157.40–158.77 weekly range, sequence of lower highs, price in the lower third.
The pair has traded a 157.40 weekly low to 158.77 week high box since Tuesday's rally, with each rebound failing lower: 158.77, then 158.67 Wednesday, then 158.50 Thursday. Thursday's lower high met rejection in the NY session as the tech sell-off, falling yields and the hawkish BoJ minutes drove a yen bid, retracing about 78.6% of Wednesday's rally off the 157.40 low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 157.93 and just above Thursday's NY low at 157.54, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet oversold.
Support: 157.54, 157.40
Resistance: 157.93, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.54 ny low exposes the 157.40 weekly low and range floor
Recovery above the 158.50 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the fading-range read
Price holding beneath the ema20 near 157.93 keeps rebounds capped inside the range
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.8%) is imminent and could test the 157.40 weekly low
Fri NFP 13:30 UTC and Ueda 16:00 GMT; a strong print pulls focus back toward the 158.77 week high
157.40–158.77 weekly range, compressing below a lower-high trendline.
USD/JPY has held a 157.40–158.77 range all week, setting lower highs since Tuesday's week high. Thursday's London rebound stalled at 158.50, the Thursday high. A sharp NY-session selloff erased it as yen demand returned on the chip sell-off and lower Treasury yields. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 158.00 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, holding above the Thursday low at 157.54, and the bounce has stalled just under the 38.2% retracement of that selloff near 157.90.
Support: 157.54, 157.40
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the week low at 157.40 breaks the range floor and the higher-low sequence from Wednesday
Recovery above EMA(20) at 158.00 and the 50% fib near 158.02 would neutralise Thursday's NY selloff; the lower-highs trendline near 158.45 and the Thursday high at 158.50 sit above
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 GMT) and Ueda's speech (Fri 16:00 GMT) could press price against the Thursday low
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC; a strong print reopens a test of the week high at 158.77, while a soft one shifts focus to the 157.40 floor
21:02 UTC
Range-bound, sequence of lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 41 · price 157.831
157.40–158.77 weekly range with highs compressing toward a lower-high trendline.
Since the Asia session drop on Wednesday, USD/JPY has traded inside a 157.40–158.77 range. The week high came during Tuesday's NY session, and highs have stepped lower since then (158.77, 158.67, 158.50), tracing a lower-highs trendline. In the first hour of NY on Thursday, price was rejected at the 158.50 lower high. The tech sell-off and softer Treasury yields drove a roughly 96-pip slide to the 157.54 Thursday low. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 158.01, with RSI(14) around 41. It is close to the 31% retracement of the week high-to-low swing, and the week open at 157.47 and week low at 157.40 form the range floor beneath.
Support: 157.54, 157.47, 157.40
Resistance: 158.01, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.40 week low breaks the weekly range floor; the week open at 157.47 sits just above it
H1 close above the 158.50 lower high and the lower-highs trendline negates the compression read and reopens the 158.77 week high
Recovery back above the ema20 near 158.01 would show the Thursday low holding as a higher low inside the range
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session and London open
US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday, followed by BoJ Governor Ueda at 16:00 GMT, could materially shift this read and test either edge of the range
157.40–158.77 range with lower highs and a flat floor.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.40–158.77 range since Tuesday's week high. Each rally has capped lower, at 158.67 on Wednesday and then a 158.50 lower high on Thursday, which traces a descending line of lower highs. Thursday's NY-session drop erased the London rally and printed a 157.54 Thursday low just above the 157.47 weekly open and the 157.40 weekly low, on risk-off yen demand and falling Treasury yields. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 158.03 with RSI(14) at 46, and the rebound is stalling inside the lower half of the Tue–Wed drop fib.
Support: 157.54, 157.47, 157.40
Resistance: 158.03, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.40 weekly low breaks the range floor; holding the thu low keeps lows flat against falling highs
A close back above ema20 at 158.03 and then the 158.50 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.77 week high
Japan Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 GMT and Ueda's Friday 16:00 GMT speech could materially shift this read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the main range-edge catalyst; Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
19:02 UTC
Range, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 157.71
157.40–158.77 weekly range with lower highs since Tuesday.
USD/JPY has held a 157.40–158.77 range since Tuesday's week high, with each rebound since stopping lower, at 158.67 Wednesday and 158.50 Thursday, along the lower-highs line. Thursday's recovery on the firm US claims print met rejection at the 158.50 lower high and reversed into the NY session as the risk-off yen bid returned. That move took price back below the ema20 near 157.98 with RSI(14) near 41. The Thursday sell-off fib 50% near 158.02 overlaps the ema20, and the thu low at 157.54 is the nearest floor above the 157.40 week low.
