USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Range-bound, momentum flat after a V-shaped recovery · RSI 53 · price 158.395
157.40–158.77 weekly range; lower high at 158.67 under the week high, higher low at 158.17.
USD/JPY has held a 157.40–158.77 range all week. Tuesday's rally on firm US data set the week high, then the Democratic midterm sweep pushed price to the 157.40 week low in Wednesday's Asia session, a false break below Monday's lows that London fully reclaimed as JPY lagged the broad USD slide. NY hours stalled at a Wednesday high of 158.67, a lower high under the week high, and price is now compressing just above EMA(20) near 158.36 with RSI(14) flat around 53, after the 158.17 swing low held at the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's recovery.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high breaks the range top, an area where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped gains
Failure to hold the 158.17 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 61.8% fib near 157.88
Lower-highs line from the week high caps price unless 158.67 is cleared
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC and Thursday's Japan wage data could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP and Ueda's IMF remarks are the main risks for a break of the week's range
V-shaped Wednesday recovery into a lower high below the week high.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally set the week high at 158.77. The Democratic midterm sweep then hit USD in Wednesday's Asia session, driving a sharp drop to the 157.40 week low. JPY could not hold the gain, and price retraced almost the whole drop through London and NY, stalling at Wednesday's high of 158.67 inside the 158.50-158.60 area where intervention rhetoric caps upside. Price now sits just above EMA(20) at 158.35 with RSI(14) near 57, and the NY pullback low at 158.17 held at the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday recovery.
Support: 158.35, 158.17, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high clears the lower-high and pushes into the intervention-risk zone above 158.60
Loss of the 158.17 pullback low breaks the Wednesday higher-low trendline and reopens the 157.40 week low
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 158.35 would mark the recovery leg as exhausted under the wed high
BoJ minutes 23:50 UTC tonight and Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC are the USD-side risk to the range
The week opened at 157.47, and Tuesday's London-to-NY push on the JOLTS beat carried price to the 158.77 week high. The Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD in Wednesday's Asia session, dropping price to the 157.40 week low just under Monday's low, but the yen could not hold the move and the drop was fully reclaimed into London. Since then a 158.17–158.67 range has formed: the Wed high printed a lower high inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone, and the NY low held the 38.2% of the recovery fib, with price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.55, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.77 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the intervention zone
Failure to hold the 158.17 NY low and the rising trendline exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 157.40 week low
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight and Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY side of the read
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Friday's NFP are the USD-side risks to the 158.17–158.67 range
Higher low at 157.40, lower high at 158.67 under 158.77.
Wednesday's Asia-session slide on the Democratic midterm sweep broke Monday's 157.60 lows and set a week low at 157.40. The yen could not hold the move, and the pair was back above 158.50 by the London morning. Since then price has compressed between the ema50/38.2% retrace zone near 158.17, which caught both NY-session dips, and Wednesday's 158.67 high, a lower high beneath Tuesday's 158.77 week high. Price holds above ema20 at 158.34 with RSI(14) near 59, sitting inside the 158.50-158.60 band where Tokyo's intervention rhetoric has capped upside.
Support: 158.34, 158.17, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.77 week high would break the lower-high sequence and the top of this week's range
Loss of the ema50/38.2% zone near 158.17 and the rebound support line re-exposes 158.00 and the 157.40 week low
Escalating Tokyo intervention language around 158.50-158.60 could trigger sharp intraday reversals
BoJ minutes 23:50 UTC tonight, Japan wages Thu 23:30 UTC, then NFP and Ueda on Fri could materially shift this read
Lower high at 158.67 under the 158.77 week high; higher low at 158.17 inside a 157.40–158.77 range.
Monday's lift from the 157.47 weekly open built a 157.60–158.00 range. Price broke above it in Tuesday's London session, and the JOLTS beat carried the move to the 158.77 week high in NY. The Democratic midterm sweep then drove an Asia-session flush to the 157.40 midterm low, but price reclaimed the 158.00 range top by London and printed a lower high at 158.67 after the ISM Services miss. RSI(14) has cooled to about 55 and price sits just above EMA(20) near 158.33, with the 158.17 NY low aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the midterm rebound.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high would break the lower-highs line and push into the 158.50–158.60 intervention-rhetoric zone
Failure to hold the 158.17 NY low and the rebound trendline would expose the 158.00 range top
A close back below the 158.00 range top would reopen the 157.40 midterm low
BoJ Minutes 23:50 UTC tonight, Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from 157.40 into a lower high under 158.77.
