stalling.
An M15 close above the 158.03 breakdown level and the descending highs line would invalidate the Asia downtrend read.
A loss of the 157.60 asia low leaves the 157.00 round number as the next marked level.
Senate race calls through Asia could extend or sharply reverse this move.
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia reversal · RSI 24 · price 157.987
Lower highs since 158.74, NY swing low at 157.98 broken.
Asia session reversed the JOLTS-driven NY gains. USD/JPY broke the 158.63–158.75 late-NY range and fell about 80 pips to the 157.955 asia low as midterm results landed, leaving lower highs at 158.60 and 158.559. Price now sits below the 158.00 round number and the 157.98 NY swing low, has retraced roughly 77% of the 157.75–158.77 rally, and RSI(14) is near 24.
Support: 157.955, 157.751
Resistance: 158.00, 158.30, 158.559
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number would mark the 157.98 break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.955 asia low exposes the 157.75 prior low
Recovery through the 158.559 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 158.30 london high sits in between
Senate race calls overnight could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric remains a two-way risk
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia selloff · RSI 30 · price 158.213
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.77, testing 158.17 session low.
The early Asia session broke the 158.65–158.75 overnight plateau as US midterm results landed. Price has since printed a lower-high chain (158.60, 158.56) and slipped to a 158.17 session low, below yesterday's 158.30 London high. Price now sits near the 61.8% retrace of the 157.98–158.77 leg, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR roughly doubled from the overnight lull.
Support: 158.17, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.56, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.17 session low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.98 NY swing low
Reclaim of the 158.30 london high and then the 158.56 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Senate race calls and MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read during Asia hours
Downtrend line from the 158.77 prior high caps rebounds while lower highs hold
01:16 UTC
Intraday pullback from highs, lower high in place · RSI 37 · price 158.457
Overnight shelf broken, lower high at 158.56 below the 158.60 prior high.
Early Asia broke the 158.63–158.75 overnight shelf as US midterm results began landing, dropping to a 158.25 Asia low. The bounce stalled at 158.56, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 158.77 NY high and just under the 158.60 prior high. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR has expanded to roughly 10 pips from 3–4 pips through the quiet late-NY hours.
Support: 158.25, 158.00
Resistance: 158.56, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.56 bounce high and 158.60 prior high negates the lower-high read and reopens the 158.77 NY high
Failure to hold the 158.25 Asia low confirms a lower low and exposes the 158.00 round number
Overnight Senate race calls: a Democratic sweep is the USD-negative tail, while a GOP hold would be USD-positive
Escalating MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric could add two-way volatility near 158.60
01:01 UTC
Intraday downturn after an up day, momentum stretched lower · RSI 31 · price 158.389
Overnight 158.62–158.75 range broken lower, lower highs into Asia session.
The pair shed roughly 50 pips off the 158.77 swing high in the first hour of the Asia session as midterm results landed. That drop broke the overnight range, and a bounce was rejected at the 158.60 range top, the post-JOLTS spike high. Price now sits just above the 158.25 asia low, below the 158.45 shelf, with RSI(14) near 31 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 158.25, 157.98
Resistance: 158.45, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.45 shelf (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.25 asia low exposes the 157.98 ny low and the 158.00 handle
Overnight Senate race calls could materially shift this read in either direction
MoF intervention rhetoric remains a cap if price returns to the 158.60 range top or the swing high
London-NY HH/HL chain broken by 23:45 UTC drop; holding 158.44 swing low.
The JOLTS beat at 15:00 UTC lifted USD/JPY through the 158.30 London high and on to a 158.77 day high in late NY hours. As midterm results came in, a 22-pip drop at 23:45 UTC broke the 158.70–158.75 range and the rising support line, tagging the 158.44 swing low near the 38.2% fib. Early Asia is holding that low, with the bounce capped at 158.60 and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 158.44, 158.30
Resistance: 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.44 swing low exposes the 158.30 London high and the 50% fib near 158.37
A recovery above the 158.60 bounce high puts price back over the broken rising support and reopens the 158.77 day high
The midterm Senate call could drive another fast move; a disorderly spike risks Japanese intervention rhetoric
HH/HL chain from the 157.75 low, latest bar back below the 158.60 range top.
The JOLTS and Factory Orders beats lifted USD/JPY through the 158.60 range top to a 158.766 session high. A 22-pip drop into the early Asia session, as midterm results roll in, pulled it back to 158.47. RSI(14) is near 27 after the flush, and the 158.41 pullback low and the rising trendline from the 157.75 low are the next structural tests.
Support: 158.413, 158.271, 158.00
Resistance: 158.60, 158.766
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.41 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
A recovery above the 158.60 range top would recast the drop as a pullback rather than a false break
Below 158.41, the 38.2% fib near 158.38, the 158.27 jolts base and the 158.00 pivot come into view
The Senate call or any MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read