Support: 157.54, 157.40
Resistance: 157.98, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.40 week low breaks the range floor and the Wednesday low
Recovery above the 158.50 lower high negates the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.77 week high
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 157.98 keeps the Thursday sell-off fib 50% as a cap
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT, Ueda Fri 16:00 GMT and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Range with lower highs, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 157.616
157.40–158.77 weekly range, lower highs since Tuesday's week high.
USD/JPY has held a 157.40–158.77 range since Tuesday's week high. Each rebound has capped lower along a lower-highs line, at 158.67 Wednesday and the 158.50 Thu high today. Thursday's London rally faded through NY hours despite the 189K claims beat. That took price back below EMA(20) near 158.00 and through the 78.6% of the Wednesday recovery fib to test the Monday low at 157.60, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 157.40
Resistance: 158.00, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the Monday low at 157.60 exposes the weekly open at 157.47 and the week low at 157.40, Wednesday's post-midterm extreme
A recovery back above EMA(20) at 158.00 would neutralise the NY-session rejection
A break of the lower-highs line and the Thu high at 158.50 reopens the week high at 158.77
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 GMT, f/c 3.8%), Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC Fri) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
157.40–158.77 weekly range; lower highs, price back below EMA(20).
Thursday's climb to the 158.50 thu high came on the claims and productivity beats. The NY session then rejected it and erased the gain, dropping price back under EMA(20) near 158.11 to 157.75, with the ny low at 157.69. Highs have stepped down from Tuesday's 158.77 week high through 158.67 and 158.50, while Wednesday's post-midterm week low at 157.40 still anchors the range floor. Price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of Wednesday's 157.40–158.67 rebound, with RSI(14) near 42 and not yet oversold.
Support: 157.69, 157.40
Resistance: 158.11, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.69 ny low exposes the 157.40 week low and the 78.6% level of the Wednesday rebound fib
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 158.11 and the lower-highs trendline near 158.50 would neutralise the lower-high read
A break of the 158.77 week high would take price into the 159.00 intervention-warning zone
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT tonight (f/c 3.8%) could shift the read during the Asia session
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) with AHE, plus Ueda at 16:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower highs from 158.77, higher lows from 157.40.
Since the 157.47 weekly open, USD/JPY has formed a contracting range. Highs are stepping lower from Tuesday's 158.77 week high to 158.67 on Wednesday and 158.50 for the Thursday high, while lows step higher from Wednesday's 157.40 weekly low after the election sell-off. Thursday's London-led rebound off the Tuesday-Wednesday drop was reversed in two NY-session bars to a 157.69 session low, as the soft Q3 unit labour costs tempered the hawkish US data read. Price now sits below the ema20 near 158.12 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.69, 157.40
Resistance: 158.12, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.69 session low exposes the higher-lows line and the 157.40 weekly low
Recovery through the ema20 at 158.12 and above the 158.50 Thursday high would break the lower-highs sequence and reopen the 158.77 week high
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC tonight could test either edge of the contracting range
US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) and Ueda (Fri 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range-bound, contracting from both sides · RSI 47 · price 158.043
Lower highs from 158.77 against higher lows from 157.40, symmetric squeeze.
Since Sunday's open near 157.47, the week has swung between Tuesday's 158.77 weekly high and Wednesday's 157.40 weekly low, which came on the midterm-driven USD selloff. Highs have stepped down to 158.67 and then today's 158.50 thu high, while lows have stepped up to the 157.78 thu low. That low was set in the Asia session on hawkish BoJ minutes and softer yields, and London rebuilt the bid from there. In the first hours of NY, price was rejected from 158.50 despite the claims beat and slipped back under the EMA(20) near 158.20. The NY low at 157.98 now sits near the 50% retracement of Wednesday's rebound, with RSI(14) flat in the high 40s.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.20, 158.50, 158.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 157.78 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.40 weekly low back in play
Hourly close above 158.50 thu high clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.77 weekly high
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 158.20 keeps the NY low at 157.98 exposed
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC) and Ueda (Fri 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US NFP Fri 13:30 GMT is the main event risk for a break out of the 157.40–158.77 range
Higher lows vs lower highs, compression inside 157.40–158.77.
The pair has been contained between Tuesday's 158.77 week high and Wednesday's 157.40 week low, just below the 157.47 weekly open, after the midterm-driven USD drop in Asia hours. Thursday's BoJ-minutes dip held at 157.78, a higher low, and the rebound on the claims and productivity beats has lifted price back above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 60. Swing highs are stepping lower from 158.77 to 158.67, and the 158.50 thu high is capping the current leg.