Wednesday's Asia session drove the week's main swing. The midterm-driven USD selloff took the pair from Tuesday's 158.77 week high, set in late NY, to an election low at 157.40, but the yen failed to hold its gains and London retraced nearly the whole drop. NY hours then printed a lower high at 158.67 just above the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 158.31 with RSI(14) flat around 50. EMA(50) near 158.17 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the rebound, and that area held into the London-NY transition.
Support: 158.17, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.31, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.17 (EMA(50) / 38.2% rebound fib) exposes the 158.00 round number
Failure to hold 158.00 reopens the 157.40 election low and the rising lows trendline from last Friday
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 158.77 week high would break the range top, where the digest flags intervention rhetoric risk
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC tonight and Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri are the next USD-side catalysts for the range
V-shaped recovery from Wednesday Asia flush, now consolidating 158.21–158.67 under the 158.77 week high.
After Monday's 157.60–158.00 range, USDJPY broke higher through London and NY Tuesday to the 158.77 week high. The Democratic midterm sweep then knocked it to a 157.40 week low in Wednesday's Asia session, a false break below the 157.47 week open, and the drop was fully reclaimed through London. With USD heavy but JPY lagging, price is holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and boxed between the 158.21 NY low and the 158.67 day high, with RSI(14) flattening near 59 as the second push stalls below the week high inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-warning zone.
Support: 158.21, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high breaks the lower-high line and puts the market above Tokyo's flagged 158.50–158.60 intervention zone, where official rhetoric is likely to intensify
Failure to hold the 158.21 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% recovery fib near 158.18
Loss of 158.00 reopens the 157.40 week low and puts the Asia false break read at risk
BoJ minutes tonight 23:50 UTC and Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.8%) could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC, ahead of Friday's NFP, is the next USD-side risk to the range
16:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovered to upper half after midterm dip · RSI 56 · price 158.433
157.40–158.77 weekly range; higher low 158.21 and lower high 158.67 compressing under week high.
USDJPY broke out of Monday's 157.60–158.00 range in Tuesday's London session and set the week high at 158.77 late in NY. The Democratic midterm sweep knocked it to the 157.40 week low in Wednesday's Asia session, just under the 157.47 weekly open, but London reclaimed the whole drop as the yen again failed to gain on broad USD weakness. NY has since printed a higher low at 158.21 and a lower high at 158.67 beneath the week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 158.30 and RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s.
Support: 158.21, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high breaks the range top inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-warning zone
Break of the 158.21 higher low and the higher-lows trendline puts 158.00, Monday's high, back in play
Loss of 158.00 reopens the range toward the 157.40 week low
Rejection at the 158.67 lower high keeps the lower-highs line from the week high intact
BoJ Minutes tonight 23:50 UTC; Thu US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could shift this read
15:02 UTC
Range-bound, V-shaped recovery from Asia flush · RSI 60 · price 158.526
Higher lows since Wed low, capped below 158.60 range top.
Tuesday's London and NY sessions lifted the pair from the 157.90s through the 158.60 range top to a week high at 158.77. The Democratic midterm sweep then flushed it to the Wed low at 157.40 during Asia, a false break of Monday's 157.60 floor. London bought back the entire drop, and the ADP beat (86K vs 69K) held the 158.21 higher low into the NY open. Price now sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 60, retesting supply around 158.55–158.60, where Tokyo intervention rhetoric has kept a lid on the range top.
Support: 158.21, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks reopening 158.00 and the Wed low
H1 close above the 158.60 range top and then the 158.77 week high would mark a break of this week's range
Failure to hold the 158.21 higher low breaks the rising support from the Wed low and exposes the 158.00 round number
Escalation in Japanese intervention language near 158.60 could trigger sharp two-way moves
Labor Cash Earnings Thu 23:30 UTC and Ueda Fri 16:00 UTC are the yen-side catalysts for a move back toward 157.40
157.40–158.77 weekly range; higher lows since Asia flush, lower high at 158.59.
