Thin Sunday-open range 157.63–157.97 inside Friday's recovery.
USD/JPY fully reversed Friday's NFP dip to 156.95 (nfp low) as yen longs unwound, then went flat under the 157.91 post-NFP high into the close. The thin Sunday open saw a spike to 157.97 (sunday high) rejected and a dip to 157.63 (sunday low) bought back near the 23.6% fib of the rebound; price is pinned near EMA20 ahead of Tokyo.
Support: 157.63, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.63 sunday low opens the 38.2% fib near 157.54 and the 157.41 nfp hl (post-NFP higher low)
Close above the 157.91 post-NFP high and 157.97 sunday high puts the 158.00 round number in play, where intervention risk caps
Tokyo open liquidity may redefine the thin Sunday range
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Short-term pullback, lower highs since open · RSI 29 · price 157.661
Lower highs/lows in thin early Asia, below Friday NY range.
The Sunday open spike to 157.97 was rejected, and early Asia has printed lower highs down to a 157.63 session low, below Friday's 157.77–157.87 NY consolidation. RSI(14) is near 29. Price now sits just under the 23.6% retrace of Friday's 156.95–157.91 post-NFP recovery, with the 157.47 pre-NFP low below.
Support: 157.626, 157.47
Resistance: 157.914, 157.966
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.91 ny high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.63 session low exposes the 38.2% fib near 157.54, then the 157.47 pre-nfp low
Thin early-Asia liquidity; a London open push through the open spike at 157.97 brings 158.00 intervention rhetoric into play
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Drifting lower in early Asia, momentum soft · RSI 37 · price 157.713
Lower highs since the Asian spike high; Friday's late 157.77–157.91 consolidation floor lost.
Asia opened flat to Friday's close. A spike to the 157.97 asian high was rejected, and lower highs since have pushed price out of Friday's 157.77–157.91 consolidation below the post-NFP high. Price now sits on the 157.685 asian low, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the NFP-low rally, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 157.685, 157.42, 156.945
Resistance: 157.914, 157.966, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.685 asian low exposes the 157.42 swing low near the 50% fib
Reclaim of the 157.91 post-NFP high and the 157.97 asian high would void the asia lower highs read and bring 158.00 psych / intervention-risk zone back into play
Sustained trade under the 156.95 nfp low would mark a full unwind of the post-NFP recovery
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Sideways after full post-NFP recovery · RSI 42 · price 157.76
Tight 157.71–157.97 range at thin Asia open.
Friday's NFP miss dip to 156.95 was fully reversed to a post-NFP high at 157.91, with the yen again failing to hold gains. The thin Asia session open spiked to 157.97 and was rejected straight back. Price sits just above the 157.71 open low, slightly below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.71, 157.64, 157.41
Resistance: 157.91, 157.97, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 open low exposes the 157.64 swing low, then the 157.41 nfp hl
Close above the 157.91 post-nfp hi and 157.97 open spike reopens the 158.00 psych level, where intervention risk caps
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Liquidity stays thin until Tokyo picks up; open spike highs can be unreliable
Tight range at weekly open, inside Friday late NY range.
Thin early Asia session holding inside Friday's late NY range after the NFP drop to 156.95 fully reversed into the 157.91 post-nfp hi. An opening spike to the 157.97 session high met a rejection straight back to 157.80, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the 157.71 session low just beneath.
Support: 157.712, 157.637, 157.411
Resistance: 157.914, 157.966, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.97 session high reopens the 158.22 prior high, with intervention risk building near 158.00
Loss of the 157.71 session low and 157.64 swing low exposes the 157.41 base low near the 50% retrace of the NFP recovery
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Sideways after full NFP recovery, softening at Monday open · RSI 43 · price 157.758
Post-NFP higher low intact; thin early-Asia range 157.71–157.97 after a rejected spike.