Support: 158.23, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.50, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.50 thu high reopens the 158.67–158.77 week high band; the 159.00 round number is flagged for intervention risk
Failure to hold 157.78 thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 157.40 week low
Loss of the ema20 near 158.23 would show the Thursday rebound stalling inside the range
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC and Ueda Fri 16:00 UTC could shift the read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the likely trigger for a break of the compression
Lower highs off the week high, higher lows off the week low.
Tuesday's week high at 158.77 gave way in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar, with price dropping to the 157.40 week low before NY hours recovered it to a 158.67 wed high. Thursday's Asia dip on the hawkish BoJ minutes held at a higher thu low of 157.78, and London-NY trade has since lifted price back above ema20 (~158.25) to retest the 158.50 session high. The result is a narrowing band of lower highs and higher lows, with price near the 76.4% retracement of the midterm drop and RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 158.25, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.50, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.50 session high and the 158.67 wed high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.77 week high back in play
Loss of ema20 near 158.25 points to a return toward the 157.78 thu low; a break there ends the higher-lows read
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC and Friday's NFP could decide which edge of the 157.40–158.77 range gives way
Any approach toward 159.00 brings intervention headlines into the picture above the week high
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, contracting · RSI 55 · price 158.377
Lower highs from 158.77 vs higher lows from 157.40.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 158.77 week high. Wednesday's Asia-session drop on the Democratic midterm sweep found demand at the 157.40 week low, and Thursday's Asia dip after the hawkish BoJ Minutes held higher at the 157.78 thu low. London has since lifted price back above EMA(20) near 158.23 and the 61.8% retrace of the Tue-Wed drop. RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s, and price is now pressing today's day high at 158.43, under the wed high at 158.67.
Support: 158.23, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.43, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.67 wed high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 158.77 week high
Failure to hold the 157.78 thu low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.40 week low
Pullbacks holding ema20 at 158.23 keep the London recovery intact; a close back below it returns price to mid-range
US Jobless Claims/ULC at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT today could test the day high
Japan Labor Cash Earnings tonight 23:30 GMT, then NFP and Ueda on Friday, are the likely catalysts to resolve the compression
Lower high vs higher low, converging range 157.40–158.77.
USDJPY has compressed between the 157.40 week low and the 158.77 week high. The low came in Wednesday's Asia-session post-midterm drop, the high in Tuesday's NY session, and the 158.67 Wed high has since printed a lower high. Thursday's Asian dip, on hawkish BoJ Minutes and a softer USD, held 157.78 as a higher low. Since the London open, price has rebounded back above the EMA(20) near 158.20, with RSI(14) recovering into the mid-50s.
Support: 158.20, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.67 Wed high and the 158.77 week high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.78 higher low reopens the 157.40 week low
Loss of the EMA(20) near 158.20 returns price to the middle of the range
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 GMT could shift this read during NY hours
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT and Friday's NFP are the next range-break risks
10:02 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 52 · price 158.30
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 157.40–158.77.
USD/JPY has held a 157.40–158.77 range since Tuesday's NY-session week high. Wednesday's Asia-session drop to the 157.40 week low came on the post-midterm dollar slide and almost fully reversed, then capped at a lower high of 158.67. Thursday's Asia dip, as hawkish BoJ minutes underpinned the yen, held a higher low at 157.78, near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Wednesday rally fib. The London-open rebound has put price back above EMA(20) near 158.18, with RSI(14) mid-cycle around 52 as the lower highs and higher lows converge.
Support: 158.18, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.77 week high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 157.78 higher low reopens the 157.40 week low
Loss of EMA(20) at 158.18 would show the London-open rebound fading
BoE at 12:00 GMT, then US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack around 13:30–13:50 GMT, could jolt the range
Japan wages at 23:30 GMT and Friday's NFP are the next USD/JPY catalysts
Lower high 158.67 and higher low 157.78 inside the 157.40–158.77 week range.
The Monday–Tuesday grind from the 157.46 weekly open topped at the 158.77 week high late in Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's Asia-session drop on midterm-driven USD selling briefly undercut the open to a 157.40 week low before London and NY recovered it into a 158.67 lower high. Thursday's Asia dip after hawkish BoJ minutes held a 157.78 higher low, within the 61.8–78.6% zone of Wednesday's rebound, and London has lifted price back above a flat EMA(20) at 158.17, with lower highs and higher lows compressing the range under the 158.43 day high (RSI(14) ~53, ATR ~19 pips).