Wednesday's Asia-hours flush on the midterm-driven USD selloff tagged 157.40, the week low, and was rejected. The rebound through London reclaimed the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) near 158.28 as the ADP beat revived the strong-data, hawkish-Fed read, while the pullback low at 158.21 held above the 38.2% of the rebound fib. Price sits in the upper half of the range, capped so far by a session high at 158.59 that is a lower high versus Tuesday's 158.77 week high, the zone where Tokyo intervention rhetoric has kept a lid.
Support: 158.21, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read within the next bar
H1 close below the 158.21 pullback low and the rebound line exposes the 158.00 round number and 50% rebound fib
Acceptance above the 158.59 session high brings the 158.77 week high into play, where intervention language could intensify
Failure of the 157.40 week low breaks the range floor and reverses the rebound read
Lower high at 158.59 under the 158.77 week high; 157.40–158.77 weekly range.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally carried the pair to the 158.77 week high. Asia-session selling on the Democratic midterm sweep then drove a near 140-pip drop to the 157.40 week low, which held well above the rising support from last Thursday's 156.96 low. The rebound recovered most of that fall into a London-session today high at 158.59, a lower high inside the 158.50–158.60 intervention-sensitive zone, and price has since eased back onto EMA(20) near 158.23 with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 158.00, 157.60, 157.40
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
H1 close above the 158.77 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and the range top
Loss of the 158.00 round number (50% fib of the 157.40–158.59 recovery) exposes the 157.60 monday low
Break below the 157.40 week low and rising support negates the dip-recovery structure
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC are a yen-side risk to the range read
The week opened at 157.47 and ground higher through Monday and Tuesday's London and NY sessions to a 158.77 week high. The Democrats' Congress sweep then knocked the pair to an election low of 157.40 in Wednesday's Asia session, briefly dropping below the Monday-Tuesday range lows. The dip was almost fully reclaimed into London, retracing about 87% of the election drop to a 158.59 session high, with price back above EMA(20), the 158.00 round number and the rising lows trendline from last Friday's 156.96 low; RSI(14) near 55 sits mid-range, below Tuesday's peak readings.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.59, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 158.25 and the 61.8% retrace of the election drop would stall the recovery
Loss of the 158.00 round number reopens the 157.40 election low and the rising lows trendline
Acceptance above the 158.59 session high and 158.77 week high takes price into the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped spot
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC are the next JPY-side risk
V-shaped recovery from the midterm low back into the week-high zone.
Firm US data broke Monday's 157.60–158.00 range on Tuesday, and the NY session pushed on to a 158.77 week high. The Democratic midterm sweep then drove a near 100-pip drop early Wednesday to a 157.40 week low, a false break below the weekly open that has since been reversed. Price has recovered about 80% of the midterm drop along a rising recovery trendline, holds above EMA(20) and the 158.00 range top, and is now pressing the 158.50–158.60 Tokyo cap zone with RSI(14) near 60, short of overbought.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.397
Resistance: 158.60, 158.766
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.77 week high clears the Tokyo cap zone; MoF intervention rhetoric is a two-way risk above 158.60
A break of the recovery trendline and loss of EMA(20) near 158.25 would put the 158.00 range top back in focus
Failure to hold 158.00 reopens the 157.40 week low; BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC add risk
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, sharp recovery from election drop · RSI 58 · price 158.402
V-shaped rebound inside the 157.40–158.77 weekly range, higher lows since Wednesday's Asia low.
USD/JPY broke out of Monday's 157.60–158.00 range during London on Tuesday and ran to a 158.77 week high into late NY hours. The Democratic midterm sweep then knocked it to a 157.40 week low in Wednesday's Asia session. The low drew a sharp rejection, and the rebound has retraced about 73% of the drop along a steep recovery trendline. Price is back above EMA(20) near 158.20 and the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 58. The 158.60 wed high, where Tokyo's intervention warnings have capped spot, sits just overhead.
Support: 158.20, 158.00, 157.397
Resistance: 158.603, 158.766
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 wed high reopens the 158.77 week high, the zone where MoF intervention rhetoric has been concentrated
Loss of the recovery trendline and the 158.00 round number would return focus to the 157.40 week low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft pair revives the lower-yield drop
A sustained H1 hold below EMA(20) near 158.20 (61.8% of the drop) would mark the recovery stalling
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC are a JPY risk for any hike-timing signal
Election drop to 157.40 reclaimed; price testing 61.8% retracement of the fall.
