21:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective rebound stalling · RSI 50 · price 157.837
Lower highs since late-July peak; compression under falling EMA(50).
Downtrend since the 163.99 late-July peak: the 160.39 sep high on Sep 2 was a lower high, the slide reached the 152.89 sep low on Sep 8, and the rebound stalled at the 159.03 lower high on Sep 24, just above the 50% fib near 158.44. For the past eight sessions price has compressed between a rising line from the Sep 14 low, with the 156.38 swing low beneath it, and a falling line from the Sep high, with the declining EMA(50) near 158.10 capping closes. Friday's NFP miss pushed price briefly to 156.95, but the dip almost fully reversed as crowded yen longs kept unwinding.
Support: 156.38, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.10, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the ema50 and the 159.03 lower high breaks the falling line from Sep 2 and the lower-high sequence
- Close below the rising line and the 156.38 swing low exposes the 155.23 aug low, then the 152.89 sep low
- ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; MoF intervention rhetoric near 158.00 is the noted brake on upside
- Daily RSI holding near 50 with EMA(50) still falling keeps the rebound corrective within the downtrend