21:03 UTC
Range after uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 56 · price 157.837
Lower high at 158.45 under 159.03 peak, higher low at 156.95.
The 152.89–159.03 rally has given way to a two-week range between the 156.38 range low and the 159.03 swing high. Price is compressing between a lower high at 158.45 and a higher low at the 156.95 nfp low. The NFP miss drove the dip to 156.95, which was fully rejected and closed back near 157.85. The range low sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the rally fib. ATR(14) near 55 pips is below the mid-window expansion, and EMA20 and EMA50 are flat and tightly stacked, consistent with a pending range resolution.
Support: 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 158.00, 158.45, 159.03
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 158.45 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 159.03 swing high.
- 158.00 intervention area: MoF/BoJ jawboning there could cap upside regardless of USD data.
- Sustained trade below the 156.95 nfp low shifts focus to the 156.38 range low and the rally fib 50% near 155.96.
- ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read.
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings Tue 23:30 UTC (f/c 3.7%) is the nearest yen-side risk.