The week opened at 157.47 and ground higher through Monday and Tuesday to a week high of 158.77 late in Tuesday's NY session. The Democratic sweep then knocked USD/JPY 137 pips to an election low of 157.40 in Wednesday's Asia session, a false break below the weekly open that has since been fully reclaimed, with solid US data cushioning the dollar. Price is back above EMA(20) near 158.16 and EMA(50) near 158.07 and is pressing the 61.8% fib of the drop at 158.24, with RSI(14) recovered to 53, neutral rather than stretched.
Support: 158.16, 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.24, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.24 reopens the 158.50–158.60 intervention zone and the 158.77 week high
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 158.00 round number returns focus to the 157.40 election low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalating Tokyo rhetoric or rate-check reports near the 158.60 intervention zone would change the read
BoJ minutes at 23:50 GMT are a secondary risk for yen direction overnight
Election drop half-retraced, price stalled at 158.00 pivot.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally from 157.75 set a week high at 158.77. The Democratic Congress sweep then drove a 137-pip election drop to a 157.40 week low during the Asia session. The rebound into London open stalled at a 158.19 rebound high, just shy of the 61.8% fib at 158.24, and price now sits on the 158.00 psych level, with RSI(14) flat near 49. Price is fractionally below the EMA(20) at 158.13 and EMA(50) at 158.07, inside a 157.40–158.77 weekly range, with the Monday low at 157.60 as the first shelf beneath the pivot.
Support: 158.00, 157.60, 157.40
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.24 would extend the recovery of the election drop toward the week high at 158.77
Failure to hold psych 158 reopens the Monday low at 157.60 and the 157.40 week low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC are the next JPY-side risk to the range
07:02 UTC
Two-way, sharp V-rebound off Asia low · RSI 52 · price 158.14
157.00–158.77 range; Wednesday spike low retraced into 50–61.8% zone.
From the 157.47 weekly open, Tuesday's London and NY sessions drove a clean leg to a 158.77 week high. That leg ran on firm US data and broke above the 158.00 Monday high. In Wednesday's Asia session, USD selling on the Democratic midterm sweep knocked the pair 137 pips to a 157.40 Asia low. That low held well above Friday's 156.96 swing low and kept the higher-lows line from that low intact. A rejection there then produced a V-rebound into the 50–61.8% fib zone, with price now pinned at EMA(20) near 158.15 and RSI(14) back at neutral 52, while the 158.60 range top flagged by MoF warnings sits above.
Support: 158.00, 157.40, 156.96
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.25 (61.8% fib) reopens the 158.60 range top and the 158.77 week high
Failure to hold 158.00 (Monday high) exposes the 157.40 Asia low again
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
A break of the higher-lows line and the 156.96 swing low invalidates the range read
Tuesday break above the 157.60–158.00 range fully reversed; price rebounding inside it.
Firm US data drove USDJPY from Tuesday's 157.75 Asian range low to a 158.77 week high through the London and NY sessions, breaking the Monday–Tuesday 157.60–158.00 range. The Democratic midterm sweep reversed that in Wednesday's Asia session, with a near 90-pip hourly drop to a 157.40 asia low that held above the 157.47 weekly open on a closing basis. The rebound to 158.03 sits near the 50% retrace of the midterm slide, just below EMA(20) at 158.14 and EMA(50) near 158.05, with RSI(14) at 47. Tuesday's breakout now reads as a false break back into the old range.
Support: 157.47, 157.40, 156.96
Resistance: 158.14, 158.24, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.24 would put the 158.77 week high back in play
Failure back below the 157.40 asia low and 157.47 weekly open exposes the 156.96 boj low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
MoF intervention rhetoric remains a cap on re-tests of the 158.60–158.77 week high zone
05:02 UTC
Sharp reversal lower from the week high, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 157.847
Failed break above Monday's range, price back inside 157.60–158.00.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally broke Monday's 157.60–158.00 range and set a week high at 158.77, just above the 158.50–158.60 zone where intervention risk is highest. The whole move was erased in Asia as early midterm results pulled US yields lower. An 86-pip drop in the 01:00 UTC hour took price below the Monday low to the 157.40 asia low before demand stepped in. Price now sits under the old range top at 158.00 and below EMA(20) near 158.13, with RSI(14) at 40 after unwinding from overbought on Tuesday.