Support: 158.17, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.43, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.43 day high reopens the 158.67 lower high and 158.77 week high
Loss of the 157.78 higher low breaks the contraction and exposes the 157.40 week low
Repeated closes below EMA(20) at 158.17 would shift the read back to the lower half of the range
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could push price through the range edges
Japan wage data at 23:30 UTC, then Friday's NFP and Ueda, are the larger catalysts for a break of the higher lows or lower highs
Lower highs from 158.77 against higher lows from 157.40; narrowing range 157.78–158.43.
USDJPY has compressed since Tuesday's NY-session push to the 158.77 week high. Lower highs at 158.67 (wed high) and 158.43 are converging with higher lows at the 157.40 week low and today's 157.78 Asia-session low. Both sharp drops came in Asia hours, Wednesday on the post-midterm USD sell-off and today on the hawkish BoJ minutes, and London/NY recovered each time. Price is back on the flat EMA cluster near 158.15 and the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday drop, with RSI(14) near 55 and no momentum extreme.
Support: 158.15, 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.43, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.43 lower high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 158.67 wed high and 158.77 week high back in view
Failure to hold the 157.78 higher low breaks the rising higher-low line, exposing the 157.40 week low
Holding above the ema cluster near 158.15 into London keeps the 61.8% Wednesday-drop retracement in play as a pivot
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT could break the compression
Ueda speech and US NFP on Friday are the larger event risks to this read
07:01 UTC
Range-bound, downside momentum building · RSI 38 · price 157.916
Lower high at 158.67 under week high 158.77; price below EMA20 inside 157.40–158.77 range.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.47 weekly open to a 158.77 week high into Tuesday's NY session. The Democratic midterm sweep and lower yields then drove a 137-pip Asia-session drop on Wednesday to the 157.40 weekly low. London and NY rebuilt the move, but it stalled at a 158.67 lower high, and Thursday's Asia session slipped back below EMA(20) to a 157.78 Asia low. Price is sitting near the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's rebound, around 157.88, with RSI(14) down at 38 and the hourly EMA(20) cycle rolling over.
Support: 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.15, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.78 asia low opens the path back to the 157.40 weekly low / 50-day SMA area
Recovery above ema20 near 158.15 would neutralise the latest leg lower
A break above the 158.77 week high would void the lower high read; intervention-risk zone 159.00 sits just above
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could reshape the NY session
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT, then NFP and Ueda on Friday, are the main risks to the range
Lower high at 158.67 inside the 157.40–158.77 weekly range.
After Tuesday's London-to-NY run to the 158.77 week high, the pair dropped to the 157.40 weekly low in Wednesday's Asia session on the Democratic sweep and broad USD selling. The NY-session rebound stalled at a 158.67 lower high, and hawkish BoJ minutes have helped pull price back through today's Asia session to the 61.8% retracement of that rebound near 157.88. Price now sits just above the 157.78 Asia low, below a rolling-over EMA(20) near 158.16, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 157.78, 157.40
Resistance: 158.16, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.78 Asia low exposes the 157.40 weekly low; a break there confirms a lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 near 158.16 and then the 158.67 lower high would invalidate the fading-range read and reopen the 158.77 week high
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC today could shift the read ahead of Friday's NFP
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT tonight (f/c 3.8%) could move the yen at the next Asia open
157.40–158.77 weekly range, lower high Wed, higher low in Asia.
From the 157.47 week open the pair pushed to a 158.77 week high during Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's post-midterm USD selloff in Asia hit a 157.40 week low before an ADP beat drove a full recovery to a 158.67 lower high, a rejection beneath Tuesday's peak. This Asia session has slipped back under the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) on hawkish BoJ Minutes, with RSI(14) near 35 and the 157.78 Asia low sitting just above the higher lows line and the Wed rally fib 61.8% near 157.88.
Support: 157.78, 157.47, 157.40
Resistance: 158.00, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.78 Asia low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.47 week open and 157.40 week low
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and EMA(20) returns price to mid-range; a close above the 158.67 lower high and 158.77 week high breaks the lower highs line
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack 13:50 UTC could shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and Friday's NFP are the next range-break risks
157.40–158.77 weekly range; lower high at 158.67, Asia leg back below 158.00.
USD/JPY opened the week at 157.47 and pushed to a 158.77 week high through Tuesday's London-NY sessions. Wednesday's midterm-driven Asia session drop reached a 157.40 weekly low, and the NY session then recovered most of it before stalling at a 158.67 lower high. Hawkish BoJ minutes and a softer USD dragged price back through 158.00 in Thursday's Asia session and below the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's rebound, with RSI(14) near 31 and price under both EMA(20) and EMA(50), leaving the 157.60 swing lows as the first shelf above the weekly open and weekly low.
