21:03 UTC
Downtrend from July peak, rebound stalling in range · RSI 56 · price 157.706
Lower highs since late-July 163.99 peak; higher low off Sept low, 156.4–158.5 range below EMA50.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the late-July 163.99 peak. The 160.39 sept high and the 159.03 lower high both capped rebounds, and the recovery from the 152.89 sept low has stalled at the 50% fib of that decline, near the 158.45 range high. Over the past eight sessions price has held a 156.38–158.45 range just under a flattening EMA(50); Friday's NFP miss briefly pushed it below 157 before the US-Japan yield-gap bid pulled it back into the middle of the range.
Support: 156.375, 155.225, 152.886
Resistance: 158.451, 159.032, 160.391
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 156.38 range low breaks the rising support from the Sept low and exposes the 155.23 aug low
- Daily close above the 158.45 range high and EMA(50) reopens the 159.03 lower high and then the 160.39 sept high, which would break the lower-highs sequence
- BoJ Ueda speech Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed could resolve the range; intervention rhetoric becomes a factor on any push toward 158.70