Support: 157.60, 157.40, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 158.00 range top and the ema20 near 158.13 would weaken the false-break read; the 38.2% retracement of the drop sits at 157.92
A break of the 157.60 monday low reopens the 157.40 asia low, then 156.96, the prior low from the post-BoJ dip
Lower highs from the 158.77 week high cap the rebound while the line holds
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today, along with Senate race calls, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low reversed, sharp Asia selloff · RSI 33 · price 157.649
Rebound line broken, back inside Monday's range.
Tuesday's London-to-NY leg from 157.86 to a 158.77 week high, on firm US data, unwound in the Asia session. Early midterm tallies hit the dollar and an 86-pip hourly drop cut back below 158.00 and through the rebound line from Friday's 156.96 post-BoJ swing low. Price now sits back inside Monday's 157.60–158.00 range, on the 61.8% retracement of the rebound fib near 157.65, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs. That turns Tuesday's push above the range top into a false break.
Support: 157.54, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.25, 158.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.54 asia low extends the retracement past 61.8% toward the 157.47 weekly open
Failure to hold the weekly open opens the path back to the 156.96 swing low
Recovery above the 158.00 range top and the 158.25 breakdown point would neutralise the false break read
Senate calls through Wednesday plus ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A renewed approach to the 158.77 week high runs into Tokyo's intervention sensitivity near 158.60
Tuesday breakout above 158.00 fully erased; price back inside Monday's range below EMA20/50.
From the 157.47 weekly open, USDJPY spent Monday in a 157.60–158.00 range, then broke out through London and NY on Tuesday after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, reaching a 158.77 week high. That move was erased in a single Asia session hour on Wednesday as early midterm tallies showed Democratic gains. The drop broke the rising trendline off the BoJ low and leaves price at the 61.8% retracement near 157.65, above the 157.54 Asia low and below EMA20 at 158.19. RSI(14) has slipped to 38 from the high-60s.
Support: 157.54, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.19, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.00 range high would turn Wednesday's drop into a false break lower and put EMA20 at 158.19 back in play
Failure to hold the 157.54 Asia low and the 157.47 weekly open exposes the Friday lows toward the 156.96 BoJ low
Confirmed midterm outcome (Democratic sweep vs split Congress) could materially shift this read during today's sessions
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) during NY hours, then BoJ minutes at 23:50 UTC
Intervention rhetoric remains a factor on any return toward the 158.77 week high
Failed breakout above 158.60, back at Monday's range floor.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally on firm US data cleared the 158.60 range top to a 158.77 week high. The whole move unwound in a single 89-pip bar early in Wednesday's Asia session as midterm results landed, leaving a false break of the range top. Price is now back at Monday's 157.60 range floor, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Tuesday rally, and sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 156.96
Resistance: 158.00, 158.25, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.60 range floor exposes the 157.47 weekly open and Friday's 156.96 swing low
A recovery above the 158.00 round number returns price to the upper half of the week's range, with the 158.25 asia low next as resistance
A return toward the 158.77 week high would bring Japan's MoF intervention rhetoric back into focus
Senate race calls, ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Breakout from Monday's 157.60–158.00 range into higher highs and higher lows; first pullback holding near EMA20.
From the 157.47 weekly open, Monday held a tight 157.60–158.00 box before Tuesday's London session cleared the monday high. NY extended the move to a 158.77 week high on the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, through the 158.60 range top flagged for this pair. Into the midterm results the pair pulled back to a 158.44 late-NY low, holding just above EMA20 near 158.38 and the Tuesday higher-lows line, with RSI(14) easing from the high 60s to the low 60s.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 157.99
Resistance: 158.60, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below 158.60 and then the 158.44 late-NY low would leave the range-top break unconfirmed
A close under EMA20 and the Tuesday higher-lows line puts the 50–61.8% of the Tuesday impulse (158.26–158.14) in play
A return below the 157.99 monday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.77 week high opens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric has been concentrated
Senate control call overnight, then ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read