Support: 157.60, 157.47, 157.40
Resistance: 158.00, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.00 round number neutralises the Thursday Asia leg
Failure to hold the 157.60 swing lows exposes the 157.47 weekly open and 157.40 weekly low
A break below the 157.40 weekly low invalidates the range read
A move through the 158.67 lower high and 158.77 week high would reopen the range top
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (23:30 UTC), US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack (13:30–13:50 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday NFP
From the 157.47 weekly open, USDJPY pushed to a 158.77 week high in Tuesday's NY session. The Democratic midterm sweep then drove an Asia-session flush to the 157.40 weekly low on Wednesday, and the V-shaped recovery stalled at a 158.67 lower high during NY hours. Thursday's Asia session has slipped back below the EMA(20)/EMA(50) ema cluster near 158.23 after the hawkish BoJ Minutes, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. The 157.86–157.88 area, the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's recovery, has absorbed two tests so far.
Support: 157.86, 157.60, 157.40
Resistance: 158.23, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.86 61.8% fib exposes the 157.60 monday low, then the 157.40 weekly low
Recovery back above the 158.23 ema cluster and the lower highs line near 158.60 would break the lower-high sequence and put the 158.77 week high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, with Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could reset the range read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.8%) is a yen catalyst ahead of Friday's Ueda speech and NFP
157.40–158.77 weekly range; lower highs at 158.77, 158.67 and 158.56; price mid-range below EMA20.
From the 157.47 weekly open, Tuesday's London-to-NY advance set the week high at 158.77. Wednesday's Asia-session selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep briefly broke below Monday's lows to the wed low at 157.40. That false break was fully reclaimed by London, but rallies have since stalled at lower highs of 158.67 (wed high) and 158.56. Today's Asia pullback to the 157.86 session low leaves price under EMA20 near 158.30, with RSI(14) near 40 and price sitting on the 50% retracement of Wednesday's rebound.
Support: 157.75, 157.397
Resistance: 158.30, 158.67, 158.766
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.86 session low exposes the tue low at 157.75, then the wed low at 157.40
Recovery above EMA20 at 158.30 and the lower-high line puts the 158.67 wed high and 158.77 week high back in focus
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Thu 13:30 UTC, then Japan wages Thu 23:30 UTC, could break the range
Friday's NFP and Ueda's IMF speech carry the larger event risk for the 157.40–158.77 range
Intervention rhetoric near 158.6–159.0 has capped the week high so far
Lower highs under 158.77 inside the 157.40–158.77 week range.
USD/JPY opened the week at 157.47 and climbed through Monday and Tuesday on firm ISM and JOLTS data to a 158.77 week high. The Democratic midterm sweep then drove a sharp Asia-session drop to the 157.40 week low early Wednesday, and the London rebound stalled at the 158.67 wed high, a lower high under the peak. Price has slipped below EMA20 near 158.33 in today's Asia session and sits at the 38.2% retracement of that rebound, with RSI(14) near 41. The 158.00 area is the next support in focus: it is Monday's high and sits close to the 50% level.
Support: 158.00, 157.40
Resistance: 158.33, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close below 158.00 (monday high and 50% of the rebound) exposes the weekly open 157.47 and the 157.40 week low
Reclaim of ema20 near 158.33 and the lower-highs trendline near 158.6 reopens a test of the 158.67 wed high and 158.77 week high
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and Japan wage data (Thu 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Intervention rhetoric remains a factor on any approach toward the 158.77 week high
Compression between 158.17 and 158.67, lower high under the week high.
From the 157.47 weekly open, Tuesday's London-to-NY rally set the 158.77 week high on firm US data. The Democratic midterm sweep then knocked the pair to a 157.40 week low in Wednesday's Asia session. Most of that midterm drop was retraced by the NY open as the yen lagged broad USD weakness. Price has since compressed between the 158.17 swing low and a 158.67 lower high, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) drifting near 47.
Support: 158.17, 157.40
Resistance: 158.67, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.67 lower high and the 158.77 week high reopens the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention warnings have capped the move
Loss of the 158.17 swing low breaks the consolidation and puts the 157.40 week low back in play
US jobless claims and unit labor costs (Thu 13:30 UTC), then Friday's NFP, could materially shift this read
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Thu 23:30 UTC) is a yen-side risk to the range