USD/JPY fully retraced Friday's NFP-driven drop to 156.95, topping at the 157.91 NY high before ranging 157.79–157.87 into the close, consistent with the yen failing to hold gains on soft US data. The thin Monday open spiked to the 157.97 Asia high, was rejected just under 158.00, and price is now sitting on the 157.71 session low with RSI(14) near 43 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 157.71, 157.54, 157.41
Resistance: 157.91, 157.97, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.71 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.54 and the 157.41 post-NFP higher low
Close back above the 157.91 NY high and the 157.97 Asia high reopens 158.00 and the 158.22 Friday high, where intervention risk caps
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Tokyo cash open can extend or erase the 157.71–157.97 range
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Tight range below 157.97, testing weekly open low.
Weekly open in thin early-Asia trade. The open spike to 157.966 was rejected and price is back on the open low at 157.734, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43. Friday's NFP flush to the 156.945 NFP low was fully retraced to 157.914 as the yen failed to hold gains, then the move stalled in a 157.77–157.91 range.
Support: 157.734, 157.411, 156.945
Resistance: 157.966, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.734 open low opens the 38.2% fib near 157.54 and the 157.411 post-nfp hl
Close above the 157.966 open spike puts 158.00 psych and the 158.218 friday high back in play, where intervention risk caps
Early-Asia liquidity is thin, so wicks through levels may not hold until Tokyo fills in
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next major catalyst for the range
21:46 UTC
Flat after full post-NFP recovery · RSI 51 · price 157.815
Friday's NFP miss flushed USDJPY to 156.95, well below the 157.47 London low, but the move fully reversed into a 157.91 Friday high. Since then price has compressed between 157.77 and 157.91, and the thin Sunday weekly open is holding above its 157.73 open low with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 157.73, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 Friday high puts the 158.00 psych level and the 158.22 Asian high in play. Intervention risk near 158.00 is the flagged cap.
Failure to hold the 157.73 open low exposes the 157.64 swing low.
A break back under the 157.47 London low would take out the 50% of the NFP recovery fib near 157.43 and unwind the false break.
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read.
21:32 UTC
Flat after post-NFP recovery · RSI 61 · price 157.82
Tight 157.73–157.91 consolidation.
Sunday reopen, early Asia session on thin liquidity. Price is holding the 157.77–157.91 band built after Friday's NFP-miss dip to the 156.95 nfp low was fully reversed. The open low at 157.73 was filled within two bars, with RSI(14) near 61 and price sitting on EMA20, while the friday high at 157.91 and 158.00 psych (intervention-risk zone) sit overhead.
Support: 157.73, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the friday high at 157.91 puts 158.00 psych and the Friday Asia high (158.22) in play, where intervention rhetoric tends to cap
Failure to hold the 157.73 open low exposes the 157.54 fib 38.2% and the 157.47 pre-nfp low
Thin Sunday liquidity: the forming Asian range is the first real test of the post-NFP consolidation
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Tue 23:30 UTC) and MoF FX comments could shift the read on yen-long liquidation
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, high impact) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Sideways after full NFP-dip recovery · RSI 44 · price 157.779
Tight 157.76–157.88 range below post-NFP high, thin weekly open.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USD/JPY to 156.95, but the drop fully retraced to the 157.91 post-NFP high before the pair compressed in a 157.76–157.88 range into the close. The weekly open is thin early-Asia trade, with a 2-pip gap below Friday's 157.837 close and price sitting on the range low. RSI(14) is neutral near 44.
Support: 157.76, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.76 range low exposes the 157.64 swing low, near the 23.6% fib of the NFP rebound
Break of the 157.64 swing low brings the 157.54 38.2% fib and the 157.47 London low into play
Close above the 157.91 post-NFP high opens the 158.00 psych level, where intervention risk is flagged; prior high sits at 158.22
Tokyo open liquidity and Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from NFP low, tight late-NY range below session high.
The NFP miss knocked USDJPY through the London low at 157.47 to 156.95, but the break failed and the move fully reversed to a NY high of 157.91. The pair then compressed in a 10-pip range low to high (157.77–157.88) into the weekly close, sitting on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 157.77, 157.47, 156.945
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.91 NY high opens the 158.00 psych level, where intervention risk caps, then the 158.22 Asia high
Failure to hold the 157.77 range low exposes the 157.47 London low, near the 50% fib of the NFP rebound
Loss of the rising line off the NFP low would put the 156.95 low back in focus
Monday ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read